Company Report

We upgrade HDB to BUY with a 12-month target price of VND 35,000, implying 32.1% upside, supported by continued earnings growth and sustained above-system credit expansion.

The growth profile is clear, but the investment case hinges on execution. HDB continues to deliver strong headline metrics: high credit growth, robust ROE, and an expanding ecosystem. The more relevant question at this stage is not whether growth persists, but whether the balance sheet can scale efficiently without eroding returns.

HDB retains a structural advantage in credit allocation, with capacity to grow loans at ~35% over 2025–2027 — materially above the system, supported in part by its role in restructuring weaker institutions. This creates a window to accumulate market share faster than peers, reinforcing earnings momentum. At the same time, it places greater emphasis on funding discipline and risk management as the credit cycle matures.

Importantly, the composition of growth is improving. Credit expansion is increasingly diversified across manufacturing, services, retail trade, SMEs, and household businesses, reducing concentration risk. Rather than relying on a single lending segment, HDB is building a broader, more resilient franchise aligned with Vietnam’s consumption growth and formalization trends.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation with a lower target price of VND 61,600/share than our previous report reflecting lower anticipated PBT in 2026 due to sudden resin price recovery. Our target price is derived from a 5-year sector average P/E of 13.1x, and  P/B ratio of 1.9x. NTP could be a defensive choice for stock investment based on fundamental strength and construction sector momentum.

Stable construction sector trajectory and backlogs boost revenue increment. We expect consolidated revenue could accelerate by +12.5%YoY to around VND 7.8tn, fuled from increasing ASP and the carry-over backlog. Total consumption could extend to nearly 148 thousand tons of pipe, rising by +10%YoY.

Capacity to increase the ASP corresponded to resin price recovery. This could preserve the revenue growth and mitigate the unpredictable input risk affecting net margin due to 100% import dependence.

Asset structures minimizes interest risk exposure. Maintaining large amounts of cash and short-term investment helps company less likely to expose high interest rates borrowing, and even benefited from favorable deposit rate generating net financial income to support the PBT of company. We estimate a 100bps increase in interest rate would translate into an additional VND 27 bn in financial income (~3% of 2026 PBT).    

We expect Vingroup to deliver strong earnings growth in FY26, supported primarily by robust property sales momentum at Vinhomes. Vinhomes’s FY26 presales value is forecasted to increase 28% YoY to VND 262.2tn, driven by ongoing projects and three new launches. Bulk sales transactions are expected to remain the primary contributor to total presales value.

VinFast is expected to maintain strong volume growth, with automobile sales projected at 270k units in 2026 (+37% YoY) and e-scooter sales reaching 750k units (+85% YoY). VinFast’s global EV expansion is likely to remain loss-making in the near term, acting as a key earnings headwind; however, if the proposed restructuring plan is approved, it could help improve VinFast’s earnings contribution through a more asset-light structure and reduced cost burden.

We forecast FY26 revenue of VND 455.9tn (+37% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 30.8tn (+171% YoY). FY26 earnings are expected to be driven mainly by (i) property sales recognition from Green Paradise, Ocean Park 2&3, Royal Island, Wonder City, and other projects; and (ii) VND 22tn of financial support from the Chairman. Excluding the Chairman’s support, FY26 NPAT is estimated at VND 13.9tn, compared with a loss of VND 7.3tn in FY25.

In our view, Vingroup’s earnings profile remains fundamentally anchored by its real estate business, supported by continued project launches and ongoing sales activity. Earnings visibility continues to depend largely on property sales performance — particularly bulk sales transactions — as well as potential asset divestments, one-off financial income, and recurring financial support from the Chairman.

We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on VIC. Beyond expectations surrounding Vietnam’s potential market upgrade, VIC has also emerged as a key beneficiary of the market’s renewed preference for large private-sector conglomerates (conglomerate premium in short), supported by increasingly favorable policy rhetoric toward the domestic private sector. The stock’s market capitalization has risen to approximately 28% of total HSX market capitalization, creating a significant technical rebalancing requirement across both institutional and retail portfolios. As many investors remain materially underweight relative to VIC’s benchmark representation, the need to increase allocations (from zero-weight) could continue to provide meaningful technical support and sustain incremental demand for the shares in the near term.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on ACB with a 12-month target price of VND 27,500/share, implying upside potential of 20.9%, alongside a projected dividend yield of approximately 3%. Our target valuation is based on a target P/B multiple of 1.3x, which remains below the bank’s historical average of approximately 1.5x.

Best-in-class asset quality remains a core strength: Asset quality continues to be one of ACB’s key investment pillars. The bank remains among the strongest performers in our coverage universe, with non-performing loans consistently maintained at around 1% and loan loss coverage sustained above 100%. This reflects ACB’s prudent underwriting standards and conservative provisioning approach, which we believe provide a meaningful buffer against ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

Earnings recovery expected to normalize in 2026: Following two years of below-trend earnings growth, we expect ACB’s pre-tax profit to recover to VND 22.3tn in 2026, representing growth of 14.2% YoY. While net interest margin (NIM) pressure is likely to persist in the near term, we expect this to be offset by resilient fee income growth (+14.4% YoY) and a significant decline in credit costs (-35.7% YoY), supporting overall earnings normalization.

Attractive valuation relative to fundamentals: ACB is currently trading at 1.07x 2026E P/B, materially below its long-term historical average of around 1.5x. In our view, the current valuation already reflects the weak earnings growth seen during 2024–2025. As profit growth is expected to return to double digits in 2026, we believe the stock offers meaningful re-rating potential.

As POW’s share price has risen 10% since our previous update, we downgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from BUY) while maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 16,000/share, implying an upside of 11%.

Investment thesis

Domestic gas-fired generation should remain a stable pillar of Vietnam’s power supply in 2026, supported by the return of El Niño conditions. In contrast, alternative power sources remain either weather-dependent or reliant on imported inputs.

The Nhon Trach 3&4 project provides a stronger earnings foundation, having secured minimum contracted output (Qc) equivalent to approximately 65% of its multi-year average generation level.

Following the share price correction from its end-March 2026 peak, we upgrade HDG to OUTPERFORM (from Market Perform), with a revised 12-month target price of VND 29,000/share (previously VND 31,300), implying 13% upside. The lower TP reflects more conservative assumptions for the Infra 1 power plant and delays in sales recognition at the Hado Green Lane project.

Short-term earnings drag, long-term normalization: HDG recorded a VND 193bn provision expense in 1Q26 related to potential retroactive adjustments at the Infra 1 plant. This reflects a prudent stance amid evolving regulatory guidance from EVN. We view these charges as non-recurring, as they are limited to the period between COD and receipt of the Completion Acceptance Certificate (CCA).

Emerging growth drivers: Earnings recovery is expected to be supported by (i) renewed sales momentum at Hado Charm Villas (after muted activity in 2025), and (ii) commissioning of the La Trong plant, targeted for 3Q26.

Reduced FX risk: The conversion of EUR-denominated debt at the 7A wind power project into VND has lowered foreign exchange exposure, improving balance sheet resilience.

We raise our SOTP based 12 month target price to VND30,000 from VND25,300, underpinned by a sharp improvement in earnings outlook and a sustained uptrend in global urea prices. We forecast 2026 net income of VND2.25tn (+106% YoY), reflecting stronger margin dynamics and improved earnings visibility. With ~15% upside to our target price and following the recent share price correction, we call for OUTPERFORM rating on DPM. At 8.9x 2026E P/E, the stock trades at a compelling discount to its 10 year historical average of 15x, despite a structurally stronger margin profile.

Urea margin expansion supported by uninterrupted production operations and persistently elevated global urea prices.

Full year benefit from VAT rebates in 2026, following implementation of the revised VAT law effective July 2025.

Incremental financial income uplift from higher deposit rates, leveraging the company’s robust net cash position.

We maintain our BUY rating on HPG and revise our 2026-end target price to VND 36,000/share (from VND 35,000/share) to reflect a stronger core earnings outlook, translating to 27.7% upside from the current price, based on a combination of P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple. The stock remains our favorite choice for an infrastructure investment play and our top pick in Steel for 2026.

2026 is the first full year of operation for the Dung Quat 2 steel mill, with 9 mn tonnes of HRC capacity, as well as the first full year of anti-dumping duties on China HRC. Thus, substantial growth in both the top and bottom line (+40% YoY and 47% YoY for core business, respectively) is expected.

The government’s huge investment plan of VND 38 quadrillion over the next 10 years should boost demand, while competition from imports is limited by safeguarding and anti-dumping duties on key steel products, especially HRC and construction steel.

Implementation of an additional anti-dumping duty on wide-width HRC from 2Q 2026 should provide further protection for HPG’s key products and ensure a long-term favorable industry landscape.

We raise our 12-month target price for FRT to VND 178,000 per share (from VND 174,000), reflecting higher 2026 net income forecasts of VND 1.44 trillion (+46% YoY). With an implied upside of 17%, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. At the current price of VND 150,800 (as of April 20, 2026), FRT is trading at 24x 2026F P/E—representing a meaningful discount to its historical average of 40x.

Resilient pharmacy segment: Long Chau’s growth remains largely insulated from external geopolitical pressures, including the Middle East conflict, given the essential nature of pharmaceutical products.

Limited downside from ICT retail: While FPT Shop may see moderating earnings following peak demand, its relatively small contribution to consolidated earnings limits the overall impact on FRT.

Improving financial position: A steadily declining leverage profile enhances financial resilience and provides a buffer against potential interest rate increases.

We reaffirm our BUY rating on FPT, with a revised 12-month TP of VND101,600/share (from VND110,400). The adjustment reflects lower target P/Es for the education segment at 16x (from 18x) and technology segment at 17x (from 18x) to better align with peers, while maintaining 14x for telecom. FPT is currently trading at 13x 2026E P/E, a meaningful discount to global peers at 17x, despite delivering higher EPS growth (15% vs. 11%), which we believe is not fully priced in.

Overseas market will be the key growth driver (especially in Japan), with long-term investments in strategic technologies. In 2025, signed contract value/signed revenue grew by 23% YoY (vs. 13% YoY in 2024).

Public sector digitalization adds medium-term optionality. FPT will collaborate with the Government in digital initiatives, providing a structural growth for domestic IT services.

AI transition: near-term neutral to positive. While investor concerns around AI disruption are valid, enterprise adoption remains gradual and requires system integration, customization, and data handling — areas where FPT is structurally positioned. At this stage, AI is more likely to support demand and enhance productivity than displace IT services.

Beneficiary of knock-on effects from Middle East disruptions. Supply-side shocks—particularly in fertilizers and logistics—are expected to tighten global agricultural markets and support pricing. PAN is well positioned to capture this upside, given its integrated exposure across the agri-food value chain.

Compelling valuation within the EM agri-food universe. PAN is trading at undemanding multiples relative to its growth outlook and return on equity potential. The market continues to price the company as a cyclical name, underappreciating its transition toward a structurally improving, integrated agri-food platform.

Upside from asset monetization and capital redeployment. The Bibica divestment, alongside potential monetization of real estate and land bank assets, offers scope for value unlocking. These initiatives should also enhance capital allocation efficiency and support a potential re-rating.

KBC is currently trading at 2026fw P/B of 1.2x, lower than its 5-year average of 1.4x. We maintain our Outperform rating for KBC, with a 1Y target price of VND39,500/share, implying 13% upside.

KBC significantly expanded its land bank in 2025 across both industrial park (IP) and residential developments, adding a total of 3,026ha. This expanded land portfolio underpins sustainable earnings growth over the coming years.

KBC is well positioned to benefit from FDI inflows, supported by its sizable industrial land bank, particularly in northern Vietnam where demand from high tech and electronics manufacturers remains strong.

We estimate a 35% YoY increase in core earnings, mainly supported by the remaining backlog of 158ha as of end-2025.

SZC is currently trading at 2026F multiples of 19.9x P/E and 2.0x P/B, above sector averages of 11.9x and 1.83x, respectively. Our rating is Market Perform, with a 12-month target price of VND32,300/share (SOTP-based), implying 10.4% upside.

Investment thesis

•           Short term headwinds. SZC faces near term pressure from lower leased area versus 2025, driven by the absence of major tenants. Contributions from residential real estate remain modest, limiting earnings visibility.

•           Medium to long term land bank advantage and margin strength. SZC retains a sizable land bank of more than 400 hectares available for lease, with 150 hectares already cleared. This provides a strong pipeline for future leasing. In addition, low compensation costs for land clearance allow SZC to sustain gross margins above 60%, reinforcing profitability.

•           Rental upside potential. Current rental rates are 10–18% below other industrial parks in Ba Ria–Vung Tau. With infrastructure connectivity significantly enhanced by the Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway, SZC is well positioned to capture rental price increases over time.

We maintain a MARKET PERFORM rating on MCH with a 12-month target price of VND 130,000, implying 7% downside. The stock is currently trading at a 2026F P/E of 24x, significantly above its 5-year historical average of 19x, indicating limited upside at current levels.

Investment thesis

•           Recovery in the traditional (general trade) distribution channel is expected to support near-term growth.

•           Attractive dividend policy, with a payout of 50% on par value, equivalent to an approximate 4% yield.

•           Valuation appears stretched relative to peers, with key comparables trading at lower multiples (e.g., SAB at 13x P/E and VNM at 14.6x P/E).