Company Report

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating but raise the 12-month target price to VND 14,500/share (from VND 12,800), implying a modest 2% upside. Our valuation horizon is rolled forward to 2026, with NPATMI estimate in that year largely unchanged. Despite projected challenges in 2026, we expect 4Q25 earnings to deliver positive growth.

2025-2026 outlook: We revise 2025 NPATMI upward by nearly 3x, reflecting the delayed earnings contribution from Nhon Trach 3 & 4 (now expected in 2026). For 2026, we forecast NPATMI to decline 79% YoY, despite a 12% YoY EBITDA increase, primarily due to the commencement of Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4 plants. Long-term view remains positive, as this marks Vietnam’s first LNG-fired power project.

PNJ is well-positioned to capitalize on Vietnam’s evolving gold market, supported by regulatory tailwinds. Retail sales growth remains tepid at 4.3% YoY in 3Q25, reflecting soft consumer demand amid elevated gold prices and limited supply. Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to rise through 2026, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. While this may dampen the overall jewelry demand, PNJ could gain market share by securing sufficient gold inventory.

The newly enacted Decree 232/2025/ND-CP allows private firms to produce gold bars and import gold materials, easing supply constraints. PNJ has met key eligibility criteria and is preparing its gold import quota application, due November 15^th. Approval (expected by December 15^th) would enable the company to leverage the new framework and support stronger sales.

Supported by improved retail and gold bar sales driven by expected gold import quota allocation, we forecast net income of PNJ to reach VND 2.68 tn in 2026 (+10% YoY), outperforming the 2% YoY growth forecast for 2025 (excluding one-off items in 2024). By rolling-forward our valuation from 2025F to 2026F, we increase 1Y target price to VND 109,000 per share (from VND 97,500). With a potential upside of 22%, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for PNJ. The company has returned to a positive earnings trajectory from 3Q25, and its 2026 P/E of 12.3x remains attractive compared to the historical average of 18x.

Vinamilk delivered a stronger-than-expected 3Q25 performance with revenue of VND16.97tn (+9.1% YoY) and NPAT of VND2.51tn (+4.5% YoY), marking its first earnings recovery after four quarters of decline. The company achieved 72% of its revenue and 68% of profit targets for 2025, supported by robust exports, improving domestic demand, and disciplined cost management. Modern trade and company-owned stores grew at double-digit rates, offsetting the weaker general-trade channel.

Exports outperformed, with international sales up 32.6% YoY (+25.7% FX-neutral) to VND3.46tn, led by Cambodia. Export contribution reached 20.4% of 9M25 revenue, up 240bps YoY. Gross margin expanded 60bps YoY to 41.8%, aided by lower input costs and better operating leverage.

Vinamilk recorded a one-off associate loss from the Miraka Holding write-off but continues to optimize its portfolio. While 4Q25 is expected to benefit from stable raw material prices and continued export strength, a full domestic recovery hinges on general trade normalization and post-typhoon demand recovery.

We maintain our 2025 forecast which calls for revenue of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), with a 2026E NPAT of VND9.5tn (+2.6%). We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating, with a DCF/PER-based 12-month TP of VND65,000/share (14% upside; 7.5% dividend yield).

Sabeco reported 3Q25 net sales of VND6.4tn (-16% YoY, -5% QoQ), marking the third consecutive quarter of volume contraction as weak consumer sentiment and intensified competition continued to weigh on demand. However, Sabeco’s gross profit reached VND2.39tn (+4.7% YoY) in 3Q25, supported by lower malt and rice costs, improved material efficiency, and favorable hedging under ThaiBev’s group procurement. Reported margins remain inflated by consolidation effects but indicate underlying cost discipline.

For 9M25, revenue reached VND19.1tn (-17% YoY) and NPAT VND3.36tn (flat YoY), completing 43% of revenue and 71% of profit targets for 2025. Despite near-term headwinds from post–price-hike softness and weather disruptions, management reaffirmed market leadership and accelerated distribution expansion, adding over 20,000 new general trade outlets through “Project Lightning Strike” and cash-van initiatives.

We fine-tune up our 2025E revenue by 3% to VND27.0tn (-15% YoY), and raise our NPAT by 7% to VND4.55tn (+1% YoY) on better cost control. For 2026, we project revenue of VND27.6tn (+2% YoY) and NPAT of VND4.6tn (+2% YoY), supported by gradual consumption recovery and lower input costs.

Our 12-month target price remains VND55,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 17x target P/E. At the current price of VND46,800, SAB trades at 14x 2026F P/E and offers a 9% dividend yield. With 18% upside potential to our TP, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with unchanged 12-month target price of VND 80,000/share (implying a 24% upside), as we do not revise overall 2026 earnings estimate significantly.

9M25 summary: Strong hydropower, new projects added into the investment pipeline

Earnings slightly exceeded our forecasts, due to provision reversal in solar power projects and slightly higher-than-expected occupancy level from the office buildings portfolio.

•           The hydropower performance was in line with our expectations, despite 3Q25 volume outperformance, placing a growth pressure for 2026.

•           REE obtained investment policy approval regarding V1-3 Phase 2 and V1-5 & V1-6 Phase 2 wind power projects (located in Vinh Long province), targeted to commence operation in 4Q26.

•           By end-3Q25, E.town 6 office building (E.town 6) achieved nearly 50% occupancy (vs. a modest level at end-2024).

•           As expected, M&E services witnessed a recovery (especially from 3Q25).

2025 earnings forecast: following 9M25 results, we increase NPATMI by 6%.

2026 outlook: We forecast revenue of VND 11.3 tn (+20% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+17% YoY).

Strong 3Q25 Performance. Net sales reached VND 482 billion (+38% YoY), driven by higher rubber output (+25% YoY), improved selling prices (+4.9% YoY), and a surge in rubber wood liquidation (+67% YoY). Net income soared to VND 154 billion (+153% YoY), the highest in three years.

 Robust 4Q25. 4Q25 net profit is projected at VND 206 billion (+160% YoY), fueled by land transfer revenue from Bac Dong Phu Industrial Park (317 ha at VND 1 bn/ha), offsetting a 15% YoY drop in rubber prices. For 2026, revenue and net profit are forecast to hit VND 1,445 billion (+25 % YoY), supported by an 8% increase in rubber volume and a 3% rise in prices.

Long-Term Growth Strategy. DPR benefits from converting rubber land into industrial parks, leveraging land scarcity for sustainable growth.

Investment view: DPR’s extensive land bank offers strong potential for industrial park conversion, especially as demand in Binh Phuoc rises amid high occupancy in nearby provinces. Upcoming infrastructure projects further enhance its outlook. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 46,100 target price (+18% upside).

IMP delivered a resilient 3Q25 with revenue up to VND 574bn (+5% YoY), driven by a 16% surge in hospital (ETC) sales, which offset weaker OTC demand (following early restocking and tax headwinds for small pharmacies). Gross margin improved to 39.6% as higher-value prescription drugs and lower API prices lifted profitability, while net income rose to VND 77bn (+6% YoY) despite higher SG&A and financing costs. Strategically, IMP is expanding its footprint and introducing 20 new SKUs, including a first generic product, supported by another IMP4 line coming online in 4Q25. We believe the market underestimates the sustainability of ETC-led growth and upcoming capacity leverage, providing medium-term upside. With 68% of revenue and 63% of profit targets achieved for 2025, IMP still needs a strong 4Q finish. We expect 2025 & 2026 NPAT to reach 379bn (+18% YoY) and 456bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The stock is trading at P/E ratio of 16.5x 2026F, lower compared to its 5-year historical average of 18x and average regional peers of 20x. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 55,000/share target price (12% upside).

HAH is well-positioned to capitalize on elevated feeder charter rates and a structural shortage of vessels. We forecast 2025E net revenue of VND 5,151bn (+29.0% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,154bn (+46.2% YoY), underpinned by sustained charter strength and expanded fleet capacity. For 2026, we project revenue of VND 5,440bn (+5.6% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,347bn (+16.7% YoY), with margins moderating as feeder rates normalize but remain above historical averages.

Based on our adjusted DCF model, we initiate with an OUTPERFORM rating and a one-year target price of VND 63,800/share, implying 17.1% upside.

Both the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index and the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index have announced the results of their quarterly index review for 3Q25. The changes will be implemented on Friday, September 19, 2025, and will take effect from Monday, September 22, 2025.

The Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF has not yet confirmed the effective date of its new benchmark. The transition will occur within the window between July 17, 2025, and October 16, 2025

We maintain a constructive outlook on DBD, supported by its scalable, affordable product portfolio versus imported drugs and robust growth in the ETC market. In the medium to long term, new production facilities should secure future capacity, broaden the portfolio, and deliver material tax benefits (four years tax-free, followed by a 50% reduction for nine years). Notably, DBD remains among the few credible Vietnamese pharma players without a foreign strategic partner, an area management has expressed strong interest in pursuing.

We leave FY25–26 earnings forecasts unchanged (2025 NPAT: VND331bn, +16% YoY; 2026 NPAT: VND348bn, +9% YoY). Rolling valuations forward to 2026, we raise our target price to VND62,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 12x target EV/EBITDA multiple (vs. regional peer M&A multiples of 13x). With 16.3% implied upside, we upgrade DBD to Outperform.

The upcoming rebalancing cycle for offshore Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) with Vietnam exposure is scheduled for this month. The VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF, which tracks the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index, is expected to implement its quarterly rebalancing changes on September 19.

Separately, the Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF has announced a benchmark transition, shifting from the FTSE Vietnam Index to the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index. In line with this change, the fund will be renamed the Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF.

The effective date of the new benchmark will fall within the transition window starting July 17, 2025, and no later than October 16, 2025. During this transition period, the index switch is considered pending, and a formal notification will be issued once the process is finalized.

The launch of The Gladia project is expected to be a key growth catalyst for Khang Dien in 2025–26, underpinning both sales value and earnings momentum. However, following the recent share price rally, much of this growth outlook has already been priced in. We therefore downgrade our rating from BUY to Market Perform, with a revised target price of VND 36,500 per share.

FY25–26 Outlook

Sales value is projected to reach VND 5,609bn (+9% YoY) in FY25 and VND 6,844bn (+22% YoY) in FY26, primarily supported by The Gladia.

Revenue is forecast at VND 5,442bn (+66% YoY) in FY25 and VND 5,982bn (+10% YoY) in FY26.

Net profit after tax and minority interests (NPAT-MI) is expected at VND 873bn (+8% YoY) in FY25 and VND 937bn (+7% YoY) in FY26, driven by contributions from The Privia and The Gladia.

Short-Term Outlook

Presales should improve in 2H25 following a stagnant 2024 and 1H25, with The Gladia launch scheduled for September. We expect earnings to grow 18% YoY in 2H25, supported by initial handovers at the project.

Long-Term Outlook

We maintain a constructive long-term view on Khang Dien, supported by its strong reputation as a developer, sizeable land bank in Ho Chi Minh City, proven project execution capabilities, and clear legal framework for its projects.

Following a stronger-than-anticipated performance in 2Q25, we have revised our 2025 net income forecast upward to VND 5.83 tn (+56% YoY, from VND 5.56 tn).

Looking ahead, we introduce our 2026 net income projection at VND 6.88 tn, marking an 18% YoY growth. This forecast is underpinned by:

• Moderate earnings growth in the ICT & Consumer Electronics (CE) segment, supported by the ongoing mobile phone replacement cycle and improved demand on 2% VAT deduction (from July 2025)
• Strong earnings momentum from the grocery segment on aggressive store network expansion and ongoing improved profitability of existing stores

We anticipate the grocery chain will play a pivotal role in driving MWG’s expansion, while ICT & CE will deliver steady but limited growth due to currently high penetration of modern trade (~80%).

MWG’s share price has increased by 21% over the past 4 months. We have rolled forward our valuation to 2026F (previously based on 2025F), resulting in a new SOTP-based target price of VND 87,000 per share (from VND 74,000). As such, we continue to reiterate our BUY recommendation, supported by a compelling 18.2% upside potential from the current market price.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 69,400/share (from VND 71,300/share), implying a 8% upside. The adjustment reflects an 11% downward revision to our 2025 NPATMI forecast, following weaker-than-expected 1H25 results.

1H25 performance: Strong hydropower, weak real estate and M&E

Earnings slightly missed our projections, as:

•           House sales at Light Square project showed little progress

•           Multiple M&E contracts delayed revenue recognition, as they remain under construction

•           Office leasing segment incurred higher-than-expected maintenance costs.

Hydropower recovery was the main driver of 48% YoY NPATMI growth, supported by favorable weather condition YoY, as 1H24 earnings was depressed by El Niño weather pattern.

2025 outlook: Softer 2H earnings ahead

•           We forecast NPATMI of VND 2.4 tn (+18% YoY).

•           This implies flat to slightly negative YoY growth in 2H25, as hydropower plants typically conserve water in the fourth quarter to ensure sufficient water availability for power generation in the following year.

2026 outlook:

•           We project revenue of VND 11.0 tn (+15% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+23% YoY),

•           Key drivers:

• Stronger M&E services revenue contribution
• Further revenue recognition from Light Square project
• Rising occupancy at E.town 6 office building
• Ongoing favorable hydrological conditions