Company Report

We are upgrading the shares of PVS to OUTPERFORM with 1Y target of VND 33,000/share, as we increase our earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 14% and 8%, respectively. This reflects the booking of several large projects. 

We believe that the EPC segment will enjoy YoY growth of 122% YoY due to continued booking of large projects booking (Block B upstream, Orsted’s windfarm, et al), and that margin improvement too will be supportive of go forward earnings. Interestingly, PVS’ backlog is a significant USD 2.5 bn and additional large contract awards totaling USD 400 mn are likely over the near-term, likely from a domestic oil&gas project.

Our rating upgrade also reflects PVS’ rather robust net cash (Cash – ST & LT debt) per share position of VND 29,850/share at 1Q 2025, which provides significant downside protection. Consolidated revenue did reach VND 6 tn during 1Q25, up +62% YoY. However, were it not for the forex gains/losses and asset revaluation (VND 130 bn), 1Q 2025 PBT would have declined 66% YoY.

VCB’s 1Q25 results were relatively soft but broadly in line with our expectations, with pre-tax profit reaching VND 10.9 tn (+1.3% YoY). Despite near-term moderation, the bank continues to exhibit prudent risk management and maintains strong fundamentals amid ongoing external uncertainties. Its cautious approach to tariff risks and proactive monitoring of asset quality underpin our medium-term outlook.

We maintain a positive view on VCB, although we are mindful of potential medium-term headwinds. These include softer income from trade finance, pressure on credit quality, and some NIM compression as the bank could continue to extend support to clients in this challenging macro environment. That said, we believe that these risks are more likely to materialize from 2026 onward, rather than having a significant impact during 2025. For 2025, we forecast a pre-tax profit of VND 44.7 tn (+5.9% YoY), supported by credit growth of 13% and a modest 4 bp NIM contraction to 2.82%.

VCB shares are currently trading at a trailing P/B of 2.56x—below both its historical average of 3.2x and its 1-standard deviation threshold of 2.82x. This valuation likely reflects the bank’s conservative lending stance over the past two years, which has resulted in some market share loss relative to leading private-sector banks. However, we believe the 2025 forward P/B of 2.09x is undemanding, particularly given VCB’s systemic importance and industry-leading asset quality. With a 12-month target price of VND 69,000/share, implying 21% upside, we reiterate our Outperform rating on the stock.

We lower our rating on FPT to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), as we trim our SOTP-based 12-month TP to VND 122,500/share (from VND 129,600), representing only 1% upside. We also note that FPT’s share price has increased by over 10% since our previous update. Our new target price reflects our 3% lower 2025F NPATMI, which is attributed to our 19% lower revenue estimate for the APAC (excl. Japan) market.

During April 2025, revenue and NPAT enjoyed 12% and 14% YoY growth: This reflects the impact of US tariff policy on the technology field, as global businesses have become more cautious on IT spending. In particular, the segment saw a modest 5% YoY PBT growth, while the telecom segment emerged as a new growth driver, with 25% YoY PBT growth.

2025 outlook: We expect that the current global macro environment should take time to witness significant improvements. To be conservative, we forecast 2025 revenue and NPATMI to achieve VND 72.6 tn (+15% YoY) and VND 9.3 tn (+18% YoY), respectively.

Upside risk: A better global macro environment could boost IT spending and support the technology segment.

Weaker sales amidst subdued sentiment and intense competition. Excluding the impact consolidation from Sabibeco, revenue still witnessed a decrease of 10% YoY (partly due to an early Tet, leaving more sales during 4Q24). With the fragile consumer confidence, management expects some downtrading activities during 2H25.

Gross margin improved primarily due to consolidation of Sabibeco. Management expects further improvement through improved hedging and operational efficiencies. Excluding one-off acquisition expenses, NPAT declined 12.7% YoY (compared to a reported -22% YoY).

For 2025, we expect that the environment will remain a challenge, as consumer spend tightens. As a result, we lower our 2025F forecast for net revenue and NPAT to VND28.2tn (-11% YoY) and VND4.3tn (-5% YoY), respectively. See Exhibit 1 for our assumptions.

On the other hand, SAB remains an attractive consumer stock with a healthy balance sheet and generous dividend (c.10% yield for 2025F), aided by its market dominance in mainstream beer, Vietnam’s GDP growth, and a growing middle-class. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of SAB along with our DCF/PER-based 12-month target price of VND58,000/share, which represents upside potential of 17%.

We reiterate our Outperform rating for STB shares with a 1Y TP of VND 47,600/share (from VND 41,900). We do take into account the potential provision reversal from the Phong Phu Industrial Park debt collection and the sale of the 32.5% stake locked at VAMC. Both could act as further catalysts to the shares.

Restructuring Completion as a Catalyst: 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for STB as it concludes its restructuring program. The resolution of the 32.5% stake held at VAMC is expected to happen in 2H25, which could unlock new growth levels, including the ability to engage with strategic investors, resume dividends.

Earnings Growth Outlook: In 2025, STB is projected to achieve a pretax profit of VND 14.6 tn (+15% YoY), driven by 13.5% credit growth and a 10bps drop in credit cost to 0.28%. The bank plans to diversify its funding base, targeting 20% growth in medium- and long-term funding to reach VND 44 tn, as retail clients favor short-term deposits in a low-rate environment. Asset quality remains a priority, with VND 1 trillion in NPL write-offs stabilizing the NPL ratio at 2.4%. However, NIM is expected to compress by 16 bps to 3.56% due to competition and limited floating-rate mortgage exposure. Despite ongoing workforce restructuring, the CIR is likely to stay elevated at 48.5%.

Looking ahead to 2026, pretax profit is forecast to rise to VND 17.8 trillion (+21.5% YoY), supported by 14% credit growth, further credit cost improvement to 0.23%, and a modest NIM recovery to 3.6%. Asset quality is set to improve, with the NPL ratio declining to 2.1% following an aggressive cleanup of bad debt.

Vinpearl is a prominent Vietnamese hospitality and tourism brand owned by Vingroup, the largest private enterprises in Vietnam. Established in 2001, Vinpearl operates a wide range of luxury resorts, hotels, amusement parks and entertainment complexes, and golf courses across Vietnam.

Vinpearl’s competitive advantage is underpinned by:

•           Benefits from strategic backing from Vingroup, which provides superior project management capabilities, brand equity, and access to a high-quality ecosystem.

•           Established market leadership: Vinpearl’s long track record in delivering large-scale resort and entertainment developments, combined with a diversified hotel portfolio and prime landbank, supports its market leadership in Vietnam’s tourism and hospitality sector.

•           Long-term growth potential: By expanding its portfolio of mega-clusters and improving efficiency, Vinpearl is well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth within Vietnam’s evolving tourism landscape.

Vinpearl’s strategy includes increasing hotel capacity by 40%, expanding amusement park area by 65%, and quadrupling the number of 18-hole golf courses by 2028. Income from property transfer segment is projected to be around 21.5tn for the 2025-2027 period, supporting robust earnings growth.

For 2025-2026, we assume continued growth in the hospitality segment, supported by increased international tourist arrivals—particularly from key markets such as China and South Korea and opening of VinWonders Vu Yen. However, a decline property sales and financial income relative to the prior year may lead to a decrease in both revenue and NPAT for 2025. As a result, we forecast Vinpearl to deliver 2025F revenue and NPAT of VND 13 tn (-8% YoY) and VND 1.68 tn (-34% YoY), respectively.  We forecast Vinpearl to deliver 2026F revenue and NPAT of VND 15.4 tn (+16% YoY) and VND 2.59 tn (+59% YoY), respectively.

MSN reported better-than-expected 1Q25 results, with revenue of VND 19 tn (flat YoY, +11% YoY LFL comparison), NPAT of VND 983 bn (+105% YoY), and NPATMI VND 394 bn (+277% YoY). Solid performance was achieved at all three core businesses (MCH, WCM and MML), while the loss from its non-core mining business (MSR) was substantially reduced. MSN incurred one-off expenses of VND 229 bn related to the Wineco and Mobicast goodwill write-offs, along with other non-operating activities. Net debt/EBITDA was maintained around 2.9x for the last three quarters, in line with company guidance. 

Investment view: MSN’s 2025 earnings growth is to be fueled by continuous improvement in the core consumer-retail business, buttressed by the outstanding performance of the meat business given elevated pork prices and reduced losses associated with the non-core mining business. Given the 1Q25 earnings result, we believe that MSN will be able to exceed base case earnings guidance for 2025.

Since our rating downgrade, MCH’s share price has declined 22%. At this stage, we believe that flattish net income growth for 2025 and the uncertainty of US tariffs may already be discounted into MCH’s share price. As such, with a much more reasonable valuation and long term growth potential, we are upgrading the shares of MCH to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) despite cutting our 1Y target price to VND 157,000/share (from VND 169,000/share). The migration of MCH shares to HOSE is expected sometime between 3Q25-1Q26, which would likely attract investor interest to the name. In addition, MCH has a decent cash dividend policy (60% on par for 2025, 5% dividend yield).

MCH's exposure to the U.S. market is minimal, with exports accounting for < 1% of total sales, which limits the direct impact of tariffs. Given MCH's strong product portfolio, consumer preferences may shift toward in-home consumption during periods of economic uncertainty, helping MCH to sustain earnings. However, broader economic repercussions (including weaker export activity and the potential decline in consumer spending) pose downside risk. In the event of an economic slowdown, MCH may opt to delay product launches, prioritizing cost management and market stability. Additionally, the premiumization trend could extend. These factors may weigh on earnings growth over the near-term. As a result, we trim our 2025 revenue and EBITDA estimates to account for the potential adverse effects of US tariffs. Moreover, the weaker-than-expected financial income during 1Q25 has led us to further reduce our estimates for the year. Our 2025 net income estimate is lowered to VND 7.9 tn (flat YoY, from VND 8.3 tn).

Revenue and net profit during 1Q25 are estimated at VND37tn and VND3.3tn, respectively, providing strong growth of 22%YoY and 16% YoY reflective of substantial sales growth during March with the contribution of the first furnace of Dung Quat 2. HPG‘s construction steel, HRC and billet sales volume increased by 29% YoY to 2.4m tons in 1Q25.

2025 business plan: Consolidated revenue of VND170tn, up 21.4% YoY, and consolidated NPAT of VND15tn, up 25% YoY.

Progress of Dung Quat 2 project: Phase 1 (the first blast furnace) has commenced operation and contributed to the March result. The second furnace is expected to commence operation during September 2025. The company sees some margin improvement for the new furnaces, partially due to lower input costs and from reduced competition.

Railway track project: The high-quality railway track factory is expected to start construction in May in Dung Quat Complex and be completed during May 2027. The project would have a capex requirement of around VND14tn. Preliminary estimates of total steel demand for Vietnam railway projects are around 10m tons.

Reiterate BUY call with 12-month target price of VND33,500/share. We increase our NPAT forecast for 2025F and 2026F to VND17.1tn and VND22.2tn, respectively (up from VND15.3tn and VND21tn). This corresponds to YoY growth of 42.5% YoY and 29.4% YoY, and reflects lower input costs and reduced competition due to HRC AD duties on Chinese imports.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of FPT, with a 12-month target price of VND 129,600 (from VND 156,300/share to reflect the current uncertainty). We recommend “a buy on the dip” if the share price corrects further.

FPT upholds its previously announced 2025 revenue and PBT growth targets of 20% and 21% YoY respectively. However, management believes that potential macroeconomic risks and disruption to the global value chain (following the US tariff policy) could impose challenges for the company to stick to this guidance and maintain double-digit growth momentum in the upcoming years. Further, FPT expects to continue prioritizing key focus areas, including AI, semiconductor, automotive, digital transformation, and green transformation.

We lower our target P/E metrics for technology and education segments to 20x and the telecom segment to 14x. Such P/E levels are similar to that of peers, due to higher uncertainty over the medium term. Our previous respective P/E metrics for these segments are 25x, 23x and 17x.

2025 outlook: We expect revenue of VND 74.6 tn (+18% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 9.5 tn (+21% YoY), which will be driven primarily by the technology segment (nearly unchanged compared to our previous estimates).

Both revenue and PBT saw double-digit growth during 2024, supported by the acceleration of sales and improved cost control.

FOX’s respective targets for revenue and PBT during 2025 are VND 19.9 tn (+13.0% YoY) and VND 4.2 tn (+17.1% YoY). However, due to the most up-to-date tariff policy of the Trump administration, FOX is concerned that customers (especially business clients) may tighten their budget for IT services.

Long-term outlook includes opportunities and challenges. In which, ARPU growth is feasible in the future. Further, potential of satellite internet service could reshape the future of the global telecom industry. On the other hand, FOX management believes that the US reciprocal tariff policy might generate indirect impacts.

HHV's consolidated sales and net earnings are projected to reach VND 3,584 billion and VND 555 billion, respectively, representing year-over-year (YoY) increases of 8% and 12%.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model provides a one-year target price of VND 13,000 per share. We reiterate our BUY rating on HHV shares.

Despite a recent 20% drawdown in the stock price over the past five days due to market correction, HHV should not be significantly impacted by changes in US and other countries' tariff policies. We believe HHV stock presents a compelling opportunity.