Company Report

Both the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index and the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index have announced the results of their quarterly index review for 3Q25. The changes will be implemented on Friday, September 19, 2025, and will take effect from Monday, September 22, 2025.

The Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF has not yet confirmed the effective date of its new benchmark. The transition will occur within the window between July 17, 2025, and October 16, 2025

We maintain a constructive outlook on DBD, supported by its scalable, affordable product portfolio versus imported drugs and robust growth in the ETC market. In the medium to long term, new production facilities should secure future capacity, broaden the portfolio, and deliver material tax benefits (four years tax-free, followed by a 50% reduction for nine years). Notably, DBD remains among the few credible Vietnamese pharma players without a foreign strategic partner, an area management has expressed strong interest in pursuing.

We leave FY25–26 earnings forecasts unchanged (2025 NPAT: VND331bn, +16% YoY; 2026 NPAT: VND348bn, +9% YoY). Rolling valuations forward to 2026, we raise our target price to VND62,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 12x target EV/EBITDA multiple (vs. regional peer M&A multiples of 13x). With 16.3% implied upside, we upgrade DBD to Outperform.

The upcoming rebalancing cycle for offshore Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) with Vietnam exposure is scheduled for this month. The VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF, which tracks the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index, is expected to implement its quarterly rebalancing changes on September 19.

Separately, the Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF has announced a benchmark transition, shifting from the FTSE Vietnam Index to the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index. In line with this change, the fund will be renamed the Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF.

The effective date of the new benchmark will fall within the transition window starting July 17, 2025, and no later than October 16, 2025. During this transition period, the index switch is considered pending, and a formal notification will be issued once the process is finalized.

The launch of The Gladia project is expected to be a key growth catalyst for Khang Dien in 2025–26, underpinning both sales value and earnings momentum. However, following the recent share price rally, much of this growth outlook has already been priced in. We therefore downgrade our rating from BUY to Market Perform, with a revised target price of VND 36,500 per share.

FY25–26 Outlook

Sales value is projected to reach VND 5,609bn (+9% YoY) in FY25 and VND 6,844bn (+22% YoY) in FY26, primarily supported by The Gladia.

Revenue is forecast at VND 5,442bn (+66% YoY) in FY25 and VND 5,982bn (+10% YoY) in FY26.

Net profit after tax and minority interests (NPAT-MI) is expected at VND 873bn (+8% YoY) in FY25 and VND 937bn (+7% YoY) in FY26, driven by contributions from The Privia and The Gladia.

Short-Term Outlook

Presales should improve in 2H25 following a stagnant 2024 and 1H25, with The Gladia launch scheduled for September. We expect earnings to grow 18% YoY in 2H25, supported by initial handovers at the project.

Long-Term Outlook

We maintain a constructive long-term view on Khang Dien, supported by its strong reputation as a developer, sizeable land bank in Ho Chi Minh City, proven project execution capabilities, and clear legal framework for its projects.

Following a stronger-than-anticipated performance in 2Q25, we have revised our 2025 net income forecast upward to VND 5.83 tn (+56% YoY, from VND 5.56 tn).

Looking ahead, we introduce our 2026 net income projection at VND 6.88 tn, marking an 18% YoY growth. This forecast is underpinned by:

• Moderate earnings growth in the ICT & Consumer Electronics (CE) segment, supported by the ongoing mobile phone replacement cycle and improved demand on 2% VAT deduction (from July 2025)
• Strong earnings momentum from the grocery segment on aggressive store network expansion and ongoing improved profitability of existing stores

We anticipate the grocery chain will play a pivotal role in driving MWG’s expansion, while ICT & CE will deliver steady but limited growth due to currently high penetration of modern trade (~80%).

MWG’s share price has increased by 21% over the past 4 months. We have rolled forward our valuation to 2026F (previously based on 2025F), resulting in a new SOTP-based target price of VND 87,000 per share (from VND 74,000). As such, we continue to reiterate our BUY recommendation, supported by a compelling 18.2% upside potential from the current market price.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 69,400/share (from VND 71,300/share), implying a 8% upside. The adjustment reflects an 11% downward revision to our 2025 NPATMI forecast, following weaker-than-expected 1H25 results.

1H25 performance: Strong hydropower, weak real estate and M&E

Earnings slightly missed our projections, as:

•           House sales at Light Square project showed little progress

•           Multiple M&E contracts delayed revenue recognition, as they remain under construction

•           Office leasing segment incurred higher-than-expected maintenance costs.

Hydropower recovery was the main driver of 48% YoY NPATMI growth, supported by favorable weather condition YoY, as 1H24 earnings was depressed by El Niño weather pattern.

2025 outlook: Softer 2H earnings ahead

•           We forecast NPATMI of VND 2.4 tn (+18% YoY).

•           This implies flat to slightly negative YoY growth in 2H25, as hydropower plants typically conserve water in the fourth quarter to ensure sufficient water availability for power generation in the following year.

2026 outlook:

•           We project revenue of VND 11.0 tn (+15% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+23% YoY),

•           Key drivers:

• Stronger M&E services revenue contribution
• Further revenue recognition from Light Square project
• Rising occupancy at E.town 6 office building
• Ongoing favorable hydrological conditions

Earnings update: BMP delivered solid 2Q25 results with revenue of VND1,308bn (+13.4% YoY) and NPAT of VND330bn (+17.7% YoY). Margins held firm, with GPM at 46.7% and OPM at 31.5%, reflecting stable input costs and pricing discipline. Revenue softened slightly from 1Q25, but profitability improved. Cumulatively, 1H25 revenue reached VND2,691bn (+24.8% YoY) with NPAT of VND617bn (+31.2% YoY).

Operations update: Management remains focused on efficiency rather than expansion, with product-mix adjustments and selective investments aimed at sustaining cash flow. The new CEO is gradually pushing for product innovation and distribution upgrades, though these will likely take time to filter into earnings.

Industry and market outlook: PVC resin prices have inched up since May 2025 but are expected to remain stable through 3Q25, while volatility from crude oil and tariffs bears watching. Chinese demand has shown modest improvement but is unlikely to lift global prices materially. In Vietnam, real estate activity is beginning to stabilize, with early signs of project restarts and supportive housing policy, which should benefit medium-term construction demand.

Investment thesis and forecast: We forecast 2025E net revenue at VND5,490bn (+19.0% YoY) and NPAT at VND1,181bn (+19.2% YoY), implying a net margin of 21.5%. For2026E, we expect net revenue of VND5,650bn (+2.9% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,144bn (-3.2% YoY), with net margins normalizing slightly at 20.2%. The company remains positioned to defend profitability while sustaining healthy dividends.

We reiterate OUTPERFORM on Gemadept with a revised target price of VND 75,000/share (from VND 58,800/share). The upgrade reflects stronger 2025F–2026F earnings forecasts and reduced tariff risks, supporting a re-rating case. Near-term catalysts include: (i) potential tariff hikes at deep-sea ports, (ii) favorable U.S. treatment of transshipment cargo, (iii) rubber plantation divestment progress, and (iv) project milestones such as Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3’s earlier launch and legal clearance for Gemalink Phase 2A.

2Q25 Results: Gemadept delivered strong results, with revenue up 30% YoY/17% QoQ and pretax profit rising ~YoY/16% QoQ to VND 677bn, broadly in line with our expectations. Growth was supported by exporters frontloading shipments to the U.S. ahead of Liberation Day tariff implementation.

Key Discussion Highlights

•           Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 (NDV3): Construction has been accelerated, with operations now targeted for Oct 2025 (vs. Jan 2026 initially).

•           Rubber Plantation Divestment: Negotiations with potential buyers are ongoing, with the deal expected to be finalized soon.

•           Deep-Sea Port Tariff Hike: A tariff increase of around 10% could be implemented as early as 3Q25, with Gemalink among the key beneficiaries.

•           5-Year Strategic Plan: Management is preparing a roadmap for 2026–2030, targeting earnings CAGR at least in line with the 2021–2025 period. The plan will be presented for shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM.

VNM delivered a mixed set of 2Q25 results. Revenue recovered 29% QoQ (flat YoY), thanks to a rebound in domestic sales after restructuring, while international business stayed subdued against a high base. Management highlighted that distribution channels are now fully restored and operating more efficiently than before.

Gross margin improved QoQ to 42% but remained slightly below last year, reflecting the impact of elevated material prices (despite the 2.5% ASP hike). Net profit fell 7.7% YoY, missing our forecast by 6%, with net margin slipping to 15%. At the half-year mark, only 46% of revenue and 42% of profit targets have been achieved, underscoring the need for strong 2H execution to meet guidance.

We are near-term cautious due to the weak 1H25 performance, margin compression, and a still-fragile GT channel (tax reforms impacting small household businesses). From 2026, we expect stronger growth driven by new category ramp-up and a recovery in consumer confidence, underpinned by higher GDP growth. We maintain our 2025 earnings forecast of VND 9.3tn (-2% YoY) but revise our 2026 earnings forecast upward to VND 9.5tn (+2.4% YoY). We downgrade our rating to MARKET PERFORM (from Outperform), given only 7% potential upside to our TP of VND 65,000/share.

We revise our recommendation on HDG from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM, reflecting recent share price appreciation. However, we raise our 12-month target price to VND 33,000/share (from VND 29,800), implying 4% upside. The higher target price is underpinned by a 20–30% increase in our NPAT forecasts for 2025–2027, following updated assumptions for the Hado Charm Villas project and inclusion of estimates related to La Trong hydropower project.

Strategic updates

•           HDG launched the third sales phase of Hado Charm Villas, reinforcing the visibility on earnings growth potential for 2025–2027.

•           The company expanded its hydropower portfolio with the acquisition of the La Trong project, enhancing the long-term growth and stable outlook of the electricity segment.

Outlook

•           2025: We forecast NPAT of VND 1.1 tn (+152% YoY), supported by hydropower recovery and initial revenue recognition from Hado Charm Villas Phase 3.

•           2026: We project revenue of VND 3.7 tn (+20% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1.7 tn (+51% YoY), driven by subsequent Hado Charm Villas sales launches and continued favorable hydrology conditions.

In 3Q FY 2025, HSG reported consolidated revenue of VND 9.5 trillion, strongly improving by 12.5% QoQ, even though YoY comparison shows a decline of 12.3%, due to lower export volume from antidumping duties in key export markets. NPATMI in 2Q FY 2025 reached VND 274 bn, flat YoY and +173% QoQ, thanks to solid ASP trend and lower input price.

Margin improvement is also a notable point for HSG this quarter, with gross margin reached 12.8%, meaning a 0.5 percentage point improvement compared to 3Q FY 2024 and 2 percentage point higher than 2024 gross margin. Key drivers: higher ASP, lower input cost.

We revise up our 2025-2026 estimates. Specifically, we expect 2025F NPAT to improve to VND 750 bn (from VND 701 bn), +47% YoY. 2026F NPAT is also revised to VND 834 bn +11% YoY (from VND 782 bn). This means that 4Q FY 2025 NPAT is estimated at VND 103 bn, turning around from a loss of VND 181 bn in 4Q FY2024).

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM. We revise 2026 target of HSG to VND 21,600/share based on a combination of P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. Recommend to buy on dip for trading opportunities.

Short-term catalyst: Official announcement of AD19.

Sabeco’s 1H25 results showed a 17% YoY decline in net sales, though management explained like-for-like sales fell only 5%. External challenges included weak consumption, tax-driven disruption in traditional trade, and administrative restructuring across provinces. Despite top-line pressure, 2Q25 margins improved meaningfully - gross margin and operating margin rose by 380bps and 570bps, respectively, driven by production efficiency and SG&A discipline. Inventory levels were lower, reflecting a cautious procurement stance amid input cost risks. While rising aluminum costs and FX volatility remain key concerns, lower malted barley prices, 3-5% ASP increases, and SG&A cost control provide optimism for 2H25.

We revise down our 2025E revenue by 7% to reflect the consolidation effect of Sabibeco but maintain our earnings forecast. Our 2025E forecasts assume drops of 18% and 5% YoY in revenue and net profit, respectively. For 2026E, we forecast 3% YoY growth in both metrics. We revise our DCF/PER-based 12-month TP to VND55,000/share (from VND58,000), which offers 15% potential upside. As such, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for the shares.

VHC delivered strong 2Q25 results, with net profit surging 54% YoY (+147% QoQ) to VND 523bn, despite stable revenue of VND 3.19tn. Gross margin expanded to 19.5% (from 15.0% in 2Q24), driven by lower feed ingredient costs (corn, soybean meal...), normalized raw fish and fingerling prices (fingerlings -35% YTD), and a reversal of COGS provisions. Net profit margin improved to 16.4% (from 10.6% in 2Q24) thanks to reduced freight rates and favorable FX movements. Pangasius exports increased by 4% YoY and 32% QoQ, led by stronger shipments to the US (+10% YoY) and EU (+8% YoY), which more than offset weaker demand from China. Overall, The US market remains resilient despite 10% tariff hikes during Q2, with pangasius maintaining cost competitiveness versus other white fish. Low domestic catfish inventories can further support US import demand.

We raise FY25-26 forecasts to reflect stronger margins and a more supportive demand outlook. FY25, net sales projected at VND 13.5tn (+7.7% YoY), net profit at VND 1.45tn (+11.0% YoY), driven by gross margin expansion and favorable FX conditions. FY26, net sales forecast at VND 14.9tn (+10.3% YoY), net profit at VND 1.58tn (+9.3% YoY).

At VND 62,300/share, VHC trades near its two-year average P/E of 9.6x. Our blended DCF and P/E valuation implies a 12-month target price of VND 70,000/share (11x forward P/E), representing 12% upside. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating, underpinned by margin tailwinds, and strong positioning in US  market.

Upcoming Listing & Valuation

F88 is set to list 8.26 million shares on UPCoM on August 8, 2025, with a reference price of VND 634,900 per share. This pricing implies a market capitalization of approximately VND 5.2 trillion (USD 200 million), corresponding to a 2Q25 price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.7x and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.3x. The company’s profitability remains compelling, with a return on assets (ROA) of 9.6% and return on equity (ROE) of 27.5%.

Business Model & Growth Trajectory

Founded in 2013, F88 operates a scalable, collateral-backed lending model focused on financially underserved customer segments. The company leverages both physical distribution—via a nationwide network of 888 stores—and digital engagement through its proprietary platforms. F88 has delivered exceptional growth, with both loan book and revenue registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 77–79% between 2019 and 2025. Its core offerings include:

* Direct secured lending, primarily against motorbikes and automobiles; and

* Loan origination and servicing for CIMB Bank, underpinned by a buyback clause on non-performing loans.

Financial Performance & Outlook

In the first half of 2025, F88’s pre-tax profit surged 213% year-on-year to VND 321 billion, reaching 48% of its full-year target. For the full year, the company projects:

* 43% growth in loan portfolio

* 50% growth in pre-tax profit

Growth will be driven by network expansion, increased adoption of the MyF88 mobile application, and broader cross-selling of insurance and financial products across its customer base.