Company Report

Sustained double-digit growth in Vietnam’s ICT and consumer electronics market

Strong expansion momentum from the Erablue chain in Indonesia

Monetization of existing infrastructure through higher-margin ancillary services, including utility payments, agent banking, technician services, and e-commerce platforms

After two decades of strong earnings growth, DMX appears well-positioned to sustain double-digit expansion over the next five years. Management targets revenue of VND 182 trillion and net profit of VND 13 trillion by 2030, implying 2026–2030 CAGR of 11% for revenue and 16% for earnings.

In Vietnam, DMX continues to benefit from its dominant position in the ICT and consumer electronics retail market, where it currently holds approximately 40% market share. The remaining market remains highly fragmented, with many smaller competitors facing profitability challenges, providing room for further consolidation and share gains.

Internationally, Indonesia represents a compelling long-term growth opportunity. The country’s modern retail penetration in consumer electronics remains relatively low, creating favorable conditions for organized retail expansion. DMX plans to scale its Erablue chain to 1,000 stores by 2030, up from 181 stores in 2025.

In addition, DMX is increasingly leveraging its nationwide infrastructure and MWG’s customer ecosystem of approximately 40 million users to cross-sell higher-margin services. These include utility payment solutions, agent banking, technician services, and integrated e-commerce offerings, which could support margin expansion, recurring revenue streams, and stronger customer retention over time.

Structural low-cost producer with resilient margins: Pig farming contributes approximately 46% of revenue and 62% of 9M25 gross profit. HPA operates at the lower end of the industry cost curve, which limits downside risk even under normalized hog price conditions and supports margin resilience across cycles.

Defensible economics driven by premium genetics and a bundled model: HPA’s integrated sow–feed bundling model functions as a quasi-franchise, enhancing customer stickiness and supporting premium pricing over the long term. We see this as a key differentiator relative to smaller or less integrated peers.

Compelling valuation despite superior fundamentals: HPA trades at a 2025F P/E of 7.6x, a substantial discount to the sector average of ~15x. While the company commands a higher-than-average P/B of 3.7x, this is justified by structurally higher margins, stronger ROE, and a conservative balance sheet with D/E of 0.3x.

Masan Consumer Corporation (UPCOM: MCH) is a direct subsidiary of Masan Consumer Holdings (excluding the beer business, Masan Brewery). Since being established, the company has expanded its portfolio brands across eight fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) categories to become one of Vietnam’s foremost consumer staple companies.

MCH food and beverage segment offers a wide range of products, with hundreds of SKUs under six main categories: seasoning, convenience food, coffee, beverage (mainly energy drinks; again, excluding beer), and processed meat (which moved to MML from 2023); of which its seasoning portfolio including fish sauce, chilli and soy sauce have led the market for years (market share of 45%, 64% and 43%, respectively) MCH also penetrated the home & personal care (HPC) market during 2020 via the acquisition of NET Detergent JSC. In the period 2017-2023, each year, the company introduced 50 initiatives on average to their product pipeline to meet consumer’s daily basic needs.

On 18 Mar 2024, Vingroup Jsc, the parent company of VRE decided to fully divest from SDI Trading Development and Investment Company Limited (“SDI”). SDI owns more than 99% of charter capital of Sado Trading Commercial Jsc (“Sado”) – which in turn is a significantly large shareholder of VRE with a 40.5% stake (41.5% effective holding due to VRE having 56.5 million treasury shares). The transaction is expected to be completed in the third quarter this year. With the new major shareholders, we expect VRE will operate more effectively when having more contributions from upcoming shareholders who have consumer retail experience. Also, VRE still works with Vingroup and its ecosystem as the strategic partner. We reiterate our BUY rating for VRE, while bumping up our target price to VND 33,600/share (+29% upside), which is slightly higher than our previous target price of VND 31,300/share as we roll forward our valuation.

We maintain our positive outlook on TDM’s operations, given the stable growth in consumption demand and TDM’s most efficient clean water enterprise due to its low water loss rate and stable source of raw materials from both the Dong Nai River and Phuoc Hoa Lake. Additionally, the Bau Bang factory is expected to surpass 10% of the average demand for Binh Duong province between 2022-2025 to cater to future demand in the Bau Bang Industrial & Residential Area, as well as additional industrial customers setting up shop at VSIP 3. We recommend an Outperform rating for the shares of TDM, with a target price of VND 39,600 (6.5% upside) based on our DCF valuation. Dividend payout ratio will reach 45% in 2023, translating to an yield of 3.6%. In the long term, we expect that the M&A of Gia Tan - Dong Nai water plants and Can Tho Water Supply JSC to be the main drivers for TDM's profit growth  when demand growth in Binh Duong slows down.

The shares of NT2 have achieved our target price of VND 26,800 (as our 18-Apr-2022 update), and we adjust the company’s 2015-2019 FX loss claim to our estimates to derive the new target price of VND 29,300 (+5.4% upside). The shares offer a 2022 dividend yield of 6.5% while the current 12-month deposit rate range is 5.0%-5.2% at the SOCBs and JSCBs. Over the next 12M, an estimated +100bps increase in deposit rates is assumed and NT2’s dividend yield may not be as attractive given the stock’s limited upside. With total ROI of 12.1% including dividend yield, we call for Market perform rating on the shares.  

If excluding the one-off, non-cash gain from the revaluation of Tan Phat JSC in 2Q 2021, PC1 could offer an approx. NPATMI of 29% YoY in FY22 (VND 552 bn) - led by three wind power projects (Lien Lap, Phong Nguyen, and Phong Huy) and the Dinh Cong properties project. PC1 should also enjoy attractive long-term growth in 2023 NPATMI (+55% YoY), driven by Dinh Cong, Vinh Hung & Bac Tu Liem projects and Tan Phat’s new nickel project. We reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares of PC1, along with our 1Y TP of VND 48,800 (+15% upside). 

We reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares of STB, following our 1Y TP increase from VND 35,200/share to VND 40,000/share - representing upside of 18.7%. Our target price upgrade reflects our belief that the legacy asset balance will be aggressively reduced, on top of the successful sales of STB shares pledged at VAMC and the Phong Phu Industrial Park during the year. STB remains on track to clearing legacy assets despite Covid-19 interruptions. We estimate net legacy assets to be roughly VND 26.6 tn at year-end 2021 (-31% YoY).  Core business activities remained in good shape with the individual customer base having gradually expanded over the last several years, bancassurance sales moved up to the Top 4 in the system in 4Q 2021, and payment & settlement income in the Top 3 amongst JSCBs (after TCB and MBB). Credit metrics of the current loan book were stable, with NPLs and a restructured loan ratio of 1.47% and 0.26% respectively. Downside risk: The delay in selling the remaining collateral is the STB’s biggest risk. Under our bear case where sales are not executed in 2022, our 1Y TP would decline to VND 33,000/share.

We are initiating coverage on the shares of pre-IPO (February 2022) Nova Consumer Group Joint Stock Company (NCG) with our 1Y target price for the shares of NCG is VND 53,200/share, implying a 22% upside relative to the IPO starting price. NCG is a leader in the animal health, feed, and farm market segment, having long-established customer relationships with the ability to create a full “3F” supply chain. It also has the advantage of being a part of the Nova Group ecosystem (including Novaland, Nova Consumer Services and six other members), which should allow potential future synergies and sharing resources. There is also the potential for strong growth in the FMCG business, from both organic growth and M&A perspective (on-going transactions:  Anco Family Food, a well-established beverage company, and a nutrition company). From 2022, NCG is widely anticipated to consolidate the consumer business, including Anco Family Food (sausage), milk, energy drink and coffee. Excluding one-off items in 2021, NCG should post strong core profit growth of 109% YoY in 2022. Through 2021-2026, however, we estimate that NCG will continue to post a net profit CAGR of 26.8%.

In our estimates, excluding the one-off, non-cash gain from the revaluation of Tan Phat JSC in 2Q 2021, PC1 could still offer an approx. NPATMI of 16% YoY in FY22 (VND 559 bn) - led by three wind power projects (Lien Lap, Phong Nguyen, and Phong Huy). PC1 should also enjoy attractive long-term growth in 2023 NPATMI (+40% YoY), driven by Vinh Hung & Bac Tu Liem projects and Tan Phat’s new nickel project. We call for Outperform rating and 1Y TP of VND 46,800 (+18% upside) on the shares of PC1. An additional 81MW hydropower plants could come on line since 2024 - 2026, lifting total hydropower capacity to 283MW by 2026  - up from 168MW in 2021.  

DXS is set to IPO this April, and its listing on the HOSE is expected to occur in May 2021. The charter capital of DXS prior to the IPO is VND 3.2 tn. A total of 71.7 mn shares (equivalent to a 20% stake post-IPO), which comprises of 35.8 mn new shares from the Company and 35.8 mn existing shares from current shareholders, will be on offer at a price of VND 32,000/share. 

In the coming time, DXS plans to further strengthen its leading position in the primary real estate agency industry, by further expanding its capabilities to provide end-to-end real estate brokerage services. As such, the Company will continue to focus on primary brokerage, while further expanding to the secondary brokerage by utilizing its “online to offline” technology platform. For the 2021 – 2023 period, the Company ambitiously forecasts its revenue and NPATMI to grow at a CAGR of 53% and 45%, respectively. Such an impressive feat of growth is predominantly driven by its growing the primary brokerage business, with an increasing number of units to be distributed during the period. According to the firm’s management, approximately 70% of units have been committed by developers, and they are quite confident to achieve the plan. Provided that the real estate market continues its positive momentum, coupled with the increase in income from full-service brokerage, secondary brokerage and non-cyclical fee-based services to total income, we believe that DXS could achieve its target in 2021. 

Vinhomes JSC posted its results up to 9M 2020, with net sales of VND 49.4 tn (+31.2% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 16.3 tn (+6.6% YoY). The key driver for positive performance came from deliveries of the three megaprojects (Vinhomes Ocean Park, Grand Park and Smart City), Vinhomes Marina (Haiphong) and recognition of the sale of the office complex at Vinhomes Metropolis. As a result, revenue from sale of properties achieved VND 46.8 tn, increasing by 33.8% YoY. We reiterate our BUY rating on the shares of VHM.

Capacity expansion to spur long-term growth for Moc Chau Milk (MCM): In recent years, MCM revenue was constrained due to a lack of capacity: namely full factory utilization and limited dairy farms. After Vinamilk (VNM: HOSE) took over the controlling right indirectly via GTNfoods (GTN: HOSE) in MCM, it put forth an ambitious capex plan of VND 1.6 tn to develop a 4,000 head dairy farm and a new dairy factory in order to address these constraints. Capex is expected to be funded by an increase in charter capital. Post-deal, Vinamilk is anticipated to hold over a 51% stake in MCM  - up from its current indirect stake of 28.3%. In 2020, we forecast MCM to post VND 2.76 tn in revenue (+8% YoY) and VND 201 bn in net profit (+20.2%), which should translate into 2020 EPS of VND 3,003 pre-capital raise. Growth is likely to come from restructuring of MCM’s distribution network, and changes in sales mix. Moc Chau Milk is a household name in Northern Vietnam given its higher quality milk products.  Over the long-term, we are of the opinion that MCM could post stronger-than-industry growth (i.e double-digit bottom line growth) in the coming years thanks to capacity expansion and margin improvement in premium products and synergies with Vinamilk, especially in terms of market development. MCM expects to list on HOSE within 9 months.

Hanoi Plastic JSC (UPCOM: NHH) was formerly a SOE established in 1972 under the Hanoi Department of Industry. The company was transformed into a JSC in 2008, with an initial charter capital of VND 65 bn. The company listed its shares in the UPCOM in Sept 2017. After the government fully divested in Dec 2017, NHH was acquired by Cadivi Dong Nai, a subsidiary of Vietnam Electric Cable Corporation (HOSE: CAV). In late 2018, Anphat Holdings purchased the stake of NHH from Cadivi Dong Nai, thereby having NHH become a member of An Phat Holdings (APH). In January 2019, the company increased its charter capital from VND 65 bn to VND 168 bn by way of a 1:1 stock bonus, and a rights issuance at the ratio of 65:38. In Sept 2019, the company continued to increase its charter capital from VND 168 bn to VND 344.4 bn by issuing stock bonuses, stock dividends, and rights issuances at a 1:1 ratio.