Company Report

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for NT2 but revise down our target price to VND 27,000/share (from VND 30,000/share previously), implying 17% upside. The target price adjustment reflects a 12% reduction in our 2026 NPAT forecast.

Investment thesis

Secured gas supply advantage: NT2 remains among a limited group of power generators with long-term gas supply agreements with PV GAS, providing relatively strong fuel security and operational visibility.

Lower structural cost base: The company’s machinery and equipment were fully depreciated in 4Q25, resulting in a structurally lower depreciation burden and improved cost efficiency from 2026 onward.

High availability supporting system needs: With no major or medium scheduled maintenance in 2026–2027, NT2 is expected to maintain elevated plant availability, enhancing its role in supporting system stability during periods of rising electricity demand.

Sustained double-digit growth in Vietnam’s ICT and consumer electronics market

Strong expansion momentum from the Erablue chain in Indonesia

Monetization of existing infrastructure through higher-margin ancillary services, including utility payments, agent banking, technician services, and e-commerce platforms

After two decades of strong earnings growth, DMX appears well-positioned to sustain double-digit expansion over the next five years. Management targets revenue of VND 182 trillion and net profit of VND 13 trillion by 2030, implying 2026–2030 CAGR of 11% for revenue and 16% for earnings.

In Vietnam, DMX continues to benefit from its dominant position in the ICT and consumer electronics retail market, where it currently holds approximately 40% market share. The remaining market remains highly fragmented, with many smaller competitors facing profitability challenges, providing room for further consolidation and share gains.

Internationally, Indonesia represents a compelling long-term growth opportunity. The country’s modern retail penetration in consumer electronics remains relatively low, creating favorable conditions for organized retail expansion. DMX plans to scale its Erablue chain to 1,000 stores by 2030, up from 181 stores in 2025.

In addition, DMX is increasingly leveraging its nationwide infrastructure and MWG’s customer ecosystem of approximately 40 million users to cross-sell higher-margin services. These include utility payment solutions, agent banking, technician services, and integrated e-commerce offerings, which could support margin expansion, recurring revenue streams, and stronger customer retention over time.

Beneficiary of knock-on effects from Middle East disruptions. Supply-side shocks—particularly in fertilizers and logistics—are expected to tighten global agricultural markets and support pricing. PAN is well positioned to capture this upside, given its integrated exposure across the agri-food value chain.

Compelling valuation within the EM agri-food universe. PAN is trading at undemanding multiples relative to its growth outlook and return on equity potential. The market continues to price the company as a cyclical name, underappreciating its transition toward a structurally improving, integrated agri-food platform.

Upside from asset monetization and capital redeployment. The Bibica divestment, alongside potential monetization of real estate and land bank assets, offers scope for value unlocking. These initiatives should also enhance capital allocation efficiency and support a potential re-rating.

We upgrade our rating for HAH to BUY with a target price of VND 86,500/share (implying 28.9% upside), reflecting sustained earnings strength in 2025 and improved 2026 visibility supported by structurally tight feeder markets and ongoing fleet expansion.

We forecast FY2026 NPATMI of VND 1,390bn (+18.4% YoY), driven by higher fleet capacity, increasing time charter rates, and continued operating leverage. HAH is currently trading at 8.52x 2026F P/E, below its historical mid-cycle averages. We believe current valuation does not fully reflect the company’s expansion roadmap toward ~80,000 TEUs by 2029 and its exposure to structurally undersupplied feeder segments.

Investment Thesis

•           Earnings recovery has normalized and structurally strengthened since 2H2025, supported by sustained charter rates and incremental fleet additions (Haian Zeta and Haian Iris), with operating leverage increasingly visible in margins.

•           Global trade volatility and rerouting dynamics (Red Sea/Cape route) continue to absorb effective capacity, raising charter rates - particularly for feeder vessels where supply growth remains limited relative to mega-vessel deliveries.

•           Structural imbalance in global fleet composition (dominance of Neo-Panamax+ newbuilds) reinforces long-term demand for feeder-sized ships, positioning HAH favorably within regional and intra-Asia routes with a strong capacity growth at a 5-year CAGR of 26.3%.

Structural low-cost producer with resilient margins: Pig farming contributes approximately 46% of revenue and 62% of 9M25 gross profit. HPA operates at the lower end of the industry cost curve, which limits downside risk even under normalized hog price conditions and supports margin resilience across cycles.

Defensible economics driven by premium genetics and a bundled model: HPA’s integrated sow–feed bundling model functions as a quasi-franchise, enhancing customer stickiness and supporting premium pricing over the long term. We see this as a key differentiator relative to smaller or less integrated peers.

Compelling valuation despite superior fundamentals: HPA trades at a 2025F P/E of 7.6x, a substantial discount to the sector average of ~15x. While the company commands a higher-than-average P/B of 3.7x, this is justified by structurally higher margins, stronger ROE, and a conservative balance sheet with D/E of 0.3x.

We reiterate OUTPERFORM on Gemadept with a revised target price of VND 75,000/share (from VND 58,800/share). The upgrade reflects stronger 2025F–2026F earnings forecasts and reduced tariff risks, supporting a re-rating case. Near-term catalysts include: (i) potential tariff hikes at deep-sea ports, (ii) favorable U.S. treatment of transshipment cargo, (iii) rubber plantation divestment progress, and (iv) project milestones such as Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3’s earlier launch and legal clearance for Gemalink Phase 2A.

2Q25 Results: Gemadept delivered strong results, with revenue up 30% YoY/17% QoQ and pretax profit rising ~YoY/16% QoQ to VND 677bn, broadly in line with our expectations. Growth was supported by exporters frontloading shipments to the U.S. ahead of Liberation Day tariff implementation.

Key Discussion Highlights

•           Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 (NDV3): Construction has been accelerated, with operations now targeted for Oct 2025 (vs. Jan 2026 initially).

•           Rubber Plantation Divestment: Negotiations with potential buyers are ongoing, with the deal expected to be finalized soon.

•           Deep-Sea Port Tariff Hike: A tariff increase of around 10% could be implemented as early as 3Q25, with Gemalink among the key beneficiaries.

•           5-Year Strategic Plan: Management is preparing a roadmap for 2026–2030, targeting earnings CAGR at least in line with the 2021–2025 period. The plan will be presented for shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM.

Upcoming Listing & Valuation

F88 is set to list 8.26 million shares on UPCoM on August 8, 2025, with a reference price of VND 634,900 per share. This pricing implies a market capitalization of approximately VND 5.2 trillion (USD 200 million), corresponding to a 2Q25 price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.7x and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.3x. The company’s profitability remains compelling, with a return on assets (ROA) of 9.6% and return on equity (ROE) of 27.5%.

Business Model & Growth Trajectory

Founded in 2013, F88 operates a scalable, collateral-backed lending model focused on financially underserved customer segments. The company leverages both physical distribution—via a nationwide network of 888 stores—and digital engagement through its proprietary platforms. F88 has delivered exceptional growth, with both loan book and revenue registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 77–79% between 2019 and 2025. Its core offerings include:

* Direct secured lending, primarily against motorbikes and automobiles; and

* Loan origination and servicing for CIMB Bank, underpinned by a buyback clause on non-performing loans.

Financial Performance & Outlook

In the first half of 2025, F88’s pre-tax profit surged 213% year-on-year to VND 321 billion, reaching 48% of its full-year target. For the full year, the company projects:

* 43% growth in loan portfolio

* 50% growth in pre-tax profit

Growth will be driven by network expansion, increased adoption of the MyF88 mobile application, and broader cross-selling of insurance and financial products across its customer base.

Reiterate BUY rating with a revised 12-month TP of VND33,000/share (from VND27,900 adjusted for stock dividend), as we roll over our basis to mid-2026E (from 2025E) for our P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA targets. We maintain our 2025E revenue of VND171tn (+22% YoY) and NPAT of VND17.1tn (+42.5% YoY), translating to a net margin of 10%. As such, we expect 2H25E revenue of VND97tn (+40% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.5tn (+42% YoY).

In 2Q25, HPG reported impressive financial results, with bottom line coming in strong with NPAT of VND4.3tn (+28.5% YoY and 27.3% QoQ), in line with our expectation and market consensus.

Steel net margin improved healthily by 2.3pp to 10.3%, the highest level since 1Q21, from 8% in 1Q25 as well as 8% in 2Q24, thanks to lower input cost and higher selling prices.

Agriculture and Real Estate also contributed strongly to 2Q25 growth. Agriculture continued to show strength this quarter thanks to higher hog prices, leading to a 2Q25 NPAT of VND532bn (+136% YoY and 31% QoQ), while the Real Estate segment also posted strong NPAT of VND286bn (+360% YoY) even though revenue only came in at VND139bn (+4% YoY), thanks to a one-off gain from re-evaluation of land use rights fee.

2025 AGM highlights

CMG has set an ambitious target of reaching USD 1 billion in annual revenue by 2028, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20–30% over 2025–2028—significantly higher than the 12% CAGR achieved during 2020–2024. This aggressive growth plan is underpinned by a strategic investment phase, particularly in 2023–2024, which has temporarily constrained earnings growth. In 2024, net profit after tax (NPAT) rose by only 6% YoY, reflecting pressure from elevated fixed costs. Management has indicated that this trend may persist in the medium term as the company prioritizes long-term scalability and market positioning.

2024 performance review

CMG reported 12% YoY revenue growth and 6% YoY net profit (NPAT) growth in 2024. The Technology & Solutions and Digital Infrastructure segments were the primary contributors to topline expansion. However, the Research & Education segment continued to operate at a loss and is expected to take additional time to reach breakeven.

2025 guidance

For 2025, CMG targets VND 9.8 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 464 billion in NPAT (+9% YoY). These projections reflect ongoing investment pressures that may continue to weigh on profitability. To support its long-term growth ambitions, CMG has opted to suspend cash dividends for 2024. Notably, the company has recently received investment approval for a hyperscale data center project, reinforcing its commitment to infrastructure expansion.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on NT2, maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 21,500/share, implying a 16% upside. Our net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company’s recovery trajectory following a low earnings base in 2024.

1Q25 performance: NT2’s 1Q25 results were in line with our expectations, reporting net profit of VND 37 billion, a significant turnaround from the VND 158 billion net loss in 1Q24. This improvement was primarily driven by a higher allocation of contracted volume (Qc).

Management guidance: NT2 projects a 26% YoY increase in power output and a 31% rise in core profit before tax (PBT) in 2025, excluding potential gains from foreign exchange (FX) loss compensation and forest environmental service fees (vs. our core PBT growth forecast of 199% YoY). We view this guidance as conservative, reflecting management’s caution amid uncertainties surrounding H2 2025 Qc allocations, gas price rise, payment delays from EVN, and ongoing gas supply constraints.

Strategic developments: NT2 is actively engaging with EVN/EPTC and PVN to incorporate provisions into the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) that would allow the use of LNG for power generation - an important step toward mitigating/resolve long-term gas supply risks.

We upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) on the shares of CTR, with a 12-month target price of VND 102,400/share (from VND 135,000/share) (representing 15% upside). Our lower target price reflects our reduced projections for the 2026-2030 period NPAT CAGR, at between 9%-10% (from between 10%-15%), as we lower our 2025 revenue estimate for residential construction and the infrastructure leasing segments.

1Q25 results exhibited single-digit growth, at 4% and 5% YoY for revenue and NPAT, respectively, which was driven by the expansion in the number of BTS sites (infrastructure leasing) and revenue from solar energy solutions, M&E, and ICT (solutions & technical services). This result was well within our expectations.

2025 outlook: We forecast revenue and NPAT of VND 13.7 tn (+9% YoY) and VND 563 bn (+5% YoY), respectively, whereby the construction segment could enjoy higher growth from 2Q25 (vs. 2% YoY during 1Q25). Further, 1Q25 growth momentum in infrastructure leasing and solutions & technical services should continue near-term. Our overall projection is also similar to that of the company’s 2025 guidance.

2025-2030 development strategy: From 2025, CTR expects to continue its international market expansion strategy and maintaining domestic market strength, especially leadership in Vietnam TowerCo and operation businesses. The earnings CAGR guidance during this period is between 5%-10%. Additionally, we believe that the ongoing need of 5G infrastructure development in Vietnam should underpin CTR’s long-term BTS expansion.

Short-term view: Short-term share price performance may face challenges due to significant selling pressure amid uncertainties surrounding the export outlook. However, this could present a strategic entry point for investors, as the company is projected to deliver robust earnings growth of 34% YoY in 2025 and decent longer term growth.

Long term view: Improvement in BHX earnings should be the main growth driver from 2026, while earnings growth of the ICT & CE chains will likely normalize after strong recovery during 2024. We estimate a 2026-2028F net income CAGR of between 15-20%.  

We maintain a MARKET PERFORM rating but lower our 12-month target price to VND 12,200/share (from VND 12,600) on the shares of POW (representing 1% upside), as we revise down our 2025-2026 core NPATMI estimates by 45%-47%, mainly due to 1) 2024 lower-than-expected results and 2) our projection delay of Nhon Trach 3& 4 project that indicates a higher pressure for the 2026 earnings outlook. Meanwhile, we remain nearly unchanged for the long-term earnings outlook.

2025 outlook: We remain cautious over the operational performance during the early years of the Nhon Trach 3&4 project launch due to depreciation and financing costs, as a sufficient long-term contracted volume (Qc) has not been approved. Relevant to 2025 financial projections, last year POW had fully realized ~VND 1 tn of the compensation related to Vung Ang 1’s Generator 1 technical issues, which is not likely to repeat this year. Hence, we project a 48% YoY NPATMI decline for the year - equivalent to a 26% YoY decline for core NPATMI (excluding the 4Q24 other income that is related to the above one-off compensation) - despite the recoveries at Nhon Trach 2 (from 2024 low base) and Dakdrinh (benefiting from La Niña or a neutral weather pattern) plants, and the profit from the newly acquired Nam Non hydropower plant.

PAN Group posted improvement in key metrics during 4Q24, with net revenue and NPAT of VND 4.27tn (+2% YoY) and 427bn (+13% YoY), beating our NPAT expectation by 15%. 4Q24 growth continued to power an outstanding growth rate to cap off FY2024.

Strong profit growth on a YoY basis were seen in shrimp export (+114%), pangasius exports (+41%), dried nuts & fruit (+21%), while the agricultural chemicals & disinfectants segment remained strong. Seed, packaged rice and confectionery segments decreased slightly by 8-10% due to seasonal factors (last fall’s typhoon, high input costs). GPM increased by 140 bps to 25.2%, mostly thanks to new product/market expansion and lower costs (shipping costs & aqua feed costs).

First time FY NPAT exceeded 1 trillion VND.  PAN posted 2024 consolidated net revenue and NPAT of 16.2tn (+23% YoY) and 1.15tn (+40% YoY) respectively, beating our NPAT expectation by 6%. The company has surpassed its annual NPAT target goal by 33%, mostly thanks to strong performances of publicly traded subsidiaries such as VFG, NSC, and FMC. Excluding one-off income from VFG, PAN’s core NPATMI still recorded a 38% YoY growth (VND 560bn). Looking forward to 2025, the company expects to see more growth from aquaculture and packaged food exports, as well as consumption recovery among Vietnamese consumers.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on VHM with a new target price of VND 47,400/share. 

Amendment of Cooperation Agreement with Vingroup has accelerated Vinhomes’ plan to launch new projects. Following the decision to amend the cooperation agreement with Vingroup, VHM is taking decisive action, including plan to acquire Vinhomes Wonder Park from Vingroup and to launch two new megaprojects: one in Long An and Quang Ninh province each, as well as a smaller project in Haiphong in 2025. Consequently, we anticipate presales to reach VND 139.6 tn during 2025, reflecting an 8.1% YoY increase. This follows robust growth of 48.4% during 2024, with estimated presales of VND 129.1 tn.

For FY2024, we expect VHM to achieve revenue and NPATMI of VND 98.7 tn (-4.7% YoY) and VND 34.4 tn (+3.0% YoY), respectively, driven primarily by strong recognition of Vinhomes Royal Island. For FY2025, revenue and NPATMI are forecasted to be VND 102.5 tn (+3.8% YoY) and VND 34.2 tn (-0.4% YoY), respectively, with major earnings streaming from Royal Island and new projects, including Wonder Park in Hanoi and Duong Kinh in Haiphong. Our revised 2025 NPATMI forecast is lower than previous estimates of VND40.9 tn due to reduction in profit contribution of Vinhomes Global Gate.