Company Report

On February 11th, 2025, KDH hosted its 4Q24 earnings call to update on quarterly performance and project progress. We maintain our BUY rating for KDH, with a target price of VND 41,500 per share, representing a 22% upside.

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the recognition of the remaining sold units at The Privia and income from upcoming sales phases of the low-rise section of the joint venture project with Keppel (11.8 ha in the suburb of Thu Duc located right next to HCMC, with KDH owning 51%) to be the main drivers for our 2025 forecast.  As a result, KDH is expected to achieve 2025 net revenue of VND 6.28 tn (+91.6% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 1.18 tn (+46.1% YoY).During the earnings call, KDH management expressed optimism about the real estate market’s development, noting that many developers are preparing to launch new projects in line with new land-related laws, which should enhance market transparency and growth.

MSB reported 4Q24 pretax profit of VND 2 tn (230% YoY, or 65% QoQ), reflecting the low base in 4Q23. Such solid profit growth was driven by strong recovery in NII (31.7% YoY), better NFI (11.4% YoY), trading income improvement in both forex (5x times YoY) and securities (81% QoQ), greater effort in collecting bad debt written-off (400% YoY, or 324% QoQ) and lighter credit provision (-35% QoQ). In general, MSB accomplished 2024 earnings guidance at VND 6.9 tn, beating our projection of VND 6.2 tn.

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for MSB shares with 1Y TP of VND 14,500. MSB is trading at trailing P/B of 0.79x, significantly lower than the historic average of 1.17x since 2020.

HAH achieved its highest quarterly earnings ever. No doubt impressive, this also aligns with our expectation of a robust year, justifying our Buy recommendation. In Q4, NPATMI surpassed historically high quarters during 2021-2022, and exceeded 20% of our estimates for this quarter. HAH reported Q4 sales and NPATMI at VND 1.21 trillion (82% YoY and 7% QoQ) and VND 280 billion (340% YoY and 40.6% QoQ). The earnings followed a QoQ improving trend throughout the year, with preliminary 2024 NPATMI increasing by 70% YoY to reach VND 650 billion. This led to the valuation of HAH being adjusted to a more appropriate level, with the stock trading at a TTM P/E of 10.x and a TTM EV/EBITDA of 4.x.

Although international spot rates have been adjusting as geopolitical tensions ease mixing with freight rallies due to frontloading events, the impact on HAH's earnings is delayed. The charter segment, the primary driver of HAH earnings, has locked in charter rates around Q2. The rate in Q4 2024 doubled, equating a tripling of rates charged during Q4 2023, which should be a strong factor leading to this surge. Meanwhile, the YoY comparable charter rate hit a trough point, with vessels even generating accounting losses in Q4 2023. The domestic market rebound has witnessed a pickup in shipping demand, although it shouldn’t make much a dent due to being characteristic of low yield, despite its high weight in sales.

HDB reported 4Q24 pretax profit of roughly VND 4.1 tn (-7% YoY, or -9% QoQ), mainly due to larger operating expenses (+35% YoY, or +20% QoQ) and a higher provision burden (+47.4% YoY, or +67.5% QoQ). However, NIM improvement (+7 bps QoQ) and better non-NII (+58.6% YoY, or +63.5% QoQ) became a spotlight in 4Q24 business results. In general, HDB achieved 2024 PBT of VND 16.7 tn, beating earnings guidance and in line with our projection.

For HD Saison, 4Q24 pretax profits rose to VND 353.5 bn (+37% YoY), thanks to stable NIM at 30.6%. The NPL ratio improved slightly to 7.39% in 4Q24 given the decent credit growth of 13.2% YTD (or +5.5% QoQ) to VND 18.2 tn.

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for HDB shares with 1Y TP of VND 28,200. HDB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.45x, below the historical P/B of 1.67x since January 2018.

MBB recorded a rise in 4Q24 pretax profit of roughly VND 8.1 tn (+28.5% YoY, or +10.5% QoQ), mainly thanks to an improvement in NII (+21.6% YoY, or +7% QoQ), securities trading income (47x times QoQ), and write-back income (+33.6% QoQ). In general, MBB surpassed company earnings guidance and our estimates alike, with a 2024 PBT improvement to VND 28.8 tn (+9.5% YoY).

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for MBB, with a 1Y TP of VND 25,200. MBB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.06x, below the historical average of 1.4x.

Improving sales, thanks to the advertising & promotions (A&P) campaign in anticipation of the Tet holiday. SAB posted an improvement in 4Q24 net revenue and NPAT of VND 8.93 tn (5% y/y) and 991 bn (3% y/y), trailing our expectation of 1.26tn VND. Net sales was higher, thanks to more aggressive A&P spend (A&P accounting for 16% of net sales compared to 15.7% during 4Q23).

Net margin hurt as COGS rises, partially offset by increase in associate income. GPM of beer category decreased for the 2^nd consecutive quarter, to 31.8% compared to 33.8% during 2Q24, due to higher cost of raw materials. Profit from associates nearly tripled to 130 bn VND, but was offset by increase in SG&A. Overall, while net profit increased 3%, net margin saw a decrease of 20 bps y/y, 400 bps q/q.

Missed full year NPAT target amidst challenging background. For FY24, SAB posted an expansion in net revenue and NPAT of 32.2 tn (5% y/y) and 4.49 tn VND (6% y/y), despite the zero-tolerance alcohol ordinance in place, fierce competition, and weak demand. This result even trailed both the company’s and our NPAT expectations by -7%. Lower interest income and lower profit from associates also hurt the parent company’s profit during 2024, offset by lower A&P spend during 1H24. Overall, SAB recorded a NPAT increase of 6% y/y, and a slight NPM increase from 14 to 14.1%.

We currently hold a MARKET PERFORM rating for SAB, with 1Y TP of 64,500/share. We will follow up with a full report after SAB's analyst meeting on Feb 13^th.

In 4Q24, FRT witnessed expansion through net sales of VND 11.4 tn (32% YoY) and PBT of VND 169 bn, bouncing back from a loss of VND 97 bn in 4Q23, thanks to improved performance of both FPT Shop and Long Chau chains.

Investment view: Revenue and PBT for FY2024 increased to VND 40.1 tn (26% YoY) and VND 527 bn (vs. a loss of VND 294 bn in 2023). Such result was better than our full year PBT estimate of VND 492 bn. Our latest recommendations for FRT was OUTPERFORM. With better than expected 4Q24 results, we see upside to our 2025 earnings estimate, and will update our valuation in a more comprehensive report.

PAN Group posted improvement in key metrics during 4Q24, with net revenue and NPAT of VND 4.27tn (+2% YoY) and 427bn (+13% YoY), beating our NPAT expectation by 15%. 4Q24 growth continued to power an outstanding growth rate to cap off FY2024.

Strong profit growth on a YoY basis were seen in shrimp export (+114%), pangasius exports (+41%), dried nuts & fruit (+21%), while the agricultural chemicals & disinfectants segment remained strong. Seed, packaged rice and confectionery segments decreased slightly by 8-10% due to seasonal factors (last fall’s typhoon, high input costs). GPM increased by 140 bps to 25.2%, mostly thanks to new product/market expansion and lower costs (shipping costs & aqua feed costs).

First time FY NPAT exceeded 1 trillion VND.  PAN posted 2024 consolidated net revenue and NPAT of 16.2tn (+23% YoY) and 1.15tn (+40% YoY) respectively, beating our NPAT expectation by 6%. The company has surpassed its annual NPAT target goal by 33%, mostly thanks to strong performances of publicly traded subsidiaries such as VFG, NSC, and FMC. Excluding one-off income from VFG, PAN’s core NPATMI still recorded a 38% YoY growth (VND 560bn). Looking forward to 2025, the company expects to see more growth from aquaculture and packaged food exports, as well as consumption recovery among Vietnamese consumers.

In 2024, FPT delivered an improvement in revenue and NPAT of VND 62.9 tn (19.4% YoY) and VND 9.4 tn (21% YoY). Meanwhile, PBT grew by 20.3% YoY. All these figures nearly exactly matched our respective forecasts.

Technology segment was the main growth driver, accounting for over 60% and 45% of total revenue and PBT.

We currently recommend a BUY rating for FPT with a 12-month target price of VND 186,300/share (representing 21% upside).

CTR released 2024 results, with an improvement in revenue of VND 12.6 tn (+12% YoY) and NPAT of VND 539 bn (+4% YoY). Both figures are equivalent to 101% of our respective 2024 forecasts (in line with our expectations). Overall gross profit margin achieved 7% (vs. 7.9% in 2023), primarily due to the lower profit margin from the construction segment. For 4Q24, the company achieved VND 3.6 tn (+10% YoY) of revenue and VND 156 bn (+3% YoY) of NPAT. Key takeaways from 2024 results:

We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for CTR, with a 12-month target price of VND 135,000/share.

With an improvement in 4Q24 PBT to VND 5.7 tn (12.4% YoY, or 17% QoQ), ACB accomplished 2024 earnings guidance of VND 21 tn (5% YoY), in line with our quarterly estimate. Such earnings were driven by the recovery in NII (12.6% YoY), NFI (19.5% YoY), better OPEX control (-9% YoY), and lighter credit provision (-54% YoY).

We currently hold a BUY rating for ACB, with a 1Y TP of VND 31,000. This presents a potential upside of 22.5%, and a potential dividend yield of 4%. ACB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.3x, under its 5Y average of 1.7x.

VPB highlighted with a consolidated PBT of VND 6.2 tn (+127% YoY and 18.6% QoQ), beating our projection of VND 5.2 tn, driven by NIM revival (+21bps QoQ) and recovery income (+47% YoY). For 2024, the consolidated PBT reached VND 20 tn (+82% YoY), with a better asset quality in terms of overdue debts (-4% QoQ) and NPL ratios of 4.19% (vs 4.8% in 3Q24).

For parent bank, VPB recorded 4Q24 pretax profit of VND 5.2 tn (+109% YoY, or 14% QoQ), mainly thanks to NIM improvement (+19bps QoQ), better NFI (+76% QoQ) and recovery income (+14.5% QoQ). As such VPB ended 2024 with a solid PBT growth of 35.6% YoY to VND 18.3 tn.

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for VPB shares with 1Y TP of VND 23,400 per share. VPB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.07x, below its historical P/B of 1.63x since 2017.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on PNJ with unchanged net income growth estimate of 18% YoY for 2025 driven by market share gain and easing gold shortage: We expect PNJ market share gain trend will still continue, helping retail sales of PNJ to increase by 14% YoY in 2025. The gold shortage issue might still linger in 2025, though it might not be as severe as in 2024. We hence expect the blended gross profit margin of PNJ to improve in 2025 due to more retail revenue in the sales mix, a less severe gold shortage, and the absence of inventory write down. Net income is projected at VND 2.5 tn (18% YoY, unchanged). As a result, we maintain our BUY recommendation on PNJ with a 1Y target price of VND 123,000 per share, featuring an upside of 28%. 

In 4Q24, DRC recorded net sales of VND 1.1 tn (2% YoY). Main drivers below.

Export sales (51% of the total revenue in 4Q24) declined by -13% YoY due to the imposition of import tax by Brazil (from 2Q23, Brazil accounted for approx. 44% of export revenue) and high freight costs. Although sales to the US (accounted for ~28% of export revenue) increased, brought on by clients diversifying product origin from Thailand to Vietnam prior to the imposition of anti-dumping tax (effective as of this year), this could not offset the decline in sales to the Brazilian market. Export sales volume of truck bus radial (TBR) and passenger car radials (PCR tires) dropped to 131k units (-13% YoY) and 36k units (-12% YoY).

Domestic sales (49% of the total revenue in 4Q24) recovered by 24% YoY from last year low base, back in time DRC’s clients faced financial difficulties due to tight credit. However, tires sold on domestic market are mainly bias tires, which are suffered from the gradual transition from bias to radial tires. Hence, it might be difficult for domestic sales to maintain growth momentum.