Company Report

Recent positive developments surrounding NVL’s project status may act as a re-rating catalyst for MBB, potentially resolving the lingering overhang risk. In the first five months of 2025, MBB reported robust parent-level profit before tax (PBT) of VND 11.9 trillion, marking a 16% year-over-year increase. This performance was underpinned by solid year-to-date credit and deposit growth of 6% and 7%, respectively—closely aligned with our full-year consolidated forecast of VND 33.4 trillion (+16% YoY).

Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate continued strong growth of 18% YoY, driven by a strong credit expansion (+28% YoY), a slightly lower net interest margin (NIM) of 3.82%, and a reduced credit cost of 0.95%. As a result, return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain at 22%, positioning MBB as the second-highest among banks under our coverage.

Reflecting these positive dynamics, we revise our target price-to-book (P/B) multiple for MBB to 1.3x (up from 1.25x) and roll forward our valuation base to mid-2026. This adjustment yields a new 12-month target price of VND 30,700 per share, up from VND 26,800. Since our Buy recommendation in April, the stock has appreciated by 23.8%. With a remaining upside potential of 18.5%, our rating on MBB is Outperform.

We upgrade our rating for NT2 from OUTPERFORM to BUY, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 25,000/share (from VND 21,500/share) (representing 33% upside). The upgrade is driven by our higher NPAT forecasts, now up 18% for 2025 and 65% for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected profit margins.

Despite softer top-line performance, earnings are poised to outperform, backed by solid contracted volumes: During April-May 2025, NT2 witnessed weaker-than-anticipated revenue and volume, reaching VND 1.4 tn (-7% YoY) and 554 bn kWh (-25% YoY). Meanwhile, Qc will likely remain steady for the quarter (with 21% YoY growth), implying that NT2 might achieve a higher-than-expected 2Q25 NPAT. We estimate that it could achieve VND 200-250 bn (well above our previous estimate of VND 130-160 bn). Accordingly, we revise up earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026.

5M25 period saw a transition in the national power generation mix, with Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) favoring hydropower, which is more cost-efficient than thermal sources. Additionally, the recent 4.8% increase in EVN’s average electricity price is likely to boost its profitability in 1H25, strengthen the likelihood that EVN will recover forest environmental service fees for power plants, including NT2.

We reaffirm our Outperform rating on TCB shares and raise our 12-month target price to VND 36,400 (from VND 31,400), representing an 15% upside. This upward revision reflects our view that the anticipated IPO of TCBS could act as a significant revaluation catalyst for TCB’s investment portfolio.

We view this valuation adjustment as strategically important, given TCBS’s growing contribution to group earnings—accounting for approximately 8.5% to 17% of consolidated profit. TCBS continues to strengthen its position in the competitive securities market through its non-brokerage model, wealth management technology, and advanced digital platform.

Additionally, we anticipate a recovery in the real estate sector beginning in 2025, supported by easing regulatory constraints and a low-interest-rate environment. This should unlock pent-up supply and stimulate demand, providing a tailwind for TCB’s core earnings growth.

Finally, we believe that a clearly communicated IPO roadmap for TCBS could serve as a near-term catalyst, further enhancing investor sentiment and driving share price appreciation.

We expect the bank’s pretax profit to attain VND 31.5 tn (+14.5% YoY) in 2025 and VND 37.6 tn (+19.2% YoY) in 2026.

We downgrade our rating on GAS shares to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), despite raising our 12-month target price to VND 71,900 (from VND 65,300), implying an 10% potential upside. The revision reflects over 10% gain in share price since our last update. Our higher target price is driven by upward revisions to our 2025 earnings forecasts, primarily due to increased LPG volume assumptions and anticipated reversal of bad debt provisions.

1Q25 performance: GAS’s first-quarter 2025 results slightly exceeded our expectations, primarily due to marginally higher-than-anticipated LPG volumes. Despite the quarterly earnings growth, we estimate that dry gas volume declined by over 10% YoY, largely driven by reduced demand from electricity sector clients.

2025 management guidance: Management has issued conservative guidance for 2025, targeting total revenue of VND 74 trillion (-30% YoY) and net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 5.3 trillion (-50% YoY). However, preliminary results for the first five months of 2025 posted 9%–11% YoY growth in both revenue and profit. Notably, GAS has consistently outperformed its annual guidance over the past eight years.

Short-term strategy: To mitigate the impact of declining dry gas revenues, GAS is expanding its international presence, with a particular focus on the LNG and LPG segments.

Long-term strategy: The company remains committed to the exploration of new gas fields and continued investment in gas infrastructure as key drivers of long-term growth. In parallel, GAS is advancing green energy initiatives to support Vietnam’s transition toward a cleaner energy mix.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on IDC, with one-year target price of VND 50,100, implying a 16.5% upside, based on a Net Present Value (NPV) valuation approach for industrial parks, including the valuation of Tan Phuoc 1 Industrial Park.

2025 outlook: MOU Decline Poses Headwinds

We anticipate that IDC will face several challenges in 2025 due to a contraction in Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs), driven by: (1) Weakened Leasing Demand: Leasing activity has slowed compared to previous periods, primarily due to heightened uncertainties impacting FDI inflows; (2) Limited Land Availability: Key projects such as Phu My II IP and Phu My II Expansion IP, which account for approximately 40% of IDC’s annual leased area, currently lack large contiguous lease land (>30 ha per tenant); (3) Pricing Sensitivity: Tenants remain cautious on lease pricing, which is only 15%–18% lower than comparable industrial parks in Indonesia, limiting IDC’s pricing flexibility.

As a result, we forecast a 25% YoY decline in net profit after tax (NPAT) for 2025, underperforming the company’s guidance of a 13% YoY decline.

Dividend Outlook Remains Positive. We expect IDC to maintain its dividend payout at 35% of par value, translating to a dividend yield of 8.1% for 2025.

Growth Drivers from 2026 Onward. IDC is one of the largest industrial park developers in Vietnam, with 1,355 ha of remaining land, of which 445 ha of available leased land in Long An, Ba Ria Vung Tau, Thai Binh, and Ninh Binh province. Low compensation and clearance costs should enable IDC to maintain IP segment gross profit margins above 42% through 2025 and declining to 35% as new industrial parks begin operations from 2026. We expect IDICO Quang Vinh IP (in Hai Phong province) and Tan Phuoc 1 IP (in Tien Giang province), Phu Long (in Ninh Binh province) to drive growth between 2026 -2027.

We change our rating from Market Perform to Outperform for NLG, with a target price of VND 42,500 per share (reflecting a 15% upside). NLG is well-positioned to benefit from its land banks of 681 hectares and the market recovery in the southern Vietnam real estate market.

We expect Southgate project to remain a key driver for NLG’s presales value this year with further phases anticipated in the 2H2025, supported by ongoing infrastructure development and improving market sentiment in Long An market. In April, Nam Long recorded strong presales at Southgate project, achieving VND 1,911 bn from 59 villas in launched sub-zones The Aqua and Park Village. We estimate the presales value of Southgate in 2025F be VND 4.2 tn, accounting for 53% of NLG’ presales value in 2025. Our presales forecasts in 2025 and 2026 post a strong growth to VND 7.9tn (+51%YoY) and VND 9.9tn (+26%YoY) from Southgate, Izumi City, Can Tho, Mizuki Park and Akari City.

2025 earnings are forecasted to be VND 667 bn (+28.8%YoY) (i) 15% Izumi’s stake sale and (ii) property sales from Southgate, Izumi City, Can Tho. For FY26, with our expectation of relaunching of Izumi City during 2025, NLG achieves earnings of VND 676.2 bn, increasing +1.4% YoY and +54%YoY for core-earnings. 

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on NT2, maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 21,500/share, implying a 16% upside. Our net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company’s recovery trajectory following a low earnings base in 2024.

1Q25 performance: NT2’s 1Q25 results were in line with our expectations, reporting net profit of VND 37 billion, a significant turnaround from the VND 158 billion net loss in 1Q24. This improvement was primarily driven by a higher allocation of contracted volume (Qc).

Management guidance: NT2 projects a 26% YoY increase in power output and a 31% rise in core profit before tax (PBT) in 2025, excluding potential gains from foreign exchange (FX) loss compensation and forest environmental service fees (vs. our core PBT growth forecast of 199% YoY). We view this guidance as conservative, reflecting management’s caution amid uncertainties surrounding H2 2025 Qc allocations, gas price rise, payment delays from EVN, and ongoing gas supply constraints.

Strategic developments: NT2 is actively engaging with EVN/EPTC and PVN to incorporate provisions into the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) that would allow the use of LNG for power generation - an important step toward mitigating/resolve long-term gas supply risks.

Significant restructuring carried out, targeting low-growth General Trade (GT) channel. With domestic sales plateauing over the past five years, of which 70% came through the GT channel, management has taken some bold actions (as part of its 5-year restructuring plan). Changes in sales force and distribution, however, are likely to weigh on near-term results.

As a result, we lower our revenue and earnings for this year by 4% and 6%, respectively. We now expect VNM to report 2025E net revenue and NPAT of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), respectively. We also introduce our 2026E net revenue and NPAT of VND62.3tn (+2% YoY) and VND9.2tn (-1.2% YoY), respectively, reflecting modest growth, margin pressure, and higher SG&A.

We reaffirm our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of VNM, despite lowering our 12-month TP to VND65,000/share (from VND71,500/share), based on DCF methodology. While acknowledging the headwinds ahead, we expect earnings for 2H25E and beyond to be stronger compared to last year thanks to the effect of rebranding/restructuring and consumption downtrading. The recent share price weakness has left the shares with 18% potential upside to our new TP. The stock is trading at 2025E P/E of 14x, 1SD below its past-3-year average (16x), while offering a dividend yield of 7%.

VCB’s 1Q25 results were relatively soft but broadly in line with our expectations, with pre-tax profit reaching VND 10.9 tn (+1.3% YoY). Despite near-term moderation, the bank continues to exhibit prudent risk management and maintains strong fundamentals amid ongoing external uncertainties. Its cautious approach to tariff risks and proactive monitoring of asset quality underpin our medium-term outlook.

We maintain a positive view on VCB, although we are mindful of potential medium-term headwinds. These include softer income from trade finance, pressure on credit quality, and some NIM compression as the bank could continue to extend support to clients in this challenging macro environment. That said, we believe that these risks are more likely to materialize from 2026 onward, rather than having a significant impact during 2025. For 2025, we forecast a pre-tax profit of VND 44.7 tn (+5.9% YoY), supported by credit growth of 13% and a modest 4 bp NIM contraction to 2.82%.

VCB shares are currently trading at a trailing P/B of 2.56x—below both its historical average of 3.2x and its 1-standard deviation threshold of 2.82x. This valuation likely reflects the bank’s conservative lending stance over the past two years, which has resulted in some market share loss relative to leading private-sector banks. However, we believe the 2025 forward P/B of 2.09x is undemanding, particularly given VCB’s systemic importance and industry-leading asset quality. With a 12-month target price of VND 69,000/share, implying 21% upside, we reiterate our Outperform rating on the stock.

We remain sanguine on VPB’s outlook and maintain our 2025 estimates. The bank has managed its funding cost well while maintaining robust credit growth, underpinned by a well-capitalized balance sheet and a strategic partnership with SMBC.

However, while the parent bank's performance would be solid, we maintain a cautious view on FeCredit, where asset quality risks likely will persist should trade tensions escalate. Our 2025 consolidated PBT forecast stands at VND 23.8 tn (+19% YoY), slightly below management’s target, reflecting a conservative view on the consumer finance business.

With an additional 15% upside potential, we recommend Outperform on VPB, with the 2025 target price of VND 21,000/share.

We lower our rating on FPT to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), as we trim our SOTP-based 12-month TP to VND 122,500/share (from VND 129,600), representing only 1% upside. We also note that FPT’s share price has increased by over 10% since our previous update. Our new target price reflects our 3% lower 2025F NPATMI, which is attributed to our 19% lower revenue estimate for the APAC (excl. Japan) market.

During April 2025, revenue and NPAT enjoyed 12% and 14% YoY growth: This reflects the impact of US tariff policy on the technology field, as global businesses have become more cautious on IT spending. In particular, the segment saw a modest 5% YoY PBT growth, while the telecom segment emerged as a new growth driver, with 25% YoY PBT growth.

2025 outlook: We expect that the current global macro environment should take time to witness significant improvements. To be conservative, we forecast 2025 revenue and NPATMI to achieve VND 72.6 tn (+15% YoY) and VND 9.3 tn (+18% YoY), respectively.

Upside risk: A better global macro environment could boost IT spending and support the technology segment.

Weaker sales amidst subdued sentiment and intense competition. Excluding the impact consolidation from Sabibeco, revenue still witnessed a decrease of 10% YoY (partly due to an early Tet, leaving more sales during 4Q24). With the fragile consumer confidence, management expects some downtrading activities during 2H25.

Gross margin improved primarily due to consolidation of Sabibeco. Management expects further improvement through improved hedging and operational efficiencies. Excluding one-off acquisition expenses, NPAT declined 12.7% YoY (compared to a reported -22% YoY).

For 2025, we expect that the environment will remain a challenge, as consumer spend tightens. As a result, we lower our 2025F forecast for net revenue and NPAT to VND28.2tn (-11% YoY) and VND4.3tn (-5% YoY), respectively. See Exhibit 1 for our assumptions.

On the other hand, SAB remains an attractive consumer stock with a healthy balance sheet and generous dividend (c.10% yield for 2025F), aided by its market dominance in mainstream beer, Vietnam’s GDP growth, and a growing middle-class. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of SAB along with our DCF/PER-based 12-month target price of VND58,000/share, which represents upside potential of 17%.

We upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) on the shares of CTR, with a 12-month target price of VND 102,400/share (from VND 135,000/share) (representing 15% upside). Our lower target price reflects our reduced projections for the 2026-2030 period NPAT CAGR, at between 9%-10% (from between 10%-15%), as we lower our 2025 revenue estimate for residential construction and the infrastructure leasing segments.

1Q25 results exhibited single-digit growth, at 4% and 5% YoY for revenue and NPAT, respectively, which was driven by the expansion in the number of BTS sites (infrastructure leasing) and revenue from solar energy solutions, M&E, and ICT (solutions & technical services). This result was well within our expectations.

2025 outlook: We forecast revenue and NPAT of VND 13.7 tn (+9% YoY) and VND 563 bn (+5% YoY), respectively, whereby the construction segment could enjoy higher growth from 2Q25 (vs. 2% YoY during 1Q25). Further, 1Q25 growth momentum in infrastructure leasing and solutions & technical services should continue near-term. Our overall projection is also similar to that of the company’s 2025 guidance.

2025-2030 development strategy: From 2025, CTR expects to continue its international market expansion strategy and maintaining domestic market strength, especially leadership in Vietnam TowerCo and operation businesses. The earnings CAGR guidance during this period is between 5%-10%. Additionally, we believe that the ongoing need of 5G infrastructure development in Vietnam should underpin CTR’s long-term BTS expansion.

HDB recorded a pretax profit of VND 5.4 tn (+33% YoY, or 31% QoQ), primarily driven by solid NFI (+105.5% YoY, +73% QoQ), strong FX and securities trading gains (+247% YoY, or 47% QoQ), strong other income (+552% YoY, or +22% QoQ), and a better CIR of 27.4% (vs. 31.7% in 1Q24). Credit costs (-55bps to 1.2%) did not rise with the NPL formation rate (+33bps QoQ to 0.81%), which was additive to bottom line growth during 1Q25. In general, HDB beat our projection for 1Q25, however, earnings were primarily supported by one-off items as the NIM significantly decreased (-72bps YoY).

For 2025, we maintain our PBT estimate of VND 20 tn (+20% YoY), fueled by solid NII (+16% YoY), NFI recovery (+14% YoY), and lighter credit costs. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on HDB’s shares with 1Y TP of VND 25,000/share, representing 18% upside.