Company Report

At the current price, PLX is trading at 2019 level of 20.6x, which is equivalent to regional peers. We apply the SoTP method to estimate fair value of the stock price, with the target PE of 21x for the parent company thanks to its strong market position and 9-10x multiple for PLX subsidiaries. Accordingly, our 1-year target price arrives at VND 73,100 share, implying an upside of 14% from the current share price. Our rating for the stock is Outperform.

At the current price, VGC is trading at a 2019 and 2020 PERs of 13.5x and 12.1x respectively. We maintain our Outperform rating for the stock, with a 1- year target price of VND 22,800/share, implying an upside of 13.2% from the current price. We think that encouraging earnings growth in 2019, as well as upcoming government divestment, would together be supportive catalysts for the stock over the next 12 months.

At the current price of VND 55,000, shares of FRT are trading at 2019 and 2020 forward PER levels of 9.4x and 9.2x respectively. We apply a target PER of 10x for FRT to arrive at a price of VND 58,330/share, a 6.1% upside. Our current recommendation is MARKET PERFORM rating for the stock in 2019.

We raise our 12-month target price to VND81,300, based on an unchanged PBR target of 3.0x applied to our 2020E BVPS (previously VND68,600 using 2019E BVPS), for a potential upside of 8.4% from the current price of VND75,000. Please note that this does not consider the cash dividend of 8% at par in 2019 and 2020 that we had previously assumed. Given the reduced potential upside, we downgrade our rating from Buy to Market Perform.

We revised upwards our forecast for ACB 2019 PBT to VND 7.58 tn, at +18.7% YoY and +2.9%, elevated compared to our previous forecast of VND 7.37 tn. This raised outlook comes from higher forecasts of credit growth from the previous 13% YoY to 16.5% YoY. For 2020, we expect ACB to earn VND 8.79 tn of PBT at +16% YoY, given credit and deposit growing by 16% YoY and 15% YoY respectively. Using average BVPS of 2019F & 2020F and the target PBR of 1.8x, we arrive at a 1Y target price of VND 44,000 per share, which is equivalent to a dynamic upside of 46.2% from the current price. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock.

At the moment, GMD is trading at 2019F and 2020F forward PER metrics of 14.7x and 13.2x respectively, which is slightly lower than GMD’s historical PE range of 14-15x. 2019F and 2020F P/B ratio are estimated at 1.35x and 1.32x respectively. We are waiting for the mid-year report to be released, of which will spur an update from us, and might spark a revision of our forecast accordingly.

At the current price of VND 23,300 per share, LTG is being traded at a 2019 PER of 4.2x on total earnings and 5.7x on core earnings. We think that the main business (CPC – making up 53% of net sales and 77% of gross profit in 2018) will face more competition from cheaper generic products imported from China, while the improvement in rice and seed businesses may not be adequate to offset the decline in CPC earnings in the near term. In the longer term, LTG growth will depend on the potential of the rice business, which is quite uncertain at the moment. Nevertheless, LTG is traded at a cheaper valuation compared with industry peers, with a decent dividend yield (6.9%). For valuation, we use a target PER of 6x, lower than the peer average owing to high D/E ratio amid thin net profit margin. As such, we arrive at 1Y target price of VND 25,500, which is equivalent an upside of 9% from the current price and a MARKET PERFORMANCE rating.

In 2018, Vicem delivered a net sales of VND 27.9 tn, an increase by 11.3% fueled by the increase of 9% in sales volume. Although the gross margin declined slightly by 0.8 ppts to 17.6% due to the increase in the coal price by 15%, PBT in 2018 attained strong growth of 20.6% thanks to significant savings in financial expenses. More specifically, financial expenses dropped to VND 986 bn from VND 1.496 tn in 2017, mainly thanks to a net exchange rate gain of VND 29 bn, compared to an exchange rate loss of VND 563 bn in 2017. In addition, the company’s debt repayment of VND 3.3 tn in 2018 also helped to cut interest rate expenses by VND 146 bn in 2018 compared to 2017.

We maintain our 20x PE target for 2020, and revise upwards our target price for VTP to VND 170,900/share (an upside of 26%) as we roll forward our valuation using our 2020 earnings estimate, and reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for the stock. In a nutshell, we believe the market reaction is overblown regarding the news of the new businesses, and if continues, we feel this creates a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

At the current price, AST is trading at 2019F and 2020F forward PE levels of 16.6x and 13.3x respectively. Recently, the stock has reached our target price as of our last report. With the recent development in AST (withdrawal from A la Carte Ha Long project, and acquisition of the duty-free business), the company now looks more complete, and less risky than before. We also highly appreciate the management’s transparency, and acting in benefit of the shareholders.

Based on audited financial statements, 2018 BVPS and EPS of BVH were VND 22,065 and VND 1,612 respectively. At the current price of VND 81,300 per share, the stock is trading at 2018 PBR and PER of 3.7x and 50.4x respectively. Based on the company’s 2019 plan, 2019 BVPS and EPS of BVH on a respective basis are estimated at VND 22,748 and VND 1,676, with current PBR and PER at 3.57x and 48.5x. We estimate that if the capital issuance is implemented in 2H 2019, at the price equal to 3 times BVPS as of June 2019 at VND67,220 per share, BVH would have the proceeds of VND 2.785 tn. 2019F BVPS would pop up at +11% to VND 25,231. The PBR at current price would then be 3.22x.

At the current price, VGC is trading at 2019 PER of 13.6x. Our rating for the stock is Outperform, with a 1 year target price of VND 23,600/share, imlying an upside of 16% from the current price. We think that encouraging earnings growth in 2019, as well as the government divestment, would together be supportive catalysts for the stock in the next 12 months. Used to be mainly regarded as a construction material manufacturer, VGC should be rather viewed as a property developer in the next 12 months given the tremendous growth of the industrial park segment and the expected contribution of around 60% of consolidated PBT in 2019.

YTD (January 1st – May 19th 2019), tapped volume and purchased volume reached 3,055 tons (-7% YoY) and 4,030 tons (+22% YoY) respectively. The TOCOM rubber price surged from JPY 175/kg to JPY 239/kg despite weak demand from China on the back of the US-China trade war. The uptrend was particularly intense in May (from JPY 189/kg to JPY 239/kg) due to a temporary shortage of natural rubber.