Company Report

We maintain our BUY recommendation on MSN, with a revised SOTP-based target price of VND 101,000. At 2026F P/E of 14.7x, the stock now trades at a significantly more attractive valuation compared to the post–WinCommerce acquisition peak of ~75x. We upgrade our 2026 earnings forecast, with net profit expected to reach VND 10.4 trillion (+53% YoY), reflecting stronger-than-anticipated operating performance.

Investment Thesis

•           WinCommerce (WCM): Structural beneficiary of tax reform shifting household businesses from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation—accelerating formalization and driving share gains for modern trade.

•           Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR): Elevated tungsten prices provide a meaningful uplift to non-core earnings, supporting overall profitability in 2026.

•           Balance sheet management: Offshore loan refinancing at lower rates helps offset rising domestic funding costs, improving financial resilience.

Rubber prices remain supportive, providing a solid earnings base in 2026. Natural rubber prices increased 32% YoY and 28% YTD as of May 2026, supported by weather-related supply disruptions in major producing countries, particularly Thailand, alongside firmer oil prices amid continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We forecast average rubber selling prices to increase 12% YoY to VND 55 million/ton in 2026. Consequently, rubber revenue is projected to reach VND 1.83 trillion (+12% YoY), while sales volume is expected to remain broadly stable at 28,200 tons (-1% YoY). Gross margin is forecast to expand to 29.7%, up 3.3 percentage points YoY.

2026 marks the peak earnings recognition period for industrial land conversion compensation. According to company disclosures, PHR expects to recognize compensation income related to rubber plantation conversion for major industrial park developments during 2026–2027, including VND 1,440 billion from the Thaco Mechanical & Supporting Industry Complex and VND 2,104 billion from the remaining compensation associated with the VSIP 3 project. We estimate that approximately VND 1.5 trillion of compensation income will be recognized in 2026 alone, driving profit before tax to VND 2,072 billion, equivalent to a 243% YoY increase. This represents the strongest earnings contribution from land conversion activities in the company’s recent history.

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. As of 1Q26, PHR held net cash of VND 2.37 trillion, equivalent to 25.3% of its current market capitalization. The company’s robust cash position not only strengthens financial flexibility but also supports higher financial income amid a rising interest rate environment.

Sales price revisions provide durability to margins: YTD 2026, HT1 has adjusted its selling price on average 9%, broadly successful in offloading the risen input costs (coal primarily), without impairing volume growth (1Q26 sales volume +13.9% YoY).

HT1 dominant Southern positioning allow strong support from major infrastructure projects: Long Thanh International Airport, Ring Roads 3 and 4, and the Southern North-South Expressway network continue supporting cement demand recovery in HT1’s core operating markets, where management expects demand growth of 6-7% YoY in 2026.

Margin recovery increasingly supported by operating leverage and market positioning: Trade discounts have begun normalizing from 2025 peaks, while HT1’s dominant Southern distribution network and scale advantage position the company to benefit disproportionately as demand recovery broadens.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for NT2 but revise down our target price to VND 27,000/share (from VND 30,000/share previously), implying 17% upside. The target price adjustment reflects a 12% reduction in our 2026 NPAT forecast.

Investment thesis

Secured gas supply advantage: NT2 remains among a limited group of power generators with long-term gas supply agreements with PV GAS, providing relatively strong fuel security and operational visibility.

Lower structural cost base: The company’s machinery and equipment were fully depreciated in 4Q25, resulting in a structurally lower depreciation burden and improved cost efficiency from 2026 onward.

High availability supporting system needs: With no major or medium scheduled maintenance in 2026–2027, NT2 is expected to maintain elevated plant availability, enhancing its role in supporting system stability during periods of rising electricity demand.

At the current share price, HSG is trading at 2026F–2027F forward P/E multiples of 19.7x and 19.3x, respectively — a valuation that appears demanding relative to its modest earnings growth outlook over the next two years and the structurally competitive nature of the galvanized steel industry.

While 2H FY2026 earnings are expected to improve sequentially from 1H FY2026, the recovery largely reflects normalization from a weak base rather than a meaningful acceleration in growth. Meanwhile, the Hoa Sen Home expansion story remains in an investment phase and is still far from contributing materially to consolidated earnings.

Following our revised estimates, we lower our target price to VND 12,900/share (from VND 14,300/share), implying 2.8% upside from the current price, and maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG. In our view, the stock would require a more meaningful valuation discount to adequately reflect its declining earnings trajectory and execution risks.

Sustained double-digit growth in Vietnam’s ICT and consumer electronics market

Strong expansion momentum from the Erablue chain in Indonesia

Monetization of existing infrastructure through higher-margin ancillary services, including utility payments, agent banking, technician services, and e-commerce platforms

After two decades of strong earnings growth, DMX appears well-positioned to sustain double-digit expansion over the next five years. Management targets revenue of VND 182 trillion and net profit of VND 13 trillion by 2030, implying 2026–2030 CAGR of 11% for revenue and 16% for earnings.

In Vietnam, DMX continues to benefit from its dominant position in the ICT and consumer electronics retail market, where it currently holds approximately 40% market share. The remaining market remains highly fragmented, with many smaller competitors facing profitability challenges, providing room for further consolidation and share gains.

Internationally, Indonesia represents a compelling long-term growth opportunity. The country’s modern retail penetration in consumer electronics remains relatively low, creating favorable conditions for organized retail expansion. DMX plans to scale its Erablue chain to 1,000 stores by 2030, up from 181 stores in 2025.

In addition, DMX is increasingly leveraging its nationwide infrastructure and MWG’s customer ecosystem of approximately 40 million users to cross-sell higher-margin services. These include utility payment solutions, agent banking, technician services, and integrated e-commerce offerings, which could support margin expansion, recurring revenue streams, and stronger customer retention over time.

Valuation remains supportive, though sustained re-rating depends on ROE recovery. MSB is trading at a discount to both its historical tier-2 peer valuation range and its FY2026F BVPS of VND 15,672/share. Given the bank’s current ROE of approximately 14% (vs. 10-year average ROE of 11.4%), the discount appears broadly justified. In our view, a meaningful re-rating toward historical averages would likely require a sustained improvement in ROE toward the 15–16% range. While achievable, this outcome is not yet fully assured given ongoing NIM pressure and elevated credit provisioning requirements.

Write-back income provides meaningful earnings optionality. Management has guided for approximately VND 1.4tn in recovery income in FY2026, supported by a legacy pool of roughly VND 10tn in written-off NPLs over the medium term. This represents a potentially material non-linear earnings driver that is not fully reflected in current valuation multiples. Our base case incorporates the guided VND 1.4tn recovery assumption; however, upside remains if actual recoveries exceed expectations, albeit timing and realization remain borrower-dependent and inherently difficult to forecast. We estimate that every additional VND 1tn in write-back income could contribute roughly 7% upside to FY2026 PBT.

Leading CASA franchise among tier-2 peers supports funding cost advantage. MSB reported a CASA ratio of 26.5% in 1Q26, the highest among tier-2 banks under our coverage universe (vs. TPB at ~22%, VIB at ~18%, and OCB at ~15%). This supports a blended cost of funds of around 4.0%, representing an estimated 50–100bps advantage relative to lower-CASA peers. The moderation from 28.9% in 4Q25 appears largely attributable to the broader industry shift toward term deposits amid elevated interest rates, rather than franchise-specific weakness. As the interest rate environment stabilizes, we believe MSB retains meaningful NIM recovery optionality through potential CASA normalization.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of GAS, with a 12-month target price of VND 86,000/share (from VND 83,400/share previously), representing 5% upside potential. Our higher target price reflects a slight increase in our 2026 earnings estimate.

Balanced sourcing strategy: The exploration of new gas fields and further LNG imports could enhance the proactiveness of domestic fuel sourcing while offsetting long-term depletion risks.

Higher natural gas gross profit margin vs. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) should be a key factor for 2026 earnings resilience.

We upgrade HDB to BUY with a 12-month target price of VND 35,000, implying 32.1% upside, supported by continued earnings growth and sustained above-system credit expansion.

The growth profile is clear, but the investment case hinges on execution. HDB continues to deliver strong headline metrics: high credit growth, robust ROE, and an expanding ecosystem. The more relevant question at this stage is not whether growth persists, but whether the balance sheet can scale efficiently without eroding returns.

HDB retains a structural advantage in credit allocation, with capacity to grow loans at ~35% over 2025–2027 — materially above the system, supported in part by its role in restructuring weaker institutions. This creates a window to accumulate market share faster than peers, reinforcing earnings momentum. At the same time, it places greater emphasis on funding discipline and risk management as the credit cycle matures.

Importantly, the composition of growth is improving. Credit expansion is increasingly diversified across manufacturing, services, retail trade, SMEs, and household businesses, reducing concentration risk. Rather than relying on a single lending segment, HDB is building a broader, more resilient franchise aligned with Vietnam’s consumption growth and formalization trends.

At the current market price, PVD is trading at 2026F-2027F P/E forward of 14.2x and 12.2x respectively, while its forward P/B are 1.1x and 1.0x in the same period. Our revised DCF valuation points to new target price of VND 34,000/share (from VND 27,400/share) reflecting a longer industry cycle assumption and more aggressive investment stance from the management. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for the share due to limited upside at the current price, and recommend to buy on dip.

Favorable industry outlook with prospect for a longer upcycle from more persistent demand for upstream development after higher supply uncertainty in the Middle East

Strong earnings growth in 2026 of 38% YoY thanks to contribution of 2 new jack-up rigs, stable day rate and utilization rate, PVD VI full year contribution and PVD I fully depreciated.

The management is taking a more aggressive stance in rig investment, with plan to invest 3 more rigs in the next 5 years.

GVR is currently trading at a forward P/E of 17x, below its 3-year historical average of 21.7x. We maintain a constructive stance on GVR, underpinned by its unrivaled rubber land bank of 377,797 hectares across key provinces including Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, and Tay Ninh. The planned conversion of over 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations into industrial park land represents a transformative growth driver, offering substantial long-term upside. Applying a SOTP valuation framework, we derive a 12-month target price of VND 36,200/share (1% down side) and reiterate our Market Perform rating.

Rubber prices remain elevated, underpinning 2026 earnings. In May 2026, prices rose 32% YoY and 28% YTD on weather-driven supply constraints, with Thailand facing heavy rainfall risks. Higher oil prices also lent support amid ongoing Middle East tensions. We project average rubber prices to rise 15% YoY to VND 58 million/ton. Rubber revenue is estimated at VND 26.7 trillion (+12% YoY), with consumption volume expected to reach 513,870 tons (-4% YoY) in 2026. Gross margin expected to reach 28%, up 2ppt YoY.

We expect income from the conversion of rubber plantation land into industrial park land. GVR is progressing legal and investment approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, with a strategic focus on southern provinces. In 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion in pre-tax profit, assuming 1,500 ha of converted land in Dong Nai and Binh Duong (old).

Financial health remains solid. In 1Q26, GVR reported net cash of VND 25.8 trillion, equivalent to 17.3% of market capitalization. We believe the company’s strong cash position will support higher financial income as deposit rates trend upward.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation with a lower target price of VND 61,600/share than our previous report reflecting lower anticipated PBT in 2026 due to sudden resin price recovery. Our target price is derived from a 5-year sector average P/E of 13.1x, and  P/B ratio of 1.9x. NTP could be a defensive choice for stock investment based on fundamental strength and construction sector momentum.

Stable construction sector trajectory and backlogs boost revenue increment. We expect consolidated revenue could accelerate by +12.5%YoY to around VND 7.8tn, fuled from increasing ASP and the carry-over backlog. Total consumption could extend to nearly 148 thousand tons of pipe, rising by +10%YoY.

Capacity to increase the ASP corresponded to resin price recovery. This could preserve the revenue growth and mitigate the unpredictable input risk affecting net margin due to 100% import dependence.

Asset structures minimizes interest risk exposure. Maintaining large amounts of cash and short-term investment helps company less likely to expose high interest rates borrowing, and even benefited from favorable deposit rate generating net financial income to support the PBT of company. We estimate a 100bps increase in interest rate would translate into an additional VND 27 bn in financial income (~3% of 2026 PBT).    

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating for PLX, with a 12-month target price of VND 43,200/share (previously VND 41,300/share), representing 7% upside. Despite lowering our 2026 NPATMI assumption, we roll our valuation horizon forward to 2027 and incorporate a DCF approach alongside our P/E-based valuation.

Investment thesis: PLX as the leading petroleum player in Vietnam: Along with Dung Quat (BSR: HOSE) and Nghi Son (NSRP) refineries, PLX plays a key role in ensuring adequate petroleum supply, underpinned by its extensive storage infrastructure, broad partner network and large petrol station footprint.

1Q26 results: PLX recorded revenue growth (+45% YoY) but a negative NPATMI of -VND 763 bn (vs. a positive level of VND 133 bn in 1Q25).

Petroleum segment loss was the main driver, due to a significant inventory provision of over VND 6.3 tn, reflecting 1) elevated global petroleum price volatility in March and April 2026 and 2) PLX’s critical role in additional petroleum sourcing in March, amid sourcing difficulties from several other primary wholesalers.

Other segments remained stable operations, as respective overall PBT grew by 2% YoY.