Monthly Market Outlook

Vietnam’s economy remains positioned for robust growth in 2026, shifting toward one driven by public investment and strong FDI inflows, supported by intensified efforts to resolve long stalled projects. The new cabinet has shifted its focus from policy design to disciplined execution and decisive administrative reform, targeting a reduction of at least 30% of business conditions to improve efficiency and unlock growth potential. Despite rising cost pressures from elevated oil prices, the government continues to prioritize a coordinated mix of expansionary fiscal policy and flexible monetary management to keep inflation anchored around 4.5%, thereby laying a solid foundation for a stronger growth acceleration phase in 2027–2030.

Following the sharp correction in March, the Vietnamese equity market stabilized and rebounded strongly in April. The recovery was underpinned by a more constructive global risk environment, FTSE Russell’s confirmation of Vietnam’s Emerging Market upgrade trajectory, solid 1Q26 earnings releases, and supportive domestic policy guidance. Together, these factors contributed to a clear improvement in investor sentiment.

However, the breadth of the rebound remained limited. Index performance was heavily concentrated in large cap real estate stocks, particularly the Vingroup complex. Excluding these names, the VNIndex was broadly flat. Market liquidity moderated compared with the prior month, while foreign investors continued to record net selling. These dynamics suggest that, despite improved sentiment, capital deployment remains cautious and selective rather than broad based.

Looking ahead, we expect the market to transition into a more defensive consolidation phase. Early April may see selective support from solid 1Q26 earnings expectations and improved policy clarity following the formation of the new government, and ongoing efforts toward de‑escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, upside momentum is likely to moderate toward the latter part of the month, in line with historical seasonality, as April has typically exhibited a lower probability of positive returns.

Near-term risks warrant a cautious stance. Domestically, interest rates have risen by approximately 300bps since 4Q25 and are expected to peak by mid-2026. At the same time, earnings growth may moderate in 2Q26, reflecting higher input costs, tighter financial conditions, and a higher base effect in 2Q25.

From a strategic perspective, the medium-term outlook remains constructive. Vietnam’s upgrade to FTSE Secondary Emerging Market status, effective 21 September 2026, represents a key structural milestone and is expected to attract approximately USD 1.5bn in cumulative inflows. At the corporate level, leading banks, securities firms, and consumer companies are guiding for 10-30% year-on-year earnings growth in 2026, supporting medium-term earnings visibility.

Against this backdrop, we recommend a selective, quality-biased investment approach, focusing on companies with (i) strong earnings growth in 1Q26 and resilient momentum into 2Q, (ii) robust balance sheets with net cash positions, and (iii) clear exposure to upgrade-related capital flows. Our preferred picks for the month include HPG, MSN, VCB, FPT, PVT, DPR, VHC, and DCM.

Vietnam’s early‑2026 macro trajectory suggests a two‑speed recovery. Industrial output is rebounding on firmer external demand (IIP +10.4% YoY), while domestic consumption remains subdued with real retail sales up only 4.5%. Investment continues to underpin growth, supported by robust public capex disbursement and sustained realized FDI, providing a stable base for the expansion.

Near‑term inflation pressures stem from the recent energy price shock following two sizeable fuel price adjustments. Even so, full‑year CPI is still expected to remain within the Government’s 4.0–4.5% target band. In this context, the State Bank of Vietnam is likely to prioritize FX stability and credit allocation over immediate policy tightening.

Market valuations turning more compelling after the early‑March pullback. 1Q26 earnings visibility has improved across several key cohorts, while many corporates are setting 20–30% full‑year profit growth targets, reinforcing the fundamental backdrop.

The market‑upgrade trajectory remains the dominant catalyst. With FTSE’s decision due on April 7, 2026, Vietnam has a high probability of inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Index by September, a development that could channel meaningful foreign inflows into large caps such as VIC, HPG, FPT, VHM, and VCB.

Historical patterns support a “patience premium” pattern: sharp weekly drawdowns have typically been followed by elevated recovery probabilities, an effect that is further buttressed by March’s favorable seasonality. Key risks to monitor include system liquidity conditions and a narrowing equity earnings‑yield vs. deposit‑rate differential, which compresses valuation buffers.

Porfolio positioning should emphasize commodity beneficiaries, names with strong 1Q earnings cadence, upgrade‑linked leaders, and defensives. Within this construct, VNM, HPG, and MSN stand out as high‑conviction opportunities.

Vietnam enters 2026 with exceptional political stability and clear policy continuity following the 14th Party Congress. The Government’s stance is firmly execution driven, with predefined sectoral priorities and a formal Action Plan anchoring accountability. Policy direction reinforces a technology led growth model, deeper private sector participation, and accelerated institutional upgrading.

The 2026 Action Plan maintains an ambitious 10% GDP growth target, supported by productivity gains, structural bottleneck removal, and expansion in high skill, tech intensive industries. FDI strategy is becoming more selective, emphasizing technology transfer, sustainability, and stronger domestic linkages. Decree 20/2026 operationalizes private sector reform through targeted tax incentives, improved land access, and digital enablement for SMEs. Macro conditions remain stable, and recent liquidity volatility appears technical rather than systemic. Capital market reforms continue to enhance foreign investor access, improving the case for FTSE Secondary EM inclusion (2025) and MSCI Watchlist consideration (2026).

Corporate earnings strengthened sharply in 4Q25, with HOSE NPATMI up 44.7% YoY, led by banks and property, alongside broad support from Oil & Gas, Financial Services, Retail, and Materials. Market performance started 2026 strongly before consolidating in late January–early February, with improving breadth across 2025 laggard sectors. Seasonal patterns around Tet remain supportive, reinforced by constructive 2026 earnings guidance. Preferred positioning for the near term includes consumer names, high net cash companies, construction materials, selected commodity exposures, and banks on a selective basis.

Our top calls include: MSN, VNM, MWG, PNJ, DCM, PHR, MBB, HPG and HT1.

Vietnam’s economy maintained strong momentum in November, supported by manufacturing, investment, and services, while inflation stayed contained, creating a favorable policy backdrop. SBV ’s recent liquidity actions, including an OMO rate hike and FX swap, reflect a proactive approach to stabilizing FX and credit conditions rather than signaling a policy shift.

Looking ahead, Q4 GDP is projected at around 8.2% YoY, with full-year growth near 8% in 2025. Longer term, Vietnam targets double-digit GDP growth through 2030, driven by structural reforms, robust FDI, and infrastructure acceleration.

Equity valuations remain attractive: The VNIndex target for 2026 is 1,920 points, supported by earnings growth of 14.5% that is outpacing regional peers. The 2026 forward P/E of 12.7x is below historical averages and.

Foreign selling pressure is easing, and capital market reforms such as simplified account opening, no pre-funding solution, faster IPO-to-listing, and the KRX system rollout will deepen liquidity. Notably, enabling broader access to global brokers with the introduction of a VSDC-operated Straight-Through Processing (STP) system, integrated with SWIFT messaging would be the key development. This solution automates payments and securities transactions with minimal manual intervention, enabling faster settlement cycles and significantly streamlining back-office operations—effectively transitioning from high-touch to low-touch processes. An FTSE market upgrade could attract USD 1.5 billion in passive ETF flows.

Sector opportunities include banking (+16% earnings growth), consumer stocks benefiting from tax policy and expansion, infrastructure and construction materials riding public investment, policy beneficiaries like fertilizer and petroleum, and technology poised for a rebound in 2026.

•           Vietnam enters November with solid macro momentum. October data showed broad-based strength: industrial production rose 11.4% YoY, exports expanded by 17.5%, and disbursed FDI reached USD 21.3 bn. Inflation remained well-contained, with CPI up 3.27% YoY and core inflation still below the SBV’s policy threshold. Looking ahead, the Government has set an ambitious 10% GDP growth target for 2026, anchored by a substantial public investment plan of USD 315 bn for 2026–2030 — up 150% vs. the prior 5-year period. Priorities include strategic infrastructure and digital transformation.

•           Despite resilient macro fundamentals, the equity market entered a corrective phase in October. The VNIndex declined 1.33% MoM to close at 1,639, marking a 7% pullback from its recent high. Foreign investors remained net sellers for the third straight month, bringing YTD outflows to VND 120 tn (USD 4.5 bn). Market liquidity also softened, driven partly by capital rotation into a busy IPO calendar. Meanwhile, interest rates edged higher, reflecting seasonal credit demand rather than a shift in monetary policy stance.

•           Amid the market correction, 3Q25 corporate earnings delivered a notable upside surprise. Aggregate net profit grew 30% YoY, exceeding consensus expectations with Banks (+24% YoY) and Financial Services (+178% YoY) led the charge. Consumer names also outperformed, with Retail maintaining strong momentum and F&B showing early signs of recovery. Notably, earnings breadth expanded beyond core sectors — Materials, Information Technology, and Chemicals/Fertilizers posted solid results, driven by favorable input costs or ramp-up of new projects.

•           Looking ahead, we expect the market to gradually shift focus toward the 2026 outlook. Key catalysts include the Government’s pro-growth agenda, an accommodative interest rate environment, easing FX pressures, and continued domestic demand stimulus.

•           While risks persist — including weak liquidity, rising interest rates, and capital fragmentation from elevated IPO activity — the market’s 2026 forward P/E of ~12x remains below its long-term average. This implies attractive upside potential should the earnings growth materialize. Historically, November has often marked a cyclical bottom, and 2025 could follow that trend as investors begin to price in the strong 2026 growth outlook.

•           SSI Research maintains a positive earnings outlook, projecting market-wide profit growth of 15.2% in 2025 and 15.1% in 2026. In the near term, sectors with strong 4Q25 earnings visibility include Banks, Materials, Real Estate, Brokerage, and Retail.

Vietnam’s economy continued its strong rebound in August, with broad-based growth across manufacturing, consumption, and investment. The government’s coordinated policy mix—spanning monetary flexibility, fiscal expansion, and infrastructure acceleration is reinforcing investor confidence. While inflation and FX volatility require monitoring, the overall environment in August remains highly attractive for medium to long-term capital deployment.

Vietnam’s equity market has stormed ahead in 2025, with the VN-Index up 32.8% year-to-date and August delivering its biggest monthly surge since mid-2020. Fueled by a surge of domestic retail inflows). Market liquidity has exploded in both basic market and derivative market, magnifying both upside runs and volatility.

Looking into September, two key catalysts provide support: the anticipated FED rate cut on 17 September and emerging market upgrade on October 8^th. However, the VN-Index can face rising correction risks in late September–October due to currency pressure, low earnings season in the third quarter, and profit-taking pressure as seen in the last 4 years, especially after a rally of over 50% since the bottom in Apr 2025.

Even with near-term headwinds, Vietnam’s equity yield remains attractive compared to bank deposit rates and real estate rental yields. As a result, a sharp market correction if any could present opportunities to accumulate stocks for a longer-term investment perspective, considering (1) Vietnam's ambitious projected double-digit GDP growth over the next 5–10 years, (2) solid earnings outlook of over 14%/year in 2025-2026, (3) market upgrade prospect, and (4) a supportive monetary policy.

Investment themes: Dividend stocks and rotation theme

Short-term stock ideas during September 2025: HPG, NT2, DCM, NLG, VHC and TLG.

SSI A-class portfolio rebalancing during September 2025: HPG, NLG, STB, VHC, and DGC.

Vietnam's macroeconomic data in May continued to show strong growth momentum, with a clear recovery in traditional growth drivers. We believe that Q2 GDP is on track for a 7.5% YoY growth.  However, tariffs and exchange rates remain key risk factors that warrant close monitoring.

Vietnam’s stock market delivered an impressive performance, reaching a new 3-year high. As of the May 30th, the VNIndex stood at 1,332.6 points, up 106 points (+8.67%) from the previous month, marking the strongest monthly gain since July 2023. The rally was led by sectors such as Real Estate, Tourism & Entertainment, and Chemicals. Market liquidity remained robust, easing only 7% from the unusually high level in April. This helped mid-cap stocks outperform blue-chips consistent with our previous forecast.

Looking ahead to June, we anticipate that selling pressure may intensify following the market’s approximately 22% rebound from the early-April low—particularly among stocks that have significantly outperformed. Market divergence is expected to persist, with capital flows likely rotating toward three key themes: (1) defensive stocks, (2) companies with strong Q2 earnings momentum, and (3) names less vulnerable to tariff-related risks.

Long-Term Outlook: The stock market continues to benefit from flexible monetary and fiscal policies. Going forward, public investment and real estate recovery are expected to serve as key growth drivers for cyclical sectors.

Vietnam’s economy maintained solid growth momentum during April across most key segments, with macroeconomic stability remaining intact. While the FX rate has yet to exhibit a strong positive trend, it has recovered somewhat during recent sessions. A series of pro-growth policy measures were announced, supporting sentiment amid lingering global trade tensions.

1Q2025 NPATMI continued to post solid growth. Most 2025 corporate business plans reflect confidence in adapting to this volatile business environment.

Vietnam’s stock market exhibited a strong rebound following the temporary suspension of US reciprocal tariffs. Sectors less exposed to the direct impact of tariffs outperformed notably during the rebound, indicating that investors remain willing to seek opportunities during sharp market corrections.

For the market to sustain a stable recovery, more concrete progress in trade negotiations is key. Current blended P/E valuations remain low, while the 1-year forward earnings yield remains attractive relative to deposit rates.

Real Estate, Industrial Parks, Chemicals, Oil & Gas, Personal & Household Goods (including Textiles), Brokerage, Banking, Construction & Building Materials, and Food & Beverages (including Fisheries), especially those in the VNMidcap basket, are expected to offer strong upside opportunities should trade talks improve. On the other hand, any pullback triggered by underwhelming tariff negotiations likely will present good opportunities to accumulate names in sectors less affected by trade headwinds.

Key technical levels for the VNIndex to watch: Upside resistance lies at 1,250 and then the 1,280–1,300 range. Support levels range between 1,180–1,200.

Short-term stock ideas during May 2025: PAT, ACV, PLC, SAS, and PVT.

SSI A-class portfolio rebalancing during May 2025: HPG, ACV, PVD, DPR, and PAT.

Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 6.93% YoY in 1Q25, below the government’s 7.7% target, yet still marking the highest quarterly growth since 2020. Domestic consumption showed encouraging signs of recovery, gradually narrowing the growth gap with manufacturing and exports. Inflationary pressures eased, and credit growth outperformed the same period last year. However, public investment disbursement remained subdued, lacking a clear breakthrough.

On the equity market, capital outflows from both ETFs and active funds accelerated in March, largely driven by concerns over rising tariff risks. The VN-Index was broadly flat during March but experienced a sharp correction in early April. Historically, the VN-Index has corrected by more than 4% on 24 occasions over the past decade. Despite short-term volatility, the market has demonstrated attractive post-correction recoveries, with a 1–3 month rebound rate of 70–75%, and an average 12-month return of approximately 16%.

On April 2, 2025, the U.S. President officially announced a new tariff regime comprising a baseline tariff of 10% and additional reciprocal tariffs for trading partners (Vietnam: 46%, China: 34%, Japan: 24%, and the EU: 20%). These tariffs took effect on April 5 (basic rate) and April 9 (reciprocal rate). In response, Vietnam proactively engaged in tariff negotiations with the U.S., signaling a constructive approach to mitigate potential disruptions.

From a sectoral perspective, listed companies in textiles, fisheries, and wood products are among the most exposed to the U.S. market. In contrast, sectors such as steel and aluminum remain unaffected by the new reciprocal tariffs. That said, investors should continue monitoring potential indirect impacts on related industries such as industrial parks, logistics, and consumer sectors.

Market valuation remains below historical averages and is notably cheaper than levels observed during the U.S.-China trade tensions of 2018–2019 or other significant corrections in the past decade. Vietnam’s domestic growth fundamentals remain intact.

We believe that negative headlines could present attractive entry points, particularly in defensive sectors such as consumer staples, electricity & energy, IT, and infrastructure-related industries like construction materials.

Short-term trading ideas for April 2025: VCG, PAT, BMP, NT2.

SSI A-class portfolio rebalancing in April 2025: HPG, BMP, IMP, VNM, FPT

Vietnam's macroeconomic data for January 2025 was affected by seasonal factors (Tet holiday, fewer working days in the month vs. last year), but remained acceptable. Notably, the government has shown a clear determination for higher growth, with a new GDP growth target of 8% for 2025, and may accept higher inflation and budget deficits to allocate resources for development-related investment.

In the stock market, Vietnam experienced a quiet but positive - and more stable - January compared to regional markets. Domestic investors supported the market against foreign sell pressure, with bright spots in the Banking, Seaport, and Public investment sectors.

Technical signals indicate that the Index's medium-term trend is still in the accumulation phase, within the 1,180 – 1,300 range. Currently, the Index is testing the 1,275 resistance zone. The important support level at the 20-week MA around 1,260 is expected to provide good support for the index.

In November, foreign investors continued net selling trend in the Vietnamese stock market with total net selling value of nearly VND 12 tn but mildly returned to net buying in the last week as the exchange rate stabilized.  Foreign transactions value accounted for 13.92% of the total trading value by the end of November, the highest level since April 2023. This aligns with the global capital flow trend, where strong net inflows into equity funds were mainly concentrated in the US stock market, while capital flowed out from the emerging markets (EM).

The stock market regained balance in early December as many VN30 stocks,  including the Financial sector (Banking and Brokerage), as well as Ports & Logistics, Textile, Fisheries, and Real Estate sectors maintained good price momentum. Key factors attracting market attention in December include:

Q4 GDP growth is expected to remain positive. Public investment is anticipated to accelerate in Q4 and through 2025. Exports and imports are expected to stay elevated before new US tariff policies are introduced.

The Vietnamese government's action plan for 2025. Breakthrough in economic growth reforms and institutional reforms are eagerly awaited.

Emerging market upgrade: The implementation of the non-prefunding solution has been positively assessed despite some operational obstacles. FTSE will meet and evaluate the upgrade prospect during Jan 2025.

Risks include exchange rate volatility, and unpredictable events from the trade policy of President-elect Donald Trump.

After November's correction, sectors/stocks at low valuation levels with short-term catalyst should be considered such as Transport/Tourism, Exports (Textiles, Fisheries), Real Estate, and Brokerage. Investors should take advantage of market correction to accumulate leading stocks in these sectors and proactively protect profits when expectations are met.

Short-term trading ideas for December 2024 : VHC, KDH, VCI, VPB, HAH, CTG & HDG.

SSI A-class portfolio rebalancing in December 2024: VCB, BID, MWG, FPT & KDH.

Global equity fund inflows positioned higher in October, contributed by stronger flows to DM markets while EMs remained flat. Positioning higher in the US market aided by rising expectations of a Trump win at the US election while stronger USD made EMs less attractive. In Vietnam, active funds saw strong net withdrawals in October, as investors raced to roll dice.

Vietnamese macro data for October rang positive in FDI disbursement and exports, though the data did not make a round trip: domestic consumption stalled. Full-year GDP growth is still expected to exceed the government's target and short-term pressure on the exchange rate remains well intact, though the SBV stands ready to intervene if deemed necessary.

More impressive hard data: Q3/2024 earnings results of listed companies indicated a widespread profit recovery across many sectors, with some sectors achieving growth rates of over 30%.