Company Report

The launch of The Gladia project is expected to be a key growth catalyst for Khang Dien in 2025–26, underpinning both sales value and earnings momentum. However, following the recent share price rally, much of this growth outlook has already been priced in. We therefore downgrade our rating from BUY to Market Perform, with a revised target price of VND 36,500 per share.

FY25–26 Outlook

Sales value is projected to reach VND 5,609bn (+9% YoY) in FY25 and VND 6,844bn (+22% YoY) in FY26, primarily supported by The Gladia.

Revenue is forecast at VND 5,442bn (+66% YoY) in FY25 and VND 5,982bn (+10% YoY) in FY26.

Net profit after tax and minority interests (NPAT-MI) is expected at VND 873bn (+8% YoY) in FY25 and VND 937bn (+7% YoY) in FY26, driven by contributions from The Privia and The Gladia.

Short-Term Outlook

Presales should improve in 2H25 following a stagnant 2024 and 1H25, with The Gladia launch scheduled for September. We expect earnings to grow 18% YoY in 2H25, supported by initial handovers at the project.

Long-Term Outlook

We maintain a constructive long-term view on Khang Dien, supported by its strong reputation as a developer, sizeable land bank in Ho Chi Minh City, proven project execution capabilities, and clear legal framework for its projects.

Following a stronger-than-anticipated performance in 2Q25, we have revised our 2025 net income forecast upward to VND 5.83 tn (+56% YoY, from VND 5.56 tn).

Looking ahead, we introduce our 2026 net income projection at VND 6.88 tn, marking an 18% YoY growth. This forecast is underpinned by:

• Moderate earnings growth in the ICT & Consumer Electronics (CE) segment, supported by the ongoing mobile phone replacement cycle and improved demand on 2% VAT deduction (from July 2025)
• Strong earnings momentum from the grocery segment on aggressive store network expansion and ongoing improved profitability of existing stores

We anticipate the grocery chain will play a pivotal role in driving MWG’s expansion, while ICT & CE will deliver steady but limited growth due to currently high penetration of modern trade (~80%).

MWG’s share price has increased by 21% over the past 4 months. We have rolled forward our valuation to 2026F (previously based on 2025F), resulting in a new SOTP-based target price of VND 87,000 per share (from VND 74,000). As such, we continue to reiterate our BUY recommendation, supported by a compelling 18.2% upside potential from the current market price.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 69,400/share (from VND 71,300/share), implying a 8% upside. The adjustment reflects an 11% downward revision to our 2025 NPATMI forecast, following weaker-than-expected 1H25 results.

1H25 performance: Strong hydropower, weak real estate and M&E

Earnings slightly missed our projections, as:

•           House sales at Light Square project showed little progress

•           Multiple M&E contracts delayed revenue recognition, as they remain under construction

•           Office leasing segment incurred higher-than-expected maintenance costs.

Hydropower recovery was the main driver of 48% YoY NPATMI growth, supported by favorable weather condition YoY, as 1H24 earnings was depressed by El Niño weather pattern.

2025 outlook: Softer 2H earnings ahead

•           We forecast NPATMI of VND 2.4 tn (+18% YoY).

•           This implies flat to slightly negative YoY growth in 2H25, as hydropower plants typically conserve water in the fourth quarter to ensure sufficient water availability for power generation in the following year.

2026 outlook:

•           We project revenue of VND 11.0 tn (+15% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+23% YoY),

•           Key drivers:

• Stronger M&E services revenue contribution
• Further revenue recognition from Light Square project
• Rising occupancy at E.town 6 office building
• Ongoing favorable hydrological conditions

VNM delivered a mixed set of 2Q25 results. Revenue recovered 29% QoQ (flat YoY), thanks to a rebound in domestic sales after restructuring, while international business stayed subdued against a high base. Management highlighted that distribution channels are now fully restored and operating more efficiently than before.

Gross margin improved QoQ to 42% but remained slightly below last year, reflecting the impact of elevated material prices (despite the 2.5% ASP hike). Net profit fell 7.7% YoY, missing our forecast by 6%, with net margin slipping to 15%. At the half-year mark, only 46% of revenue and 42% of profit targets have been achieved, underscoring the need for strong 2H execution to meet guidance.

We are near-term cautious due to the weak 1H25 performance, margin compression, and a still-fragile GT channel (tax reforms impacting small household businesses). From 2026, we expect stronger growth driven by new category ramp-up and a recovery in consumer confidence, underpinned by higher GDP growth. We maintain our 2025 earnings forecast of VND 9.3tn (-2% YoY) but revise our 2026 earnings forecast upward to VND 9.5tn (+2.4% YoY). We downgrade our rating to MARKET PERFORM (from Outperform), given only 7% potential upside to our TP of VND 65,000/share.

We revise our recommendation on HDG from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM, reflecting recent share price appreciation. However, we raise our 12-month target price to VND 33,000/share (from VND 29,800), implying 4% upside. The higher target price is underpinned by a 20–30% increase in our NPAT forecasts for 2025–2027, following updated assumptions for the Hado Charm Villas project and inclusion of estimates related to La Trong hydropower project.

Strategic updates

•           HDG launched the third sales phase of Hado Charm Villas, reinforcing the visibility on earnings growth potential for 2025–2027.

•           The company expanded its hydropower portfolio with the acquisition of the La Trong project, enhancing the long-term growth and stable outlook of the electricity segment.

Outlook

•           2025: We forecast NPAT of VND 1.1 tn (+152% YoY), supported by hydropower recovery and initial revenue recognition from Hado Charm Villas Phase 3.

•           2026: We project revenue of VND 3.7 tn (+20% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1.7 tn (+51% YoY), driven by subsequent Hado Charm Villas sales launches and continued favorable hydrology conditions.

Sabeco’s 1H25 results showed a 17% YoY decline in net sales, though management explained like-for-like sales fell only 5%. External challenges included weak consumption, tax-driven disruption in traditional trade, and administrative restructuring across provinces. Despite top-line pressure, 2Q25 margins improved meaningfully - gross margin and operating margin rose by 380bps and 570bps, respectively, driven by production efficiency and SG&A discipline. Inventory levels were lower, reflecting a cautious procurement stance amid input cost risks. While rising aluminum costs and FX volatility remain key concerns, lower malted barley prices, 3-5% ASP increases, and SG&A cost control provide optimism for 2H25.

We revise down our 2025E revenue by 7% to reflect the consolidation effect of Sabibeco but maintain our earnings forecast. Our 2025E forecasts assume drops of 18% and 5% YoY in revenue and net profit, respectively. For 2026E, we forecast 3% YoY growth in both metrics. We revise our DCF/PER-based 12-month TP to VND55,000/share (from VND58,000), which offers 15% potential upside. As such, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating for the shares.

VHC delivered strong 2Q25 results, with net profit surging 54% YoY (+147% QoQ) to VND 523bn, despite stable revenue of VND 3.19tn. Gross margin expanded to 19.5% (from 15.0% in 2Q24), driven by lower feed ingredient costs (corn, soybean meal...), normalized raw fish and fingerling prices (fingerlings -35% YTD), and a reversal of COGS provisions. Net profit margin improved to 16.4% (from 10.6% in 2Q24) thanks to reduced freight rates and favorable FX movements. Pangasius exports increased by 4% YoY and 32% QoQ, led by stronger shipments to the US (+10% YoY) and EU (+8% YoY), which more than offset weaker demand from China. Overall, The US market remains resilient despite 10% tariff hikes during Q2, with pangasius maintaining cost competitiveness versus other white fish. Low domestic catfish inventories can further support US import demand.

We raise FY25-26 forecasts to reflect stronger margins and a more supportive demand outlook. FY25, net sales projected at VND 13.5tn (+7.7% YoY), net profit at VND 1.45tn (+11.0% YoY), driven by gross margin expansion and favorable FX conditions. FY26, net sales forecast at VND 14.9tn (+10.3% YoY), net profit at VND 1.58tn (+9.3% YoY).

At VND 62,300/share, VHC trades near its two-year average P/E of 9.6x. Our blended DCF and P/E valuation implies a 12-month target price of VND 70,000/share (11x forward P/E), representing 12% upside. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating, underpinned by margin tailwinds, and strong positioning in US  market.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on GAS, maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 71,900/share, implying a modest 4% upside. We roll forward our valuation horizon to 2026, and we revise our 2025 NPAT estimate up by nearly 10%, driven by a stronger-than-expected provision reversal in 2Q25.

1H25 performance: GAS delivered solid earnings beat in 1H25, primarily due to a VND 1.6 tn provision reversal in 2Q25, resulting in 27% YoY NPAT growth, despite revenue growth remaining in single digits. The tight global gas market supported domestic gas and LNG prices, benefiting the dry gas segment, amid falling crude oil/fuel oil (FO) prices.

2025 outlook: Following the substantial provision reversal, we forecast 5% YoY revenue growth, but 13% YoY NPAT increase for 2025.

2026 outlook: We anticipate that GAS will not repeat the same level of non-cash income seen in 2025. As a result, we project revenue to grow 10% to VND 119.2 tn (+10% YoY), while NPAT may decline 8% YoY to VND 11 tn. The top-line growth will be driven by increased LNG imports, particularly with the expected commissioning of Nhon Trach 3&4 project by end-2025. However, a potential cooling in LNG prices may temper margin expansion.

Following the recent share price correction, we upgrade our rating on FPT to OUTPERFORM (from Market Perform). With our valuation horizon rolled forward to 2026, we raise our 12-month SOTP-based target price to VND 124,200/share (from previous VND 114,800/share) (incorporating a 15% share dividend). This implies an 18% upside. Our 2025 NPAT forecast remains largely unchanged.

1H25 results: FPT reported top-line growth of 11% YoY in 1H25, moderating from 19% YoY in 2024, largely due to subdued global IT spending. This trend is echoed in the growth of signed contract value/revenue, which slowed to 5% YoY (vs. 13% YoY in 2024). Despite this, effective cost management and a 119% YoY surge in dividend income enabled FPT to deliver 20% YoY net profit growth, broadly in line with our expectations.

2025-2026 outlook: We anticipate moderate earnings momentum in 2H25, with net profit expected to grow 15%–16% YoY. The technology segment is likely to remain under pressure due to current weakness in signed contract value growth. However, the telecommunications (telecom) segment is expected to remain the key short-term earnings driver. For 2026, amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges, we project a 15% YoY revenue growth and 16% YoY increase in NPAT.

Strong 2Q25 Performance Driven by Real Estate and JV Contributions. BCM delivered robust 2Q25 results with revenue and NPATMI reaching VND 2.5 tn (+116% YoY) and VND 1.4 tn (+272% YoY), fueled by land leasing and transfers in Binh Duong, strong margins from industrial parks, and rising JV profits, particularly from VSIP. The company’s execution led to 1H25 net profit fulfilling 73% of its annual plan.

Accelerated Land Transfers in Binh Duong New City in 2025-2026. BCM is poised to unlock value from its residential portfolio by transferring 20 hectares to sub-developers, supported by rapid construction progress and infrastructure upgrades following the region’s administrative merger into Ho Chi Minh City.

Industrial Park Expansion and JV Contributions The launch of the expanded Bau Bang Industrial Park by year-end is expected to deliver VND 1.55 trillion in revenue, with healthy margins. Additionally, VSIP and BWID joint ventures are projected to contribute VND 2.1 trillion in profit (+7% YoY).

Investment view. BCM maintains its position as a leading industrial park developer in Vietnam, underpinned by a large, fully owned landbank and strong joint venture momentum—especially VSIP, which is projected to see double-digit growth through 2026. We reaffirm our OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of VND 89,900, offering a 29% upside, while keeping a close eye on cash flow pressure from JV capital demands.

With recent price weakness, we upgrade our rating on CTR to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM), with unchanged 12-month target price of VND 108,000/share, implying a 19.6% upside. Our net profit forecasts for 2025–2030 remain largely unchanged, supported by resilient fundamentals and emerging growth drivers.

1H25 results overview:

CTR posted 6% YoY revenue growth, while net profit after tax (NPAT) saw a double-digit increase, driven by a nearly threefold reduction in net financial losses. All business lines contributed positively, except for the operations segment. BTS construction progress slightly lagged behind projections. Notably, CTR is actively exploring renewable energy investment opportunities, which could enhance future earnings.

2025 outlook:

We forecast revenue and NPAT of VND 13.4 tn (+6% YoY) and VND 580 bn (+8% YoY).

Following 1H25 results, we made a minor downward revision to revenue, while NPAT projections remain nearly unchanged.

IMP reported robust revenue and NPAT growth of +22% and 37% YoY, respectively, driven by strong performance in both ETC (+24% YoY) and OTC (+32% YoY) segments. Hospital restocking supported ETC, while retail recovery boosted OTC. Faciility utilization is estimated at 63% compared to 55% at beginning of the year. Gross margin rose 60bps QoQ to 40.1% thanks to stable API prices and better cost control. 1H25 revenue and pretax profit achieved 46% and 43% of FY targets, respectively, keeping the company on track.

IMP’s outlook remains steady, with growth supported by an expanding SKU portfolio, a strong push in OTC, and rising market share in Tier 1&2 hospital tenders. Upcoming regulations (e.g., mandatory e-prescriptions, stricter drug quality controls) will benefit high-quality players like IMP.

As a result, we maintain our forecasts with 2025F net sales of VND 2.54 tn (+15% YoY) but increase our NPAT forecast to VND 401 bn (+25% YoY; from VND 373bn). We also introduce our 2026 forecast for revenue and NPAT of VND 2.89 tn (+13% YoY) and VND 486 bn (+21% YoY), respectively.

Our updated target price is VND 58,000/share (from 45,000/share), valuing IMP at a 2026F PE of 18.3x, derived from a blended DCF and relative P/E approach. With the stock currently trading at VND 50,500/share, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares with potential upside of 15%.

Earnings Recap: DHC (Dong Hai Ben Tre) reported YoY growth in 2Q25 NPATMI, recovering from the low base of 2024. Net revenue reached VND 880 billion, down 13.4% YoY but up 3.5% YoY when excluding the VND 165 billion one-off sale in 2Q24. The recovery was driven by improved manufacturing activity, with limited disruption from the US tariff news and policy delays that briefly impacted Vietnam’s export production.

Cost Discipline and Margin Surge: Despite an 8.8% YoY increase in OCC input prices, DHC successfully maintained lean inventory levels in 1H25 and exercised tighter control over procurement through active paper trading management. These efforts helped lift gross profit margin to a two-year high of 15.2% in 2Q25—an impressive 4.4 percentage point increase YoY. We expect further margin upside in 3Q25, supported by low-cost inventory, a more stable export outlook, and improving average selling prices (ASP). Notably, a mandated closure of outdated paper mills in Northern Vietnam-representing roughly 20% of national capacity—may tighten supply and support ASPs in the near term.

Outlook and Forecasts: For 2025, we forecast net revenue of VND 3.6 trillion (-0.4% YoY) and net income of VND 276 billion (+13.9% YoY). In 2026, we project VND 3.7 trillion in revenue (+3.3% YoY) and VND 299 billion in net income (+8.2% YoY). Containerboard consumption (testliner and medium) is expected to reach 307 and 311 thousand tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Valuation and Investment View: DHC is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 10.7x—above its 5-year historical average of 10.3x—but looks more attractive on forward P/E multiples of 9.5x (2025) and 8.1x (2026). The stock’s P/B of 1.35x is also meaningfully below the 5-year average of 2.29x. Though a mid-sized player with just ~3% market share in Vietnam’s corrugated paper market, DHC is positioned for long-term margin and capacity expansion.

HT1 is well positioned to benefit from shifting demand to the South, its core market. The company maintains a strong brand presence with high product consistency. With demand increasingly concentrated in Southern projects, HT1’s scale and location give it a competitive edge. For 2H25, we expect stable pricing, improved input cost management, and volume growth to support continued earnings recovery. We revised FY25 forecasts to VND 7,987 bn in revenue (+8.5% YoY) and VND 258 bn in NPAT (+296% YoY), and FY26 to VND 8,691 bn in revenue and VND 316 bn in NPAT (+22.1% YoY).

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on HT1 and raise our target price to VND 15,700/share, based on a 6.0x EV/EBITDA target multiple, implying a 12.1% upside from current levels. HT1 is well-positioned to benefit from accelerating infrastructure disbursement and the recovery of the property market in southern Vietnam. The company boasts a long-standing brand reputation in the region and consistent product quality. Although competition in the domestic market remains intense due to a supply surplus-particularly in Northern and Central Vietnam-the pressure in the southern market is more subdued, thanks to lower capacity and rising demand.