Company Report

As PLX share price has increased 12% since our last report, we are lowering our rating on the shares of PLX from Outperform to Market Perform with 1-year target price of VND 45,000/share.

PBT for 4Q24 was VND 760 bn, improving 215% QoQ, but declining -11% YoY due to the increase in sales-related expenses. FY2024 PBT was VND 3.96 tn, exceeding guidance by 37% and remaining flattish versus 2023 despite the absence of one-off income from the divestment of PGB during 2023.

We expect that the company’s PBT will increase 14% YoY during 2025, driven by an  increase of 3% in petroleum sales, the implementation of cost-cutting measures, and the potential positive impact from the to be finalized new decree on petroleum businesses.

We maintain a MARKET PERFORM rating but lower our 12-month target price to VND 12,200/share (from VND 12,600) on the shares of POW (representing 1% upside), as we revise down our 2025-2026 core NPATMI estimates by 45%-47%, mainly due to 1) 2024 lower-than-expected results and 2) our projection delay of Nhon Trach 3& 4 project that indicates a higher pressure for the 2026 earnings outlook. Meanwhile, we remain nearly unchanged for the long-term earnings outlook.

2025 outlook: We remain cautious over the operational performance during the early years of the Nhon Trach 3&4 project launch due to depreciation and financing costs, as a sufficient long-term contracted volume (Qc) has not been approved. Relevant to 2025 financial projections, last year POW had fully realized ~VND 1 tn of the compensation related to Vung Ang 1’s Generator 1 technical issues, which is not likely to repeat this year. Hence, we project a 48% YoY NPATMI decline for the year - equivalent to a 26% YoY decline for core NPATMI (excluding the 4Q24 other income that is related to the above one-off compensation) - despite the recoveries at Nhon Trach 2 (from 2024 low base) and Dakdrinh (benefiting from La Niña or a neutral weather pattern) plants, and the profit from the newly acquired Nam Non hydropower plant.

We reiterate our BUY rating on the shares of CTG with a higher 1Y TP of VND 49,100/share (from VND 44,200/share), representing 15.8% upside. Given the VND 85 tn in aggregate bad debt written off since 2019, we believe that the bad debt clearance process has been largely completed during 2024. As such, CTG should be able to reduce credit costs during 2025 and optimize its lending structure over the medium-term. Fundamental improvements should enable ROE to exceed 19%.

For 2025, we estimate pretax profit of VND 40 tn (+26% YoY), fueled by a provision reduction (-12.7% YoY to VND 24 tn) and NII improvement (+15% YoY). Non-NII grows 6.3% YoY, as we anticipate better writeback income of VND 9 tn for 2025. Credit growth is expected at 17.5% YTD to VND 2.03 qn, with a focus on big projects and the FDI zone while supporting the retail and SME sectors. We expect CTG will maintain a healthy interest rate structure despite deposit rates inching higher during 2H25, hence, NIM likely will decrease slightly to 2.84% (-4bps YoY) during 2025. Asset quality continues to strengthen, with NPLs declining to 1.15% of total loans and credit costs lingering around 1.2%. Loss coverage ratio should improve to 179%. CIR is expected to rise to 30.7% during 2025 (up from 27.5% during 2024) as CTG continues its investment in digitalization.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has recently proposed to offer and reduce its stake in VIB. This follows CBA's successful divestment of a 15.35% stake in 2024. On March 5th, 130.9 million shares of VIB were transferred via throughput at a price of VND 21,100 per share, translating to a total transaction value of VND 2.76 tn (USD 108 mn).

With CBA no longer a strategic shareholder of VIB, we believe the bank will have greater opportunities to seek a new strategic partner through a private placement in the foreseeable future. This move would not only strengthen its capitalization but also provide valuable expertise and operational synergies, supporting its long-term business expansion and competitiveness in our view. The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of VIB at the end of 2024 was 11.9%, reflecting the need for additional capital to support long-term future growth.

We currently hold Market Perform rating for VIB shares with 1Y TP of VND 21,100/share. VIB is trading at forward P/B of 1.26x as compared to the historic average of 1.8x since 2020.

Our 12-month target price on the shares of REE is VND 80,000/share (representing an 9% upside), with a MARKET PERFORM rating. We note that REE currently trades at 2025 P/E of nearly 14x (relatively higher than 5-year P/E average of 11x).

2024 earnings decline was primarily due to the El Niño weather pattern, which adversely affected REE’s hydropower portfolio, especially in H1. The water & environment and real estate segments also witnessed reduced profitability, mainly due to higher depreciation and financing costs. Nevertheless, we have begun to see a rebound from the M&E services and trading segment.

We forecast 2025 NPATMI to achieve VND 2.5 tn (+27% YoY), whilst the majority of NPATMI should be backed by the electricity segment, given the dominance of either the La Niña or neutral weather pattern (supporting the recovery outlook of hydropower volume). In fact, we project that this segment’s NPATMI will grow 35% YoY. On the other hand, we anticipate the other segments to benefit from further sales of Phase 1 of the Light Square project Phase 1, a higher occupancy rate from E.town 6 office building (E.town 6), and a recovery in the M&E services field.

Market share gains to offset tepid consumption recovery at ICT & CE in both 2024 and 2025.

Accelerated grocery store openings to secure long-term growth.

Both the Erablue and Avakids chains turned profitable (from 3Q24 and September 2024), while the An Khang pharmacy chain is expected to reach breakeven point during 2Q25.

Investment view: We reiterate our BUY recommendation but lower our SOTP-based Target Price to VND 73,000 (from VND 77,000) to reflect: (1) slower-than-expected consumption recovery; and (2) faster-than-expected new openings within the grocery chain, which should negatively impact on the profit margin over the short-term.

We have witnessed encouraging quarterly results and the prospect of an improved economy reinforces our confidence in SAB’s growth going forward. However, we remain cautious regarding potential headwinds, including regulatory challenges, intensified competition, and the risk of further increases in aluminum prices. As a result, we lower our forecasts for 2025E net sales and NPATMI to VND 33.3 tn (+4.4% YoY) and VND 4.6 tn (+6.2% YoY), respectively. Our earnings forecast for 2025 is 7% lower than our previous forecast, as we lower the GPM forecast from 31% to 30.2% and increase the A&P-to-sales margin from 12% to 12.7% to match 2024 spending levels.

We continue to rate the shares of SAB as MARKET PERFORM, given the challenging outlook. Our 12-month target price for SAB is lowered to VND 58,000/share (from VND 64,500/share), indicating an 11% potential upside.

2025 growth should likely converge to an organic level, without outliers.

Between 2025-2026, HHV plans to issue around VND 1 tn in charter capital to support new BOT infrastructure projects, while potential BOT projects likely require substantial additional funding.

With stable operations and the government's ambitious public investment plans, we believe that the shares of HHV are  well-positioned to benefit from accelerated public investment.

Our 2025 sales and NPAT estimates are approximately VND 3.7 tn (+11% YoY) and VND 519 bn (+9.7% YoY), respectively. Our DCF model provides a one-year target price of VND 15,100 per share, and we reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares of HHV.

While the company's operations remain stable, supported by a robust construction backlog and the government's ambitious infrastructure development targets, we believe that the stock is an opportune vehicle to capitalize on the theme of public investment acceleration, which could boost infrastructure development-related stocks.

Becamex IDC (BCM) is the undisputed leader in Vietnam’s industrial and urban development, uniquely positioned to capitalize on surging land values, rapid industrial expansion, and strategic joint ventures. With an extensive land bank in Vietnam’s top manufacturing hub, BCM is set to deliver significant earnings growth fueled by upcoming land price adjustments, high industrial demand, and a thriving partnership with VSIP. Notably, in a market where major deals have been scarce in recent years, BCM’s current proposition stands out as an exceptional entry point for investors. We believe BCM is at the early stages of a multi-year growth cycle, making this a rare and compelling investment opportunity. Given these outstanding fundamentals, our rating for the stock is OUTPERFORM with 1-year target price of VND 89,900/share.

• Market share gain to offset tepid consumption recovery for ICT & CE
• Accelerated grocery new openings to secure long term growth
• Both the Erablue and Avakids chains turned profitable (as of 3Q24 and September 2024 respectively), while the An Khang pharmacy chain is expected to reach breakeven in 2Q25.

Investment view: The management has set a 2025 revenue target of VND 150 tn (+12% YoY) and net income at VND 4.85 tn (30% YoY), which implies stable earnings for ICT & CE segment, consistent with the gradual recovery in consumption spending. Despite the slow pace of consumption recovery, MWG’s robust business model across major segments and the anticipated mobile phone replacement cycle are expected to drive significant earnings growth in 2025.  However, we may need to revise our 2025 earnings estimates on weaker consumption growth, and detailed projections and valuation will be provided in our fortcoming report. 

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of HDG, along with our 1-year TP of VND 33,100/share (representing 19% upside).

2024 results trailed our forecast primarily due to higher-than-expected bad debt provision in 4Q24 related to receivables from the Hong Phong 4 solar farm. As expected, HDG did not launch the next sales phase of Hado Charm Villas project during the year. The electricity segment continued to be the dominant segment in terms of both revenue and earnings.

Outlook: We expect 2025 NPATMI growth of 43% YoY, primarily driven by the real estate and electricity segments. Specifically, we expect the next sales phase(s) of Hado Charm Villas for 2025 to support 69% YoY revenue growth for the real estate segment, along with the continuing recovery of the hydropower portfolio. Meanwhile, we remain concerned about the legal risk related to Hong Phong 4 solar farm (we apply a -10% discount on our valuation for HDG). Over the longer-term, we forecast that the Hado Green Lane and Hado Minh Long projects will realize revenue between 2027-2030.

We lower our rating to Outperform from Buy for TCB, with 1Y TP of VND 29,200/share - representing an upside of 13% as the shares increasing 8.7% from our last report. We still expect property revival during 2025, with numerous projects up for sale. This should be a positive catalyst for TCB. Given the brighter fundamentals from 2025, TCB valuation is attractive with a forward P/B of 1.07x, which is well below its historic average of 1.4x.  

We project 2025 pretax profit to expand to VND 33.5 tn (+21.8% YoY vs. our previous forecasts of 15.2% YoY), driven by better non-NII (+16.8% YoY) and lighter credit costs (0.55%, -16 bps YoY). We believe that the property recovery will be the main driver to achieve credit growth of 21.8% YTD with the focus on mortgage lending. With several supporting mechanisms including the flexible pricing scheme, bullet payments, and incentive lending rates, we believe that asset quality should be well managed and gradually improve along with the revival of property market. The NPL ratio is projected to be 1.05% in 2025. However, the NIM us expected to be under pressure at 4.2% (-3 bps YoY), due to the intense competition and rising funding costs.

Maintain BUY. Fine-tuning 2025 estimates and target price to VND 33,500/share (from VND 31,700/share), based on unchanged P/E and EV/EBITDA targets of 15x and 8x respectively. Dung Quat 2 being put into operation and announcement on prelim AD duty for imported HRC from China and India are 2 key catalysts for the share price.

2025 outlook is positive for both the sector and HPG,  with revenue and NPAT growth of 15.9% YoY and  28% YoY respectively, thanks to: public investment strongly pushed and the recovery of the real estate market, with higher steel volumes from Dung Quat 2 – Phase 1 operation from 1Q 2025 and base-case assumption for HRC AD duty to be applied for China HRC imports.

We see minimal to slightly positive impact for HPG from Trump’s recent tariff on steel imports. The recent proclamation to raise US import tax for steel to 25% by Trump does not impact Vietnam steel directly, as Vietnam steel exports to the US have already been taxed at 25% since 2018, and the recent action of Trump would put Vietnam steel exports to the US on a relatively more equal footing compared to other countries.

We lower our rating to OUTPERFORM (from BUY) on the shares of FPT, with a 12-month target price of VND 176,400/share (from VND 186,300/share) (representing 23% upside), as we revise down our 2025 NPATMI estimate by 5%. In fact, based on the current implementation progress of FPT AI Factory project and the weak enrollment situation of FPT Education, we believe that 2025 revenue from FPT AI Factory and the education segment may not meet our previous expectations. Nevertheless, we still project double-digit growth for FPT during 2025 (19% YoY for revenue and 22% YoY for NPATMI), whereby the technology segment will continue to be the primary growth driver.

Upside potential: Higher-than-expected revenue growth from the Americas; faster-than-expected economic recovery to support domestic IT, and online advertising segments.

Downside risks: Higher IT engineer salaries, lower-than-expected revenue/contract value from software and IT services, and slower-than-expected implementation progress at FPT AI Factory.

During the analyst meeting, the management reaffirmed PNJ’s ability to gain market share, though they still expressed concern over the gold shortage issue. This is in line with our recent view on PNJ that the gold shortage issue may still linger in 2025. The gold price has retreated recently after reaching an all-time high in early February. However, the price correction is quite negligible, and the gold flow on the market remains tight. As such, a change in Decree 24/2012/ND-CP (expected in September 2025) should be crucial to create conditions for jewelry and gold retailers to grow in the long term.

PNJ will publish a detailed 2025 financial plan in late March, along with AGM documents. We currently forecast an expanded net income for PNJ in 2025 to VND 2.5 trillion (+17% YoY) and maintain a BUY recommendation with a 1-year target price of VND 123,000 per share.