Macro Report

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Macro Report
VIETNAM ECONOMIC UPDATE - SEEKING FOR GROWTH SOLUTIONS - July 18 2019

Q2 GDP increased by 6.71% YoY, the lowest growth rate in eight quarters. Slower growth of the Manufacturing and Algriculture industries, which have the largest proportion in the economy, was the main reason for GDP deceleration. Some sectors of the Services and Construction industries maintained stable growth, and along with the positive growth of the Minning sector, helped GDP not decline too deeply.

18/07/2019

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VIETNAM FM MONITOR - Vietnam Financial and Monetary Market Monitor - June 2019

Different from being the strong economy of the US when the first trade war broke out in July 2018, it showed signs of slowing down when the second trade war happended in May 2019. Employment data was lower than expected and the inflation rate was far from the target of 2%, raising the forecast that Fed will lower interest rates in the meeting at the end of July 2019. US Government bond yields fell sharply, for all terms, with the 10-year bond yield close to 2% at the end of June 2019.

11/07/2019

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VIETNAM DATA RESPONSE – Quick Update of Macroeconomic data - June 2019
GDP increased by 6.71% YoY in Q2 and 6.76% YoY in the first six months of 2019, lower than the same period in 2018 of 7.08% YoY. The slowdown of the Manufacturing and Agricultural sectors, the two industries with the first and third largest proportions in the economy, was the main reason for declining growth.
The index of industrial production (IIP) of Manufacturing in the first six months increased by 10.8% YoY, lower than the same period last year of 12.7% YoY. The Electronics sector increased by only 3.5% YoY while the same period last year increased by 17.5% YoY. Basic Metal production increased by 40.1% YoY and the Petroleum refinery increased by 69.1% YoY (compared to the same period last year of 20.7% and 20.3% YoY respectively).

02/07/2019

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VIETNAM ECONOMIC UPDATE - Difficulties for growth in Quarter 2 - May 2019
Although the average selling price of rice in April and May was higher than that of the first quarter, Agriculture production in Q2 will almost certainly be low. The hot weather in Southern, and the unusual weather in Northern, Vietnam was the cause of decreasing production capacity and sales volume of rice in the winter-spring season. The production capacity of winter-spring rice decreased by 0.8 quintal/ha in the Southeast and 0.3 quintal/ha in Northern Vietnam. Due to the hot sun extending over a large area, the production of rice in the Mekong Delta decreased by 1.1 quintal/ha. According to the US Climate Forecast Center, a weak El Nino appeared in October 2018 and will likely last until June-July 2019. In Q1 2016, due to a strong El Nino effect, GDP of Agriculture decreased by 2.69%.

07/06/2019

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VIETNAM DATA RESPONSE – Quick Update of Macroeconomic data - Apr 2019

The increase of 9.3% YoY was not low compared to the first few months of 2019 as well as the same period of 2018. In the first four months of 2019, however, the total IIP grew by 9.2% YoY, significantly lower than 11.2% in the same period of 2018. The components of growth in 2019 changed only slightly since the Mining and quarrying sector remained fairly flat (4M 2018: -1.2% YoY). The Manufacturing sector grew at a relatively slow pace of 10.9% YoY (4M 2018: +14% YoY).

The Mining and quarrying sector in April grew by 2% YoY (4M 2018: -5% YoY) due to a strong increase in coal mining, reaching +13.9% YoY (4M 2018: +2.3% YoY). Year to date, coal mining increased by 13% YoY and petroleum exploration decreased by 4.1% YoY (4M 2018: +4.4% and -3.4% YoY, respectively). Output of Coal mining in the first four months was 15.8 million tonnes, up 12.8% YoY and most of this was for internal use

03/05/2019

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VIETNAM ECONOMIC UPDATE – Slow growth was a driver to reform - April 25 2019

Total GDP in Q1 2019 increased by 6.79% YoY, the lowest growth in six quarters. The Agriculture industry rose by 1.84% YoY, the lowest in eight quarters and the Manufacturing industry increased by 12.35% YoY, the lowest in seven quarters. It was not surprising because we had forecasted the result in February’s report.

19/04/2019

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VIETNAM ECONOMIC UPDATE - Industrials and Agriculture sector will drag down total growth - Mar 22 2019

Agriculture in the first two months of the year faced difficulties in both market situation and prices. Exports of key agricultural products, such as rice, vegetables, and coffee, decreased compared to the same period last year. Rice exports in the first two months decreased by 17.5% YoY (first two months of 2018: +30,5% YoY). Vegetables decreased by 14.4% YoY (first two months of 2018: +54.6% YoY). Coffee decreased by 26.9% YoY (first two months of 2018: -0.5% YoY)

22/03/2019

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