Company Report

Sustained double-digit growth in Vietnam’s ICT and consumer electronics market

Strong expansion momentum from the Erablue chain in Indonesia

Monetization of existing infrastructure through higher-margin ancillary services, including utility payments, agent banking, technician services, and e-commerce platforms

After two decades of strong earnings growth, DMX appears well-positioned to sustain double-digit expansion over the next five years. Management targets revenue of VND 182 trillion and net profit of VND 13 trillion by 2030, implying 2026–2030 CAGR of 11% for revenue and 16% for earnings.

In Vietnam, DMX continues to benefit from its dominant position in the ICT and consumer electronics retail market, where it currently holds approximately 40% market share. The remaining market remains highly fragmented, with many smaller competitors facing profitability challenges, providing room for further consolidation and share gains.

Internationally, Indonesia represents a compelling long-term growth opportunity. The country’s modern retail penetration in consumer electronics remains relatively low, creating favorable conditions for organized retail expansion. DMX plans to scale its Erablue chain to 1,000 stores by 2030, up from 181 stores in 2025.

In addition, DMX is increasingly leveraging its nationwide infrastructure and MWG’s customer ecosystem of approximately 40 million users to cross-sell higher-margin services. These include utility payment solutions, agent banking, technician services, and integrated e-commerce offerings, which could support margin expansion, recurring revenue streams, and stronger customer retention over time.

We reiterate OUTPERFORM on Gemadept with a revised target price of VND 75,000/share (from VND 58,800/share). The upgrade reflects stronger 2025F–2026F earnings forecasts and reduced tariff risks, supporting a re-rating case. Near-term catalysts include: (i) potential tariff hikes at deep-sea ports, (ii) favorable U.S. treatment of transshipment cargo, (iii) rubber plantation divestment progress, and (iv) project milestones such as Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3’s earlier launch and legal clearance for Gemalink Phase 2A.

2Q25 Results: Gemadept delivered strong results, with revenue up 30% YoY/17% QoQ and pretax profit rising ~YoY/16% QoQ to VND 677bn, broadly in line with our expectations. Growth was supported by exporters frontloading shipments to the U.S. ahead of Liberation Day tariff implementation.

Key Discussion Highlights

•           Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 (NDV3): Construction has been accelerated, with operations now targeted for Oct 2025 (vs. Jan 2026 initially).

•           Rubber Plantation Divestment: Negotiations with potential buyers are ongoing, with the deal expected to be finalized soon.

•           Deep-Sea Port Tariff Hike: A tariff increase of around 10% could be implemented as early as 3Q25, with Gemalink among the key beneficiaries.

•           5-Year Strategic Plan: Management is preparing a roadmap for 2026–2030, targeting earnings CAGR at least in line with the 2021–2025 period. The plan will be presented for shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM.

2025 AGM highlights

CMG has set an ambitious target of reaching USD 1 billion in annual revenue by 2028, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20–30% over 2025–2028—significantly higher than the 12% CAGR achieved during 2020–2024. This aggressive growth plan is underpinned by a strategic investment phase, particularly in 2023–2024, which has temporarily constrained earnings growth. In 2024, net profit after tax (NPAT) rose by only 6% YoY, reflecting pressure from elevated fixed costs. Management has indicated that this trend may persist in the medium term as the company prioritizes long-term scalability and market positioning.

2024 performance review

CMG reported 12% YoY revenue growth and 6% YoY net profit (NPAT) growth in 2024. The Technology & Solutions and Digital Infrastructure segments were the primary contributors to topline expansion. However, the Research & Education segment continued to operate at a loss and is expected to take additional time to reach breakeven.

2025 guidance

For 2025, CMG targets VND 9.8 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 464 billion in NPAT (+9% YoY). These projections reflect ongoing investment pressures that may continue to weigh on profitability. To support its long-term growth ambitions, CMG has opted to suspend cash dividends for 2024. Notably, the company has recently received investment approval for a hyperscale data center project, reinforcing its commitment to infrastructure expansion.

In 2025, both electricity output and net profit after tax (NPAT) are projected to recover gradually, with YoY growth of approximately 9% and 5%, respectively. This improvement is expected to be supported by contributions from all power plants across the portfolio. Additionally, PGV is anticipated to continue optimizing the thermal power segment by reducing heating rates, thereby enhancing long-term operational efficiency.

It is important to note that the NPAT target does not account for potential FX compensation income exceeding VND 5 trillion, related to the remaining amount from 2019 and the period from 2020 to 2024. This amount represents roughly 35% of the company’s consolidated book equity or approximately 25% of its current market capitalization. In the short term, recognition of this income may be delayed due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding EVN’s financial position.

Furthermore, the company reported that electricity output for the first five months of 2025 reached 10.8 billion kWh, marking a modest 0.5% YoY increase. Preliminary profit before tax (PBT) for the same period was VND 470 billion, achieving over 75% of the corresponding full-year guidance.

MSN reported better-than-expected 1Q25 results, with revenue of VND 19 tn (flat YoY, +11% YoY LFL comparison), NPAT of VND 983 bn (+105% YoY), and NPATMI VND 394 bn (+277% YoY). Solid performance was achieved at all three core businesses (MCH, WCM and MML), while the loss from its non-core mining business (MSR) was substantially reduced. MSN incurred one-off expenses of VND 229 bn related to the Wineco and Mobicast goodwill write-offs, along with other non-operating activities. Net debt/EBITDA was maintained around 2.9x for the last three quarters, in line with company guidance. 

Investment view: MSN’s 2025 earnings growth is to be fueled by continuous improvement in the core consumer-retail business, buttressed by the outstanding performance of the meat business given elevated pork prices and reduced losses associated with the non-core mining business. Given the 1Q25 earnings result, we believe that MSN will be able to exceed base case earnings guidance for 2025.

Revenue and net profit during 1Q25 are estimated at VND37tn and VND3.3tn, respectively, providing strong growth of 22%YoY and 16% YoY reflective of substantial sales growth during March with the contribution of the first furnace of Dung Quat 2. HPG‘s construction steel, HRC and billet sales volume increased by 29% YoY to 2.4m tons in 1Q25.

2025 business plan: Consolidated revenue of VND170tn, up 21.4% YoY, and consolidated NPAT of VND15tn, up 25% YoY.

Progress of Dung Quat 2 project: Phase 1 (the first blast furnace) has commenced operation and contributed to the March result. The second furnace is expected to commence operation during September 2025. The company sees some margin improvement for the new furnaces, partially due to lower input costs and from reduced competition.

Railway track project: The high-quality railway track factory is expected to start construction in May in Dung Quat Complex and be completed during May 2027. The project would have a capex requirement of around VND14tn. Preliminary estimates of total steel demand for Vietnam railway projects are around 10m tons.

Reiterate BUY call with 12-month target price of VND33,500/share. We increase our NPAT forecast for 2025F and 2026F to VND17.1tn and VND22.2tn, respectively (up from VND15.3tn and VND21tn). This corresponds to YoY growth of 42.5% YoY and 29.4% YoY, and reflects lower input costs and reduced competition due to HRC AD duties on Chinese imports.

HHV's consolidated sales and net earnings are projected to reach VND 3,584 billion and VND 555 billion, respectively, representing year-over-year (YoY) increases of 8% and 12%.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model provides a one-year target price of VND 13,000 per share. We reiterate our BUY rating on HHV shares.

Despite a recent 20% drawdown in the stock price over the past five days due to market correction, HHV should not be significantly impacted by changes in US and other countries' tariff policies. We believe HHV stock presents a compelling opportunity.

AGM highlights: The company has set a conservative net income guidance of VND 3 trillion for 2025, which is flat year-over-year. This cautious outlook is attributed to a shortage of apatite ore and a longer-than-expected licensing process for expanding capacity at Mine Site 25. Consequently, we expect DGC to experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid.

2025 CAPEX Capital expenditures for 2025 will primarily focus on the construction of a Chlo-alkali plant in Nghi Son, which is anticipated to commence operations in Q2 2026. Once fully operational, this plant is projected to generate VND 2 trillion in revenue and VND 200 billion in net income annually, representing approximately 6% of the company's 2024 net income.

Impact of US reciprocal tariff: Exports to the US account for approximately 2% of DGC's total revenue and could be subject to a reciprocal tax of less than 46%, in addition to existing import duty. Given the relatively small contribution of the US market to DGC's overall revenue, the impact is expected to be marginal.

Earnings rebounded to positive growth in 4Q24, driven by the recovery in yellow phosphorus sellingprice. We anticipate that this earnings growth will continue into 2025, supported by favorable selling price, resilient sales volume growth across most product categories, and increased usage of in-house apatite ore. However, due to the current apatite ore shortage in Vietnam, DGC may experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid. As a result, we have revised our 2025 net income estimate to VND 3.5 trillion (a 14% year-over-year increase, down from our previous estimate of VND 4.3 trillion).

PNJ has released AGM documents, surprising us with decelerating earnings growth guidance for 2025 (VND 1.96 tn, -7% YoY). This likely reflects the continued challenges faced by jewelry retailers due to the gold material shortage, which has made it difficult to pass elevated gold material costs onto customers as those tend to favor gold bars/rings over gold jewelry in the rising gold price environment. Consequently, we trim our 2025 net income estimate to VND 2.24 tn (+6% YoY, from VND 2.5 tn). Our 2025 net income estimate is higher than PNJ guidance as we believe that the company has adopted too conservative a stance in target setting. Our new target price for the shares of PNJ is VND 97,500/share. With a 35% upside, we reiterate our BUY recommendation. PNJ may face gold material shortages and an indirect impact from the US tariff increase (up to 46%) in the short term. However, the stock's current valuation is very compelling, with a forecast 2025F P/E of 12x, which is significantly below the 16.5x average over the past three years.

Maintain MARKET PERFORM rating, with revised 1Y target price of VND 18,000/share (from VND 20,000/share). We revise down our FY 2025 NPAT estimates to VND 604 bn (from VND 699 bn) to reflect tougher industry outlook and lower ASP assumption. We maintain our conservative view on HSG due to demanding multiples and weak sector outlook. The 2025F PE and EV/EBITDA remain quite rich at 18x and 7.2x, respectively.

During the analyst meeting, the management reaffirmed PNJ’s ability to gain market share, though they still expressed concern over the gold shortage issue. This is in line with our recent view on PNJ that the gold shortage issue may still linger in 2025. The gold price has retreated recently after reaching an all-time high in early February. However, the price correction is quite negligible, and the gold flow on the market remains tight. As such, a change in Decree 24/2012/ND-CP (expected in September 2025) should be crucial to create conditions for jewelry and gold retailers to grow in the long term.

PNJ will publish a detailed 2025 financial plan in late March, along with AGM documents. We currently forecast an expanded net income for PNJ in 2025 to VND 2.5 trillion (+17% YoY) and maintain a BUY recommendation with a 1-year target price of VND 123,000 per share.

During the 2024 AGM, the company has stated that it will lever its current business and invest into the logistics business to integrate deeper into the production and distribution supply chain, and help complete the nationwide logistics network, which would lower logistic costs across the country. The company is considering 3 options: B2B logistics for domestic manufacturers, B2C delivery for cross-border ecommerce, and B2B smart border logistics services.

In Dec 2024, VTP will commence operation its first investment in B2B smart border logistics services in Huu Nghi Border Gate – Lang Son province, naming Viettel Lang Son Logistic Park. The project is based on a 144-ha leased infrastructure from Lang Son Transshipment Joint Stock Company (the investor of the infrastructure, total capex of VND 3.3 trillion) and Viettel Post would be the operator of the project.

KDH recorded net sales of VND 334 bn (-21.5% YoY, -28.9% QoQ) and NPAT of VND 64 bn (-68.4% YoY, +1.9% QoQ). Fewer units in the Classia project were handed over during 1Q24. The Classia project has been on sales and delivered since September 2022 with a total of 176 units, and at 1Q24, the Classia project only has between 10-15 units left for sales. Also, we understand KDH sold some land plots in its inventory to other investors which KDH acquired before, and recorded revenue from these sales with a lower margin when compared with retail sales.  As per the 2024 AGM, KDH management is expected to hand over units sold from The Privia project during 4Q24. From now until 4Q24, KDH will have only a few units in The Classia project left for sales and record revenue following the sales. Thus, from Q2 through Q3 2024, we expect KDH to achieve minimal business performance in term of revenue and profit until 4Q24, when KDH is expected to deliver units in The Privia project and record this revenue from the project. As a result, we expect KDH to achieve 2024 revenue and NPATMI of VND 3.47 tn (+66.1% YoY) and VND 825 bn (+15.3% YoY) respectively.