Company Report

While IMP remains structurally well positioned in Vietnam’s pharmaceutical sector, the recent share price rally (+12% since our OP call) has largely priced in acquisition optimism, leaving risk-reward neutral amid near-term earnings pressure. We downgrade IMP to Market Perform while raise our 12-month target price to VND 56,000/share (from VND 55,000), implying limited upside of 3%.

Investment Thesis

•           Structurally strong, tactically constrained. IMP remains a best-in-class mid-cap pharma; however, near-term growth is constrained by soft OTC demand and elevated SG&A costs.

•           Valuation not attractive. At 23x 2026F P/E, IMP trades ~1 standard deviation above its 5-year average (17x) and above regional peers (20x), limiting re-rating potential without a clearer earnings inflection.

We maintain a constructive long-term view on GVR, supported by its unrivaled rubber land bank of 394,782 hectares across key southern provinces, including Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria–Vung Tau, and Tay Ninh. The planned conversion of more than 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations into industrial park (IP) land represents a transformational growth catalyst with meaningful long-term value creation potential.

However, following a 49.2% rally in GVR’s share price since our previous report, upside is now more limited. Using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, we derive a 12-month target price of VND 35,700 per share, implying a 15% downside from the current level. Accordingly, we revise our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM.

We rate OUTPERFORM with a 12-month TP of VND23,000/share, implying 22% upside. Our positive view is driven by resilient EU demand, margin recovery from product mix and automation, and valuation that remains below historical averages despite earnings momentum.

Investment thesis

•           EU growth a haven from tariff: European demand and expansion into new markets position TNG to outgrow other OEMs, while reducing US tariff exposure.

•           Margin improvement: Shift toward higher-margin products, automation, and productivity gains are lifting gross margin and lowering SG&A, supporting faster earnings growth than revenue.

•           Undemanding valuation: TNG trades at 6x 2026F P/E vs. its 5-year average of 8x, offering rerating upside as margins normalize and premium orders scale.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on FRT, with 12-month target price of VND 174,000/share. At the current price, FRT is trading at 26x 2026F P/E, representing a meaningful discount to its historical average of ~40x, despite a clear improvement in earnings quality and visibility.

Investment Thesis

•           ICT & Consumer Electronics recovery: A mobile phone replacement cycle, supported by fiscal stimulus measures (personal income tax cuts and higher personal and dependent allowances), is expected to drive a cyclical rebound in the ICT & CE segment.

•           Long Châu structural growth: Long Châu is a key beneficiary of stricter enforcement against counterfeit drugs and supplements, alongside the long-term transition from traditional mom-and-pop pharmacies to modern retail pharmacy chains.

•           Vaccine retail optionality: FRT is the only listed company operating vaccine retail outlets, offering long-term growth optionality given Vietnam’s currently low vaccine coverage rate.

Earnings uplift supported by internal capital generation: CTG remains the only listed SOCB without a private placement plan. Strong earnings growth should provide sufficient capital buffer to sustain CAR while supporting robust credit expansion.

Credit cost relief from improving asset quality: Gradual improvements in asset quality allow CTG to reduce provisions in the coming years. We expect pretax profit to reach VND 40 trillion (+26% YoY) in 2025 and VND 49.4 trillion (+23.5% YoY) in 2026.

Attractive relative valuation: For 2026, CTG trades at 1.32x P/B with ROE above 20%, offering compelling value compared with BID (1.38x P/B) and VCB (1.86x P/B), which generate ROE of 15.5%–16.5%.

High-growth franchise with multi-engine expansion. VPB delivered 29% credit growth YTD by the end of 3Q25, driven by aggressive lending to real estate and brokerage. We project credit growth to remain elevated in 2026 with strong momentum across the parent bank and subsidiaries.

Earnings upgrade backed by diversified income and improving asset quality. We revise 2025 PBT to VND 29.7 tn (+49% YoY) and 2026 PBT to VND 36.3 tn (+22% YoY), driven by lower credit cost (3% vs. 3.4% in 2025) and sustained fee income.

Strategic capital flexibility. As CAR declined to 13.6% (from 17% in 2023) amid rapid balance sheet expansion, we anticipate VPB will pursue capital raising options in 2026, potentially via follow-on issuance to strategic partners — a potential re-rating catalyst.

We downgrade VEA to Market Perform and reduce our 12 month target price to VND34,000/share (from VND43,300/share, adjusted for dividend). The revision reflects mounting regulatory headwinds and accelerating electrification, which are expected to weigh on Honda’s motorcycle volumes and margins despite resilient 2025 earnings. Our target price implies a P/E of 7.3x, one standard deviation below the five year average, underscoring reduced earnings visibility for 2026–27.

Investment Thesis

•           Solid near term earnings base: 9M25 NPAT rose 6% YoY, reaching 82% of our 2025 forecast. However, structural challenges—most notably the gasoline motorbike ban—warrant a more cautious medium term outlook.

•           Volume pressure: Honda’s guidance for a 200k unit cut, coupled with rapid expansion of e scooter brands (VinFast, Yadea), poses downside risk to VEAM’s historically stable associate income stream.

•           Dividend yield vs. earnings decline: While dividend yields could remain attractive (c.15% in 2026–27 if payouts are sustained), earnings are projected to contract by 14% in 2026, limiting upside potential.

We upgrade MBB to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) with a revised 12-month TP of VND 30,000, as we stay constructive on its long-term outlook supported by a robust deposit base, digital leadership, and payment edge, despite near-term asset quality headwinds from a handful of restructured exposures.

Investment thesis

•           Leading private-sector franchise with outsized growth potential. As Vietnam’s largest private bank by asset base, MBB is uniquely positioned to accelerate market share gains, particularly under the mandatory acquisition of MBV. We project credit growth of 30% in 2025 and 25% in 2026 — significantly outpacing sector averages.

•           Compelling growth-return dynamics. We forecast PBT to reach VND 32.1 tn in 2025 (+11.5% YoY) and VND 38.7 tn in 2026 (+20% YoY), supported by robust credit growth, improving fee income and writebacks. ROE is projected at 22% in 2026 — among the highest in the sector.

•           Structural advantages in a transitioning sector. MBB’s strong CASA base, leadership in digital banking and payments, and robust franchise across retail, SME & large corporate segments position the bank well to capture medium-term growth opportunities.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on POW with a 12-month target price of VND 14,500/share (implying a -5% downside). While Nhon Trach 3 officially came online in November, our view on the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 project remains cautious. Their weak first-year performance could significantly weigh on 2026 earnings, with NPATMI projected to plunge 79% YoY.

Investment thesis

•           Stable gas supply: Existing gas-fired plants should operate steadily through 2026, supported by a stable natural gas outlook.

•           Strategic importance: Despite near-term challenges, Nhon Trach 3 & 4 remains critical for Vietnam’s energy security by 2030 amid renewable expansion and difficulties in other LNG projects.

•           Coal supply advantage: Efforts to secure new coal sources could improve Vung Ang’s heat rate and input costs.

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG, with revised target price of VND 18,500/share ~ 10% upside based on a combined P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.

At the current market price, HSG is trading at FY 2026 P/E forward of 13x and P/B forward of 0.88x, which is lower than its normalized 5Y average P/E of 16x.

However, with challenging industry landscape and limited 2026F earnings growth prospects, we only recommend to buy on dip.

Investment thesis

•           HSG is the leading galvanized steel sheet and steel pipe producer in Vietnam with 22% market share.

•           Domestic galvanized steel market is positively supported in the long-term by AD on China and South Korea import as well as in the medium-term by government expansionary policy.

•           The company is expanding into construction material retail with its Hoa Sen Home chain (at 148 stores at end 2025 and 300 stores target in 2030)

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and raise our target price to VND178,000/share (13% upside potential), to reflect improving 2025E PVC costs and sustained sales volume growth. Our TP is based on an unchanged target PER of 11x now applied to our 2026E EPS (from average 2025-26E).

Investment thesis

•           Robust fundamentals: we project 2026E NPATMI to grow 9% YoY, underpinned by 11% YoY sales volume growth and stable ASP (-0.5% YoY).

•           Cost and operational advantage: PVC prices remain structurally soft due to weak Chinese manufacturing demand, with only a modest rebound expected (+1.5% YoY).

•           Attractive shareholder returns: consistent cash dividend yield averaging c.10% pa.

Industry-wise, structural consolidation has removed nearly 1.9mn tons/year of inefficient capacity in the North, while 3Q25 consumption surged 23.1% YoY on export front-loading. Imports fell 4.3% YoY, tightening supply-demand balance and supporting ASP recovery into late-2025.

Looking ahead, DHC’s disciplined procurement, lean cost base, and upcoming Giao Long 3 expansion – introducing Kraftliner and higher-value grades – position it well for structural earnings growth.

At VND 34,050 per share, DHC trades at 10.7x trailing P/E and 1.51x P/B, with a target price of VND 38,300 per share (12.6% upside). We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on respectable fundamentals and resilient profitability.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating with a 12-month target price of VND 37,000/share, implying a target P/B of 1.60x. The forward 2026F P/B of 1.25x presents a compelling entry point, particularly when combined with HDB’s ROE profile and strong medium-term earnings visibility. For context, banks under our coverage trade at an average 2026F P/B of 1.2x with an average ROE of 17%, whereas HDB is expected to deliver ROE of 24.5% in 2026, among the highest in the sector. While asset quality warrants scrutiny, we think that robust credit growth will provide a strong foundation for HDB to sustain profit growth and control its NPL ratio in 2026.

Earnings outlook: We project HDB’s pre-tax profit to reach VND 20.5 tn (+22.6% YoY) in 2025 and VND 24.5 tn (+19.6% YoY) in 2026.

Robust Q3 Performance: GVR delivered VND 9.29 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 2.18 trillion NPAT (+95% YoY), powered by higher rubber sales, improved JV contributions, and VND 131 billion in land compensation from rubber-to-industrial land conversion.

Industrial Parks Offset Rubber Headwinds: Despite a projected 5% YoY increase in rubber ASP, FY26 rubber revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY due to weather-related supply constraints. Meanwhile, industrial land leasing is set to surge 35% YoY to 95 ha, generating VND 1.3 trillion (+30% YoY), led by NTU3 and Bac Dong Phu Phase 2.

Land Conversion Unlocks Structural Growth: GVR is advancing approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, focusing on southern provinces. For 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion pre-tax profit, assuming 1,000 ha conversion in Dong Nai.

Investment View: With Vietnam’s largest rubber land bank and accelerating industrial park strategy, we value GVR at VND 35,700/share (27.5% upside) and maintain OUTPERFORM.

In 3Q 2025, PVD posted impressive results, with consolidated revenue up by 5% YoY and NPATMI up by 53% YoY and 16% QoQ, thanks to strong performance of both Drilling segment and Well services segment. Drilling profitability has recovered near last year’s peak level, with gross profit reaching VND 360 bn, +18% YoY and +28% QoQ. Key drivers include: higher day rate, higher utilization rate, contribution of new rig PVD VIII and higher USDVND exchange rate. Well services also benefit from more demand in domestic oil&gas campaigns, with revenue reaching VND 954 bn +67% YoY, while gross profit reaching VND 236 bn +95% YoY,

Slightly revise up 2025-2026 estimates to account for contribution of new rigs (PVD VIII and PVD IX) as well as higher terminal day rate to reflect a better long-term industry outlook. Specifically, we revise up 2025F revenue to VND 9.7 trillion +4.5% YoY (from VND 8.9 trillion) and NPATMI to VND 883 bn +27% YoY (from VND 805 bn). We also revise up 2026F revenue to VND 11.5 trillion +18.4% YoY (from 10.3 trillion) and NPATMI to VND 1.2 trillion +37% YoY (from VND 1.1 trillion).

Downgrade to MARKET PERFROM (from Outperform). We revise up 1Y target price for PVD to VND 27,400/share (~3% upside) from higher earnings estimates in 2025-2026 as well as higher terminal earnings estimates, but downgrade due to recent strong share performance. PVD remains our top pick for Oil&Gas sector in 2026, and we recommend accumulating the share on dip.