Company Report

Rubber prices remain supportive, providing a solid earnings base in 2026. Natural rubber prices increased 32% YoY and 28% YTD as of May 2026, supported by weather-related supply disruptions in major producing countries, particularly Thailand, alongside firmer oil prices amid continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We forecast average rubber selling prices to increase 12% YoY to VND 55 million/ton in 2026. Consequently, rubber revenue is projected to reach VND 1.83 trillion (+12% YoY), while sales volume is expected to remain broadly stable at 28,200 tons (-1% YoY). Gross margin is forecast to expand to 29.7%, up 3.3 percentage points YoY.

2026 marks the peak earnings recognition period for industrial land conversion compensation. According to company disclosures, PHR expects to recognize compensation income related to rubber plantation conversion for major industrial park developments during 2026–2027, including VND 1,440 billion from the Thaco Mechanical & Supporting Industry Complex and VND 2,104 billion from the remaining compensation associated with the VSIP 3 project. We estimate that approximately VND 1.5 trillion of compensation income will be recognized in 2026 alone, driving profit before tax to VND 2,072 billion, equivalent to a 243% YoY increase. This represents the strongest earnings contribution from land conversion activities in the company’s recent history.

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. As of 1Q26, PHR held net cash of VND 2.37 trillion, equivalent to 25.3% of its current market capitalization. The company’s robust cash position not only strengthens financial flexibility but also supports higher financial income amid a rising interest rate environment.

GVR is currently trading at a forward P/E of 17x, below its 3-year historical average of 21.7x. We maintain a constructive stance on GVR, underpinned by its unrivaled rubber land bank of 377,797 hectares across key provinces including Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, and Tay Ninh. The planned conversion of over 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations into industrial park land represents a transformative growth driver, offering substantial long-term upside. Applying a SOTP valuation framework, we derive a 12-month target price of VND 36,200/share (1% down side) and reiterate our Market Perform rating.

Rubber prices remain elevated, underpinning 2026 earnings. In May 2026, prices rose 32% YoY and 28% YTD on weather-driven supply constraints, with Thailand facing heavy rainfall risks. Higher oil prices also lent support amid ongoing Middle East tensions. We project average rubber prices to rise 15% YoY to VND 58 million/ton. Rubber revenue is estimated at VND 26.7 trillion (+12% YoY), with consumption volume expected to reach 513,870 tons (-4% YoY) in 2026. Gross margin expected to reach 28%, up 2ppt YoY.

We expect income from the conversion of rubber plantation land into industrial park land. GVR is progressing legal and investment approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, with a strategic focus on southern provinces. In 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion in pre-tax profit, assuming 1,500 ha of converted land in Dong Nai and Binh Duong (old).

Financial health remains solid. In 1Q26, GVR reported net cash of VND 25.8 trillion, equivalent to 17.3% of market capitalization. We believe the company’s strong cash position will support higher financial income as deposit rates trend upward.

We expect Vingroup to deliver strong earnings growth in FY26, supported primarily by robust property sales momentum at Vinhomes. Vinhomes’s FY26 presales value is forecasted to increase 28% YoY to VND 262.2tn, driven by ongoing projects and three new launches. Bulk sales transactions are expected to remain the primary contributor to total presales value.

VinFast is expected to maintain strong volume growth, with automobile sales projected at 270k units in 2026 (+37% YoY) and e-scooter sales reaching 750k units (+85% YoY). VinFast’s global EV expansion is likely to remain loss-making in the near term, acting as a key earnings headwind; however, if the proposed restructuring plan is approved, it could help improve VinFast’s earnings contribution through a more asset-light structure and reduced cost burden.

We forecast FY26 revenue of VND 455.9tn (+37% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 30.8tn (+171% YoY). FY26 earnings are expected to be driven mainly by (i) property sales recognition from Green Paradise, Ocean Park 2&3, Royal Island, Wonder City, and other projects; and (ii) VND 22tn of financial support from the Chairman. Excluding the Chairman’s support, FY26 NPAT is estimated at VND 13.9tn, compared with a loss of VND 7.3tn in FY25.

In our view, Vingroup’s earnings profile remains fundamentally anchored by its real estate business, supported by continued project launches and ongoing sales activity. Earnings visibility continues to depend largely on property sales performance — particularly bulk sales transactions — as well as potential asset divestments, one-off financial income, and recurring financial support from the Chairman.

We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on VIC. Beyond expectations surrounding Vietnam’s potential market upgrade, VIC has also emerged as a key beneficiary of the market’s renewed preference for large private-sector conglomerates (conglomerate premium in short), supported by increasingly favorable policy rhetoric toward the domestic private sector. The stock’s market capitalization has risen to approximately 28% of total HSX market capitalization, creating a significant technical rebalancing requirement across both institutional and retail portfolios. As many investors remain materially underweight relative to VIC’s benchmark representation, the need to increase allocations (from zero-weight) could continue to provide meaningful technical support and sustain incremental demand for the shares in the near term.

Beneficiary of knock-on effects from Middle East disruptions. Supply-side shocks—particularly in fertilizers and logistics—are expected to tighten global agricultural markets and support pricing. PAN is well positioned to capture this upside, given its integrated exposure across the agri-food value chain.

Compelling valuation within the EM agri-food universe. PAN is trading at undemanding multiples relative to its growth outlook and return on equity potential. The market continues to price the company as a cyclical name, underappreciating its transition toward a structurally improving, integrated agri-food platform.

Upside from asset monetization and capital redeployment. The Bibica divestment, alongside potential monetization of real estate and land bank assets, offers scope for value unlocking. These initiatives should also enhance capital allocation efficiency and support a potential re-rating.

A lack of new capital raising initiatives is likely to serve as a tailwind for profit growth: CTG remains the only listed SOCB without a private placement plan. We expect its strong earnings momentum to generate sufficient capital to sustain CAR levels, supporting healthy credit expansion in the years ahead. Given the ongoing constraints around credit allocation to higher risk-weighted asset classes, we expect CTG to gradually optimize their asset mix toward segments with more favorable risk weights. Accordingly, we assume risk-weighted assets to grow at around ~15% annually (or potentially lower). Meanwhile, Tier-1 capital should expand at a faster pace of ~20% on average, supported by strong earnings generation. As a result, CAR is projected to improve by roughly 40bps per year.

Resilient fundamentals: Pretax profit is projected to reach VND 52.4 tn (+20.6% YoY), stemming from stable NIM as well as credit costs amid solid credit growth of 15%. Besides, writeback income is expected to be strong in 2026.

Appealing valuation: For 2026, the stock trades at 1.30x P/B with ROE above 20%, presenting an attractive valuation relative to BID (1.55x) and VCB (1.96x), which deliver ROE of 18.6% and 16.6% respectively.

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price for MSN to VND 107,000 per share (implying 36% upside; previously VND 98,700), reflecting an upward revision to our 2026F net income forecast to VND 9.58 trillion (+42% YoY). Accordingly, we upgrade the stock to a BUY (from OUTPERFORM) recommendation. At 17.9x 2026E P/E, MSN now trades at a materially more attractive valuation relative to the ~75x multiple observed post the WinCommerce acquisition.

Investment Thesis

•           WinCommerce (WCM): Positioned to benefit from the transition from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses, accelerating the shift toward modern trade.

•           Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR): Rising tungsten prices are expected to support non-core earnings growth in 2026.

•           Market upgrade catalyst: MSN stands to benefit from Vietnam’s potential reclassification to Emerging Market status by FTSE, which could drive incremental capital inflows.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on VNM due to limited upside (8% including dividend) given single-digit earnings growth prospects for the 2026-2027 period, as marketing expenses could potentially offset gains from low input costs in the near-term. We raise our 12-month TP to VND 72,000/share (from VND 65,000/share).

Investment Thesis

•           Better product mix and distribution: Premium/super-premium segments now represent ~10% of sales with continued growth trajectory. Domestic recovery, strong export momentum and accelerated modern trade expansion underpin more market share gains.

•           Low input costs period ahead: Imported milk ingredient costs are expected to be favorable during 2026, helping VNM free up capital for future marketing budgets.

•           Valuation not too attractive relative to growth profile: Our 2026F revenue and NPAT arrive at VND 65.5tn (+3% YoY) and VND 10tn (+6.3% YoY), respectively, which is 4% above consensus. At VND 70,600/share, the stock trades at ~17x 2026F P/E; our TP of VND 72,000 is supported by a combination of DCF and 16x PER. Dividend yield is stable at 6%.

Earnings uplift supported by internal capital generation: CTG remains the only listed SOCB without a private placement plan. Strong earnings growth should provide sufficient capital buffer to sustain CAR while supporting robust credit expansion.

Credit cost relief from improving asset quality: Gradual improvements in asset quality allow CTG to reduce provisions in the coming years. We expect pretax profit to reach VND 40 trillion (+26% YoY) in 2025 and VND 49.4 trillion (+23.5% YoY) in 2026.

Attractive relative valuation: For 2026, CTG trades at 1.32x P/B with ROE above 20%, offering compelling value compared with BID (1.38x P/B) and VCB (1.86x P/B), which generate ROE of 15.5%–16.5%.

Restructuring Completion as a catalyst: We expect STB will receive final regulatory approval in 2H26, marking the formal completion of its restructuring phase and serving as a key strategic catalyst, including engagement with strategic investors, resumption of dividend distributions, and initiation of charter capital increases.

Management’s strong commitment to addressing non-performing loans is expected to extend into 2026, exerting pressure on provisioning expenses and moderating the bank’s earnings growth trajectory.

Earnings outlook remains modest: Pretax profit is expected to reach VND 14 tn (+9% YoY), supported by stronger credit growth (+14% YTD), but weighed down by NIM compression (-7bps YoY) and a sharp increase in provisions (+47.6% YoY). ROE is projected to decline to approximately 17%, while CAR is anticipated to fluctuate in the range of 9% to 9.5%.

High-growth franchise with multi-engine expansion. VPB delivered 29% credit growth YTD by the end of 3Q25, driven by aggressive lending to real estate and brokerage. We project credit growth to remain elevated in 2026 with strong momentum across the parent bank and subsidiaries.

Earnings upgrade backed by diversified income and improving asset quality. We revise 2025 PBT to VND 29.7 tn (+49% YoY) and 2026 PBT to VND 36.3 tn (+22% YoY), driven by lower credit cost (3% vs. 3.4% in 2025) and sustained fee income.

Strategic capital flexibility. As CAR declined to 13.6% (from 17% in 2023) amid rapid balance sheet expansion, we anticipate VPB will pursue capital raising options in 2026, potentially via follow-on issuance to strategic partners — a potential re-rating catalyst.

We downgrade VEA to Market Perform and reduce our 12 month target price to VND34,000/share (from VND43,300/share, adjusted for dividend). The revision reflects mounting regulatory headwinds and accelerating electrification, which are expected to weigh on Honda’s motorcycle volumes and margins despite resilient 2025 earnings. Our target price implies a P/E of 7.3x, one standard deviation below the five year average, underscoring reduced earnings visibility for 2026–27.

Investment Thesis

•           Solid near term earnings base: 9M25 NPAT rose 6% YoY, reaching 82% of our 2025 forecast. However, structural challenges—most notably the gasoline motorbike ban—warrant a more cautious medium term outlook.

•           Volume pressure: Honda’s guidance for a 200k unit cut, coupled with rapid expansion of e scooter brands (VinFast, Yadea), poses downside risk to VEAM’s historically stable associate income stream.

•           Dividend yield vs. earnings decline: While dividend yields could remain attractive (c.15% in 2026–27 if payouts are sustained), earnings are projected to contract by 14% in 2026, limiting upside potential.

PNJ is well-positioned to capitalize on Vietnam’s evolving gold market, supported by regulatory tailwinds. Retail sales growth remains tepid at 4.3% YoY in 3Q25, reflecting soft consumer demand amid elevated gold prices and limited supply. Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to rise through 2026, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. While this may dampen the overall jewelry demand, PNJ could gain market share by securing sufficient gold inventory.

The newly enacted Decree 232/2025/ND-CP allows private firms to produce gold bars and import gold materials, easing supply constraints. PNJ has met key eligibility criteria and is preparing its gold import quota application, due November 15^th. Approval (expected by December 15^th) would enable the company to leverage the new framework and support stronger sales.

Supported by improved retail and gold bar sales driven by expected gold import quota allocation, we forecast net income of PNJ to reach VND 2.68 tn in 2026 (+10% YoY), outperforming the 2% YoY growth forecast for 2025 (excluding one-off items in 2024). By rolling-forward our valuation from 2025F to 2026F, we increase 1Y target price to VND 109,000 per share (from VND 97,500). With a potential upside of 22%, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for PNJ. The company has returned to a positive earnings trajectory from 3Q25, and its 2026 P/E of 12.3x remains attractive compared to the historical average of 18x.

IMP delivered a resilient 3Q25 with revenue up to VND 574bn (+5% YoY), driven by a 16% surge in hospital (ETC) sales, which offset weaker OTC demand (following early restocking and tax headwinds for small pharmacies). Gross margin improved to 39.6% as higher-value prescription drugs and lower API prices lifted profitability, while net income rose to VND 77bn (+6% YoY) despite higher SG&A and financing costs. Strategically, IMP is expanding its footprint and introducing 20 new SKUs, including a first generic product, supported by another IMP4 line coming online in 4Q25. We believe the market underestimates the sustainability of ETC-led growth and upcoming capacity leverage, providing medium-term upside. With 68% of revenue and 63% of profit targets achieved for 2025, IMP still needs a strong 4Q finish. We expect 2025 & 2026 NPAT to reach 379bn (+18% YoY) and 456bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The stock is trading at P/E ratio of 16.5x 2026F, lower compared to its 5-year historical average of 18x and average regional peers of 20x. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 55,000/share target price (12% upside).

HAH is well-positioned to capitalize on elevated feeder charter rates and a structural shortage of vessels. We forecast 2025E net revenue of VND 5,151bn (+29.0% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,154bn (+46.2% YoY), underpinned by sustained charter strength and expanded fleet capacity. For 2026, we project revenue of VND 5,440bn (+5.6% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,347bn (+16.7% YoY), with margins moderating as feeder rates normalize but remain above historical averages.

Based on our adjusted DCF model, we initiate with an OUTPERFORM rating and a one-year target price of VND 63,800/share, implying 17.1% upside.