Company Report

A strong first half is unlikely to be sustained. The robust 1H26 performance was supported in part by order frontloading ahead of tariff implementation, reducing visibility for the second half. Meanwhile, persistently high borrowing costs are expected to keep interest expenses elevated, while continued investment in operations should drive further SG&A growth.

Valuation reset reflects weaker near-term earnings outlook. We cut our 2026 NPAT forecast to VND362bn (-8% YoY) from VND436bn (+11% YoY) previously. Consequently, we lower our target price to VND19,200/share (from VND23,000), based on an equal weighting of DCF and P/E methodologies. Our target P/E multiple is reduced to 7x, below the five-year historical average of 9x, to reflect a more challenging earnings outlook.

Long-term investors may accumulate on further weakness. Despite near-term headwinds, we believe TNG’s consistent dividend policy provides downside support. Historically, the stock has traded at trough valuations as low as 3.6x P/E during the 2022 downturn.

Following the recent share price correction, we upgrade NT2 to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) while maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 27,000/share, implying 27% upside.

Investment thesis

We continue to view NT2 as one of the most attractive conventional power generators under our coverage, supported by two structural advantages:

•           Secured gas supply. NT2 remains one of the few gas-fired power plants benefiting from a long-term gas supply agreement with PV GAS (GAS: HOSE), providing greater fuel security amid tightening domestic gas availability.

•           Structurally lower cost base. The plant’s major machinery and equipment were fully depreciated in 4Q25, significantly reducing depreciation expenses and supporting stronger earnings quality from 2026 onward.

We downgrade our rating for HAH from BUY to Outperform with a target price of VND 63,500/share (implying 22.4% upside), supported by sustained earnings strength in 2026 and better mid-term visibility supported by tight feeder markets and ongoing fleet expansion.

Investment Thesis

•           Strong 1H2026 performance, supported by high charter rates, fleet additions (GREEN PARK and GREEN TIME).

•           Global trade volatility and rerouting dynamics (Red Sea/Cape route) continue to absorb effective capacity. Charter rates for feeder vessels maintains high base.

•           Structural imbalance in global fleet composition supports long-term demand for feeder-sized ships, favoring HAH with a strong capacity growth at a 5-year CAGR of 26%.

Strong earnings momentum in 5M26. According to management accounts, parent company revenue reached VND 398.9 billion, up 82.9% YoY, while pre-tax profit increased 69.7% YoY to VND 167 billion. The robust performance was primarily driven by a 146% YoY increase in rubber sales volume to 4,072 tonnes, supplemented by income from rubber plantation liquidation.

Land conversion to become the key earnings driver. DPR is well positioned to capitalize on the conversion of rubber plantations into industrial parks, supported by increasing industrial land scarcity. We estimate that approximately 3,500 hectares of rubber land—equivalent to around 40% of the company’s current cultivated area—will be converted for industrial parks and other developments during 2026–2030 under the land-use master plan for the former Binh Phuoc province. Based on our estimates, these conversions could unlock more than VND 3 trillion in compensation and monetization value, with earnings recognition expected to accelerate over 2026–2027.

Exceptionally strong balance sheet. DPR remains debt-free, with no short- or long-term borrowings. Its net cash position represents 67.1% of its current market capitalization, providing substantial financial flexibility while supporting an attractive dividend profile.

P-Lab, PNJ's wholly owned subsidiary specializing in gold, diamond and gemstone certification services, has issued a statement regarding the investigation of its former CEO, Mr. Dang Ngoc Thao, in connection with alleged smuggling activities. Management emphasized that the matter relates to individual legal responsibility and remains under review by the relevant authorities. The company also confirmed its commitment to fully cooperate with regulators and stated that certification services continue to operate normally without disruption to broader business operations.

We upgrade VEA to OUTPERFORM and raise our 12-month target price to VND38,000/share (from VND34,000). The regulatory headwinds that drove our previous downgrade have resolved at better-than-expected outcomes, Honda Vietnam volumes have held through the policy transition, and the dividend yield alone delivers enough returns without requiring a P/E re-rating.

Investment Thesis

•           The worst is behind. Regulatory shocks resolved without significant damage to Honda volumes. Honda 5M26 motorbike sales +1.3% YoY, broadly flat through the policy transition.

•           EV transition is a multi-year, subsidy-dependent story. Regional precedent confirms that displacement of a strong incumbent (Honda) without a hard regulatory mandate is slow.

•           Volume stability is the key. We expect demand for Honda/Toyota/Ford to outlast the current subsidy-driven EV expansion phase.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on MCH while lowering our 12-month target price to VND 126,000/share (from VND 130,000/share), primarily reflecting a higher cost of equity amid rising interest rates and less supportive equity market conditions. At the current share price, MCH is trading at 21.8x 2026F P/E, above its five-year historical average of 19.0x, suggesting limited valuation upside despite the company’s resilient operating fundamentals.

Investment highlights

Recovery in the general trade (GT) channel is expected to remain a key growth driver.

Attractive dividend policy, with a cash dividend equivalent to 50% of par value (approximately 4% dividend yield).

Valuation remains demanding relative to regional and domestic consumer peers (2026F P/E: 21.8x for MCH vs. 13.7x for SAB and 13.1x for VNM).

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on KDH with a 12-month target price of VND 27,300/share, implying 25.5% upside.

KDH remains one of our preferred residential developers, supported by its sizeable, legally clear landbank in Ho Chi Minh City and strong execution track record.

We expect presales to accelerate on the back of a robust project pipeline in prime locations, with presales value forecast at VND 6.4tn in 2026 (+47% YoY) and VND 7.2tn in 2027 (+13% YoY).

Valuation remains compelling. KDH is trading at 1.3x trailing P/B, representing a c.40% discount to its five-year average of 2.2x and broadly in line with the trough valuation seen in 2022.

Catalogue sales price increase provides durability for margins: BMP has adjusted its selling price for PVC products on average 15% since early April 2026 as a reaction to the spiked input costs (PVC resin – a downstream product of crude oil). With the Middle East conflict stabilizing and input cost reverting back to pre-conflict range, we can expect positive dynamics for BMP’s GPM similar to the post-COVID period.

Better/more favorable weather setup support construction activity, indirectly help maintain BMP’s output volume.

Recently expanded materials warehouse increased BMP’s input runway to over 2 months, enabling possibility for BMP to normalize/avoid high cost period with supply contracts signed prior to March.

Consistent, high dividends: BMP is slowly transitioning into a stable dividend model with a payout ratio of 99%, translating to an average dividends yield (effectively earnings yield) of over 10%.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on MSN, with a revised SOTP-based target price of VND 101,000. At 2026F P/E of 14.7x, the stock now trades at a significantly more attractive valuation compared to the post–WinCommerce acquisition peak of ~75x. We upgrade our 2026 earnings forecast, with net profit expected to reach VND 10.4 trillion (+53% YoY), reflecting stronger-than-anticipated operating performance.

Investment Thesis

•           WinCommerce (WCM): Structural beneficiary of tax reform shifting household businesses from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation—accelerating formalization and driving share gains for modern trade.

•           Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR): Elevated tungsten prices provide a meaningful uplift to non-core earnings, supporting overall profitability in 2026.

•           Balance sheet management: Offshore loan refinancing at lower rates helps offset rising domestic funding costs, improving financial resilience.

Rubber prices remain supportive, providing a solid earnings base in 2026. Natural rubber prices increased 32% YoY and 28% YTD as of May 2026, supported by weather-related supply disruptions in major producing countries, particularly Thailand, alongside firmer oil prices amid continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We forecast average rubber selling prices to increase 12% YoY to VND 55 million/ton in 2026. Consequently, rubber revenue is projected to reach VND 1.83 trillion (+12% YoY), while sales volume is expected to remain broadly stable at 28,200 tons (-1% YoY). Gross margin is forecast to expand to 29.7%, up 3.3 percentage points YoY.

2026 marks the peak earnings recognition period for industrial land conversion compensation. According to company disclosures, PHR expects to recognize compensation income related to rubber plantation conversion for major industrial park developments during 2026–2027, including VND 1,440 billion from the Thaco Mechanical & Supporting Industry Complex and VND 2,104 billion from the remaining compensation associated with the VSIP 3 project. We estimate that approximately VND 1.5 trillion of compensation income will be recognized in 2026 alone, driving profit before tax to VND 2,072 billion, equivalent to a 243% YoY increase. This represents the strongest earnings contribution from land conversion activities in the company’s recent history.

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. As of 1Q26, PHR held net cash of VND 2.37 trillion, equivalent to 25.3% of its current market capitalization. The company’s robust cash position not only strengthens financial flexibility but also supports higher financial income amid a rising interest rate environment.

Sales price revisions provide durability to margins: YTD 2026, HT1 has adjusted its selling price on average 9%, broadly successful in offloading the risen input costs (coal primarily), without impairing volume growth (1Q26 sales volume +13.9% YoY).

HT1 dominant Southern positioning allow strong support from major infrastructure projects: Long Thanh International Airport, Ring Roads 3 and 4, and the Southern North-South Expressway network continue supporting cement demand recovery in HT1’s core operating markets, where management expects demand growth of 6-7% YoY in 2026.

Margin recovery increasingly supported by operating leverage and market positioning: Trade discounts have begun normalizing from 2025 peaks, while HT1’s dominant Southern distribution network and scale advantage position the company to benefit disproportionately as demand recovery broadens.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for NT2 but revise down our target price to VND 27,000/share (from VND 30,000/share previously), implying 17% upside. The target price adjustment reflects a 12% reduction in our 2026 NPAT forecast.

Investment thesis

Secured gas supply advantage: NT2 remains among a limited group of power generators with long-term gas supply agreements with PV GAS, providing relatively strong fuel security and operational visibility.

Lower structural cost base: The company’s machinery and equipment were fully depreciated in 4Q25, resulting in a structurally lower depreciation burden and improved cost efficiency from 2026 onward.

High availability supporting system needs: With no major or medium scheduled maintenance in 2026–2027, NT2 is expected to maintain elevated plant availability, enhancing its role in supporting system stability during periods of rising electricity demand.

At the current share price, HSG is trading at 2026F–2027F forward P/E multiples of 19.7x and 19.3x, respectively — a valuation that appears demanding relative to its modest earnings growth outlook over the next two years and the structurally competitive nature of the galvanized steel industry.

While 2H FY2026 earnings are expected to improve sequentially from 1H FY2026, the recovery largely reflects normalization from a weak base rather than a meaningful acceleration in growth. Meanwhile, the Hoa Sen Home expansion story remains in an investment phase and is still far from contributing materially to consolidated earnings.

Following our revised estimates, we lower our target price to VND 12,900/share (from VND 14,300/share), implying 2.8% upside from the current price, and maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG. In our view, the stock would require a more meaningful valuation discount to adequately reflect its declining earnings trajectory and execution risks.