Company Report

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on VNM due to limited upside (8% including dividend) given single-digit earnings growth prospects for the 2026-2027 period, as marketing expenses could potentially offset gains from low input costs in the near-term. We raise our 12-month TP to VND 72,000/share (from VND 65,000/share).

Investment Thesis

•           Better product mix and distribution: Premium/super-premium segments now represent ~10% of sales with continued growth trajectory. Domestic recovery, strong export momentum and accelerated modern trade expansion underpin more market share gains.

•           Low input costs period ahead: Imported milk ingredient costs are expected to be favorable during 2026, helping VNM free up capital for future marketing budgets.

•           Valuation not too attractive relative to growth profile: Our 2026F revenue and NPAT arrive at VND 65.5tn (+3% YoY) and VND 10tn (+6.3% YoY), respectively, which is 4% above consensus. At VND 70,600/share, the stock trades at ~17x 2026F P/E; our TP of VND 72,000 is supported by a combination of DCF and 16x PER. Dividend yield is stable at 6%.

Earnings uplift supported by internal capital generation: CTG remains the only listed SOCB without a private placement plan. Strong earnings growth should provide sufficient capital buffer to sustain CAR while supporting robust credit expansion.

Credit cost relief from improving asset quality: Gradual improvements in asset quality allow CTG to reduce provisions in the coming years. We expect pretax profit to reach VND 40 trillion (+26% YoY) in 2025 and VND 49.4 trillion (+23.5% YoY) in 2026.

Attractive relative valuation: For 2026, CTG trades at 1.32x P/B with ROE above 20%, offering compelling value compared with BID (1.38x P/B) and VCB (1.86x P/B), which generate ROE of 15.5%–16.5%.

Restructuring Completion as a catalyst: We expect STB will receive final regulatory approval in 2H26, marking the formal completion of its restructuring phase and serving as a key strategic catalyst, including engagement with strategic investors, resumption of dividend distributions, and initiation of charter capital increases.

Management’s strong commitment to addressing non-performing loans is expected to extend into 2026, exerting pressure on provisioning expenses and moderating the bank’s earnings growth trajectory.

Earnings outlook remains modest: Pretax profit is expected to reach VND 14 tn (+9% YoY), supported by stronger credit growth (+14% YTD), but weighed down by NIM compression (-7bps YoY) and a sharp increase in provisions (+47.6% YoY). ROE is projected to decline to approximately 17%, while CAR is anticipated to fluctuate in the range of 9% to 9.5%.

High-growth franchise with multi-engine expansion. VPB delivered 29% credit growth YTD by the end of 3Q25, driven by aggressive lending to real estate and brokerage. We project credit growth to remain elevated in 2026 with strong momentum across the parent bank and subsidiaries.

Earnings upgrade backed by diversified income and improving asset quality. We revise 2025 PBT to VND 29.7 tn (+49% YoY) and 2026 PBT to VND 36.3 tn (+22% YoY), driven by lower credit cost (3% vs. 3.4% in 2025) and sustained fee income.

Strategic capital flexibility. As CAR declined to 13.6% (from 17% in 2023) amid rapid balance sheet expansion, we anticipate VPB will pursue capital raising options in 2026, potentially via follow-on issuance to strategic partners — a potential re-rating catalyst.

We downgrade VEA to Market Perform and reduce our 12 month target price to VND34,000/share (from VND43,300/share, adjusted for dividend). The revision reflects mounting regulatory headwinds and accelerating electrification, which are expected to weigh on Honda’s motorcycle volumes and margins despite resilient 2025 earnings. Our target price implies a P/E of 7.3x, one standard deviation below the five year average, underscoring reduced earnings visibility for 2026–27.

Investment Thesis

•           Solid near term earnings base: 9M25 NPAT rose 6% YoY, reaching 82% of our 2025 forecast. However, structural challenges—most notably the gasoline motorbike ban—warrant a more cautious medium term outlook.

•           Volume pressure: Honda’s guidance for a 200k unit cut, coupled with rapid expansion of e scooter brands (VinFast, Yadea), poses downside risk to VEAM’s historically stable associate income stream.

•           Dividend yield vs. earnings decline: While dividend yields could remain attractive (c.15% in 2026–27 if payouts are sustained), earnings are projected to contract by 14% in 2026, limiting upside potential.

PNJ is well-positioned to capitalize on Vietnam’s evolving gold market, supported by regulatory tailwinds. Retail sales growth remains tepid at 4.3% YoY in 3Q25, reflecting soft consumer demand amid elevated gold prices and limited supply. Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to rise through 2026, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. While this may dampen the overall jewelry demand, PNJ could gain market share by securing sufficient gold inventory.

The newly enacted Decree 232/2025/ND-CP allows private firms to produce gold bars and import gold materials, easing supply constraints. PNJ has met key eligibility criteria and is preparing its gold import quota application, due November 15^th. Approval (expected by December 15^th) would enable the company to leverage the new framework and support stronger sales.

Supported by improved retail and gold bar sales driven by expected gold import quota allocation, we forecast net income of PNJ to reach VND 2.68 tn in 2026 (+10% YoY), outperforming the 2% YoY growth forecast for 2025 (excluding one-off items in 2024). By rolling-forward our valuation from 2025F to 2026F, we increase 1Y target price to VND 109,000 per share (from VND 97,500). With a potential upside of 22%, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for PNJ. The company has returned to a positive earnings trajectory from 3Q25, and its 2026 P/E of 12.3x remains attractive compared to the historical average of 18x.

IMP delivered a resilient 3Q25 with revenue up to VND 574bn (+5% YoY), driven by a 16% surge in hospital (ETC) sales, which offset weaker OTC demand (following early restocking and tax headwinds for small pharmacies). Gross margin improved to 39.6% as higher-value prescription drugs and lower API prices lifted profitability, while net income rose to VND 77bn (+6% YoY) despite higher SG&A and financing costs. Strategically, IMP is expanding its footprint and introducing 20 new SKUs, including a first generic product, supported by another IMP4 line coming online in 4Q25. We believe the market underestimates the sustainability of ETC-led growth and upcoming capacity leverage, providing medium-term upside. With 68% of revenue and 63% of profit targets achieved for 2025, IMP still needs a strong 4Q finish. We expect 2025 & 2026 NPAT to reach 379bn (+18% YoY) and 456bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The stock is trading at P/E ratio of 16.5x 2026F, lower compared to its 5-year historical average of 18x and average regional peers of 20x. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 55,000/share target price (12% upside).

HAH is well-positioned to capitalize on elevated feeder charter rates and a structural shortage of vessels. We forecast 2025E net revenue of VND 5,151bn (+29.0% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,154bn (+46.2% YoY), underpinned by sustained charter strength and expanded fleet capacity. For 2026, we project revenue of VND 5,440bn (+5.6% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,347bn (+16.7% YoY), with margins moderating as feeder rates normalize but remain above historical averages.

Based on our adjusted DCF model, we initiate with an OUTPERFORM rating and a one-year target price of VND 63,800/share, implying 17.1% upside.

Upcoming Listing & Valuation

F88 is set to list 8.26 million shares on UPCoM on August 8, 2025, with a reference price of VND 634,900 per share. This pricing implies a market capitalization of approximately VND 5.2 trillion (USD 200 million), corresponding to a 2Q25 price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.7x and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.3x. The company’s profitability remains compelling, with a return on assets (ROA) of 9.6% and return on equity (ROE) of 27.5%.

Business Model & Growth Trajectory

Founded in 2013, F88 operates a scalable, collateral-backed lending model focused on financially underserved customer segments. The company leverages both physical distribution—via a nationwide network of 888 stores—and digital engagement through its proprietary platforms. F88 has delivered exceptional growth, with both loan book and revenue registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 77–79% between 2019 and 2025. Its core offerings include:

* Direct secured lending, primarily against motorbikes and automobiles; and

* Loan origination and servicing for CIMB Bank, underpinned by a buyback clause on non-performing loans.

Financial Performance & Outlook

In the first half of 2025, F88’s pre-tax profit surged 213% year-on-year to VND 321 billion, reaching 48% of its full-year target. For the full year, the company projects:

* 43% growth in loan portfolio

* 50% growth in pre-tax profit

Growth will be driven by network expansion, increased adoption of the MyF88 mobile application, and broader cross-selling of insurance and financial products across its customer base.

Strong 2Q25 Performance Driven by Real Estate and JV Contributions. BCM delivered robust 2Q25 results with revenue and NPATMI reaching VND 2.5 tn (+116% YoY) and VND 1.4 tn (+272% YoY), fueled by land leasing and transfers in Binh Duong, strong margins from industrial parks, and rising JV profits, particularly from VSIP. The company’s execution led to 1H25 net profit fulfilling 73% of its annual plan.

Accelerated Land Transfers in Binh Duong New City in 2025-2026. BCM is poised to unlock value from its residential portfolio by transferring 20 hectares to sub-developers, supported by rapid construction progress and infrastructure upgrades following the region’s administrative merger into Ho Chi Minh City.

Industrial Park Expansion and JV Contributions The launch of the expanded Bau Bang Industrial Park by year-end is expected to deliver VND 1.55 trillion in revenue, with healthy margins. Additionally, VSIP and BWID joint ventures are projected to contribute VND 2.1 trillion in profit (+7% YoY).

Investment view. BCM maintains its position as a leading industrial park developer in Vietnam, underpinned by a large, fully owned landbank and strong joint venture momentum—especially VSIP, which is projected to see double-digit growth through 2026. We reaffirm our OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of VND 89,900, offering a 29% upside, while keeping a close eye on cash flow pressure from JV capital demands.

IMP reported robust revenue and NPAT growth of +22% and 37% YoY, respectively, driven by strong performance in both ETC (+24% YoY) and OTC (+32% YoY) segments. Hospital restocking supported ETC, while retail recovery boosted OTC. Faciility utilization is estimated at 63% compared to 55% at beginning of the year. Gross margin rose 60bps QoQ to 40.1% thanks to stable API prices and better cost control. 1H25 revenue and pretax profit achieved 46% and 43% of FY targets, respectively, keeping the company on track.

IMP’s outlook remains steady, with growth supported by an expanding SKU portfolio, a strong push in OTC, and rising market share in Tier 1&2 hospital tenders. Upcoming regulations (e.g., mandatory e-prescriptions, stricter drug quality controls) will benefit high-quality players like IMP.

As a result, we maintain our forecasts with 2025F net sales of VND 2.54 tn (+15% YoY) but increase our NPAT forecast to VND 401 bn (+25% YoY; from VND 373bn). We also introduce our 2026 forecast for revenue and NPAT of VND 2.89 tn (+13% YoY) and VND 486 bn (+21% YoY), respectively.

Our updated target price is VND 58,000/share (from 45,000/share), valuing IMP at a 2026F PE of 18.3x, derived from a blended DCF and relative P/E approach. With the stock currently trading at VND 50,500/share, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares with potential upside of 15%.

In 2025, both electricity output and net profit after tax (NPAT) are projected to recover gradually, with YoY growth of approximately 9% and 5%, respectively. This improvement is expected to be supported by contributions from all power plants across the portfolio. Additionally, PGV is anticipated to continue optimizing the thermal power segment by reducing heating rates, thereby enhancing long-term operational efficiency.

It is important to note that the NPAT target does not account for potential FX compensation income exceeding VND 5 trillion, related to the remaining amount from 2019 and the period from 2020 to 2024. This amount represents roughly 35% of the company’s consolidated book equity or approximately 25% of its current market capitalization. In the short term, recognition of this income may be delayed due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding EVN’s financial position.

Furthermore, the company reported that electricity output for the first five months of 2025 reached 10.8 billion kWh, marking a modest 0.5% YoY increase. Preliminary profit before tax (PBT) for the same period was VND 470 billion, achieving over 75% of the corresponding full-year guidance.

DPM’s 1Q25 was marked by a challenging operating environment, with PBT declining 22% YoY. This was largely driven by an unfavorable exchange rate and uneven quarterly SG&A allocation. However, we believe this softness is temporary and that the company is on the cusp of a meaningful earnings recovery.

Looking ahead, we expect a reversion to earnings growth beginning in 2Q25, supported by two key catalysts: a correction in global oil prices and the implementation of a new VAT regulation effective July 2025. The latter allows DPM to reclaim VAT on gas input costs—a structural shift that could significantly enhance profitability.

DPM’s robust balance sheet, with net cash accounting for 55% of its current market capitalization, provides a strong buffer against downside risks. This financial strength, combined with improving fundamentals, underpins our constructive view.

We forecast 2025E PBT at VND1.2tn (+83% YoY). Our new equally-weighted PE/PB/ EV/EBITDA-based 12-month TP is VND38,300 per share, implying a ROI of 21%, including a 6.4% dividend yield. We call for OUTPERFORM rating on DPM shares.

We remain sanguine on VPB’s outlook and maintain our 2025 estimates. The bank has managed its funding cost well while maintaining robust credit growth, underpinned by a well-capitalized balance sheet and a strategic partnership with SMBC.

However, while the parent bank's performance would be solid, we maintain a cautious view on FeCredit, where asset quality risks likely will persist should trade tensions escalate. Our 2025 consolidated PBT forecast stands at VND 23.8 tn (+19% YoY), slightly below management’s target, reflecting a conservative view on the consumer finance business.

With an additional 15% upside potential, we recommend Outperform on VPB, with the 2025 target price of VND 21,000/share.