Company Report

We reiterate our Outperform rating for STB shares with a 1Y TP of VND 47,600/share (from VND 41,900). We do take into account the potential provision reversal from the Phong Phu Industrial Park debt collection and the sale of the 32.5% stake locked at VAMC. Both could act as further catalysts to the shares.

Restructuring Completion as a Catalyst: 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for STB as it concludes its restructuring program. The resolution of the 32.5% stake held at VAMC is expected to happen in 2H25, which could unlock new growth levels, including the ability to engage with strategic investors, resume dividends.

Earnings Growth Outlook: In 2025, STB is projected to achieve a pretax profit of VND 14.6 tn (+15% YoY), driven by 13.5% credit growth and a 10bps drop in credit cost to 0.28%. The bank plans to diversify its funding base, targeting 20% growth in medium- and long-term funding to reach VND 44 tn, as retail clients favor short-term deposits in a low-rate environment. Asset quality remains a priority, with VND 1 trillion in NPL write-offs stabilizing the NPL ratio at 2.4%. However, NIM is expected to compress by 16 bps to 3.56% due to competition and limited floating-rate mortgage exposure. Despite ongoing workforce restructuring, the CIR is likely to stay elevated at 48.5%.

Looking ahead to 2026, pretax profit is forecast to rise to VND 17.8 trillion (+21.5% YoY), supported by 14% credit growth, further credit cost improvement to 0.23%, and a modest NIM recovery to 3.6%. Asset quality is set to improve, with the NPL ratio declining to 2.1% following an aggressive cleanup of bad debt.

Vinpearl is a prominent Vietnamese hospitality and tourism brand owned by Vingroup, the largest private enterprises in Vietnam. Established in 2001, Vinpearl operates a wide range of luxury resorts, hotels, amusement parks and entertainment complexes, and golf courses across Vietnam.

Vinpearl’s competitive advantage is underpinned by:

•           Benefits from strategic backing from Vingroup, which provides superior project management capabilities, brand equity, and access to a high-quality ecosystem.

•           Established market leadership: Vinpearl’s long track record in delivering large-scale resort and entertainment developments, combined with a diversified hotel portfolio and prime landbank, supports its market leadership in Vietnam’s tourism and hospitality sector.

•           Long-term growth potential: By expanding its portfolio of mega-clusters and improving efficiency, Vinpearl is well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth within Vietnam’s evolving tourism landscape.

Vinpearl’s strategy includes increasing hotel capacity by 40%, expanding amusement park area by 65%, and quadrupling the number of 18-hole golf courses by 2028. Income from property transfer segment is projected to be around 21.5tn for the 2025-2027 period, supporting robust earnings growth.

For 2025-2026, we assume continued growth in the hospitality segment, supported by increased international tourist arrivals—particularly from key markets such as China and South Korea and opening of VinWonders Vu Yen. However, a decline property sales and financial income relative to the prior year may lead to a decrease in both revenue and NPAT for 2025. As a result, we forecast Vinpearl to deliver 2025F revenue and NPAT of VND 13 tn (-8% YoY) and VND 1.68 tn (-34% YoY), respectively.  We forecast Vinpearl to deliver 2026F revenue and NPAT of VND 15.4 tn (+16% YoY) and VND 2.59 tn (+59% YoY), respectively.

MSN reported better-than-expected 1Q25 results, with revenue of VND 19 tn (flat YoY, +11% YoY LFL comparison), NPAT of VND 983 bn (+105% YoY), and NPATMI VND 394 bn (+277% YoY). Solid performance was achieved at all three core businesses (MCH, WCM and MML), while the loss from its non-core mining business (MSR) was substantially reduced. MSN incurred one-off expenses of VND 229 bn related to the Wineco and Mobicast goodwill write-offs, along with other non-operating activities. Net debt/EBITDA was maintained around 2.9x for the last three quarters, in line with company guidance. 

Investment view: MSN’s 2025 earnings growth is to be fueled by continuous improvement in the core consumer-retail business, buttressed by the outstanding performance of the meat business given elevated pork prices and reduced losses associated with the non-core mining business. Given the 1Q25 earnings result, we believe that MSN will be able to exceed base case earnings guidance for 2025.

We upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) on the shares of CTR, with a 12-month target price of VND 102,400/share (from VND 135,000/share) (representing 15% upside). Our lower target price reflects our reduced projections for the 2026-2030 period NPAT CAGR, at between 9%-10% (from between 10%-15%), as we lower our 2025 revenue estimate for residential construction and the infrastructure leasing segments.

1Q25 results exhibited single-digit growth, at 4% and 5% YoY for revenue and NPAT, respectively, which was driven by the expansion in the number of BTS sites (infrastructure leasing) and revenue from solar energy solutions, M&E, and ICT (solutions & technical services). This result was well within our expectations.

2025 outlook: We forecast revenue and NPAT of VND 13.7 tn (+9% YoY) and VND 563 bn (+5% YoY), respectively, whereby the construction segment could enjoy higher growth from 2Q25 (vs. 2% YoY during 1Q25). Further, 1Q25 growth momentum in infrastructure leasing and solutions & technical services should continue near-term. Our overall projection is also similar to that of the company’s 2025 guidance.

2025-2030 development strategy: From 2025, CTR expects to continue its international market expansion strategy and maintaining domestic market strength, especially leadership in Vietnam TowerCo and operation businesses. The earnings CAGR guidance during this period is between 5%-10%. Additionally, we believe that the ongoing need of 5G infrastructure development in Vietnam should underpin CTR’s long-term BTS expansion.

HDB recorded a pretax profit of VND 5.4 tn (+33% YoY, or 31% QoQ), primarily driven by solid NFI (+105.5% YoY, +73% QoQ), strong FX and securities trading gains (+247% YoY, or 47% QoQ), strong other income (+552% YoY, or +22% QoQ), and a better CIR of 27.4% (vs. 31.7% in 1Q24). Credit costs (-55bps to 1.2%) did not rise with the NPL formation rate (+33bps QoQ to 0.81%), which was additive to bottom line growth during 1Q25. In general, HDB beat our projection for 1Q25, however, earnings were primarily supported by one-off items as the NIM significantly decreased (-72bps YoY).

For 2025, we maintain our PBT estimate of VND 20 tn (+20% YoY), fueled by solid NII (+16% YoY), NFI recovery (+14% YoY), and lighter credit costs. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on HDB’s shares with 1Y TP of VND 25,000/share, representing 18% upside.

Since our rating downgrade, MCH’s share price has declined 22%. At this stage, we believe that flattish net income growth for 2025 and the uncertainty of US tariffs may already be discounted into MCH’s share price. As such, with a much more reasonable valuation and long term growth potential, we are upgrading the shares of MCH to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) despite cutting our 1Y target price to VND 157,000/share (from VND 169,000/share). The migration of MCH shares to HOSE is expected sometime between 3Q25-1Q26, which would likely attract investor interest to the name. In addition, MCH has a decent cash dividend policy (60% on par for 2025, 5% dividend yield).

MCH's exposure to the U.S. market is minimal, with exports accounting for < 1% of total sales, which limits the direct impact of tariffs. Given MCH's strong product portfolio, consumer preferences may shift toward in-home consumption during periods of economic uncertainty, helping MCH to sustain earnings. However, broader economic repercussions (including weaker export activity and the potential decline in consumer spending) pose downside risk. In the event of an economic slowdown, MCH may opt to delay product launches, prioritizing cost management and market stability. Additionally, the premiumization trend could extend. These factors may weigh on earnings growth over the near-term. As a result, we trim our 2025 revenue and EBITDA estimates to account for the potential adverse effects of US tariffs. Moreover, the weaker-than-expected financial income during 1Q25 has led us to further reduce our estimates for the year. Our 2025 net income estimate is lowered to VND 7.9 tn (flat YoY, from VND 8.3 tn).

Revenue and net profit during 1Q25 are estimated at VND37tn and VND3.3tn, respectively, providing strong growth of 22%YoY and 16% YoY reflective of substantial sales growth during March with the contribution of the first furnace of Dung Quat 2. HPG‘s construction steel, HRC and billet sales volume increased by 29% YoY to 2.4m tons in 1Q25.

2025 business plan: Consolidated revenue of VND170tn, up 21.4% YoY, and consolidated NPAT of VND15tn, up 25% YoY.

Progress of Dung Quat 2 project: Phase 1 (the first blast furnace) has commenced operation and contributed to the March result. The second furnace is expected to commence operation during September 2025. The company sees some margin improvement for the new furnaces, partially due to lower input costs and from reduced competition.

Railway track project: The high-quality railway track factory is expected to start construction in May in Dung Quat Complex and be completed during May 2027. The project would have a capex requirement of around VND14tn. Preliminary estimates of total steel demand for Vietnam railway projects are around 10m tons.

Reiterate BUY call with 12-month target price of VND33,500/share. We increase our NPAT forecast for 2025F and 2026F to VND17.1tn and VND22.2tn, respectively (up from VND15.3tn and VND21tn). This corresponds to YoY growth of 42.5% YoY and 29.4% YoY, and reflects lower input costs and reduced competition due to HRC AD duties on Chinese imports.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of FPT, with a 12-month target price of VND 129,600 (from VND 156,300/share to reflect the current uncertainty). We recommend “a buy on the dip” if the share price corrects further.

FPT upholds its previously announced 2025 revenue and PBT growth targets of 20% and 21% YoY respectively. However, management believes that potential macroeconomic risks and disruption to the global value chain (following the US tariff policy) could impose challenges for the company to stick to this guidance and maintain double-digit growth momentum in the upcoming years. Further, FPT expects to continue prioritizing key focus areas, including AI, semiconductor, automotive, digital transformation, and green transformation.

We lower our target P/E metrics for technology and education segments to 20x and the telecom segment to 14x. Such P/E levels are similar to that of peers, due to higher uncertainty over the medium term. Our previous respective P/E metrics for these segments are 25x, 23x and 17x.

2025 outlook: We expect revenue of VND 74.6 tn (+18% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 9.5 tn (+21% YoY), which will be driven primarily by the technology segment (nearly unchanged compared to our previous estimates).

2025 revenue target is set at VND 930.8 billion (+6.6% YoY), net income is targeted to flat at VND 302 billion.

Net income in 1Q25 surged by 106% YoY to VND 134 bn due to revenue recognition from the Tripod contract.

Our rating on the shares of SZC is Market Perform, with a 1-year TP of VND 34,200/share (reduced from VND 43,200/share to reflect our adjustment of 2026 leased price and beyond).

Net Revenue and NPAT Growth: The company targets a net revenue growth rate of -1% and a net profit after tax (NPAT) growth of +8% year-over-year (YoY) for 2025.

Margin Expansion and Management Optimism: Despite headwinds that pressure sector growth, SAB should see margin expansion in 2025. Management remains optimistic about long-term prospects.

Upgrade to OUTPERFORM from Market Perform: SAB’s current upside potential is 18% and dividend yield is approximately 10%.

Both revenue and PBT saw double-digit growth during 2024, supported by the acceleration of sales and improved cost control.

FOX’s respective targets for revenue and PBT during 2025 are VND 19.9 tn (+13.0% YoY) and VND 4.2 tn (+17.1% YoY). However, due to the most up-to-date tariff policy of the Trump administration, FOX is concerned that customers (especially business clients) may tighten their budget for IT services.

Long-term outlook includes opportunities and challenges. In which, ARPU growth is feasible in the future. Further, potential of satellite internet service could reshape the future of the global telecom industry. On the other hand, FOX management believes that the US reciprocal tariff policy might generate indirect impacts.

AGM highlights: The company has set a conservative net income guidance of VND 3 trillion for 2025, which is flat year-over-year. This cautious outlook is attributed to a shortage of apatite ore and a longer-than-expected licensing process for expanding capacity at Mine Site 25. Consequently, we expect DGC to experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid.

2025 CAPEX Capital expenditures for 2025 will primarily focus on the construction of a Chlo-alkali plant in Nghi Son, which is anticipated to commence operations in Q2 2026. Once fully operational, this plant is projected to generate VND 2 trillion in revenue and VND 200 billion in net income annually, representing approximately 6% of the company's 2024 net income.

Impact of US reciprocal tariff: Exports to the US account for approximately 2% of DGC's total revenue and could be subject to a reciprocal tax of less than 46%, in addition to existing import duty. Given the relatively small contribution of the US market to DGC's overall revenue, the impact is expected to be marginal.

Earnings rebounded to positive growth in 4Q24, driven by the recovery in yellow phosphorus sellingprice. We anticipate that this earnings growth will continue into 2025, supported by favorable selling price, resilient sales volume growth across most product categories, and increased usage of in-house apatite ore. However, due to the current apatite ore shortage in Vietnam, DGC may experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid. As a result, we have revised our 2025 net income estimate to VND 3.5 trillion (a 14% year-over-year increase, down from our previous estimate of VND 4.3 trillion).