Company Report

PAN Group posted improvement in key metrics during 4Q24, with net revenue and NPAT of VND 4.27tn (+2% YoY) and 427bn (+13% YoY), beating our NPAT expectation by 15%. 4Q24 growth continued to power an outstanding growth rate to cap off FY2024.

Strong profit growth on a YoY basis were seen in shrimp export (+114%), pangasius exports (+41%), dried nuts & fruit (+21%), while the agricultural chemicals & disinfectants segment remained strong. Seed, packaged rice and confectionery segments decreased slightly by 8-10% due to seasonal factors (last fall’s typhoon, high input costs). GPM increased by 140 bps to 25.2%, mostly thanks to new product/market expansion and lower costs (shipping costs & aqua feed costs).

First time FY NPAT exceeded 1 trillion VND.  PAN posted 2024 consolidated net revenue and NPAT of 16.2tn (+23% YoY) and 1.15tn (+40% YoY) respectively, beating our NPAT expectation by 6%. The company has surpassed its annual NPAT target goal by 33%, mostly thanks to strong performances of publicly traded subsidiaries such as VFG, NSC, and FMC. Excluding one-off income from VFG, PAN’s core NPATMI still recorded a 38% YoY growth (VND 560bn). Looking forward to 2025, the company expects to see more growth from aquaculture and packaged food exports, as well as consumption recovery among Vietnamese consumers.

In 2024, FPT delivered an improvement in revenue and NPAT of VND 62.9 tn (19.4% YoY) and VND 9.4 tn (21% YoY). Meanwhile, PBT grew by 20.3% YoY. All these figures nearly exactly matched our respective forecasts.

Technology segment was the main growth driver, accounting for over 60% and 45% of total revenue and PBT.

We currently recommend a BUY rating for FPT with a 12-month target price of VND 186,300/share (representing 21% upside).

CTR released 2024 results, with an improvement in revenue of VND 12.6 tn (+12% YoY) and NPAT of VND 539 bn (+4% YoY). Both figures are equivalent to 101% of our respective 2024 forecasts (in line with our expectations). Overall gross profit margin achieved 7% (vs. 7.9% in 2023), primarily due to the lower profit margin from the construction segment. For 4Q24, the company achieved VND 3.6 tn (+10% YoY) of revenue and VND 156 bn (+3% YoY) of NPAT. Key takeaways from 2024 results:

We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for CTR, with a 12-month target price of VND 135,000/share.

With an improvement in 4Q24 PBT to VND 5.7 tn (12.4% YoY, or 17% QoQ), ACB accomplished 2024 earnings guidance of VND 21 tn (5% YoY), in line with our quarterly estimate. Such earnings were driven by the recovery in NII (12.6% YoY), NFI (19.5% YoY), better OPEX control (-9% YoY), and lighter credit provision (-54% YoY).

We currently hold a BUY rating for ACB, with a 1Y TP of VND 31,000. This presents a potential upside of 22.5%, and a potential dividend yield of 4%. ACB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.3x, under its 5Y average of 1.7x.

VPB highlighted with a consolidated PBT of VND 6.2 tn (+127% YoY and 18.6% QoQ), beating our projection of VND 5.2 tn, driven by NIM revival (+21bps QoQ) and recovery income (+47% YoY). For 2024, the consolidated PBT reached VND 20 tn (+82% YoY), with a better asset quality in terms of overdue debts (-4% QoQ) and NPL ratios of 4.19% (vs 4.8% in 3Q24).

For parent bank, VPB recorded 4Q24 pretax profit of VND 5.2 tn (+109% YoY, or 14% QoQ), mainly thanks to NIM improvement (+19bps QoQ), better NFI (+76% QoQ) and recovery income (+14.5% QoQ). As such VPB ended 2024 with a solid PBT growth of 35.6% YoY to VND 18.3 tn.

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for VPB shares with 1Y TP of VND 23,400 per share. VPB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.07x, below its historical P/B of 1.63x since 2017.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on PNJ with unchanged net income growth estimate of 18% YoY for 2025 driven by market share gain and easing gold shortage: We expect PNJ market share gain trend will still continue, helping retail sales of PNJ to increase by 14% YoY in 2025. The gold shortage issue might still linger in 2025, though it might not be as severe as in 2024. We hence expect the blended gross profit margin of PNJ to improve in 2025 due to more retail revenue in the sales mix, a less severe gold shortage, and the absence of inventory write down. Net income is projected at VND 2.5 tn (18% YoY, unchanged). As a result, we maintain our BUY recommendation on PNJ with a 1Y target price of VND 123,000 per share, featuring an upside of 28%. 

In 4Q24, DRC recorded net sales of VND 1.1 tn (2% YoY). Main drivers below.

Export sales (51% of the total revenue in 4Q24) declined by -13% YoY due to the imposition of import tax by Brazil (from 2Q23, Brazil accounted for approx. 44% of export revenue) and high freight costs. Although sales to the US (accounted for ~28% of export revenue) increased, brought on by clients diversifying product origin from Thailand to Vietnam prior to the imposition of anti-dumping tax (effective as of this year), this could not offset the decline in sales to the Brazilian market. Export sales volume of truck bus radial (TBR) and passenger car radials (PCR tires) dropped to 131k units (-13% YoY) and 36k units (-12% YoY).

Domestic sales (49% of the total revenue in 4Q24) recovered by 24% YoY from last year low base, back in time DRC’s clients faced financial difficulties due to tight credit. However, tires sold on domestic market are mainly bias tires, which are suffered from the gradual transition from bias to radial tires. Hence, it might be difficult for domestic sales to maintain growth momentum.

We are establishing a new target price on the shares of PVD at VND 28,700/share (~20% upside) [previous target VND 32,000/share] and are reiterating our OUTPERFORM rating. Most recent result were impressive, as 3Q24 revenue and NPATMI grew 77% and 21%, respectively, as all segments posted strong results.  PVD recently announced an investment in a new jack-up rig, which is expected to become operational at the end of 2025. We also anticipate 25% YoY NPATMI growth of 4Q 2024 as well as a potential one-off gain over the near-term associated with PVD’s potential rig/asset divestiture to act as share price catalyst. We believe that the recent share price correction presents an excellent opportunity to accumulate the shares.

Revenue increased to VND 10.5 tn (26% YoY), while PBT jumped to VND 197 bn (146x YoY). Notably, FPT Shop earnings revert back to profitability in the quarter (PBT of VND 40 bn in 3Q24) after 6 consecutive quarters incurring losses. Meanwhile, Long Chau continued to post solid earnings, despite aggressive new openings of both drugstores and vaccine centers.

2024-2025 is and will likely end up being the early phase of a new earnings cycle, wherein FPT Shop earnings will revert back to profitability after a prolonged period of destocking and cost optimization, while the Long Chau  will continue to achieve strong performance from scaling up its store network and profit margin expansion. Given 3Q24 earnings growth momentum, we revise 2024-2025 net income to VND 392 bn (vs a loss of VND 329 in 2023, from VND 360 bn) and VND 529 bn (+35% YoY, from VND 511 bn). Long Chau pharmacy network expansion (from 1849 stores as of 3Q24 to over 3,000 in 2-3 years) and profitability improvement (from 1.9% in Q1-Q3 ‘24 to >3% when stores reach optimum level) should be the main growth driver for FRT over the long term. The Long Chau vaccine business should further aid growth, though its contribution in Long Chau is quite small (4%-9% of Long Chau 2024-2025 revenue). Given the promising earnings outlook, we call for an OUTPERFORM rating on FRT, with a target price of VND 215,000 (18% upside).

HSG recorded a net loss of VND 186 bn in 4QFY24, a contrast to the positive profit of VND 438 bn in 4QFY23 and VND 273 bn in 3QFY24, and lower than our estimate due to the decline in steel price and the depreciation that affected the export price. The steel sales volume of the company increased strongly by 27.9% YoY to 499k tons in the recent quarter, albeit falling by 3.1% QoQ due to seasonal factor. Cumulatively, HSG attained a net profit of VND 510 bn for the whole of FY2024, an increase by 17x off the low base in the previous year.

For FY2025, we expect the net profit to increase by 37% YoY to VND 699 bn thanks to a slight increase by 2% YoY in sales volume, and the improvement in gross margin due to a more stable steel price and the increase in proportion from domestic channel that usually carries a higher margin.

Despite the strong earnings growth potential in 2025, the 2025F PE and EV/EBITDA forwards are still demanding at 16.7x and 7.1x respectively. As a result, we maintain our current MARKET PERFORM rating for the stock with 1 -year target price of VND 20,000/share based on target PE and EV/EBITDA of 14x and 7.5x respectively.

Looking forward into 2025, PNJ market share gain trend will still continue, helping retail sales of PNJ to increase by 14% YoY in 2025. The gold shortage issue might still linger in 2025, though it might not be as severe as in 2024. With a narrower price gap between international and domestic gold price, there will be  less incentives for unauthorized purchase gold from overseas to resell on domestic market, hence reducing the need for control over gold origin and easing the gold shortage might ease in 2025. We hence expect the blended gross profit margin of PNJ to improve in 2025 due to more retail revenue in the sales mix, less severe gold shortage, and the absence of inventory write down. Net income is projected at VND 2.5 tn (18% YoY). With revised 2025 estimates, we derive a new target price for PNJ at VND 117,000 per share, with upside of 21%. As the stock recently pulled back on 3Q24 earnings weakness, we upgraded our rating from OUTPERFORM to BUY.

We upgrade our rating to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) for FPT, with a 12-month SOTP-based target price of VND 186,300/share (from VND 153,100/share) (with 34% upside potential).  We raise our 2025 NPATMI estimates by 6%, factoring in the performance outlook of the upcoming FPT AI Factory, which was launched in mid-November and is targeted to realize revenue from 2025. We also, lift the target P/E for the technology segment to 30x (from 23x) as we believe FPT will continue to increase its market share in overseas markets, promoting the continuing expansion of the technology segment sustaining promising earnings growth over the long-term. During 10M24, the company maintained strong growth in both revenue and PBT (~20% YoY growth for each, generally meeting our expectation). Currently, FPT trades at a 2025F P/E of 22.4x (our target P/E is 30x, with an implied PEG for 2025-2026F of ~1.1x), on the back of 27% YoY EPS growth (vs. global technology peer P/E of 19x, with 11% EPS growth), which we find attractive. For 2025-2026, we forecast a 23%-27% YoY EPS growth for FPT (vs. 11%-12% YoY growth of peers).

Nam Dinh Vu (phase 3) legal process is completed, and the project has started construction during 4Q 2024. Gemalink Phase 2 is awaiting for legal process and might complete in 1Q2025.

Trump 2.0 policies & potential impact: our view is that main impact will be volume growth of seaports, with a positive impact on the years discussing and applying tariffs (due to rushing the frontloading of cargo before the tariff date imposition), and a negative impact on the years thereafter (2017-2019 volume growth of the Hai Phong region: 9%, 7%, and 3.5% YoY), while price impact (revenue/TEU) is mainly due to the application of tariffs (-6.6% YoY during 2017, +4.4% YoY during 2018, and flat during 2019 based on ports in the Hai Phong region).

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM, with revised 1-year target price of VND 71,500/share (~11% upside), and some further correction would present a very good risk/reward ratio to start accumulating the shares. The stock remains our favorite pick for exposure into deep sea port and Vietnam trade growth story.

We have revised our 1-year target price to VND 44,000/share (down from VND 48,000/share) due to a 9% downward adjustment in 2024-2025 earnings projections. Despite this, we are upgrading our stock rating from Market Perform to Outperform. We believe the recent sharp correction in share price has already reflected the lower-than-expected earnings in 3Q24. Additionally, PLX's business results are expected to recover in the coming quarter, supported by a 6%-7% rebound in petroleum prices since early October. For 2025, we anticipate a 9.7% increase in PBT to VND 4.78 trillion, driven by a 4% growth in retail sales volume. Our forecast does not yet include the potential impact of the new Decree of Petroleum Business, as it has not been finalized.