Company Report

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for NT2 but revise down our target price to VND 27,000/share (from VND 30,000/share previously), implying 17% upside. The target price adjustment reflects a 12% reduction in our 2026 NPAT forecast.

Investment thesis

Secured gas supply advantage: NT2 remains among a limited group of power generators with long-term gas supply agreements with PV GAS, providing relatively strong fuel security and operational visibility.

Lower structural cost base: The company’s machinery and equipment were fully depreciated in 4Q25, resulting in a structurally lower depreciation burden and improved cost efficiency from 2026 onward.

High availability supporting system needs: With no major or medium scheduled maintenance in 2026–2027, NT2 is expected to maintain elevated plant availability, enhancing its role in supporting system stability during periods of rising electricity demand.

At the current share price, HSG is trading at 2026F–2027F forward P/E multiples of 19.7x and 19.3x, respectively — a valuation that appears demanding relative to its modest earnings growth outlook over the next two years and the structurally competitive nature of the galvanized steel industry.

While 2H FY2026 earnings are expected to improve sequentially from 1H FY2026, the recovery largely reflects normalization from a weak base rather than a meaningful acceleration in growth. Meanwhile, the Hoa Sen Home expansion story remains in an investment phase and is still far from contributing materially to consolidated earnings.

Following our revised estimates, we lower our target price to VND 12,900/share (from VND 14,300/share), implying 2.8% upside from the current price, and maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG. In our view, the stock would require a more meaningful valuation discount to adequately reflect its declining earnings trajectory and execution risks.

Valuation remains supportive, though sustained re-rating depends on ROE recovery. MSB is trading at a discount to both its historical tier-2 peer valuation range and its FY2026F BVPS of VND 15,672/share. Given the bank’s current ROE of approximately 14% (vs. 10-year average ROE of 11.4%), the discount appears broadly justified. In our view, a meaningful re-rating toward historical averages would likely require a sustained improvement in ROE toward the 15–16% range. While achievable, this outcome is not yet fully assured given ongoing NIM pressure and elevated credit provisioning requirements.

Write-back income provides meaningful earnings optionality. Management has guided for approximately VND 1.4tn in recovery income in FY2026, supported by a legacy pool of roughly VND 10tn in written-off NPLs over the medium term. This represents a potentially material non-linear earnings driver that is not fully reflected in current valuation multiples. Our base case incorporates the guided VND 1.4tn recovery assumption; however, upside remains if actual recoveries exceed expectations, albeit timing and realization remain borrower-dependent and inherently difficult to forecast. We estimate that every additional VND 1tn in write-back income could contribute roughly 7% upside to FY2026 PBT.

Leading CASA franchise among tier-2 peers supports funding cost advantage. MSB reported a CASA ratio of 26.5% in 1Q26, the highest among tier-2 banks under our coverage universe (vs. TPB at ~22%, VIB at ~18%, and OCB at ~15%). This supports a blended cost of funds of around 4.0%, representing an estimated 50–100bps advantage relative to lower-CASA peers. The moderation from 28.9% in 4Q25 appears largely attributable to the broader industry shift toward term deposits amid elevated interest rates, rather than franchise-specific weakness. As the interest rate environment stabilizes, we believe MSB retains meaningful NIM recovery optionality through potential CASA normalization.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of GAS, with a 12-month target price of VND 86,000/share (from VND 83,400/share previously), representing 5% upside potential. Our higher target price reflects a slight increase in our 2026 earnings estimate.

Balanced sourcing strategy: The exploration of new gas fields and further LNG imports could enhance the proactiveness of domestic fuel sourcing while offsetting long-term depletion risks.

Higher natural gas gross profit margin vs. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) should be a key factor for 2026 earnings resilience.

We upgrade HDB to BUY with a 12-month target price of VND 35,000, implying 32.1% upside, supported by continued earnings growth and sustained above-system credit expansion.

The growth profile is clear, but the investment case hinges on execution. HDB continues to deliver strong headline metrics: high credit growth, robust ROE, and an expanding ecosystem. The more relevant question at this stage is not whether growth persists, but whether the balance sheet can scale efficiently without eroding returns.

HDB retains a structural advantage in credit allocation, with capacity to grow loans at ~35% over 2025–2027 — materially above the system, supported in part by its role in restructuring weaker institutions. This creates a window to accumulate market share faster than peers, reinforcing earnings momentum. At the same time, it places greater emphasis on funding discipline and risk management as the credit cycle matures.

Importantly, the composition of growth is improving. Credit expansion is increasingly diversified across manufacturing, services, retail trade, SMEs, and household businesses, reducing concentration risk. Rather than relying on a single lending segment, HDB is building a broader, more resilient franchise aligned with Vietnam’s consumption growth and formalization trends.

At the current market price, PVD is trading at 2026F-2027F P/E forward of 14.2x and 12.2x respectively, while its forward P/B are 1.1x and 1.0x in the same period. Our revised DCF valuation points to new target price of VND 34,000/share (from VND 27,400/share) reflecting a longer industry cycle assumption and more aggressive investment stance from the management. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for the share due to limited upside at the current price, and recommend to buy on dip.

Favorable industry outlook with prospect for a longer upcycle from more persistent demand for upstream development after higher supply uncertainty in the Middle East

Strong earnings growth in 2026 of 38% YoY thanks to contribution of 2 new jack-up rigs, stable day rate and utilization rate, PVD VI full year contribution and PVD I fully depreciated.

The management is taking a more aggressive stance in rig investment, with plan to invest 3 more rigs in the next 5 years.

GVR is currently trading at a forward P/E of 17x, below its 3-year historical average of 21.7x. We maintain a constructive stance on GVR, underpinned by its unrivaled rubber land bank of 377,797 hectares across key provinces including Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, and Tay Ninh. The planned conversion of over 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations into industrial park land represents a transformative growth driver, offering substantial long-term upside. Applying a SOTP valuation framework, we derive a 12-month target price of VND 36,200/share (1% down side) and reiterate our Market Perform rating.

Rubber prices remain elevated, underpinning 2026 earnings. In May 2026, prices rose 32% YoY and 28% YTD on weather-driven supply constraints, with Thailand facing heavy rainfall risks. Higher oil prices also lent support amid ongoing Middle East tensions. We project average rubber prices to rise 15% YoY to VND 58 million/ton. Rubber revenue is estimated at VND 26.7 trillion (+12% YoY), with consumption volume expected to reach 513,870 tons (-4% YoY) in 2026. Gross margin expected to reach 28%, up 2ppt YoY.

We expect income from the conversion of rubber plantation land into industrial park land. GVR is progressing legal and investment approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, with a strategic focus on southern provinces. In 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion in pre-tax profit, assuming 1,500 ha of converted land in Dong Nai and Binh Duong (old).

Financial health remains solid. In 1Q26, GVR reported net cash of VND 25.8 trillion, equivalent to 17.3% of market capitalization. We believe the company’s strong cash position will support higher financial income as deposit rates trend upward.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating for PLX, with a 12-month target price of VND 43,200/share (previously VND 41,300/share), representing 7% upside. Despite lowering our 2026 NPATMI assumption, we roll our valuation horizon forward to 2027 and incorporate a DCF approach alongside our P/E-based valuation.

Investment thesis: PLX as the leading petroleum player in Vietnam: Along with Dung Quat (BSR: HOSE) and Nghi Son (NSRP) refineries, PLX plays a key role in ensuring adequate petroleum supply, underpinned by its extensive storage infrastructure, broad partner network and large petrol station footprint.

1Q26 results: PLX recorded revenue growth (+45% YoY) but a negative NPATMI of -VND 763 bn (vs. a positive level of VND 133 bn in 1Q25).

Petroleum segment loss was the main driver, due to a significant inventory provision of over VND 6.3 tn, reflecting 1) elevated global petroleum price volatility in March and April 2026 and 2) PLX’s critical role in additional petroleum sourcing in March, amid sourcing difficulties from several other primary wholesalers.

Other segments remained stable operations, as respective overall PBT grew by 2% YoY.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on ACB with a 12-month target price of VND 27,500/share, implying upside potential of 20.9%, alongside a projected dividend yield of approximately 3%. Our target valuation is based on a target P/B multiple of 1.3x, which remains below the bank’s historical average of approximately 1.5x.

Best-in-class asset quality remains a core strength: Asset quality continues to be one of ACB’s key investment pillars. The bank remains among the strongest performers in our coverage universe, with non-performing loans consistently maintained at around 1% and loan loss coverage sustained above 100%. This reflects ACB’s prudent underwriting standards and conservative provisioning approach, which we believe provide a meaningful buffer against ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

Earnings recovery expected to normalize in 2026: Following two years of below-trend earnings growth, we expect ACB’s pre-tax profit to recover to VND 22.3tn in 2026, representing growth of 14.2% YoY. While net interest margin (NIM) pressure is likely to persist in the near term, we expect this to be offset by resilient fee income growth (+14.4% YoY) and a significant decline in credit costs (-35.7% YoY), supporting overall earnings normalization.

Attractive valuation relative to fundamentals: ACB is currently trading at 1.07x 2026E P/B, materially below its long-term historical average of around 1.5x. In our view, the current valuation already reflects the weak earnings growth seen during 2024–2025. As profit growth is expected to return to double digits in 2026, we believe the stock offers meaningful re-rating potential.

As POW’s share price has risen 10% since our previous update, we downgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from BUY) while maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 16,000/share, implying an upside of 11%.

Investment thesis

Domestic gas-fired generation should remain a stable pillar of Vietnam’s power supply in 2026, supported by the return of El Niño conditions. In contrast, alternative power sources remain either weather-dependent or reliant on imported inputs.

The Nhon Trach 3&4 project provides a stronger earnings foundation, having secured minimum contracted output (Qc) equivalent to approximately 65% of its multi-year average generation level.

Following the share price correction from its end-March 2026 peak, we upgrade HDG to OUTPERFORM (from Market Perform), with a revised 12-month target price of VND 29,000/share (previously VND 31,300), implying 13% upside. The lower TP reflects more conservative assumptions for the Infra 1 power plant and delays in sales recognition at the Hado Green Lane project.

Short-term earnings drag, long-term normalization: HDG recorded a VND 193bn provision expense in 1Q26 related to potential retroactive adjustments at the Infra 1 plant. This reflects a prudent stance amid evolving regulatory guidance from EVN. We view these charges as non-recurring, as they are limited to the period between COD and receipt of the Completion Acceptance Certificate (CCA).

Emerging growth drivers: Earnings recovery is expected to be supported by (i) renewed sales momentum at Hado Charm Villas (after muted activity in 2025), and (ii) commissioning of the La Trong plant, targeted for 3Q26.

Reduced FX risk: The conversion of EUR-denominated debt at the 7A wind power project into VND has lowered foreign exchange exposure, improving balance sheet resilience.

We raise our SOTP based 12 month target price to VND30,000 from VND25,300, underpinned by a sharp improvement in earnings outlook and a sustained uptrend in global urea prices. We forecast 2026 net income of VND2.25tn (+106% YoY), reflecting stronger margin dynamics and improved earnings visibility. With ~15% upside to our target price and following the recent share price correction, we call for OUTPERFORM rating on DPM. At 8.9x 2026E P/E, the stock trades at a compelling discount to its 10 year historical average of 15x, despite a structurally stronger margin profile.

Urea margin expansion supported by uninterrupted production operations and persistently elevated global urea prices.

Full year benefit from VAT rebates in 2026, following implementation of the revised VAT law effective July 2025.

Incremental financial income uplift from higher deposit rates, leveraging the company’s robust net cash position.

IDC is trading at 2026 forward multiples of 8.1x P/E and 2.1x P/B, below the sector averages of 11.9x and 1.83x, respectively. Alongside a portfolio of industrial parks strategically located across Northern and Southern hubs, with 1,441 hectares of leasable land available — ranking third among listed peers — the company offers an attractive dividend yield of 8.6% in 2026. We rate IDC as Outperform, with a 1-year TP of VND 52,900/share based on SOTP method, upside 15.8%.

Expanding its existing land bank, IDC has been approved to invest in three new industrial parks totaling 826.8 hectares — equivalent to 60% of IDC’s current business land bank — with operations expected to commence from late 2026. We believe IDC’s diversified IP portfolio, anchored in key Northern and Southern hubs, provides a solid foundation for long-term growth.

Leasing demand is expected to rebound in 2026. New lease area and MOUs in 2026 are projected to reach 100 hectares (+32% YoY), of which 35 hectares will come from contracts carried over from 2025. We believe that the stronger industrial park leasing demand in 2026 will be driven primarily by new tenants at upcoming parks such as Tan Phuoc 1 and Vinh Quang.

High dividend yield. IDC maintains a 40% dividend payout (including both cash and stock dividends), equivalent to a dividend yield of 8.6% in 2026.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of CTR, with 12-month target price of VND 96,000/share (from VND 102,000 previously), representing 12% upside. Our lower target price reflects our conservative stance amid the current high-interest rate environment.

Infrastructure-driven positioning. As the leading TowerCo, solar energy solutions and telecom construction contractor in Vietnam, CTR is well positioned from the national telecom and power infrastructure development outlook. Further, the company aims to expand its footprints in the residential construction, renewable power plants and overseas markets to both diversify revenue streams and ensure long-term growth sustainability.

Growth diversification: 2026 outlook will no longer be heavily reliant on the infrastructure leasing segment (as in 2024-2025), but will instead be supported by contributions from other segments, driven by 1) focus on BTS (base transceiver station) site-level efficiency, 2) ongoing expansion in Business-to-business (B2B) and Business-to-customer (B2C) and small-and-medium-sized-enterprises (SME) and 3) further penetration in overseas market (“Go Global”).