Company Report

Since our rating downgrade, MCH’s share price has declined 22%. At this stage, we believe that flattish net income growth for 2025 and the uncertainty of US tariffs may already be discounted into MCH’s share price. As such, with a much more reasonable valuation and long term growth potential, we are upgrading the shares of MCH to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) despite cutting our 1Y target price to VND 157,000/share (from VND 169,000/share). The migration of MCH shares to HOSE is expected sometime between 3Q25-1Q26, which would likely attract investor interest to the name. In addition, MCH has a decent cash dividend policy (60% on par for 2025, 5% dividend yield).

MCH's exposure to the U.S. market is minimal, with exports accounting for < 1% of total sales, which limits the direct impact of tariffs. Given MCH's strong product portfolio, consumer preferences may shift toward in-home consumption during periods of economic uncertainty, helping MCH to sustain earnings. However, broader economic repercussions (including weaker export activity and the potential decline in consumer spending) pose downside risk. In the event of an economic slowdown, MCH may opt to delay product launches, prioritizing cost management and market stability. Additionally, the premiumization trend could extend. These factors may weigh on earnings growth over the near-term. As a result, we trim our 2025 revenue and EBITDA estimates to account for the potential adverse effects of US tariffs. Moreover, the weaker-than-expected financial income during 1Q25 has led us to further reduce our estimates for the year. Our 2025 net income estimate is lowered to VND 7.9 tn (flat YoY, from VND 8.3 tn).

Revenue and net profit during 1Q25 are estimated at VND37tn and VND3.3tn, respectively, providing strong growth of 22%YoY and 16% YoY reflective of substantial sales growth during March with the contribution of the first furnace of Dung Quat 2. HPG‘s construction steel, HRC and billet sales volume increased by 29% YoY to 2.4m tons in 1Q25.

2025 business plan: Consolidated revenue of VND170tn, up 21.4% YoY, and consolidated NPAT of VND15tn, up 25% YoY.

Progress of Dung Quat 2 project: Phase 1 (the first blast furnace) has commenced operation and contributed to the March result. The second furnace is expected to commence operation during September 2025. The company sees some margin improvement for the new furnaces, partially due to lower input costs and from reduced competition.

Railway track project: The high-quality railway track factory is expected to start construction in May in Dung Quat Complex and be completed during May 2027. The project would have a capex requirement of around VND14tn. Preliminary estimates of total steel demand for Vietnam railway projects are around 10m tons.

Reiterate BUY call with 12-month target price of VND33,500/share. We increase our NPAT forecast for 2025F and 2026F to VND17.1tn and VND22.2tn, respectively (up from VND15.3tn and VND21tn). This corresponds to YoY growth of 42.5% YoY and 29.4% YoY, and reflects lower input costs and reduced competition due to HRC AD duties on Chinese imports.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of FPT, with a 12-month target price of VND 129,600 (from VND 156,300/share to reflect the current uncertainty). We recommend “a buy on the dip” if the share price corrects further.

FPT upholds its previously announced 2025 revenue and PBT growth targets of 20% and 21% YoY respectively. However, management believes that potential macroeconomic risks and disruption to the global value chain (following the US tariff policy) could impose challenges for the company to stick to this guidance and maintain double-digit growth momentum in the upcoming years. Further, FPT expects to continue prioritizing key focus areas, including AI, semiconductor, automotive, digital transformation, and green transformation.

We lower our target P/E metrics for technology and education segments to 20x and the telecom segment to 14x. Such P/E levels are similar to that of peers, due to higher uncertainty over the medium term. Our previous respective P/E metrics for these segments are 25x, 23x and 17x.

2025 outlook: We expect revenue of VND 74.6 tn (+18% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 9.5 tn (+21% YoY), which will be driven primarily by the technology segment (nearly unchanged compared to our previous estimates).

Both revenue and PBT saw double-digit growth during 2024, supported by the acceleration of sales and improved cost control.

FOX’s respective targets for revenue and PBT during 2025 are VND 19.9 tn (+13.0% YoY) and VND 4.2 tn (+17.1% YoY). However, due to the most up-to-date tariff policy of the Trump administration, FOX is concerned that customers (especially business clients) may tighten their budget for IT services.

Long-term outlook includes opportunities and challenges. In which, ARPU growth is feasible in the future. Further, potential of satellite internet service could reshape the future of the global telecom industry. On the other hand, FOX management believes that the US reciprocal tariff policy might generate indirect impacts.

HHV's consolidated sales and net earnings are projected to reach VND 3,584 billion and VND 555 billion, respectively, representing year-over-year (YoY) increases of 8% and 12%.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model provides a one-year target price of VND 13,000 per share. We reiterate our BUY rating on HHV shares.

Despite a recent 20% drawdown in the stock price over the past five days due to market correction, HHV should not be significantly impacted by changes in US and other countries' tariff policies. We believe HHV stock presents a compelling opportunity.

AGM highlights: The company has set a conservative net income guidance of VND 3 trillion for 2025, which is flat year-over-year. This cautious outlook is attributed to a shortage of apatite ore and a longer-than-expected licensing process for expanding capacity at Mine Site 25. Consequently, we expect DGC to experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid.

2025 CAPEX Capital expenditures for 2025 will primarily focus on the construction of a Chlo-alkali plant in Nghi Son, which is anticipated to commence operations in Q2 2026. Once fully operational, this plant is projected to generate VND 2 trillion in revenue and VND 200 billion in net income annually, representing approximately 6% of the company's 2024 net income.

Impact of US reciprocal tariff: Exports to the US account for approximately 2% of DGC's total revenue and could be subject to a reciprocal tax of less than 46%, in addition to existing import duty. Given the relatively small contribution of the US market to DGC's overall revenue, the impact is expected to be marginal.

Earnings rebounded to positive growth in 4Q24, driven by the recovery in yellow phosphorus sellingprice. We anticipate that this earnings growth will continue into 2025, supported by favorable selling price, resilient sales volume growth across most product categories, and increased usage of in-house apatite ore. However, due to the current apatite ore shortage in Vietnam, DGC may experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid. As a result, we have revised our 2025 net income estimate to VND 3.5 trillion (a 14% year-over-year increase, down from our previous estimate of VND 4.3 trillion).

Short-term view: Short-term share price performance may face challenges due to significant selling pressure amid uncertainties surrounding the export outlook. However, this could present a strategic entry point for investors, as the company is projected to deliver robust earnings growth of 34% YoY in 2025 and decent longer term growth.

Long term view: Improvement in BHX earnings should be the main growth driver from 2026, while earnings growth of the ICT & CE chains will likely normalize after strong recovery during 2024. We estimate a 2026-2028F net income CAGR of between 15-20%.  

PNJ has released AGM documents, surprising us with decelerating earnings growth guidance for 2025 (VND 1.96 tn, -7% YoY). This likely reflects the continued challenges faced by jewelry retailers due to the gold material shortage, which has made it difficult to pass elevated gold material costs onto customers as those tend to favor gold bars/rings over gold jewelry in the rising gold price environment. Consequently, we trim our 2025 net income estimate to VND 2.24 tn (+6% YoY, from VND 2.5 tn). Our 2025 net income estimate is higher than PNJ guidance as we believe that the company has adopted too conservative a stance in target setting. Our new target price for the shares of PNJ is VND 97,500/share. With a 35% upside, we reiterate our BUY recommendation. PNJ may face gold material shortages and an indirect impact from the US tariff increase (up to 46%) in the short term. However, the stock's current valuation is very compelling, with a forecast 2025F P/E of 12x, which is significantly below the 16.5x average over the past three years.

• 2M25 results met expectations, mainly driven by IT and telecom segments.
• Continuing reluctance in IT spending in the US similar to last year weighed on the overall growth of the global IT field.
• Signed contract value/signed revenue is showing a slowing growth signal.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of FPT, with a 12-month target price of VND 156,300 (from VND 176,400/share) (representing 22% upside).

2M25 results met our expectations, although revenue growth of the global IT field is slowing, as US businesses remain cautious on IT spending (vs. our previous assumption of an improvement in IT spending). While the FPT AI Factory project has not realized revenue, domestic IT revenue still managed to rise 10% YoY, reducing the loss vs. 2M24. The telecom segment performed well with double-digit growth in terms of both revenue and earnings, reflecting FPT’s effective sales efforts and internet service packages optimization.

2025 outlook for the whole sea port sector in terms of volume growth is positive mixed with the current uncertainties in the tariff imposition landscape. The company would seek growth by focusing on: improving revenue/TEU, seeking new services to improve port utilization rate, negotiating for higher pricing.

Divestment of non-core asset, especially from the rubber plantation, would be in focus this year and should provide upside risk for forecast and valuation.

Competition in the North would be higher this year with new supply, but the company would try to maintain and increase its market share by attracting new services. We expect some discount in pricing this year as market share is the priority.

We have revised our 2025 net income forecast to VND 610 bn (+49% YoY, from the previous VND 529 bn), driven by stronger-than-expected 4Q24 results. Consequently, we have raised our one-year target price for FRT shares to VND 220,000 (from VND 215,000), representing an 24% upside, and we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Long Chau pharmacy, which constitutes 89% of FRT's total valuation, continues to be the fastest-growing chain among listed retailers in Vietnam, benefiting from its competitive edge and the relatively low penetration of modern trade (less than 15% of the drug market). The anticipated capital raising at Long Chau could serve as a catalyst for the stock, alongside the positive earnings outlook.

FRT achieved net sales of VND 11.4 tn (32% YoY) and PBT of VND 169 bn, rebounding from a loss of -VND 97 bn for 4Q23 due to improved performance at both FPT Shop and Long Chau pharmacy chains. FPT Shop has been profitable for two consecutive quarters largely due to cost optimization and less intense competition from rival MWG. Meanwhile, pharmacy chain Long Chau continued to deliver upbeat results, driven by store network expansion and improved profitability with existing stores ramping up.

As PLX share price has increased 12% since our last report, we are lowering our rating on the shares of PLX from Outperform to Market Perform with 1-year target price of VND 45,000/share.

PBT for 4Q24 was VND 760 bn, improving 215% QoQ, but declining -11% YoY due to the increase in sales-related expenses. FY2024 PBT was VND 3.96 tn, exceeding guidance by 37% and remaining flattish versus 2023 despite the absence of one-off income from the divestment of PGB during 2023.

We expect that the company’s PBT will increase 14% YoY during 2025, driven by an  increase of 3% in petroleum sales, the implementation of cost-cutting measures, and the potential positive impact from the to be finalized new decree on petroleum businesses.