Company Report

Thermal power to offset weaker hydropower. Stable domestic natural gas supply, particularly in Southeast Vietnam, should support gas-fired power generation through 2026–2027. Together with coal-fired generation, higher thermal power utilization should offset weaker hydropower output amid less favorable hydrological conditions.

Nhon Trach 3&4 strengthens POW’s growth profile. As Vietnam’s first and currently only operating LNG-fired power project, Nhon Trach 3&4 represents a strategically important addition to the national power system and provides POW with a new source of growth as thermal power demand increases.

Resilience despite market headwinds. NLG remains relatively well positioned, supported by its net cash position, improving launch pipeline, and product exposure to the affordable and mid-end segments.

Presales remain healthy despite a high base. We forecast FY26 presales of VND 9,882bn (-17% YoY), reflecting normalization from the strong FY25 base but remaining well above 2022–23 levels.

Earnings recovery in 2H26. We forecast FY26 revenue of VND 4,907bn (-13% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 670bn (-4% YoY). Earnings should improve materially in 2H26, with NPAT-MI of VND 547bn, up 4x HoH and 11% YoY, driven by accelerated handovers at ongoing projects. Excluding 2025 non-recurring items, core profit is expected to grow 12% YoY.

Higher selling prices support margin resilience. BMP has increased PVC product selling prices by an average of 15% since early April 2026 in response to higher PVC resin costs. With Middle East tensions stabilizing and PVC resin prices normalizing toward pre-conflict levels, we expect the resulting price-cost spread to support GPM in the medium term, similar to the post-COVID period.

Infrastructure projects provide a new growth avenue. BMP’s increasing focus on large-scale infrastructure projects should support volume growth while improving economies of scale and lowering selling expenses, providing additional support to margins.

Strong and consistent shareholder returns. BMP maintains a high-payout policy, with a payout ratio of around 99%, translating into an average dividend yield—and effectively an earnings yield—of close to 10%.

Long-term hydropower resilience: Despite near-term weather-related weakness, hydropower should remain an important component of Vietnam’s power mix and national energy security, supporting the long-term resilience of HDG’s power portfolio.

Medium-term growth catalysts: Earnings growth should be supported by the monetization of remaining units at Hado Charm Villas and the expected launch of the La Trọng hydropower project.

Lower FX exposure: HDG’s FX risk has declined following the conversion of EUR-denominated debt at the 7A plant into VND-denominated debt.

Earnings diversification provides a buffer against margin pressure. TCB’s integrated ecosystem offers significant scope to diversify fee income and reduce reliance on NII. In particular, with Masterise and Vingroup participating in major national infrastructure and urban-development projects, we expect TCX to benefit from increased bond issuance and distribution mandates, alongside L/C and settlement services.

Earnings growth remains resilient despite emerging headwinds. We forecast PBT of VND37.8tn (+16% YoY) in 2026 and VND43.4tn (+15% YoY) in 2027. We expect TCB’s diversified revenue base to partly offset NIM compression and higher credit costs as the real-estate market faces pressure from elevated interest rates.

Valuation provides room for re-rating. At 1.13x 2026F P/B, TCB trades at a meaningful discount to its historical average of 1.31x, although above the 2022 trough of 0.67x. This valuation appears undemanding relative to our expected ~15.5% ROE and TCB’s strong capital position. In our view, the discount primarily reflects near-term concerns around asset quality and NIM rather than structural deterioration in the bank’s earnings power or franchise. As fee-income diversification and ecosystem-driven growth increasingly offset margin pressure, we see scope for multiple re-rating.

Robust backlog supports volume growth. Large public and commercial housing projects from Vinhomes, Masterise and Hoang Huy Group should support resilient demand for construction materials. With construction activity continuing to expand, we expect NTP to maintain positive volume growth, supporting our forecast of more than 136,000 tonnes of sales in 2026 (+2% YoY).

Pricing power supports margins amid PVC volatility. As the leading pipe manufacturer in northern Vietnam, NTP has demonstrated the ability to adjust ASP when PVC resin prices increase. This provides a degree of natural margin protection and should allow gross and net profit margins to remain around their historical averages of 31% and 14%, respectively, under a normalized input-cost environment.

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. NTP maintains a conservative capital structure with no long-term debt, supported by a sizeable cash and short-term investment position. With interest rates remaining relatively high, financial income from these liquid assets should provide an additional contribution to earnings.

Potential catalyst from State-capital restructuring. Decision 40/2026/QĐ-TTg, which establishes criteria for classifying enterprises for State-capital restructuring, could facilitate the divestment process involving SCIC’s stake in NTP. This could improve the company’s ownership structure and provide an additional valuation catalyst.

Overseas market will remain the key growth driver, along with long-term investments in strategic technologies.

Public sector digitalization adds medium-term optionality. FPT has collaborated with the Government in digital initiatives, providing structural growth for domestic IT services. FPT AI Factory also started generating profit in 2Q26.

AI transformation as a growth driver over the medium term, amid a rapidly evolving AI landscape.

Resilient pharmacy business: Long Chau’s earnings outlook remains defensive despite a weaker consumption environment driven by rising inflation, as pharmaceutical demand is largely non-discretionary.

ICT business supported by replacement demand: While earnings growth at FPT Shop is expected to normalize following the replacement cycle, its relatively small contribution to group earnings should limit any impact on FRT’s consolidated profitability.

Strengthening balance sheet: Ongoing deleveraging continues to improve financial flexibility, enhancing resilience and reducing sensitivity to a potentially higher interest-rate environment.

Earnings outlook remains intact despite Section 301 tariffs. Lower raw material costs are expected to partly offset weaker US demand. We trim our 2026 revenue forecast to VND 13.0tn (+8% YoY) from VND 13.4tn (+12% YoY), while maintaining our NPATMI forecast at VND 1.4tn (+3% YoY). We introduce 2027 forecasts of VND 13.4tn revenue (+4% YoY) and VND 1.5tn NPATMI (+6% YoY).

Tariff risks remain manageable. Vietnam’s pangasius industry continues to enjoy a relative competitive advantage despite the new 12.5% Section 301 tariff, although further tariff increases could weigh on demand. VHC received a preliminary anti-dumping duty of USD 0/kg, compared with USD 0.23–0.29/kg for peers, translating into an estimated 5–10% cost advantage at current US selling prices. The final determination remains pending.

Elevated rubber prices should continue to support earnings in 2026. Natural rubber prices remained favorable, increasing 26.4% YoY and 21% YTD as of May 2026, driven by weather-related supply disruptions, particularly heavy rainfall in Thailand. We forecast rubber revenue of VND26.7tn (+12% YoY) despite an estimated 4% decline in sales volume to 513,870 tons, as higher selling prices more than offset lower volumes. Gross margin is projected to improve to 28%, up 2 percentage points YoY.

Land conversion remains the key structural growth catalyst. GVR continues to advance legal and investment approvals for 23,444ha of industrial park development by 2030, with a strategic focus on southern Vietnam. For 2026, we forecast VND3.2tn of land-transfer revenue (+875% YoY) and VND2.63tn of pre-tax profit, assuming approximately 1,500ha of converted land in Dong Nai and Binh Duong (old province boundaries).

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. As of end-2Q26, GVR held net cash of VND26.2tn, equivalent to 23.6% of its current market capitalization. We expect the company’s substantial cash holdings to generate higher financial income as deposit rates continue to trend upward.

2026 AGM: Tradeoff between long-term investment and short-term earnings growth

We have a NON-RATING recommendation on CMG. The company currently trades at trailing P/E of 14x (vs. global technology peer P/E of 16x).

2025 performance: CMG delivered 17% YoY revenue growth and 21% YoY NPAT rise in 2025. Two primary growth engines were technology & solution (accounting for nearly 50% of revenue) and digital infrastructure (contributing over 75% of PBT) segments, along with further global penetration, education expansion and continued development of new technologies.

We upgrade SZC to Outperform from Market Perform. The recent share price correction has created what we believe is an unjustified valuation discount. SZC is currently trading at 1.02x 2026F P/B, well below the industrial park sector average of 1.83x, despite retaining attractive long-term fundamentals. We believe this discount overlooks: (i) a remaining leasable land bank of more than 514 ha, including 150 ha already cleared and ready for lease; and (ii) meaningful rental upside, with current asking rents still 10–15% below other industrial parks in Ba Ria–Vung Tau, while improving connectivity from the Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway should support further price appreciation. Leasing momentum has also begun to recover, with both new lease contracts and land lease MOUs rebounding from the low base in 2025. We derive a 12-month SOTP-based target price of VND24,000/share.

At first glance, SZC’s 2026F P/E of 38.0x appears demanding relative to the sector average of 11.9x. However, we believe this comparison is misleading. The elevated multiple primarily reflects the accounting transition under Circular 99/2025, which changes industrial park lease revenue recognition from upfront recognition to straight-line recognition over the remaining 33-year lease term. The accounting change depresses reported earnings without affecting cash inflows or project economics. As such, P/B remains the more appropriate valuation metric for industrial park developers at this stage of their development cycle.

A strong first half is unlikely to be sustained. The robust 1H26 performance was supported in part by order frontloading ahead of tariff implementation, reducing visibility for the second half. Meanwhile, persistently high borrowing costs are expected to keep interest expenses elevated, while continued investment in operations should drive further SG&A growth.

Valuation reset reflects weaker near-term earnings outlook. We cut our 2026 NPAT forecast to VND362bn (-8% YoY) from VND436bn (+11% YoY) previously. Consequently, we lower our target price to VND19,200/share (from VND23,000), based on an equal weighting of DCF and P/E methodologies. Our target P/E multiple is reduced to 7x, below the five-year historical average of 9x, to reflect a more challenging earnings outlook.

Long-term investors may accumulate on further weakness. Despite near-term headwinds, we believe TNG’s consistent dividend policy provides downside support. Historically, the stock has traded at trough valuations as low as 3.6x P/E during the 2022 downturn.

Following the recent share price correction, we upgrade NT2 to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) while maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 27,000/share, implying 27% upside.

Investment thesis

We continue to view NT2 as one of the most attractive conventional power generators under our coverage, supported by two structural advantages:

•           Secured gas supply. NT2 remains one of the few gas-fired power plants benefiting from a long-term gas supply agreement with PV GAS (GAS: HOSE), providing greater fuel security amid tightening domestic gas availability.

•           Structurally lower cost base. The plant’s major machinery and equipment were fully depreciated in 4Q25, significantly reducing depreciation expenses and supporting stronger earnings quality from 2026 onward.

We downgrade our rating for HAH from BUY to Outperform with a target price of VND 63,500/share (implying 22.4% upside), supported by sustained earnings strength in 2026 and better mid-term visibility supported by tight feeder markets and ongoing fleet expansion.

Investment Thesis

•           Strong 1H2026 performance, supported by high charter rates, fleet additions (GREEN PARK and GREEN TIME).

•           Global trade volatility and rerouting dynamics (Red Sea/Cape route) continue to absorb effective capacity. Charter rates for feeder vessels maintains high base.

•           Structural imbalance in global fleet composition supports long-term demand for feeder-sized ships, favoring HAH with a strong capacity growth at a 5-year CAGR of 26%.