Company Report

We maintain our BUY rating on HPG and revise our 2026-end target price to VND 36,000/share (from VND 35,000/share) to reflect a stronger core earnings outlook, translating to 27.7% upside from the current price, based on a combination of P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple. The stock remains our favorite choice for an infrastructure investment play and our top pick in Steel for 2026.

2026 is the first full year of operation for the Dung Quat 2 steel mill, with 9 mn tonnes of HRC capacity, as well as the first full year of anti-dumping duties on China HRC. Thus, substantial growth in both the top and bottom line (+40% YoY and 47% YoY for core business, respectively) is expected.

The government’s huge investment plan of VND 38 quadrillion over the next 10 years should boost demand, while competition from imports is limited by safeguarding and anti-dumping duties on key steel products, especially HRC and construction steel.

Implementation of an additional anti-dumping duty on wide-width HRC from 2Q 2026 should provide further protection for HPG’s key products and ensure a long-term favorable industry landscape.

We raise our 12-month target price for FRT to VND 178,000 per share (from VND 174,000), reflecting higher 2026 net income forecasts of VND 1.44 trillion (+46% YoY). With an implied upside of 17%, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. At the current price of VND 150,800 (as of April 20, 2026), FRT is trading at 24x 2026F P/E—representing a meaningful discount to its historical average of 40x.

Resilient pharmacy segment: Long Chau’s growth remains largely insulated from external geopolitical pressures, including the Middle East conflict, given the essential nature of pharmaceutical products.

Limited downside from ICT retail: While FPT Shop may see moderating earnings following peak demand, its relatively small contribution to consolidated earnings limits the overall impact on FRT.

Improving financial position: A steadily declining leverage profile enhances financial resilience and provides a buffer against potential interest rate increases.

Beneficiary of knock-on effects from Middle East disruptions. Supply-side shocks—particularly in fertilizers and logistics—are expected to tighten global agricultural markets and support pricing. PAN is well positioned to capture this upside, given its integrated exposure across the agri-food value chain.

Compelling valuation within the EM agri-food universe. PAN is trading at undemanding multiples relative to its growth outlook and return on equity potential. The market continues to price the company as a cyclical name, underappreciating its transition toward a structurally improving, integrated agri-food platform.

Upside from asset monetization and capital redeployment. The Bibica divestment, alongside potential monetization of real estate and land bank assets, offers scope for value unlocking. These initiatives should also enhance capital allocation efficiency and support a potential re-rating.

KBC is currently trading at 2026fw P/B of 1.2x, lower than its 5-year average of 1.4x. We maintain our Outperform rating for KBC, with a 1Y target price of VND39,500/share, implying 13% upside.

KBC significantly expanded its land bank in 2025 across both industrial park (IP) and residential developments, adding a total of 3,026ha. This expanded land portfolio underpins sustainable earnings growth over the coming years.

KBC is well positioned to benefit from FDI inflows, supported by its sizable industrial land bank, particularly in northern Vietnam where demand from high tech and electronics manufacturers remains strong.

We estimate a 35% YoY increase in core earnings, mainly supported by the remaining backlog of 158ha as of end-2025.

SZC is currently trading at 2026F multiples of 19.9x P/E and 2.0x P/B, above sector averages of 11.9x and 1.83x, respectively. Our rating is Market Perform, with a 12-month target price of VND32,300/share (SOTP-based), implying 10.4% upside.

Investment thesis

•           Short term headwinds. SZC faces near term pressure from lower leased area versus 2025, driven by the absence of major tenants. Contributions from residential real estate remain modest, limiting earnings visibility.

•           Medium to long term land bank advantage and margin strength. SZC retains a sizable land bank of more than 400 hectares available for lease, with 150 hectares already cleared. This provides a strong pipeline for future leasing. In addition, low compensation costs for land clearance allow SZC to sustain gross margins above 60%, reinforcing profitability.

•           Rental upside potential. Current rental rates are 10–18% below other industrial parks in Ba Ria–Vung Tau. With infrastructure connectivity significantly enhanced by the Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway, SZC is well positioned to capture rental price increases over time.

We maintain a MARKET PERFORM rating on MCH with a 12-month target price of VND 130,000, implying 7% downside. The stock is currently trading at a 2026F P/E of 24x, significantly above its 5-year historical average of 19x, indicating limited upside at current levels.

Investment thesis

•           Recovery in the traditional (general trade) distribution channel is expected to support near-term growth.

•           Attractive dividend policy, with a payout of 50% on par value, equivalent to an approximate 4% yield.

•           Valuation appears stretched relative to peers, with key comparables trading at lower multiples (e.g., SAB at 13x P/E and VNM at 14.6x P/E).

Following a correction of over 20% from its early March 2026 peak, we upgrade POW to BUY (from Market Perform) and raise our 12-month target price to VND 16,000/share (from VND 13,500), implying 23% upside. The higher valuation is primarily driven by a 1.7x upward revision to our 2026 NPATMI forecast, reflecting improved assumptions for non-mobilized contracted capacity (Qc) income from the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 project.

Investment Thesis

•           Domestic gas as a stabilizing anchor: Amid geopolitical uncertainties, domestically sourced natural gas is expected to provide the most reliable foundation for Vietnam’s power generation in 2026, supporting output from Nhon Trach 1, Nhon Trach 2, and Ca Mau 1 & 2 plants.

•           Favorable dynamics for Nhon Trach 3 & 4: Elevated LNG prices and potentially constrained LNG-fired generation may enable the plant to significantly narrow initial operating losses, enhancing earnings resilience in its first year.

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price to VND 53,000 (from VND 42,400), driven by a higher 2026F net income forecast of VND 3.3 tn (+72% YoY, from VND 2.43 tn). With 14% upside, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation. At 8x 2026E P/E, DCM trades at an attractive discount to its five-year historical average of 12x, despite improving earnings visibility and margin structure.

Investment thesis:

•           Margin expansion in the urea segment, supported by undisrupted production and elevated urea prices

•           Full year benefit from VAT rebates

•           Positive impact from deposit rate hikes, leveraging the company’s strong cash position

Investment Thesis

•           POR21 tariff moat restored. VHC secured a USD 0 /kg preliminary anti-dumping rate vs. USD 0.23–0.29/kg for peers: a 5-10% cost advantage at prevailing selling prices in the US market. Final determination is due June 2026.

•           Whitefish supply decline creates tailwind, following Barents Sea wild-caught cod quota cut 21% (to a three-decade low) and lower pollock supply expected. Pangasius is a direct substitution candidate in EU and US market. 2M26 revenue increased 11% YoY. Pangasius products sales increased +13% YoY, with US sales up 22% YoY (accounting for c.40% of pangasius sales).

•           We project 2026F revenue and NPAT of VND 13.4tn (+12% YoY) and 1.4tn (+3% YoY), respectively. At VND 57,400/share, VHC's 2026F P/E is 9x, in line with its five-year average of 9x. Given the 17% upside, we maintain our Outperform rating.

We upgrade our rating for PVT to OUTPERFORM with a target price of VND 26,200/share (23.6% upside), reflecting strong mid-term earnings potential, ongoing fleet expansion, and a favorable tanker market supported by elevated time charter and spot rates amid geopolitical tensions. We forecast FY2026 NPATMI of VND 1,278bn (+23% YoY), driven by higher charter rates, operating leverage from a young and expanding fleet, and sustained tight global tanker capacity. At VND 21,200 per share, PVT trades at 8.48x 2026F forward P/E, below its five-year average of 9x, and 1.01x 2026F forward P/B, below the 1.25x average.

Investment Thesis

Fleet expansion boosts revenue and margins: PVT’s fleet grew to 65 vessels (2.03mn DWT) in 2025, with six more units expected in 2026. Higher utilization and favorable TC rates generate incremental revenue with limited fixed-cost impact.

Geopolitical-driven tanker tightness supports rates: Strait of Hormuz disruptions, elevated war-risk premiums, and operator caution reduce active fleet availability, sustaining charter rates.

Young, modern fleet delivers competitive advantage: Newbuild deliveries and acquisitions position PVT to benefit from tanker replacement cycles, younger hulls (5–10 years vs global >15), and recovering trade volumes.

Disciplined reinvestment ensures long-term resilience: PVT balances fleet growth with financial discipline, preserving earnings sustainability and operational flexibility.

We upgrade our rating on GAS from UNDERPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 83,400/share (from VND 75,800), implying 4% upside from the current price of VND 80,500 (as of 23 Mar 2026). The higher target price reflects a 13% upward revision in our 2026 earnings forecast.

Investment Thesis: We expect earnings resilience in 2026 to be supported by improving natural gas gross profit margins and relatively stable domestic gas supply compared to LNG and LPG. Further, GAS benefits from more stable input pricing for dry gas, differentiating it from downstream petroleum distributors such as PLX, OIL, and refiners like BSR.

We maintain Outperform rating for TPB share with 12-month target price of VND 18,700/share (upside of 18.4%), presenting a target P/B of 0.9x. The forward 2026 P/B is 0.83x – under 2026 BVPS – marking a reasonable entry point while ROE maintains at 18%.

Investment thesis

Core earnings recovery: Despite a largely stable NIM, we expect ~13.6% credit growth to drive a 16.7% YoY increase in net interest income. At the same time, continued momentum in card-related fees and e-banking services should support a ~16.3% YoY expansion in fee income, reinforcing overall earnings growth

Relatively strong asset quality within tier-2 peers: Ongoing accelerated write-offs and restructuring efforts have been effective in containing NPL formation relative to peers in the tier-2 segment. In addition, a ~100% loss coverage ratio provides a reasonable buffer against potential volatility in a higher interest rate environment.

Compelling entry point: TPB is currently trading at ~0.83x 2026F P/B, below its book value, while delivering ROE above 18%, suggesting attractive risk-reward at current valuation levels. Its historical trough was 0.73x, which was reached during a period of heightened market volatility driven by both reciprocal tariff concerns and unfavorable news surrounding the temporary suspension of BCG-related bonds.

We lift our rating to BUY for HDB share with 12-month target price of VND 32,000/share (upside of 25%), implying a target P/B of 1.6x. The forward 2026 P/B of 1.33x with ROE above 20% presents a reasonable entry point. Strong credit growth momentum will be a backbone for HDB to maintain high profit growth and decent NPL ratios in the coming years.

Investment thesis

•           Market share expansion supported by a higher credit quota: As HDB is restructuring the weak bank (Vikki Bank), it has been granted a significantly higher credit quota than peers (35% annually from 2025 to 2027). This preferential quota provides a crucial opportunity for HDB to accelerate market share expansion despite the sector’s overall credit growth constraints.

•           Solid profit growth: Pretax profit is projected at VND 27.6 tn (+29.6% YoY), driven by strong NII (+27% YoY) thanks to strong credit growth (+30.3% YTD) while net fee income continued its growth at 40% from serving financial solutions for large corporations.

•           Favorable entry setup: Trading at 1.33x 2026F P/B, the stock offers an attractive entry level, supported by an industry best ROE of 25%—well above the 17.7% peer benchmark.