Company Report

Elevated rubber prices to support 2026 earnings. Rubber prices increased 34% YoY and 27% YTD as of Aug-26, driven by weather-related supply disruptions in Thailand. We forecast average rubber prices to rise 12% YoY to VND 55mn/ton. Accordingly, rubber revenue is projected at VND 1.83tn (+12% YoY), while gross margin expands 3.3ppt YoY to 29.7%.

Peak land compensation recognition from rubber-to-industrial park conversion. PHR is expected to recognize VND 1.44tn of compensation income from the Thaco Mechanical Specialized IP and VND 2.10tn from the remaining VSIP 3 area during 2026-2027. We estimate around VND 1.5tn of land compensation income will be recognized in 2026, providing a key earnings driver.

Financial health remains solid. In 2Q26, PHR reported net cash of VND 2.52 trillion, equivalent to 31.1% of market capitalization. We believe the company’s strong cash position could support higher financial income as deposit rates trend upward.

NIM recovery is gaining traction. NIM increased by c.20bps QoQ to 2.1% in 2Q26 as loan yields repriced higher, while the loan-tenor mix remained broadly unchanged. With only around one-third of BID’s mortgage book currently repriced to floating rates, we expect the margin recovery to continue into 2027. We forecast PBT growth of 9.4% in 2026F and 11.8% in 2027F, with ROE at around 15%.

Strong funding franchise and infrastructure exposure. BID has the largest deposit base in the banking system, supported by a sizeable State Treasury deposit base and improving CASA. The bank also remains a key financier of public investment and infrastructure projects. The capital raise completed in early 2026 should support CAR at around 10%, providing a more stable foundation for medium-term balance-sheet growth.

Valuation has become more reasonable. BID’s share price has corrected by around 30% from its early-2026 peak, bringing valuation down to 1.4x FY26F P/B and 1.2x FY27F P/B, based on our estimated ROE of around 15%. We believe this provides a more balanced risk/reward profile, although the stock is not yet deeply discounted.

Multiple drivers supporting market share gains. VNM’s broader and increasingly premium product portfolio, improving channel mix toward modern trade and D2C, and rapidly expanding export business should support further market share gains. We forecast FY26F NPAT of VND10.5tn (+12% YoY), significantly above management’s 3–4% target.

Growth momentum likely to moderate in 2H26. Gross margin has recovered to 43.5%, from the 38.8% trough in 2022–23, supported by favorable pricing of locked-in imported WMP/SMP and sugar, as well as a better product mix. However, with input costs rising, management expects 2H26 gross margin to remain broadly flat versus 1H26 and does not plan further selling-price increases. This should limit further earnings upside in 2H.

Valuation remains undemanding. We value VNM at a 15x target P/E applied to our FY26F EPS of VND4,469, implying a Target Price of VND67,000. This represents a modest premium to the current trailing P/E of ~13x. The market continues to price VNM as a low- to no-growth stock, with its current FY26F P/E of ~14x still below its five-year historical average of ~18x.

Earnings diversification provides a buffer against margin pressure. TCB’s integrated ecosystem offers significant scope to diversify fee income and reduce reliance on NII. In particular, with Masterise and Vingroup participating in major national infrastructure and urban-development projects, we expect TCX to benefit from increased bond issuance and distribution mandates, alongside L/C and settlement services.

Earnings growth remains resilient despite emerging headwinds. We forecast PBT of VND37.8tn (+16% YoY) in 2026 and VND43.4tn (+15% YoY) in 2027. We expect TCB’s diversified revenue base to partly offset NIM compression and higher credit costs as the real-estate market faces pressure from elevated interest rates.

Valuation provides room for re-rating. At 1.13x 2026F P/B, TCB trades at a meaningful discount to its historical average of 1.31x, although above the 2022 trough of 0.67x. This valuation appears undemanding relative to our expected ~15.5% ROE and TCB’s strong capital position. In our view, the discount primarily reflects near-term concerns around asset quality and NIM rather than structural deterioration in the bank’s earnings power or franchise. As fee-income diversification and ecosystem-driven growth increasingly offset margin pressure, we see scope for multiple re-rating.

Robust backlog supports volume growth. Large public and commercial housing projects from Vinhomes, Masterise and Hoang Huy Group should support resilient demand for construction materials. With construction activity continuing to expand, we expect NTP to maintain positive volume growth, supporting our forecast of more than 136,000 tonnes of sales in 2026 (+2% YoY).

Pricing power supports margins amid PVC volatility. As the leading pipe manufacturer in northern Vietnam, NTP has demonstrated the ability to adjust ASP when PVC resin prices increase. This provides a degree of natural margin protection and should allow gross and net profit margins to remain around their historical averages of 31% and 14%, respectively, under a normalized input-cost environment.

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. NTP maintains a conservative capital structure with no long-term debt, supported by a sizeable cash and short-term investment position. With interest rates remaining relatively high, financial income from these liquid assets should provide an additional contribution to earnings.

Potential catalyst from State-capital restructuring. Decision 40/2026/QĐ-TTg, which establishes criteria for classifying enterprises for State-capital restructuring, could facilitate the divestment process involving SCIC’s stake in NTP. This could improve the company’s ownership structure and provide an additional valuation catalyst.

Overseas market will remain the key growth driver, along with long-term investments in strategic technologies.

Public sector digitalization adds medium-term optionality. FPT has collaborated with the Government in digital initiatives, providing structural growth for domestic IT services. FPT AI Factory also started generating profit in 2Q26.

AI transformation as a growth driver over the medium term, amid a rapidly evolving AI landscape.

Elevated rubber prices should continue to support earnings in 2026. Natural rubber prices remained favorable, increasing 26.4% YoY and 21% YTD as of May 2026, driven by weather-related supply disruptions, particularly heavy rainfall in Thailand. We forecast rubber revenue of VND26.7tn (+12% YoY) despite an estimated 4% decline in sales volume to 513,870 tons, as higher selling prices more than offset lower volumes. Gross margin is projected to improve to 28%, up 2 percentage points YoY.

Land conversion remains the key structural growth catalyst. GVR continues to advance legal and investment approvals for 23,444ha of industrial park development by 2030, with a strategic focus on southern Vietnam. For 2026, we forecast VND3.2tn of land-transfer revenue (+875% YoY) and VND2.63tn of pre-tax profit, assuming approximately 1,500ha of converted land in Dong Nai and Binh Duong (old province boundaries).

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. As of end-2Q26, GVR held net cash of VND26.2tn, equivalent to 23.6% of its current market capitalization. We expect the company’s substantial cash holdings to generate higher financial income as deposit rates continue to trend upward.

Strong earnings momentum in 5M26. According to management accounts, parent company revenue reached VND 398.9 billion, up 82.9% YoY, while pre-tax profit increased 69.7% YoY to VND 167 billion. The robust performance was primarily driven by a 146% YoY increase in rubber sales volume to 4,072 tonnes, supplemented by income from rubber plantation liquidation.

Land conversion to become the key earnings driver. DPR is well positioned to capitalize on the conversion of rubber plantations into industrial parks, supported by increasing industrial land scarcity. We estimate that approximately 3,500 hectares of rubber land—equivalent to around 40% of the company’s current cultivated area—will be converted for industrial parks and other developments during 2026–2030 under the land-use master plan for the former Binh Phuoc province. Based on our estimates, these conversions could unlock more than VND 3 trillion in compensation and monetization value, with earnings recognition expected to accelerate over 2026–2027.

Exceptionally strong balance sheet. DPR remains debt-free, with no short- or long-term borrowings. Its net cash position represents 67.1% of its current market capitalization, providing substantial financial flexibility while supporting an attractive dividend profile.

Rubber prices remain supportive, providing a solid earnings base in 2026. Natural rubber prices increased 32% YoY and 28% YTD as of May 2026, supported by weather-related supply disruptions in major producing countries, particularly Thailand, alongside firmer oil prices amid continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We forecast average rubber selling prices to increase 12% YoY to VND 55 million/ton in 2026. Consequently, rubber revenue is projected to reach VND 1.83 trillion (+12% YoY), while sales volume is expected to remain broadly stable at 28,200 tons (-1% YoY). Gross margin is forecast to expand to 29.7%, up 3.3 percentage points YoY.

2026 marks the peak earnings recognition period for industrial land conversion compensation. According to company disclosures, PHR expects to recognize compensation income related to rubber plantation conversion for major industrial park developments during 2026–2027, including VND 1,440 billion from the Thaco Mechanical & Supporting Industry Complex and VND 2,104 billion from the remaining compensation associated with the VSIP 3 project. We estimate that approximately VND 1.5 trillion of compensation income will be recognized in 2026 alone, driving profit before tax to VND 2,072 billion, equivalent to a 243% YoY increase. This represents the strongest earnings contribution from land conversion activities in the company’s recent history.

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. As of 1Q26, PHR held net cash of VND 2.37 trillion, equivalent to 25.3% of its current market capitalization. The company’s robust cash position not only strengthens financial flexibility but also supports higher financial income amid a rising interest rate environment.

GVR is currently trading at a forward P/E of 17x, below its 3-year historical average of 21.7x. We maintain a constructive stance on GVR, underpinned by its unrivaled rubber land bank of 377,797 hectares across key provinces including Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, and Tay Ninh. The planned conversion of over 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations into industrial park land represents a transformative growth driver, offering substantial long-term upside. Applying a SOTP valuation framework, we derive a 12-month target price of VND 36,200/share (1% down side) and reiterate our Market Perform rating.

Rubber prices remain elevated, underpinning 2026 earnings. In May 2026, prices rose 32% YoY and 28% YTD on weather-driven supply constraints, with Thailand facing heavy rainfall risks. Higher oil prices also lent support amid ongoing Middle East tensions. We project average rubber prices to rise 15% YoY to VND 58 million/ton. Rubber revenue is estimated at VND 26.7 trillion (+12% YoY), with consumption volume expected to reach 513,870 tons (-4% YoY) in 2026. Gross margin expected to reach 28%, up 2ppt YoY.

We expect income from the conversion of rubber plantation land into industrial park land. GVR is progressing legal and investment approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, with a strategic focus on southern provinces. In 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion in pre-tax profit, assuming 1,500 ha of converted land in Dong Nai and Binh Duong (old).

Financial health remains solid. In 1Q26, GVR reported net cash of VND 25.8 trillion, equivalent to 17.3% of market capitalization. We believe the company’s strong cash position will support higher financial income as deposit rates trend upward.

We expect Vingroup to deliver strong earnings growth in FY26, supported primarily by robust property sales momentum at Vinhomes. Vinhomes’s FY26 presales value is forecasted to increase 28% YoY to VND 262.2tn, driven by ongoing projects and three new launches. Bulk sales transactions are expected to remain the primary contributor to total presales value.

VinFast is expected to maintain strong volume growth, with automobile sales projected at 270k units in 2026 (+37% YoY) and e-scooter sales reaching 750k units (+85% YoY). VinFast’s global EV expansion is likely to remain loss-making in the near term, acting as a key earnings headwind; however, if the proposed restructuring plan is approved, it could help improve VinFast’s earnings contribution through a more asset-light structure and reduced cost burden.

We forecast FY26 revenue of VND 455.9tn (+37% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 30.8tn (+171% YoY). FY26 earnings are expected to be driven mainly by (i) property sales recognition from Green Paradise, Ocean Park 2&3, Royal Island, Wonder City, and other projects; and (ii) VND 22tn of financial support from the Chairman. Excluding the Chairman’s support, FY26 NPAT is estimated at VND 13.9tn, compared with a loss of VND 7.3tn in FY25.

In our view, Vingroup’s earnings profile remains fundamentally anchored by its real estate business, supported by continued project launches and ongoing sales activity. Earnings visibility continues to depend largely on property sales performance — particularly bulk sales transactions — as well as potential asset divestments, one-off financial income, and recurring financial support from the Chairman.

We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on VIC. Beyond expectations surrounding Vietnam’s potential market upgrade, VIC has also emerged as a key beneficiary of the market’s renewed preference for large private-sector conglomerates (conglomerate premium in short), supported by increasingly favorable policy rhetoric toward the domestic private sector. The stock’s market capitalization has risen to approximately 28% of total HSX market capitalization, creating a significant technical rebalancing requirement across both institutional and retail portfolios. As many investors remain materially underweight relative to VIC’s benchmark representation, the need to increase allocations (from zero-weight) could continue to provide meaningful technical support and sustain incremental demand for the shares in the near term.

Beneficiary of knock-on effects from Middle East disruptions. Supply-side shocks—particularly in fertilizers and logistics—are expected to tighten global agricultural markets and support pricing. PAN is well positioned to capture this upside, given its integrated exposure across the agri-food value chain.

Compelling valuation within the EM agri-food universe. PAN is trading at undemanding multiples relative to its growth outlook and return on equity potential. The market continues to price the company as a cyclical name, underappreciating its transition toward a structurally improving, integrated agri-food platform.

Upside from asset monetization and capital redeployment. The Bibica divestment, alongside potential monetization of real estate and land bank assets, offers scope for value unlocking. These initiatives should also enhance capital allocation efficiency and support a potential re-rating.

A lack of new capital raising initiatives is likely to serve as a tailwind for profit growth: CTG remains the only listed SOCB without a private placement plan. We expect its strong earnings momentum to generate sufficient capital to sustain CAR levels, supporting healthy credit expansion in the years ahead. Given the ongoing constraints around credit allocation to higher risk-weighted asset classes, we expect CTG to gradually optimize their asset mix toward segments with more favorable risk weights. Accordingly, we assume risk-weighted assets to grow at around ~15% annually (or potentially lower). Meanwhile, Tier-1 capital should expand at a faster pace of ~20% on average, supported by strong earnings generation. As a result, CAR is projected to improve by roughly 40bps per year.

Resilient fundamentals: Pretax profit is projected to reach VND 52.4 tn (+20.6% YoY), stemming from stable NIM as well as credit costs amid solid credit growth of 15%. Besides, writeback income is expected to be strong in 2026.

Appealing valuation: For 2026, the stock trades at 1.30x P/B with ROE above 20%, presenting an attractive valuation relative to BID (1.55x) and VCB (1.96x), which deliver ROE of 18.6% and 16.6% respectively.

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price for MSN to VND 107,000 per share (implying 36% upside; previously VND 98,700), reflecting an upward revision to our 2026F net income forecast to VND 9.58 trillion (+42% YoY). Accordingly, we upgrade the stock to a BUY (from OUTPERFORM) recommendation. At 17.9x 2026E P/E, MSN now trades at a materially more attractive valuation relative to the ~75x multiple observed post the WinCommerce acquisition.

Investment Thesis

•           WinCommerce (WCM): Positioned to benefit from the transition from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses, accelerating the shift toward modern trade.

•           Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR): Rising tungsten prices are expected to support non-core earnings growth in 2026.

•           Market upgrade catalyst: MSN stands to benefit from Vietnam’s potential reclassification to Emerging Market status by FTSE, which could drive incremental capital inflows.