Company Report

Maintain BUY with revised 1Y TP of VND 28,200/share on lower target multiples. We raise the 2026F NPAT attributable to shareholders by 11.5% to VND 28,890 bn (+87.0% YoY) and 2027F by 2.6% to VND 28,300 bn (-2.0% YoY). Our 2026F implies 4Q26 NPAT attributable to shareholders of VND 5,308 bn (+37.4% YoY and -35.4% QoQ), on a gross profit margin of 16.0% as costlier coking coal reaches COGS. We maintain our BUY rating but lower our 12-month TP to VND 28,200/share (from VND 32,700), as we cut our target multiples to 8.0x P/E and 7.0x EV/EBITDA (from 12.0x and 9.0x). At the current price of VND 20,400/share, the TP implies +38.2% upside, and HPG remains our top pick in the steel sector.

VIC reported 3Q26 net revenue of VND 150.6tn (+28% QoQ, +285% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 22.4tn (+157% QoQ, +3392% YoY). The strong earnings performance was primarily driven by (i) solid revenue recognition from bulk-sales transactions at Global Gate Ha Long and Saigon Park, (ii) a narrower loss in the industrials segment (iii) a VND 7tn grant from the Chairman. Gross profit margin improved to 32.8% in 3Q26, compared with 25.1% in 2Q26 and -18.6% in 3Q25.

For 9M26, VIC delivered net revenue of VND 372.5tn (+120% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 38.3tn (+472% YoY), beat our FY26 earnings forecast.

We view that VIC appears to have adequate financial flexibility to meet its near-term debt obligations, supported by its ability to access both domestic and international capital markets, as well as recurring cash inflows from property sales. Securing adequate funding remains a key priority to support the capital requirements of large-scale projects and sustain development momentum amid challenging real estate market conditions.

At 10.7x trailing P/B, VIC is trading significantly above its 5-year average of 3.3x. Our estimates are under review following the 3Q26 results.

VHM reported strong 3Q26 net revenue of VND86.3tn (+62%QoQ, +426%YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND23.1tn (+2%QoQ, +453%YoY), exceeding our estimates. Strong earnings were primarily driven by bulk-sales recognition at Global Gate Ha Long, Saigon Park and Ocean Park 2 & 3. Gross margin improved to 59.6% in 3Q26 from 15.0% in 3Q25, driven by high-margin bulk sales transactions, though remaining below the 66.9% recorded in 2Q26.

VHM posted adjusted revenue (including revenue from bulk sales transactions and BCCs) of VND 232.6tn (+234%YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 71.4tn (+396%YoY), exceeding our FY26 earnings forecast by 19%, indicating clear upside to our estimates.

We currently rate Market Perform on Vinhomes (VHM) with a target price of VND 78,800/share (25% upside). VHM is currently trading at a 2027F P/B of 1.5xt, below its five-year average forward P/B of 1.7x. Following the recent price correction and higher- than-expected 9M earnings, we are reviewing our forecasts and ratings.

STB reported a disappointing 3Q26, with pretax profit of approximately VND 1.8tn (-52% YoY, -13% QoQ), falling short of our expectations. Strong non-interest income, led by a 532% YoY surge in net fee income and a 267% YoY increase in FX trading gains, together with a 31% YoY reduction in OPEX, was insufficient to offset a 37% YoY contraction in NII and a 449% YoY jump in provisioning expenses.

STB currently trades at a trailing P/B of 1.98x, a significant premium to the peer average of 1.32x. In our view, this valuation is not supported by the bank’s underlying performance. We therefore place our rating and target price “Under Review” and will reassess our position in future reports should the bank demonstrate a more positive improvement in its fundamentals.

Management expects modest API price increases, with no material COGS impact until after 1H27. The medium-term growth strategy centres on ETC expansion, higher-value products facing less competition, and a broader product mix. Antibiotics’ revenue contribution has declined from 76% to 72%, while future launches will increasingly target non-antibiotic products, including OTC medicines. Imported products are expected to enter the portfolio from late 2027.

IMP5, with estimated capex of approximately VND500bn, is now scheduled to break ground in 2027, with revenue contributions expected around 2030. These initiatives support longer-term growth potential but offer limited relief to near-term visibility.

Outlook and valuation.  Monthly revenue growth slowed from +29.2% YoY in July to +13.9% YoY in September. With a high 4Q25 base and some orders already shipped early, 4Q26 growth may stay positive but slow further. The AGM targets implies TNG only need VND 88bn (-22% YoY) in NPAT for 4Q26, which shouldn’t be hard to achieve.At VND 18,900, the stock trades at 6x trailing P/E (post welfare fund appropriation) against a five-year average of 9x. Our assumed FY26 dividend of VND 2,000/share (VND 1,000 already paid) implies a 10.5% yield. We are placing our rating and target price under review.

9M26 preliminary results

Revenue and NPATMI are estimated at VND 164.5 tn (+58% YoY) and VND 22.9 tn (+11x YoY), respectively, implying 3Q26 NPATMI of ~VND 7 tn (+8x YoY, -9% QoQ). The strong earnings performance was primarily driven by higher volume, wider crack spreads and rising crude oil prices. We note that actual earnings remain sensitive ti the refinery product and crude oil price levels prevailing at the reporting date.

Key highlights from 9M26 performance

•           Sales volume reached 6.1 mn tonnes (+5% YoY). BSR’s 6th turnaround maintenance is scheduled for 2027, which we expect could weigh on volume. However, BSR plans to shorten the maintenance period to 32 days, compared with 50-60 days for previous turnarounds (2011-2024) to help ensure the national petroleum security.

•           Average Brent crude oil price achieved USD 89/bbl (+27% YoY). At end-September 2026, Brent crude oil price stood at USD 104/bbl (+70% YTD).

•           The estimated crack spread for 2026 is ~USD 32/bbl (vs. USD 9.5/bbl in 2025), which is targeted to normalize to USD 18-27/ bbl in 2027.

Price revisions support margin resilience: HT1 has raised selling prices by ~9% on average, broadly offsetting higher input costs (mainly coal) without denting volume growth (1H26 sales volume +9.7% YoY). The ability to raise prices while volumes recover suggests that current demand conditions are becoming more supportive of cost pass-through.

Southern positioning supports infrastructure-led volume recovery: Long Thanh International Airport, the APEC cluster, Ring Roads 3 and 4, and the Southern North-South Expressway network should continue to support cement demand in HT1’s core markets. Newer projects, including the metro system and Can Gio infrastructure cluster, could provide additional medium-term demand support as construction progresses.

Higher utilization should support operating leverage: HT1’s established Southern distribution network and scale position it to capture incremental demand as the recovery broadens. Higher volumes should improve fixed-cost absorption, allowing earnings growth to increasingly come from a combination of volume recovery, pricing discipline, and operating leverage.

Expanding its existing land bank, IDC has been approved to invest in three new industrial parks totaling 806 hectares (Tan Phuoc 1 IP, My Xuan B Expansion IP and Vinh Quang IP), equivalent to 60% of IDC's current business land bank, with operations expected to commence in late 2026. We believe IDC’s diversified IP portfolio, anchored in key Northern and Southern hubs, provides a solid foundation for long-term growth.

New lease area and MOUs are expected to rebound in 2026. New lease area and MOUs in 2026 are projected to reach 83 hectares (+10% YoY), of which 35 hectares will come from contracts carried over from 2025. We believe that stronger industrial park leasing demand in 2026 will be driven primarily by Phu My II Expansion and Huu Thanh, with initial contributions from Tan Phuoc 1 in 4Q26.

High dividend yield. IDC maintains a 40% dividend payout, comprising an estimated 30% cash dividend and 10% stock dividend. Based on the cash dividend, the implied dividend yield is 9.9%.

We maintain our Market Perform rating on Vinhomes, with a 12-month target price of VND78,800/share, implying 11% upside. We raise our FY26 NPAT-MI forecast by 10% to VND61.6tn, mainly reflecting stronger-than-expected bulk-sale recognition across key projects. We forecast FY26 presales to increase 39% YoY to VND284.6tn, supported by an expanding project launch pipeline and continued bulk transactions.

The stronger earnings outlook, however, comes with higher capital intensity. We expect operating cash flow to turn negative in FY26 as inventory build-up and development expenditure accelerate, with debt/equity rising to 0.80x. Potential participation in infrastructure development could provide additional EPC income while improving connectivity to selected projects, but the financial implications remain difficult to assess given limited disclosure on contract status, returns, and funding requirements. We therefore exclude potential infrastructure contributions from our forecasts and valuation.

At 2.2x FY26F P/B, versus a five-year historical average of 1.7x, we believe VHM’s current valuation already incorporates much of the stronger FY26 earnings outlook.

Strong growth supported by superior profitability. MBB reported 2Q26 PBT of VND10.6 trillion, up 41% YoY, while 1H26 PBT reached VND20.2 trillion, equivalent to 49% of our full-year forecast. We project PBT to reach VND41.1 trillion in 2026 (+20% YoY) and VND47.4 trillion in 2027 (+15% YoY), supported by credit growth of around 27% and a sector-leading ROE of 21-22%.

Margin recovery demonstrates earnings resilience. NIM recovered to 4.16% in 2Q26, up 35bps QoQ, driven primarily by a significant increase in lending yields as the bank expanded higher-yield medium and long-term lending, particularly in real estate. The ability to reprice assets faster than funding costs highlights MBB's earnings resilience, although sustaining this performance will increasingly depend on funding management.

Long-term value lies in monetising a 38-million-customer ecosystem. Beyond near-term earnings growth, we believe the bank's most important strategic asset is its rapidly expanding customer base. While MBB has successfully built scale through its digital ecosystem, the larger opportunity remains converting these customers into higher-value relationships through consumer finance, unsecured lending and cross-selling. Successful execution could provide a structurally higher-margin growth engine over the long term.

Fleet expansion boosts revenue and margins: PVT’s fleet to grow to 76 vessels (~2.34mn DWT) in 2027. Higher utilization and favorable TC rates generate incremental revenue with limited fixed-cost impact.

Geopolitical-driven tanker market tightness supports rates: Strait of Hormuz disruptions, elevated war-risk premiums, and operator cautiousness reduce active fleet availability, sustaining charter rates.

Earnings stability orientation also supported by improved TC rates: As PVT pivot vessels back to mid- and long-term TC contracts following a period of spot market exposure with higher near-term earnings, favorable TC contract repricing (est. up 35% YoY) can take over and support earnings.

Disciplined reinvestment ensures long-term resilience: PVT balances fleet growth with financial discipline, preserving earnings sustainability and operational flexibility.

We upgrade PVD to OUTPERFORM with a revised 1Y target price of VND22,300/share. The upgrade reflects improving long-term industry prospects, while the recent earnings weakness has brought valuation back to attractive levels. At the current share price, PVD trades at 16.6x/11.4x 2026–27F P/E, respectively.

Investment thesis

•           Favorable industry outlook, with potential for a prolonged upcycle as uncertainty over Middle East supply supports more sustained upstream development.

•           46% YoY earnings growth expected in 2027, driven by the addition of two new jack-up rigs and higher day rates.

•           More aggressive fleet expansion, with management planning to add three rigs over the next five years.