Company Report

Dominant position in Vietnam’s most attractive port clusters: GMD owns flagship assets in Cai Mep–Thi Vai (Gemalink) and Hai Phong (Nam Dinh Vu), the two fastest growing port regions in Vietnam. As Gemalink is one of the very few ports in Cai Mep with spare capacity to accommodate the region’s ~15% annual throughput growth, GMD is structurally well positioned to capture multi year volume and pricing upside.

Tariff tailwinds strengthen earnings visibility: Deep sea port floor tariffs were recently raised by 8–10%, and we expect Gemalink’s ASP to rise by ~10% YoY, supported by tight regional capacity and GML’s superior location. These industry-wide tariff adjustments provide a more favorable and predictable long term margin environment.

Long growth runway from capacity expansion: Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 commenced operations, lifting NDV’s total capacity to 2 mn TEU/year, while Gemalink Phase 2A (800K TEU)b broke ground in 1H2026 and be completed in 2H2027. With no competing capacity additions expected in the Cai Mep region until after 2030, GMD should benefit from a supply constrained environment for at least the next five years.

Price revisions support margin resilience: HT1 has raised selling prices by ~9% on average, broadly offsetting higher input costs (mainly coal) without denting volume growth (1H26 sales volume +9.7% YoY). The ability to raise prices while volumes recover suggests that current demand conditions are becoming more supportive of cost pass-through.

Southern positioning supports infrastructure-led volume recovery: Long Thanh International Airport, the APEC cluster, Ring Roads 3 and 4, and the Southern North-South Expressway network should continue to support cement demand in HT1’s core markets. Newer projects, including the metro system and Can Gio infrastructure cluster, could provide additional medium-term demand support as construction progresses.

Higher utilization should support operating leverage: HT1’s established Southern distribution network and scale position it to capture incremental demand as the recovery broadens. Higher volumes should improve fixed-cost absorption, allowing earnings growth to increasingly come from a combination of volume recovery, pricing discipline, and operating leverage.

Expanding its existing land bank, IDC has been approved to invest in three new industrial parks totaling 806 hectares (Tan Phuoc 1 IP, My Xuan B Expansion IP and Vinh Quang IP), equivalent to 60% of IDC's current business land bank, with operations expected to commence in late 2026. We believe IDC’s diversified IP portfolio, anchored in key Northern and Southern hubs, provides a solid foundation for long-term growth.

New lease area and MOUs are expected to rebound in 2026. New lease area and MOUs in 2026 are projected to reach 83 hectares (+10% YoY), of which 35 hectares will come from contracts carried over from 2025. We believe that stronger industrial park leasing demand in 2026 will be driven primarily by Phu My II Expansion and Huu Thanh, with initial contributions from Tan Phuoc 1 in 4Q26.

High dividend yield. IDC maintains a 40% dividend payout, comprising an estimated 30% cash dividend and 10% stock dividend. Based on the cash dividend, the implied dividend yield is 9.9%.

Market leadership in ICT and consumer electronics retail. DMX’s leading market position, bargaining power, established customer base, and extensive store network provide a platform for expanding into higher-margin adjacent services, including utility payments, agency banking, technical services, and e-commerce.

Long-term growth opportunity from EraBlue in Indonesia. EraBlue continues to expand rapidly in a market where modern-trade penetration remains below 10%, providing substantial room for store network expansion. That said, the chain remains at an early stage and currently makes only a negligible contribution to group earnings.

Strong balance sheet provides financial resilience. DMX’s cash-rich balance sheet provides a degree of downside protection against higher interest rates while supporting sustainable dividend payments.

We maintain our Market Perform rating on Vinhomes, with a 12-month target price of VND78,800/share, implying 11% upside. We raise our FY26 NPAT-MI forecast by 10% to VND61.6tn, mainly reflecting stronger-than-expected bulk-sale recognition across key projects. We forecast FY26 presales to increase 39% YoY to VND284.6tn, supported by an expanding project launch pipeline and continued bulk transactions.

The stronger earnings outlook, however, comes with higher capital intensity. We expect operating cash flow to turn negative in FY26 as inventory build-up and development expenditure accelerate, with debt/equity rising to 0.80x. Potential participation in infrastructure development could provide additional EPC income while improving connectivity to selected projects, but the financial implications remain difficult to assess given limited disclosure on contract status, returns, and funding requirements. We therefore exclude potential infrastructure contributions from our forecasts and valuation.

At 2.2x FY26F P/B, versus a five-year historical average of 1.7x, we believe VHM’s current valuation already incorporates much of the stronger FY26 earnings outlook.

Strong growth supported by superior profitability. MBB reported 2Q26 PBT of VND10.6 trillion, up 41% YoY, while 1H26 PBT reached VND20.2 trillion, equivalent to 49% of our full-year forecast. We project PBT to reach VND41.1 trillion in 2026 (+20% YoY) and VND47.4 trillion in 2027 (+15% YoY), supported by credit growth of around 27% and a sector-leading ROE of 21-22%.

Margin recovery demonstrates earnings resilience. NIM recovered to 4.16% in 2Q26, up 35bps QoQ, driven primarily by a significant increase in lending yields as the bank expanded higher-yield medium and long-term lending, particularly in real estate. The ability to reprice assets faster than funding costs highlights MBB's earnings resilience, although sustaining this performance will increasingly depend on funding management.

Long-term value lies in monetising a 38-million-customer ecosystem. Beyond near-term earnings growth, we believe the bank's most important strategic asset is its rapidly expanding customer base. While MBB has successfully built scale through its digital ecosystem, the larger opportunity remains converting these customers into higher-value relationships through consumer finance, unsecured lending and cross-selling. Successful execution could provide a structurally higher-margin growth engine over the long term.

Fleet expansion boosts revenue and margins: PVT’s fleet to grow to 76 vessels (~2.34mn DWT) in 2027. Higher utilization and favorable TC rates generate incremental revenue with limited fixed-cost impact.

Geopolitical-driven tanker market tightness supports rates: Strait of Hormuz disruptions, elevated war-risk premiums, and operator cautiousness reduce active fleet availability, sustaining charter rates.

Earnings stability orientation also supported by improved TC rates: As PVT pivot vessels back to mid- and long-term TC contracts following a period of spot market exposure with higher near-term earnings, favorable TC contract repricing (est. up 35% YoY) can take over and support earnings.

Disciplined reinvestment ensures long-term resilience: PVT balances fleet growth with financial discipline, preserving earnings sustainability and operational flexibility.

Solid laptop and office equipment demand. AI adoption among consumers and enterprises, together with continued data center expansion, should support demand for laptops and office equipment. While consumer AI demand may normalize from elevated levels, enterprise AI demand should remain resilient, supported by substantial untapped demand for AI infrastructure.

Mobile phone segment to return to growth in 2026. Replacement and upgrade demand, together with the addition of Motorola, should support a return to growth in 2026, although we expect growth to moderate in 2027.

Higher dividend provides downside protection. DGW is seeking shareholder approval to raise its 2026 cash dividend to 30% of par value, equivalent to a 7.2% dividend yield, significantly above the 5–10% payout during 2024–2025.

We upgrade PVD to OUTPERFORM with a revised 1Y target price of VND22,300/share. The upgrade reflects improving long-term industry prospects, while the recent earnings weakness has brought valuation back to attractive levels. At the current share price, PVD trades at 16.6x/11.4x 2026–27F P/E, respectively.

Investment thesis

•           Favorable industry outlook, with potential for a prolonged upcycle as uncertainty over Middle East supply supports more sustained upstream development.

•           46% YoY earnings growth expected in 2027, driven by the addition of two new jack-up rigs and higher day rates.

•           More aggressive fleet expansion, with management planning to add three rigs over the next five years.

A re-rating needs clearer evidence of volume stabilization and earnings growth, which the 2Q print hasn’t delivered. While we note SAB’s efforts in R&D and sales channel diversification, contribution from these improvements remains small at the moment and may not bring material change to business results in the near term.

Margins should plateau absent further price increases. GPM rose to 38.7% on two 1H price hikes (management plans no more in FY26) and a low-cost malt/aluminium inventory advantage, which we view as not durable.

Inexpensive, but fairly valued given the headwinds. 12.3x 2026F P/E sits well below its 5-year historical average (20x), but the current valuation already reflects key headwinds, including higher SCT and weak consumption. We derive our Target Price based on 2026F EPS of VND 3,668 and a target P/E of 14x (previously 15x). We view the 9% dividend yield as the key near-term support for the shares.

Following the significant share price correction since our previous update, we upgrade our rating on REE to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM, with a revised 12-month target price of VND56,200/share (from VND61,200 previously), implying 23% upside potential. The lower target price primarily reflects the roll-forward of our valuation horizon to mid-2027.

Investment thesis

•           Long-term growth potential in electricity: REE continues to expand its renewable energy portfolio, supporting the long-term growth prospects of its electricity segment.

•           Diversified earnings base provides resilience: While the electricity segment is likely to face near-term pressure, we expect sustained growth or stable performance in M&E services, office leasing, and water & environment to provide a meaningful earnings buffer.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on CTR, with an unchanged 12-month target price of VND 85,700/share, implying 11% upside. Our earnings estimates for 2026 remain broadly unchanged.

Investment thesis

•           Infrastructure-driven positioning: As Vietnam’s leading TowerCo and a major provider of solar energy solutions and telecom construction services, CTR is well positioned to benefit from the country’s continued investment in telecom and power infrastructure. The company is also expanding into residential construction, renewable power projects and overseas markets, which should help diversify its revenue base and support longer-term growth.

•           Growth diversification: CTR’s 2026-2027 growth should become less reliant on infrastructure leasing and increasingly supported by its other business segments. Key growth drivers include 1) improving site-level efficiency across its BTS (base transceiver station) portfolio, 2) continued expansion across B2B, B2C and SME customers, and 3) further overseas expansion under its “Go Global” strategy.

Elevated rubber prices to support 2026 earnings. Rubber prices increased 34% YoY and 27% YTD as of Aug-26, driven by weather-related supply disruptions in Thailand. We forecast average rubber prices to rise 12% YoY to VND 55mn/ton. Accordingly, rubber revenue is projected at VND 1.83tn (+12% YoY), while gross margin expands 3.3ppt YoY to 29.7%.

Peak land compensation recognition from rubber-to-industrial park conversion. PHR is expected to recognize VND 1.44tn of compensation income from the Thaco Mechanical Specialized IP and VND 2.10tn from the remaining VSIP 3 area during 2026-2027. We estimate around VND 1.5tn of land compensation income will be recognized in 2026, providing a key earnings driver.

Financial health remains solid. In 2Q26, PHR reported net cash of VND 2.52 trillion, equivalent to 31.1% of market capitalization. We believe the company’s strong cash position could support higher financial income as deposit rates trend upward.

Earnings diversification: A prudent and well-chosen loan portfolio has not only allowed CTG to safeguard its NIM but has also strengthened its fee-based income streams, including letter of credit, guarantee, and payment services fees. We believe this will remain a key driver, enabling CTG to further diversify its revenue base and reduce reliance on net interest income in the years ahead.

Solid fundamentals: Pretax profit is projected to reach VND 54 tn (+24.3% YoY) in 2026 and VND 64 tn (+18.7% YoY) in 2027, stemming from resilient NIM and strong fee-based income. Writeback income is expected to remain supportive at around VND 10 tn yearly.

Appealing valuation: For 2026, the stock trades at 1.17x P/B with ROE hovering at 22%, presenting an attractive valuation relative to BID (1.38x) and VCB (1.83x), which deliver ROEs of 15.6% and 17.5%, respectively.

We retain a constructive medium- and long-term view on KDH, supported by its reputable track record as a developer and sizable, legally clear landbank in HCMC. While core earnings remained weak in 1H26, we believe improving presales momentum provides better visibility on the recovery in project deliveries and earnings from 2027.

Stronger-than-expected take-up at Gladia Heights supports our 12% increase in FY26 presales forecast to VND7.2tn (+65% YoY) and provides better visibility on demand for KDH’s upcoming launches. We expect presales to remain resilient at VND7.2tn in FY27, supported by continued sales at Gladia by the Waters and the launch of Binh Trung Expansion. However, the pace of earnings recovery remains dependent on timely project launches, sales absorption and cash collection.

KDH is currently trading at a trailing P/B of 1.1x, representing a c.50% discount to its five-year average of 2.2x. While the discount partly reflects weaker core earnings and higher leverage, we see scope for a re-rating as Gladia sales momentum improves and the earnings recovery becomes more visible.