Company Report

Assuming that GVR will achieve its 2019 target, 2019 EPS would be VND 805. At the current price of VND 14,600 per share, GVR is being 2019 PER and PBR of 18x and 1.3x respectively. Amid a comparatively lower natural rubber price, more attention is being drawn to GVR divestment from its non-core business, land compensation income, and its land bank, particularly during the period of rising demand for industrial park.

Based on audited financial statements, 2018 BVPS and EPS of BVH were VND 22,065 and VND 1,612 respectively. At the current price of VND 81,300 per share, the stock is trading at 2018 PBR and PER of 3.7x and 50.4x respectively. Based on the company’s 2019 plan, 2019 BVPS and EPS of BVH on a respective basis are estimated at VND 22,748 and VND 1,676, with current PBR and PER at 3.57x and 48.5x. We estimate that if the capital issuance is implemented in 2H 2019, at the price equal to 3 times BVPS as of June 2019 at VND67,220 per share, BVH would have the proceeds of VND 2.785 tn. 2019F BVPS would pop up at +11% to VND 25,231. The PBR at current price would then be 3.22x.

For 1Q19, VNM reported VND13.19tn in revenue (+8.8% YoY) and VND2.797tn in net profit (+4.3% YoY). The rise in revenue was triggered by 10.3% YoY growth in domestic sales, while export sales grew by only 7.9% YoY. At the current price of VND125,500/share, VNM shares are trading at a 2019E PER of 22.7x, an EV/EBITDA of 14.1x, a 2020E PER of 21.1x, and an EV/EBITDA of 13.1x, respectively, which are not expensive yet not attractive enough (given our low-single-digit growth outlook), in our view. On the heels of our earnings revisions, we lower our 12-month target price for VNM to VND127,000 (previously VND 131,500) based on an unchanged target P/E of 23x applied to our 2019E EPS. We see no strong catalysts that would trigger an upgrade of our call in the short-term. As our new TP offers only 1% upside potential, and is lower than SSI’s overall market expected return from now until end-2019 of 6.8%, we reiterate our Underperform rating.

At the current price of VND 23,250, PC1 is traded at PE 2019F of 8.0x and 2020F of 6.1x. For 2019 results, we think that the company is traded at a reasonable PE compared to its historical PE. However, given the expectation of a strong growth of NPAT in 2020 at 31.6% YoY, the stock is traded at an undervalued price. We apply a PE of 8x to average 2019 and 2020 EPS of VND 3,345 to arrive at a 1-year target price of VND 26,760, a 15% upside. Therefore, we issue an Outperform rating for PC1 in 2019.

At the current price of VND246,000/sh, SAB is trading at 2019E and 2020E PERs of 34x and 31.1x, respectively, and a 2019E and 2020E EV/EBITDA of 20.6x and 18.9x, respectively, on our forecasts. This is slightly above the industry average PER of 31.7x and EV/EBITDA of 12.5x. We note that SAB’s EBITDA margin improved from 16.9% in 2018 to 18.8% in 1Q19, and think that with the aforementioned cost-saving initiatives, the EBITDA margin will likely further improve going forward. Applying a target PER of 33x to our average 2019-20E EPS, we derive our 12-month TP of VND246,700/sh (from VND199,000). With 0.3% upside potential to our new TP, our rating bands call for a Market Perform rating on the stock. Upside risk: stronger-than-expected demand for Sabeco’s beer products; downside risks: higher-than-expected cost of imported malt and hops, and softer-than-expected sales volumes.

BCM 2018 consolidated revenue totaled VND 6.508 tn. The gross profit margin reached 48.6%, quite high compared to the average 5 year margin of 27.9%, mainly attributed to a higher IP rental price. The USD rental price offered by BCM fluctuated from $60/sqm to $90/sqm (for 40-50 years), increasing by an approx. 20% clip compared to the average rental price in 2017. The BVPS and EPS of BCM based on 2018 financial statements are estimated at VND 11,395 and VND 2,036. Therefore, at the current price of VND 25,000, the stock is being traded at 2018 P/B and P/E of 2.2x and 12.3x, relatively high compared to peer averages of 1.4x for P/B and 9.5x for P/E.

Management illuminated AGM attendees regarding their Q1 2019 business results, of which TOI is likely to achieve an encouraging growth of 60% YoY. Finally, with the weight of VAMC provisioning off the shoulders of the bank, we think VIB is free to achieve results that leap ahead even of this plan. For the time being, we maintain our estimate for 2019 PBT at VND 3.2 tn (+18.2% YoY). This translates into a 2019 EPS and BVPS of VND 3,288 (+17.4% YoY) and VND 16,982 (+19.6% YoY) respectively. Based on this estimate (at the current price of VND 19,000), VIB currently trades at 1.1x 2019 PBR, lower than the industry peer average of 1.5x, and providing an additional justification towards attraction for this ticker.

2018 consolidated revenue reached VND 2.858 tn, up 23% YoY and NPAT reached VND 252bn, up 41% YoY, yet reached only 82% and 93% of the business guidance, respectively. The result was in line with our expectations, since in the last 5 years, FCN reached in average only 86% of the revenue guidance and 93% of the NPAT guidance. EPS of VND 3,009 was essentially flat due to the increase of 33mn outstanding shares resulting from the right issuance at ratio 10:6 in March 2018. Given current price of VND 14,700 /share and 2019-2020F diluted core EPS, FCN is trading at 2019-2020F PER of 8.2x and 6.2x, which is in line with the Vietnamese construction company average. On the other hand, FCN is trading at current P/B ratio of 0.8x given 2018 ROE of 15.3%, which is low comparing to peers.

2018 total loans were at VND 230.3 tn, +17.1% YoY, PBT at VND 9.199 tn, +13.1% YoY. In particular: Parent bank total loans and PBT are projected at VND 177 tn, at +16.6% YoY and VND 7.934 tn,  +41% YoY. FE Credit total loans and PBT are forecasted at VND 53.3 tn, +18.9% YoY and VND 4.14 tn, -1.4% YoY. Our current forecast for VPB in 2019 includes growth in total assets, deposits, and credit at 14.3%, 16.2% and 16.3% respectively. We expect 2019F PBT at VND 10.16 tn, a +10.5% YoY rise. EPS and BVPS are forecast at VND 3,308 and VND 17,563 respectively.