Company Report

We reaffirm our BUY rating on FPT, with a revised 12-month TP of VND101,600/share (from VND110,400). The adjustment reflects lower target P/Es for the education segment at 16x (from 18x) and technology segment at 17x (from 18x) to better align with peers, while maintaining 14x for telecom. FPT is currently trading at 13x 2026E P/E, a meaningful discount to global peers at 17x, despite delivering higher EPS growth (15% vs. 11%), which we believe is not fully priced in.

Overseas market will be the key growth driver (especially in Japan), with long-term investments in strategic technologies. In 2025, signed contract value/signed revenue grew by 23% YoY (vs. 13% YoY in 2024).

Public sector digitalization adds medium-term optionality. FPT will collaborate with the Government in digital initiatives, providing a structural growth for domestic IT services.

AI transition: near-term neutral to positive. While investor concerns around AI disruption are valid, enterprise adoption remains gradual and requires system integration, customization, and data handling — areas where FPT is structurally positioned. At this stage, AI is more likely to support demand and enhance productivity than displace IT services.

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG, with revised target price of VND 18,500/share ~ 10% upside based on a combined P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.

At the current market price, HSG is trading at FY 2026 P/E forward of 13x and P/B forward of 0.88x, which is lower than its normalized 5Y average P/E of 16x.

However, with challenging industry landscape and limited 2026F earnings growth prospects, we only recommend to buy on dip.

Investment thesis

•           HSG is the leading galvanized steel sheet and steel pipe producer in Vietnam with 22% market share.

•           Domestic galvanized steel market is positively supported in the long-term by AD on China and South Korea import as well as in the medium-term by government expansionary policy.

•           The company is expanding into construction material retail with its Hoa Sen Home chain (at 148 stores at end 2025 and 300 stores target in 2030)

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and raise our target price to VND178,000/share (13% upside potential), to reflect improving 2025E PVC costs and sustained sales volume growth. Our TP is based on an unchanged target PER of 11x now applied to our 2026E EPS (from average 2025-26E).

Investment thesis

•           Robust fundamentals: we project 2026E NPATMI to grow 9% YoY, underpinned by 11% YoY sales volume growth and stable ASP (-0.5% YoY).

•           Cost and operational advantage: PVC prices remain structurally soft due to weak Chinese manufacturing demand, with only a modest rebound expected (+1.5% YoY).

•           Attractive shareholder returns: consistent cash dividend yield averaging c.10% pa.

We maintain a constructive outlook on DBD, supported by its scalable, affordable product portfolio versus imported drugs and robust growth in the ETC market. In the medium to long term, new production facilities should secure future capacity, broaden the portfolio, and deliver material tax benefits (four years tax-free, followed by a 50% reduction for nine years). Notably, DBD remains among the few credible Vietnamese pharma players without a foreign strategic partner, an area management has expressed strong interest in pursuing.

We leave FY25–26 earnings forecasts unchanged (2025 NPAT: VND331bn, +16% YoY; 2026 NPAT: VND348bn, +9% YoY). Rolling valuations forward to 2026, we raise our target price to VND62,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 12x target EV/EBITDA multiple (vs. regional peer M&A multiples of 13x). With 16.3% implied upside, we upgrade DBD to Outperform.

We upgrade our rating to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) for FPT, with a 12-month SOTP-based target price of VND 186,300/share (from VND 153,100/share) (with 34% upside potential).  We raise our 2025 NPATMI estimates by 6%, factoring in the performance outlook of the upcoming FPT AI Factory, which was launched in mid-November and is targeted to realize revenue from 2025. We also, lift the target P/E for the technology segment to 30x (from 23x) as we believe FPT will continue to increase its market share in overseas markets, promoting the continuing expansion of the technology segment sustaining promising earnings growth over the long-term. During 10M24, the company maintained strong growth in both revenue and PBT (~20% YoY growth for each, generally meeting our expectation). Currently, FPT trades at a 2025F P/E of 22.4x (our target P/E is 30x, with an implied PEG for 2025-2026F of ~1.1x), on the back of 27% YoY EPS growth (vs. global technology peer P/E of 19x, with 11% EPS growth), which we find attractive. For 2025-2026, we forecast a 23%-27% YoY EPS growth for FPT (vs. 11%-12% YoY growth of peers).

We forecast EPS for 2024 and 2025 at VND 1,840/share (+46.9% YoY) and VND 2,313/share (+25.7% YoY), respectively. SZC is well-positioned to capitalize on several factors: (1) The company has over 400 ha remaining available for lease, with 250 ha fully cleared for compensation; (2) Lease prices in SZC are projected to increase compared to other industrial parks in Ba Ria - Vung Tau. Currently, these other IPs are leased at 13% - 15% lower. The connectivity improvements provided by the Bien Hoa-Vung Tau Expressway further enhance SZC's appeal. We maintain OUTPERFORM rating with 1-year target price of VND 43,200/share, representing a 12.9% upside based on the SOTP valuation method.

Earnings for 2Q24 were in line with our estimates, and we maintain our 2024 net profit forecast for GAS at VND 11.1 tn (-3.7% YoY), based on dry gas volume of 6.9 bn m3 (-7% YoY) and a slight price increase of 2% YoY. For 2025, we expect earnings to decline -5% due to a -3.6% YoY drop in dry gas sales volume due to the depletion of the old fields, although the increase in LNG consumption can help to partially offset the decline in total dry gas volume. GAS is finalizing a GSA with POW for the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 power plants, which have achieved 87% progress of the EPC contract and are expected to commence operation during the first half of 2025.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of GAS, with a 1-year target price of VND 79,000/share (from VND 84,000/share before the cash dividend of VND 6,000/share paid in Sept) now based on our 2025 EPS forecasts (previously average 2024-2025 EPS forecasts) and an unchanged 1-year target PE of 17.5x. Over the short-term, the decline in gas prices follows the decline in oil prices and could exert pressure on the company’s earnings and share price over the near-term. In addition, the mobilization from gas-fired power plants in Q3 and Q4 is usually lower than in the second quarter, which can also lead to lower dry-gas demand in the coming quarter.

2Q24 NPAT reaches highest level since 3Q21: 2Q24 Revenue from land lease was VND 233 bn (-11% YoY) with leased area of 7.2 ha (-18% YoY) at USD 92/m2 (+7.8% YoY). The gross profit margin increased sharply to 61.8% (+7.8% YoY), as the company commanded the highest lease prices since the industrial park began operating. Subsequently, net income reached VND 102 bn (+6% YoY). For 2024, we expect lease price increases of 12% YoY, with an MOU expected to be inked from Tripod and other small investors totaling 45 ha (+12% YoY) - higher than the company's annual total leasing plan of 40 ha. In 2H24, SZC's net income is forecast to reach VND 141 bn (+14% YoY). Accordingly, total revenue is estimated at VND 1.08 tn (+32.8% YoY), and net income at VND 308 bn (+ 40.5% YoY) - higher than the company's targets of VND 881 bn in revenue and VND 228 bn in net profit. EPS is VND 1,724 /share, and is equivalent to a forward P/E of 19.8x for 2024 - higher than the industry average P/E of 10.9x.

2023 was an impressive and significant year for Viettel Post (VTP), as the company managed to post impressive earnings growth of 48% YoY, partially on top of the low base in earnings in 2022. PBT reached VND 480 bn (+48% YoY), and NI reached VND 381 bn (+48% YoY). 2023 EPS is VND 2,654/share. Key growth drivers: market share +3%, core revenue +12% YoY, gross margin improvement: + 1.9 percentage points.

During 1Q 2024, VTP posted a slowdown in both top line and bottom line growth, with revenue -2.1% YoY and PBT -22.4% YoY, only completing 16% of the company’s 2024 PBT target after the first quarter and in line with our expectations. Key reasons: trading segment cutback by 30% YoY, higher cost from new capex investment, gross margin decline by 2.4 percentage points.

AGM held successfully with some key targets: revenue -33% YoY due to trading segment cutback, PBT 462 bn flat YoY, cash dividend of 15% on par

For 4Q 2023 and 2024, HHV continues to be benefited from the upcycle of infrastructure investment that resulting in construction as the growth driven factor for sales and earnings during this period. Meanwhile, we assume BOT segment sales growth in 2024 to converge to a natural rate, at 3-5% variable amongst projects. Overall, net earnings for 4Q 2023 and 2024 are respectively forecasted at VND 117 bn (+55% YoY) and VND 477 bn (+12.2% YoY). The lower earnings growth in 2024 net income is due to the high-based performance in 2023. Based on the forecasts for 2024 (which has yet to consider the impact of share placements to 2024F EPS), the P/E forward ratio is around 11.x and the TTM P/E ratio stands at 14.x, which are relatively lower than the three-year average P/E ratio of 16.x. 

We had initially anticipated a double digit decline in revenue and earnings for both 2Q23 and 3Q23. However, 2Q23 results surprised, with revenue declining by -17% YoY and net income by -8% YoY. In July, the decrease in revenue eased to -4% YoY, while net income increased by 10% YoY. This is explained by: (1) more rapid new store opening pace and (2) better-than-expected gross profit margins on product mix changes. Taking recent developments into account, we increase our 2023 and 2024 net income forecasts to VND 1.84 tn (+2% YoY, from VND 1.74 tn) and VND 2.04 tn (+11% YoY, from VND 1.96 tn), respectively. As such, 2H23 earnings may post YoY growth (+4% YoY).  Our higher EPS forecasts prompt us to increase our target price for the shares of PNJ to VND 90,200 per share (previously VND 86,000/share), representing 13.5% upside. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares. 

We reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares FMC. Our updated one-year price target for FMC is VND 56,200/share (from VND 50,600/share), as we roll forward our price target to 2024F EPS - representing +21% upside. FMC exports reached USD 87 mn (-26% YoY) and outperformed the Vietnamese shrimp export market (-32% YoY) during 1H23 due to FMC’s key market in Japan which remain stable YoY.  During 2Q23, FMC reported net sales and NPATMI of VND 1 tn (-27% YoY, +2% QoQ) and VND 71 bn (-59% YoY, +53% QoQ), respectively as 2Q22 was the earnings peak of FMC. 

For 2023, we expect that the company will post net sales and net profit of VND 63.4 tn (+5.7% YoY) and VND 9.1 tn (+5.9% YoY), respectively. This is -1.3% lower than our previous net profit forecast. Such an outlook translates into 2H23 net sales and net income growth of +10% and +18% YoY, respectively. For 2024, we expect net sales and net profit to reach VND 67.4 tn (+6.3% YoY) and VND 10.7 tn (+17.2% YoY), respectively. Our 2024 net profit forecast is 4.4% higher than our previous estimate. We raise our GPM assumption for 2024 from 42.1% to 43% to reflect the declining trend of imported milk powder. Our updated 1Y target price for the shares of VNM is raised to VND 86,600/share (from VND 82,000/share), based on our 2024E EPS and DCF methodology. With upside of 19%, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of VNM.  

During 2Q23, STK reported net sales and net profit of VND 407 bn (-23% YoY; +41% QoQ) and VND 38 bn (-47% YoY) respectively, beating our estimates. Going forward, the company is confident that orders will continue to improve in terms of volume during 3Q23 and 4Q23 on QoQ basis. The declining trend of average PET chip prices should continue to help widen the price gap, and lead to a higher GPM during 2H23. During 2023, we expect net sales and net profit to reach VND 1.8 tn (-14.7% YoY) and VND 167 bn (-31% YoY), respectively. During 2024, net sales and net profit are estimated to reach VND 2.2 tn (+19.7% YoY) and VND 225 bn (+34.4% YoY), respectively. We applied the  historical average P/E of 14x to 2024 EPS to reach our new target price for the shares of VND 33,400/share (up from VND 26,800/share), indicating upside of 5%. We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating. As STK operates in the upper stream of the sector value chain, we expect sales results to be the first sign of a sector recovery, followed by other garment manufacturers. 

GAS is trading at 2024F PE of 15.5x. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for the shares of GAS and raise our 12-month target price to VND106,000/share (from VND 103,000/share), based on 2024F EPS (from 2023F EPS) and an unchanged 1-year target PE of 16.5x. Key upside/ downside risks to our call include: stronger-/weaker-than-expected dry-gas volume; and higher/lower-than-expected fuel prices.