Company Report

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on POW with a 12-month target price of VND 14,500/share (implying a -5% downside). While Nhon Trach 3 officially came online in November, our view on the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 project remains cautious. Their weak first-year performance could significantly weigh on 2026 earnings, with NPATMI projected to plunge 79% YoY.

Investment thesis

•           Stable gas supply: Existing gas-fired plants should operate steadily through 2026, supported by a stable natural gas outlook.

•           Strategic importance: Despite near-term challenges, Nhon Trach 3 & 4 remains critical for Vietnam’s energy security by 2030 amid renewable expansion and difficulties in other LNG projects.

•           Coal supply advantage: Efforts to secure new coal sources could improve Vung Ang’s heat rate and input costs.

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG, with revised target price of VND 18,500/share ~ 10% upside based on a combined P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.

At the current market price, HSG is trading at FY 2026 P/E forward of 13x and P/B forward of 0.88x, which is lower than its normalized 5Y average P/E of 16x.

However, with challenging industry landscape and limited 2026F earnings growth prospects, we only recommend to buy on dip.

Investment thesis

•           HSG is the leading galvanized steel sheet and steel pipe producer in Vietnam with 22% market share.

•           Domestic galvanized steel market is positively supported in the long-term by AD on China and South Korea import as well as in the medium-term by government expansionary policy.

•           The company is expanding into construction material retail with its Hoa Sen Home chain (at 148 stores at end 2025 and 300 stores target in 2030)

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and raise our target price to VND178,000/share (13% upside potential), to reflect improving 2025E PVC costs and sustained sales volume growth. Our TP is based on an unchanged target PER of 11x now applied to our 2026E EPS (from average 2025-26E).

Investment thesis

•           Robust fundamentals: we project 2026E NPATMI to grow 9% YoY, underpinned by 11% YoY sales volume growth and stable ASP (-0.5% YoY).

•           Cost and operational advantage: PVC prices remain structurally soft due to weak Chinese manufacturing demand, with only a modest rebound expected (+1.5% YoY).

•           Attractive shareholder returns: consistent cash dividend yield averaging c.10% pa.

Industry-wise, structural consolidation has removed nearly 1.9mn tons/year of inefficient capacity in the North, while 3Q25 consumption surged 23.1% YoY on export front-loading. Imports fell 4.3% YoY, tightening supply-demand balance and supporting ASP recovery into late-2025.

Looking ahead, DHC’s disciplined procurement, lean cost base, and upcoming Giao Long 3 expansion – introducing Kraftliner and higher-value grades – position it well for structural earnings growth.

At VND 34,050 per share, DHC trades at 10.7x trailing P/E and 1.51x P/B, with a target price of VND 38,300 per share (12.6% upside). We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on respectable fundamentals and resilient profitability.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating with a 12-month target price of VND 37,000/share, implying a target P/B of 1.60x. The forward 2026F P/B of 1.25x presents a compelling entry point, particularly when combined with HDB’s ROE profile and strong medium-term earnings visibility. For context, banks under our coverage trade at an average 2026F P/B of 1.2x with an average ROE of 17%, whereas HDB is expected to deliver ROE of 24.5% in 2026, among the highest in the sector. While asset quality warrants scrutiny, we think that robust credit growth will provide a strong foundation for HDB to sustain profit growth and control its NPL ratio in 2026.

Earnings outlook: We project HDB’s pre-tax profit to reach VND 20.5 tn (+22.6% YoY) in 2025 and VND 24.5 tn (+19.6% YoY) in 2026.

Robust Q3 Performance: GVR delivered VND 9.29 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 2.18 trillion NPAT (+95% YoY), powered by higher rubber sales, improved JV contributions, and VND 131 billion in land compensation from rubber-to-industrial land conversion.

Industrial Parks Offset Rubber Headwinds: Despite a projected 5% YoY increase in rubber ASP, FY26 rubber revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY due to weather-related supply constraints. Meanwhile, industrial land leasing is set to surge 35% YoY to 95 ha, generating VND 1.3 trillion (+30% YoY), led by NTU3 and Bac Dong Phu Phase 2.

Land Conversion Unlocks Structural Growth: GVR is advancing approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, focusing on southern provinces. For 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion pre-tax profit, assuming 1,000 ha conversion in Dong Nai.

Investment View: With Vietnam’s largest rubber land bank and accelerating industrial park strategy, we value GVR at VND 35,700/share (27.5% upside) and maintain OUTPERFORM.

In 3Q 2025, PVD posted impressive results, with consolidated revenue up by 5% YoY and NPATMI up by 53% YoY and 16% QoQ, thanks to strong performance of both Drilling segment and Well services segment. Drilling profitability has recovered near last year’s peak level, with gross profit reaching VND 360 bn, +18% YoY and +28% QoQ. Key drivers include: higher day rate, higher utilization rate, contribution of new rig PVD VIII and higher USDVND exchange rate. Well services also benefit from more demand in domestic oil&gas campaigns, with revenue reaching VND 954 bn +67% YoY, while gross profit reaching VND 236 bn +95% YoY,

Slightly revise up 2025-2026 estimates to account for contribution of new rigs (PVD VIII and PVD IX) as well as higher terminal day rate to reflect a better long-term industry outlook. Specifically, we revise up 2025F revenue to VND 9.7 trillion +4.5% YoY (from VND 8.9 trillion) and NPATMI to VND 883 bn +27% YoY (from VND 805 bn). We also revise up 2026F revenue to VND 11.5 trillion +18.4% YoY (from 10.3 trillion) and NPATMI to VND 1.2 trillion +37% YoY (from VND 1.1 trillion).

Downgrade to MARKET PERFROM (from Outperform). We revise up 1Y target price for PVD to VND 27,400/share (~3% upside) from higher earnings estimates in 2025-2026 as well as higher terminal earnings estimates, but downgrade due to recent strong share performance. PVD remains our top pick for Oil&Gas sector in 2026, and we recommend accumulating the share on dip.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating but raise the 12-month target price to VND 14,500/share (from VND 12,800), implying a modest 2% upside. Our valuation horizon is rolled forward to 2026, with NPATMI estimate in that year largely unchanged. Despite projected challenges in 2026, we expect 4Q25 earnings to deliver positive growth.

2025-2026 outlook: We revise 2025 NPATMI upward by nearly 3x, reflecting the delayed earnings contribution from Nhon Trach 3 & 4 (now expected in 2026). For 2026, we forecast NPATMI to decline 79% YoY, despite a 12% YoY EBITDA increase, primarily due to the commencement of Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4 plants. Long-term view remains positive, as this marks Vietnam’s first LNG-fired power project.

PNJ is well-positioned to capitalize on Vietnam’s evolving gold market, supported by regulatory tailwinds. Retail sales growth remains tepid at 4.3% YoY in 3Q25, reflecting soft consumer demand amid elevated gold prices and limited supply. Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to rise through 2026, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. While this may dampen the overall jewelry demand, PNJ could gain market share by securing sufficient gold inventory.

The newly enacted Decree 232/2025/ND-CP allows private firms to produce gold bars and import gold materials, easing supply constraints. PNJ has met key eligibility criteria and is preparing its gold import quota application, due November 15^th. Approval (expected by December 15^th) would enable the company to leverage the new framework and support stronger sales.

Supported by improved retail and gold bar sales driven by expected gold import quota allocation, we forecast net income of PNJ to reach VND 2.68 tn in 2026 (+10% YoY), outperforming the 2% YoY growth forecast for 2025 (excluding one-off items in 2024). By rolling-forward our valuation from 2025F to 2026F, we increase 1Y target price to VND 109,000 per share (from VND 97,500). With a potential upside of 22%, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for PNJ. The company has returned to a positive earnings trajectory from 3Q25, and its 2026 P/E of 12.3x remains attractive compared to the historical average of 18x.

Vinamilk delivered a stronger-than-expected 3Q25 performance with revenue of VND16.97tn (+9.1% YoY) and NPAT of VND2.51tn (+4.5% YoY), marking its first earnings recovery after four quarters of decline. The company achieved 72% of its revenue and 68% of profit targets for 2025, supported by robust exports, improving domestic demand, and disciplined cost management. Modern trade and company-owned stores grew at double-digit rates, offsetting the weaker general-trade channel.

Exports outperformed, with international sales up 32.6% YoY (+25.7% FX-neutral) to VND3.46tn, led by Cambodia. Export contribution reached 20.4% of 9M25 revenue, up 240bps YoY. Gross margin expanded 60bps YoY to 41.8%, aided by lower input costs and better operating leverage.

Vinamilk recorded a one-off associate loss from the Miraka Holding write-off but continues to optimize its portfolio. While 4Q25 is expected to benefit from stable raw material prices and continued export strength, a full domestic recovery hinges on general trade normalization and post-typhoon demand recovery.

We maintain our 2025 forecast which calls for revenue of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), with a 2026E NPAT of VND9.5tn (+2.6%). We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating, with a DCF/PER-based 12-month TP of VND65,000/share (14% upside; 7.5% dividend yield).

Sabeco reported 3Q25 net sales of VND6.4tn (-16% YoY, -5% QoQ), marking the third consecutive quarter of volume contraction as weak consumer sentiment and intensified competition continued to weigh on demand. However, Sabeco’s gross profit reached VND2.39tn (+4.7% YoY) in 3Q25, supported by lower malt and rice costs, improved material efficiency, and favorable hedging under ThaiBev’s group procurement. Reported margins remain inflated by consolidation effects but indicate underlying cost discipline.

For 9M25, revenue reached VND19.1tn (-17% YoY) and NPAT VND3.36tn (flat YoY), completing 43% of revenue and 71% of profit targets for 2025. Despite near-term headwinds from post–price-hike softness and weather disruptions, management reaffirmed market leadership and accelerated distribution expansion, adding over 20,000 new general trade outlets through “Project Lightning Strike” and cash-van initiatives.

We fine-tune up our 2025E revenue by 3% to VND27.0tn (-15% YoY), and raise our NPAT by 7% to VND4.55tn (+1% YoY) on better cost control. For 2026, we project revenue of VND27.6tn (+2% YoY) and NPAT of VND4.6tn (+2% YoY), supported by gradual consumption recovery and lower input costs.

Our 12-month target price remains VND55,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 17x target P/E. At the current price of VND46,800, SAB trades at 14x 2026F P/E and offers a 9% dividend yield. With 18% upside potential to our TP, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with unchanged 12-month target price of VND 80,000/share (implying a 24% upside), as we do not revise overall 2026 earnings estimate significantly.

9M25 summary: Strong hydropower, new projects added into the investment pipeline

Earnings slightly exceeded our forecasts, due to provision reversal in solar power projects and slightly higher-than-expected occupancy level from the office buildings portfolio.

•           The hydropower performance was in line with our expectations, despite 3Q25 volume outperformance, placing a growth pressure for 2026.

•           REE obtained investment policy approval regarding V1-3 Phase 2 and V1-5 & V1-6 Phase 2 wind power projects (located in Vinh Long province), targeted to commence operation in 4Q26.

•           By end-3Q25, E.town 6 office building (E.town 6) achieved nearly 50% occupancy (vs. a modest level at end-2024).

•           As expected, M&E services witnessed a recovery (especially from 3Q25).

2025 earnings forecast: following 9M25 results, we increase NPATMI by 6%.

2026 outlook: We forecast revenue of VND 11.3 tn (+20% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+17% YoY).

Strong 3Q25 Performance. Net sales reached VND 482 billion (+38% YoY), driven by higher rubber output (+25% YoY), improved selling prices (+4.9% YoY), and a surge in rubber wood liquidation (+67% YoY). Net income soared to VND 154 billion (+153% YoY), the highest in three years.

 Robust 4Q25. 4Q25 net profit is projected at VND 206 billion (+160% YoY), fueled by land transfer revenue from Bac Dong Phu Industrial Park (317 ha at VND 1 bn/ha), offsetting a 15% YoY drop in rubber prices. For 2026, revenue and net profit are forecast to hit VND 1,445 billion (+25 % YoY), supported by an 8% increase in rubber volume and a 3% rise in prices.

Long-Term Growth Strategy. DPR benefits from converting rubber land into industrial parks, leveraging land scarcity for sustainable growth.

Investment view: DPR’s extensive land bank offers strong potential for industrial park conversion, especially as demand in Binh Phuoc rises amid high occupancy in nearby provinces. Upcoming infrastructure projects further enhance its outlook. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 46,100 target price (+18% upside).

IMP delivered a resilient 3Q25 with revenue up to VND 574bn (+5% YoY), driven by a 16% surge in hospital (ETC) sales, which offset weaker OTC demand (following early restocking and tax headwinds for small pharmacies). Gross margin improved to 39.6% as higher-value prescription drugs and lower API prices lifted profitability, while net income rose to VND 77bn (+6% YoY) despite higher SG&A and financing costs. Strategically, IMP is expanding its footprint and introducing 20 new SKUs, including a first generic product, supported by another IMP4 line coming online in 4Q25. We believe the market underestimates the sustainability of ETC-led growth and upcoming capacity leverage, providing medium-term upside. With 68% of revenue and 63% of profit targets achieved for 2025, IMP still needs a strong 4Q finish. We expect 2025 & 2026 NPAT to reach 379bn (+18% YoY) and 456bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The stock is trading at P/E ratio of 16.5x 2026F, lower compared to its 5-year historical average of 18x and average regional peers of 20x. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 55,000/share target price (12% upside).

HAH is well-positioned to capitalize on elevated feeder charter rates and a structural shortage of vessels. We forecast 2025E net revenue of VND 5,151bn (+29.0% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,154bn (+46.2% YoY), underpinned by sustained charter strength and expanded fleet capacity. For 2026, we project revenue of VND 5,440bn (+5.6% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,347bn (+16.7% YoY), with margins moderating as feeder rates normalize but remain above historical averages.

Based on our adjusted DCF model, we initiate with an OUTPERFORM rating and a one-year target price of VND 63,800/share, implying 17.1% upside.