Company Report

HPG posted preliminary 3Q20 record high revenue and net profit of VND 24,900 bn and VND 3,785 bn, respectively, achieving remarkable growth YoY rates of 62% and 110%. The net margin improved from 11.6% in 3Q19 to 15.2% in 3Q20, which is also the highest level since 4Q18 given the full utilization of the current furnace. Cumulatively, HPG’s revenue and net profit in 9M20 amounted to VND 65 tn and VND 8,845 bn, respectively, surging by 40% and 56% YoY. At the current price, HPG is trading at attractive 2020E and 2021E PE of 8x and 6.8x respectively. Given the aforementioned longer-term momentum in revenue and net profit, we are raising our 12-month price target to VND39,300/share (previously VND32,400/share before adjustment for 2019 dividend paid in Jul). As such, we also reiterate our BUY rating on the shares of HPG. 

Given the protectionist measures expected to be implemented which should positively impact domestic sugar consumption along with the return to profitability for the biomass segment in 2021, we are increasing our share price target on the shares of QNS to VND 43,100 per share – representing 28.7% upside and an ROI of 37.6% when the dividend yield is included.   In addition, our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares is supported by: i) soymilk sales exceed industry average; ii) in 2021, both sugar and biomass segments are anticipated to benefit from a higher sugarcane yield and higher ASP troughing during the COVID-19 pandemic; iii) the completion of an enormous CAPEX plan for sugar/biomass.

We lower our 1-yr target price for MSN to VND 60,500 (from VND 64,900) - which represents 9% upside potential - after accounting for the recent acquisition of a 12.6% stake in The CrownX (TCX). Nevertheless, we retain our Market Perform stance on the shares, as we believe that the likely significant earnings decline for 2020-2021 associated with the VCM consolidation is mostly priced in. The likely decent performance of the consumer and banking segments would be a plus, while we expect a recovery from H2 2020 in the feed business of MML. On the negative side, MSN faces significant challenges: a) its consumer retail business has yet to reach break-even EBITDA; b) the impact of low commodity prices on its mining business; and c) increased leverage which will act as a drag on the 2020-2021 earnings. 

We are upgrading the shares of VCB from Underperform to MARKET PERFORM, as the share price has declined by approximately -8% over the past three months (-1.2% decline in HOSE over that period). Supportive of our call, VCB’s 2H2020 and 2021 TOI outlook has become even more compelling given its renewed focus on mortgage lending and bancassurance, and impressive credit growth – exceeding that of peer - given the impact of Covid-19. VCB is also planning on issuing 6.5% additional shares. Although this share issuance will be modestly EPS dilutive, we estimate it will be BVPS accretive by 10.9% (expected issuance price VND 70,000 per share while pre-money BVPS around VND 25,275 per share) which is important as the shares trade more on a BV basis than EPS. That said, we lower our 12-month target price to VND 89,200 (from VND 89,900) due to lower forecast for 2020F and 2021F earnings as a result of higher Covid-driven newly formed NPL and restructured loans. 

AAA’s 2Q20 revenue and net profit significantly declined -25.5% YoY and -47.2% YoY, respectively, to VND 1.811 trillion and VND 74 billion due primarily to the fall in oil prices and the absence of new industrial park leases. As earnings from AAA’s core business was is in line with our expectation, we maintain our 2020 after-tax profit call of VND 450 bn (-10.4% YoY). We expect the company’s earnings to recover in 2H20 and 2021 due to the improvement in industrial park bookings during the second half of this year, and also from the consolidation of An Vinh Industrial Packaging. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating for the stock, with a 1-year target of VND 14,850/share.

We reiterate Outperform rating for PLC, with an ROI of 20.5% (7.4% dividend yield) as we revise our target price to VND 23,700 per share (previously VND 18,600 per share). Our new target price is derived from improved 2020/2021 earnings growth outlook post-Q2 bottom-line performance. In Q2 we witnessed +46.7% YoY NPAT improvement or the achievement of 74% of PLC’s annual profit target which were boosted by the resilience of both the lubricant segment and Vietnam Dong forcing us to upgrade our EPS forecast by 23% and 5% for 2020 and 2021, respectively. Coupled with PLC’s positive 2021 (and beyond) outlook driven by a new cycle of public investment, the shares have advanced 36% since our April 29, 2020 upgrade. Considering the current operating environment of aggressive public investment, not to mention about weaker USD, we believe that PLC’s outperformance will continue.  

MWG continues to be adversely affected by the decline in discretionary consumer spend. That said, MWG is likely to be the primary beneficiary of other retailers exiting the market as it continues to absorb market share. MWG is well-poised to quickly resume strong growth when the pandemic no longer poses public health risks, which SSI believes will occur by mid-2021. We also find that a more deliberate grocery store openings pace by BHX (ie, slow down opening speed and only open stores in provinces where it has an existing footprint) will aid in its ability to break even on a pre-general and administrative expense basis by year-end 2020. A substantially more efficient grocery operation should enable MWG to be a beneficiary of the long-term shift in consumer shopping habits from wet markets to the more modern trade grocery stores. In addition, our constructive view on the shares is supported by our new price target of VND 113,700 (from VND 129,560) which implies upside of 30%. Our TP is predicated on combination of a target P/E of 9x per average 2020-2021 ICT financials estimates, as well as on a target P/S of 0.3x on average 2020-2021 estimates for grocery financials (unchanged multiples on our new estimates detailed on page 6; previously on 2020E).  

We maintain a BUY rating for KDH due to its solid backlog of deliveries valued at VND 3.8 tn (+40% compared to 2019) from the recurring projects of Lovera Vista and Safira, which will guarantee next year’s earnings growth. KDH possesses a clean landbank (650 ha) in HCMC, one of the largest compared to other listed developers in Southern Vietnam. With such strong potential, we revise up our 1-year target price by 7% since our last call to VND 29,800 (+21.4% upside) based on RNAV method, as we fully factor the potential value of 2 new projects of KDH (Amerna and Clarita). KDH also recently was included into the VN30 basket recently, and it will be a major factor to improve the stock’s trading volume and its performance in the future. 

Vinhomes reported 2Q20 NPATMI results of VND 3.76 tn, a decline by -48.6% YoY as the Company was operating off a high NPATMI base with recognition of a bulk sale in 2Q19, as well as from an extraordinary payment of VND 930 bn on termination of certain investment agreement for two residential projects of which development timelines were delayed. However, 1H20 NPATMI still increased by +7.6% YoY to VND 10.6 tn, fulfilling 34% of the full year target. Presales volume also rose +15.3% YoY, with a +21% YoY increase in value in 1H20. Volume performance was mainly driven by three megaprojects – Ocean Park, Smart City and Grand Park – with bulk sales driving momentum. A full 9,000 unit deliveries occurred in 1H2020, while another 21,000 are expected in 2H 2020, giving us increased confidence that VHM will achieve its 2020 guidance. VHM remains the leading developer in Vietnam, possessing the largest land bank in the country - approx. 20x the size of its nearest competitor. As many of its competitors have development projects which are bogged down procedurally, new project launches have been delayed. With several projects available for sale, VHM is the primary beneficiary of the current tight supply. As we believe the market is not effectively discounting the value of the Company’s massive 164 million sqm GFA development portfolio, we maintain a BUY rating for the shares with a VND 113,000/share price target, which implies a 42% upside. VHM is currently trading at a discounted P/E of 11.8x relative to local peers, and a respective regional peer average of 13.8x and 12.1x. 

Double hit by COVID-19 pandemic and the growing trend of deep seaports, VSC reported a 10.7% YoY drop in 1H 2020 revenue (reaching VND 801 bn) due to 20% decrease in port throughput volume. Net income, however, increased by +33.8% YoY to VND 141 bn in 1H 2020 due to better cost control and the absence of one-off expenses. While we like VSC for its stable dividend of 20% cash on par per year, equivalent to a 7% dividend yield, we suggest to watch 2 notable performance indicators in the coming quarters:  Firstly, we are concerned about VSC’s drop in handling volume at much higher scale than its competitors in Haiphong area in 1H2020 and we want to see if this situation could be improved in the coming quarters or not.   Secondly, we are positive on VSC’s ability to better control cost and improve corporate governance issue.  If we apply the 2019 gross margin for 1H2020, then according to our calculation the saving cost would approximate VND 14bn in 1H alone.  We expect that gross margin improvement could be maintained, especially when the handling volume resumes along with demand improvement after the Covid-19 is contained. VSC is trading at a 8.2x multiple of 2021 EPS. Applying a 2021 target P/E and P/B at the sector average of 9x and 1.1x, we arrive at 1-year target price of VND 36,700/share, which implies an upside of 13.6%. Our rating for the stock is MARKET PERFORM.

In 2Q2020, TCB continued to report resilient results, with TOI and PBT achieving VND 5.75 tn (+27.7% YoY) and VND 3.62 tn (+18.8% YoY). This was an impressive achievement given a modest credit growth of +3.5% YTD.  2Q earnings results were driven by both strong NIM (4.32%) and robust activities in corporate bonds and government bond. Net fee income in 2Q 2020 rose +23.4% YoY, driven primarily by bond services (+52.4% YoY). In the meantime, TCB posted VND 328 trillion from securities trading and investment gains in 2Q2020, more than double YoY. CASA balance rose to an absolute amount of VND 6.28 tn (+7.9% YTD), entirely thanks to retail customers. We maintain our 2020F and 2021F PBT forecast of VND 13.41 tn (at +4.5% YoY) and VND 14.26 tn (at +6.3% YoY) respectively. We also maintain our Outperform rating but revise down our 1Y target price to VND 22,200 per share, presenting investors with an upside of 12.1%. 

BID posted 2Q 2020 PBT of VND 2.64tn (up by 20.6% YoY). Results exceeded our expectations given the outperformance of trading and investment securities (VND 1.038 tn, + 500% YoY), and the reduction in provision expenses (-26.2% YoY). BID’s improvement was offset by a sharp decline in net interest income (-23.6%). We raise our 2020 PBT forecast by VND 1.15 tn to VND 8.693 trillion (still lower -19% YoY), mainly to reflect the positive results of 2Q 2020. We anticipate 2021 PBT to essentially meet previous expectations VND 12.89 trillion (+48.3% YoY). We are still worried about the potential impact of the second wave of the pandemic on loan quality, and assume COVID-19 affected loans will aggregate 5% of total BID loans – more than we had initially anticipated. As a consequence, we are revising down our target P/B to 2x (from 2.2x) and roll over our valuation basis to 2021. As a result, we lower our 1-year target price by 3.6% to VND 43,650/share (from VND 45,300/share) which represents +13% upside potential. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation on the shares of BID.

VNM’s Q2 results were virtually less affected by Covid-19, as it posted a consolidated net sales and net profit of   VND 14.50 tn (+6.1% YoY) and VND 3.08 tn (+6.2% YoY), respectively, in line with its guidance. The recent acquisition of GTN (Moc Chau Milk), in our view, has achieved initial results with the recently implemented material cost re-negotiation and synergy in distribution network. From a valuation perspective, VNM shares appear relatively cheap to us on a regional basis - trading at a 30% real-time P/E discount while the company can still achieve (single digit) earnings growth. We reiterate our price target of VND 135,000 for the shares of VNM, which when coupled with a divided yield of 4%, implies a total return of 22% - and good enough for us to reiterate our Outperform rating.  

HT1 revenue in 2Q20 dropped by -14% YoY to VND 2.035 tn, due to poor market demand. However, PBT was flat compared to 2Q19 at VND 257 bn. Excluding net abnormal expenses of VND 14 bn for sponsorship activities, PBT would have actually improved by 4.5% YoY. The improved operating result  is attributed to the significant improvement in gross margin on the back of reduced energy costs, and a reduction in outsourced volume.  As 2Q20 PBT is in line with our estimate, we maintain our PBT forecast for 2020 of VND 950 bn (+2% YoY). In 2021, we expect HT1’s earnings to improve 11% to VND 1.052 tn, due to our anticipation of a recovery in market demand and a reduction in financial expenses. We upgrade the rating for the stock from OUTPERFORM to BUY, with a 1-year target price of VND 16,000/share based on a target PE and EV/EBITDA of 8x and 4.5x, respectively. The dividend yield of 9.3% payable in Dec is also  supportive to the shares.