Company Report

Upcoming Listing & Valuation

F88 is set to list 8.26 million shares on UPCoM on August 8, 2025, with a reference price of VND 634,900 per share. This pricing implies a market capitalization of approximately VND 5.2 trillion (USD 200 million), corresponding to a 2Q25 price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.7x and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.3x. The company’s profitability remains compelling, with a return on assets (ROA) of 9.6% and return on equity (ROE) of 27.5%.

Business Model & Growth Trajectory

Founded in 2013, F88 operates a scalable, collateral-backed lending model focused on financially underserved customer segments. The company leverages both physical distribution—via a nationwide network of 888 stores—and digital engagement through its proprietary platforms. F88 has delivered exceptional growth, with both loan book and revenue registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 77–79% between 2019 and 2025. Its core offerings include:

* Direct secured lending, primarily against motorbikes and automobiles; and

* Loan origination and servicing for CIMB Bank, underpinned by a buyback clause on non-performing loans.

Financial Performance & Outlook

In the first half of 2025, F88’s pre-tax profit surged 213% year-on-year to VND 321 billion, reaching 48% of its full-year target. For the full year, the company projects:

* 43% growth in loan portfolio

* 50% growth in pre-tax profit

Growth will be driven by network expansion, increased adoption of the MyF88 mobile application, and broader cross-selling of insurance and financial products across its customer base.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on GAS, maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 71,900/share, implying a modest 4% upside. We roll forward our valuation horizon to 2026, and we revise our 2025 NPAT estimate up by nearly 10%, driven by a stronger-than-expected provision reversal in 2Q25.

1H25 performance: GAS delivered solid earnings beat in 1H25, primarily due to a VND 1.6 tn provision reversal in 2Q25, resulting in 27% YoY NPAT growth, despite revenue growth remaining in single digits. The tight global gas market supported domestic gas and LNG prices, benefiting the dry gas segment, amid falling crude oil/fuel oil (FO) prices.

2025 outlook: Following the substantial provision reversal, we forecast 5% YoY revenue growth, but 13% YoY NPAT increase for 2025.

2026 outlook: We anticipate that GAS will not repeat the same level of non-cash income seen in 2025. As a result, we project revenue to grow 10% to VND 119.2 tn (+10% YoY), while NPAT may decline 8% YoY to VND 11 tn. The top-line growth will be driven by increased LNG imports, particularly with the expected commissioning of Nhon Trach 3&4 project by end-2025. However, a potential cooling in LNG prices may temper margin expansion.

Following the recent share price correction, we upgrade our rating on FPT to OUTPERFORM (from Market Perform). With our valuation horizon rolled forward to 2026, we raise our 12-month SOTP-based target price to VND 124,200/share (from previous VND 114,800/share) (incorporating a 15% share dividend). This implies an 18% upside. Our 2025 NPAT forecast remains largely unchanged.

1H25 results: FPT reported top-line growth of 11% YoY in 1H25, moderating from 19% YoY in 2024, largely due to subdued global IT spending. This trend is echoed in the growth of signed contract value/revenue, which slowed to 5% YoY (vs. 13% YoY in 2024). Despite this, effective cost management and a 119% YoY surge in dividend income enabled FPT to deliver 20% YoY net profit growth, broadly in line with our expectations.

2025-2026 outlook: We anticipate moderate earnings momentum in 2H25, with net profit expected to grow 15%–16% YoY. The technology segment is likely to remain under pressure due to current weakness in signed contract value growth. However, the telecommunications (telecom) segment is expected to remain the key short-term earnings driver. For 2026, amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges, we project a 15% YoY revenue growth and 16% YoY increase in NPAT.

Reiterate BUY rating with a revised 12-month TP of VND33,000/share (from VND27,900 adjusted for stock dividend), as we roll over our basis to mid-2026E (from 2025E) for our P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA targets. We maintain our 2025E revenue of VND171tn (+22% YoY) and NPAT of VND17.1tn (+42.5% YoY), translating to a net margin of 10%. As such, we expect 2H25E revenue of VND97tn (+40% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.5tn (+42% YoY).

In 2Q25, HPG reported impressive financial results, with bottom line coming in strong with NPAT of VND4.3tn (+28.5% YoY and 27.3% QoQ), in line with our expectation and market consensus.

Steel net margin improved healthily by 2.3pp to 10.3%, the highest level since 1Q21, from 8% in 1Q25 as well as 8% in 2Q24, thanks to lower input cost and higher selling prices.

Agriculture and Real Estate also contributed strongly to 2Q25 growth. Agriculture continued to show strength this quarter thanks to higher hog prices, leading to a 2Q25 NPAT of VND532bn (+136% YoY and 31% QoQ), while the Real Estate segment also posted strong NPAT of VND286bn (+360% YoY) even though revenue only came in at VND139bn (+4% YoY), thanks to a one-off gain from re-evaluation of land use rights fee.

With recent price weakness, we upgrade our rating on CTR to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM), with unchanged 12-month target price of VND 108,000/share, implying a 19.6% upside. Our net profit forecasts for 2025–2030 remain largely unchanged, supported by resilient fundamentals and emerging growth drivers.

1H25 results overview:

CTR posted 6% YoY revenue growth, while net profit after tax (NPAT) saw a double-digit increase, driven by a nearly threefold reduction in net financial losses. All business lines contributed positively, except for the operations segment. BTS construction progress slightly lagged behind projections. Notably, CTR is actively exploring renewable energy investment opportunities, which could enhance future earnings.

2025 outlook:

We forecast revenue and NPAT of VND 13.4 tn (+6% YoY) and VND 580 bn (+8% YoY).

Following 1H25 results, we made a minor downward revision to revenue, while NPAT projections remain nearly unchanged.

IMP reported robust revenue and NPAT growth of +22% and 37% YoY, respectively, driven by strong performance in both ETC (+24% YoY) and OTC (+32% YoY) segments. Hospital restocking supported ETC, while retail recovery boosted OTC. Faciility utilization is estimated at 63% compared to 55% at beginning of the year. Gross margin rose 60bps QoQ to 40.1% thanks to stable API prices and better cost control. 1H25 revenue and pretax profit achieved 46% and 43% of FY targets, respectively, keeping the company on track.

IMP’s outlook remains steady, with growth supported by an expanding SKU portfolio, a strong push in OTC, and rising market share in Tier 1&2 hospital tenders. Upcoming regulations (e.g., mandatory e-prescriptions, stricter drug quality controls) will benefit high-quality players like IMP.

As a result, we maintain our forecasts with 2025F net sales of VND 2.54 tn (+15% YoY) but increase our NPAT forecast to VND 401 bn (+25% YoY; from VND 373bn). We also introduce our 2026 forecast for revenue and NPAT of VND 2.89 tn (+13% YoY) and VND 486 bn (+21% YoY), respectively.

Our updated target price is VND 58,000/share (from 45,000/share), valuing IMP at a 2026F PE of 18.3x, derived from a blended DCF and relative P/E approach. With the stock currently trading at VND 50,500/share, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares with potential upside of 15%.

Earnings Recap: DHC (Dong Hai Ben Tre) reported YoY growth in 2Q25 NPATMI, recovering from the low base of 2024. Net revenue reached VND 880 billion, down 13.4% YoY but up 3.5% YoY when excluding the VND 165 billion one-off sale in 2Q24. The recovery was driven by improved manufacturing activity, with limited disruption from the US tariff news and policy delays that briefly impacted Vietnam’s export production.

Cost Discipline and Margin Surge: Despite an 8.8% YoY increase in OCC input prices, DHC successfully maintained lean inventory levels in 1H25 and exercised tighter control over procurement through active paper trading management. These efforts helped lift gross profit margin to a two-year high of 15.2% in 2Q25—an impressive 4.4 percentage point increase YoY. We expect further margin upside in 3Q25, supported by low-cost inventory, a more stable export outlook, and improving average selling prices (ASP). Notably, a mandated closure of outdated paper mills in Northern Vietnam-representing roughly 20% of national capacity—may tighten supply and support ASPs in the near term.

Outlook and Forecasts: For 2025, we forecast net revenue of VND 3.6 trillion (-0.4% YoY) and net income of VND 276 billion (+13.9% YoY). In 2026, we project VND 3.7 trillion in revenue (+3.3% YoY) and VND 299 billion in net income (+8.2% YoY). Containerboard consumption (testliner and medium) is expected to reach 307 and 311 thousand tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Valuation and Investment View: DHC is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 10.7x—above its 5-year historical average of 10.3x—but looks more attractive on forward P/E multiples of 9.5x (2025) and 8.1x (2026). The stock’s P/B of 1.35x is also meaningfully below the 5-year average of 2.29x. Though a mid-sized player with just ~3% market share in Vietnam’s corrugated paper market, DHC is positioned for long-term margin and capacity expansion.

2025 AGM highlights

CMG has set an ambitious target of reaching USD 1 billion in annual revenue by 2028, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20–30% over 2025–2028—significantly higher than the 12% CAGR achieved during 2020–2024. This aggressive growth plan is underpinned by a strategic investment phase, particularly in 2023–2024, which has temporarily constrained earnings growth. In 2024, net profit after tax (NPAT) rose by only 6% YoY, reflecting pressure from elevated fixed costs. Management has indicated that this trend may persist in the medium term as the company prioritizes long-term scalability and market positioning.

2024 performance review

CMG reported 12% YoY revenue growth and 6% YoY net profit (NPAT) growth in 2024. The Technology & Solutions and Digital Infrastructure segments were the primary contributors to topline expansion. However, the Research & Education segment continued to operate at a loss and is expected to take additional time to reach breakeven.

2025 guidance

For 2025, CMG targets VND 9.8 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 464 billion in NPAT (+9% YoY). These projections reflect ongoing investment pressures that may continue to weigh on profitability. To support its long-term growth ambitions, CMG has opted to suspend cash dividends for 2024. Notably, the company has recently received investment approval for a hyperscale data center project, reinforcing its commitment to infrastructure expansion.

HT1 is well positioned to benefit from shifting demand to the South, its core market. The company maintains a strong brand presence with high product consistency. With demand increasingly concentrated in Southern projects, HT1’s scale and location give it a competitive edge. For 2H25, we expect stable pricing, improved input cost management, and volume growth to support continued earnings recovery. We revised FY25 forecasts to VND 7,987 bn in revenue (+8.5% YoY) and VND 258 bn in NPAT (+296% YoY), and FY26 to VND 8,691 bn in revenue and VND 316 bn in NPAT (+22.1% YoY).

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on HT1 and raise our target price to VND 15,700/share, based on a 6.0x EV/EBITDA target multiple, implying a 12.1% upside from current levels. HT1 is well-positioned to benefit from accelerating infrastructure disbursement and the recovery of the property market in southern Vietnam. The company boasts a long-standing brand reputation in the region and consistent product quality. Although competition in the domestic market remains intense due to a supply surplus-particularly in Northern and Central Vietnam-the pressure in the southern market is more subdued, thanks to lower capacity and rising demand.

We upgrade our rating for NT2 from OUTPERFORM to BUY, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 25,000/share (from VND 21,500/share) (representing 33% upside). The upgrade is driven by our higher NPAT forecasts, now up 18% for 2025 and 65% for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected profit margins.

Despite softer top-line performance, earnings are poised to outperform, backed by solid contracted volumes: During April-May 2025, NT2 witnessed weaker-than-anticipated revenue and volume, reaching VND 1.4 tn (-7% YoY) and 554 bn kWh (-25% YoY). Meanwhile, Qc will likely remain steady for the quarter (with 21% YoY growth), implying that NT2 might achieve a higher-than-expected 2Q25 NPAT. We estimate that it could achieve VND 200-250 bn (well above our previous estimate of VND 130-160 bn). Accordingly, we revise up earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026.

5M25 period saw a transition in the national power generation mix, with Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) favoring hydropower, which is more cost-efficient than thermal sources. Additionally, the recent 4.8% increase in EVN’s average electricity price is likely to boost its profitability in 1H25, strengthen the likelihood that EVN will recover forest environmental service fees for power plants, including NT2.

In May 2025, Hoa Sen Group (HSG) recorded galvanized steel sales of 157,000 tons, reflecting a 2.7% decline month-over-month (MoM) and a 13% drop year-over-year (YoY). The average selling price (ASP) remained stable at VND 20.1 million per ton. Monthly revenue reached VND 3.2 trillion, while net profit after tax (NPAT) came in at VND 104 billion, marking a 17% MoM increase. This improvement lifted the net margin to 3.2%, potentially driven by enhanced cost control and strong domestic market competitiveness of HSG’s products.

Vietnam Steel Sector Update: Total steel consumption in Vietnam for the first four months of 2025 reached 10.4 million tons, up 11.2% YoY, outperforming initial industry expectations. This growth was supported by robust public investment, a recovering real estate market, and resilient foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement. Notably, domestic galvanized steel consumption (excluding exports) surged by 36% YoY, indicating strong internal demand.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG. The target price is adjusted to VND 18,300/share (from VND 18,000/share), reflecting updated 2025 NPAT estimates of VND 701 billion, a 37.4% YoY increase (previously VND 604 billion).