Company Report

Rubber prices remain supportive, providing a solid earnings base in 2026. Natural rubber prices increased 32% YoY and 28% YTD as of May 2026, supported by weather-related supply disruptions in major producing countries, particularly Thailand, alongside firmer oil prices amid continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We forecast average rubber selling prices to increase 12% YoY to VND 55 million/ton in 2026. Consequently, rubber revenue is projected to reach VND 1.83 trillion (+12% YoY), while sales volume is expected to remain broadly stable at 28,200 tons (-1% YoY). Gross margin is forecast to expand to 29.7%, up 3.3 percentage points YoY.

2026 marks the peak earnings recognition period for industrial land conversion compensation. According to company disclosures, PHR expects to recognize compensation income related to rubber plantation conversion for major industrial park developments during 2026–2027, including VND 1,440 billion from the Thaco Mechanical & Supporting Industry Complex and VND 2,104 billion from the remaining compensation associated with the VSIP 3 project. We estimate that approximately VND 1.5 trillion of compensation income will be recognized in 2026 alone, driving profit before tax to VND 2,072 billion, equivalent to a 243% YoY increase. This represents the strongest earnings contribution from land conversion activities in the company’s recent history.

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. As of 1Q26, PHR held net cash of VND 2.37 trillion, equivalent to 25.3% of its current market capitalization. The company’s robust cash position not only strengthens financial flexibility but also supports higher financial income amid a rising interest rate environment.

At the current share price, HSG is trading at 2026F–2027F forward P/E multiples of 19.7x and 19.3x, respectively — a valuation that appears demanding relative to its modest earnings growth outlook over the next two years and the structurally competitive nature of the galvanized steel industry.

While 2H FY2026 earnings are expected to improve sequentially from 1H FY2026, the recovery largely reflects normalization from a weak base rather than a meaningful acceleration in growth. Meanwhile, the Hoa Sen Home expansion story remains in an investment phase and is still far from contributing materially to consolidated earnings.

Following our revised estimates, we lower our target price to VND 12,900/share (from VND 14,300/share), implying 2.8% upside from the current price, and maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG. In our view, the stock would require a more meaningful valuation discount to adequately reflect its declining earnings trajectory and execution risks.

At the current market price, PVD is trading at 2026F-2027F P/E forward of 14.2x and 12.2x respectively, while its forward P/B are 1.1x and 1.0x in the same period. Our revised DCF valuation points to new target price of VND 34,000/share (from VND 27,400/share) reflecting a longer industry cycle assumption and more aggressive investment stance from the management. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating for the share due to limited upside at the current price, and recommend to buy on dip.

Favorable industry outlook with prospect for a longer upcycle from more persistent demand for upstream development after higher supply uncertainty in the Middle East

Strong earnings growth in 2026 of 38% YoY thanks to contribution of 2 new jack-up rigs, stable day rate and utilization rate, PVD VI full year contribution and PVD I fully depreciated.

The management is taking a more aggressive stance in rig investment, with plan to invest 3 more rigs in the next 5 years.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation with a lower target price of VND 61,600/share than our previous report reflecting lower anticipated PBT in 2026 due to sudden resin price recovery. Our target price is derived from a 5-year sector average P/E of 13.1x, and  P/B ratio of 1.9x. NTP could be a defensive choice for stock investment based on fundamental strength and construction sector momentum.

Stable construction sector trajectory and backlogs boost revenue increment. We expect consolidated revenue could accelerate by +12.5%YoY to around VND 7.8tn, fuled from increasing ASP and the carry-over backlog. Total consumption could extend to nearly 148 thousand tons of pipe, rising by +10%YoY.

Capacity to increase the ASP corresponded to resin price recovery. This could preserve the revenue growth and mitigate the unpredictable input risk affecting net margin due to 100% import dependence.

Asset structures minimizes interest risk exposure. Maintaining large amounts of cash and short-term investment helps company less likely to expose high interest rates borrowing, and even benefited from favorable deposit rate generating net financial income to support the PBT of company. We estimate a 100bps increase in interest rate would translate into an additional VND 27 bn in financial income (~3% of 2026 PBT).    

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating for PLX, with a 12-month target price of VND 43,200/share (previously VND 41,300/share), representing 7% upside. Despite lowering our 2026 NPATMI assumption, we roll our valuation horizon forward to 2027 and incorporate a DCF approach alongside our P/E-based valuation.

Investment thesis: PLX as the leading petroleum player in Vietnam: Along with Dung Quat (BSR: HOSE) and Nghi Son (NSRP) refineries, PLX plays a key role in ensuring adequate petroleum supply, underpinned by its extensive storage infrastructure, broad partner network and large petrol station footprint.

1Q26 results: PLX recorded revenue growth (+45% YoY) but a negative NPATMI of -VND 763 bn (vs. a positive level of VND 133 bn in 1Q25).

Petroleum segment loss was the main driver, due to a significant inventory provision of over VND 6.3 tn, reflecting 1) elevated global petroleum price volatility in March and April 2026 and 2) PLX’s critical role in additional petroleum sourcing in March, amid sourcing difficulties from several other primary wholesalers.

Other segments remained stable operations, as respective overall PBT grew by 2% YoY.

We expect Vingroup to deliver strong earnings growth in FY26, supported primarily by robust property sales momentum at Vinhomes. Vinhomes’s FY26 presales value is forecasted to increase 28% YoY to VND 262.2tn, driven by ongoing projects and three new launches. Bulk sales transactions are expected to remain the primary contributor to total presales value.

VinFast is expected to maintain strong volume growth, with automobile sales projected at 270k units in 2026 (+37% YoY) and e-scooter sales reaching 750k units (+85% YoY). VinFast’s global EV expansion is likely to remain loss-making in the near term, acting as a key earnings headwind; however, if the proposed restructuring plan is approved, it could help improve VinFast’s earnings contribution through a more asset-light structure and reduced cost burden.

We forecast FY26 revenue of VND 455.9tn (+37% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 30.8tn (+171% YoY). FY26 earnings are expected to be driven mainly by (i) property sales recognition from Green Paradise, Ocean Park 2&3, Royal Island, Wonder City, and other projects; and (ii) VND 22tn of financial support from the Chairman. Excluding the Chairman’s support, FY26 NPAT is estimated at VND 13.9tn, compared with a loss of VND 7.3tn in FY25.

In our view, Vingroup’s earnings profile remains fundamentally anchored by its real estate business, supported by continued project launches and ongoing sales activity. Earnings visibility continues to depend largely on property sales performance — particularly bulk sales transactions — as well as potential asset divestments, one-off financial income, and recurring financial support from the Chairman.

We maintain an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on VIC. Beyond expectations surrounding Vietnam’s potential market upgrade, VIC has also emerged as a key beneficiary of the market’s renewed preference for large private-sector conglomerates (conglomerate premium in short), supported by increasingly favorable policy rhetoric toward the domestic private sector. The stock’s market capitalization has risen to approximately 28% of total HSX market capitalization, creating a significant technical rebalancing requirement across both institutional and retail portfolios. As many investors remain materially underweight relative to VIC’s benchmark representation, the need to increase allocations (from zero-weight) could continue to provide meaningful technical support and sustain incremental demand for the shares in the near term.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on ACB with a 12-month target price of VND 27,500/share, implying upside potential of 20.9%, alongside a projected dividend yield of approximately 3%. Our target valuation is based on a target P/B multiple of 1.3x, which remains below the bank’s historical average of approximately 1.5x.

Best-in-class asset quality remains a core strength: Asset quality continues to be one of ACB’s key investment pillars. The bank remains among the strongest performers in our coverage universe, with non-performing loans consistently maintained at around 1% and loan loss coverage sustained above 100%. This reflects ACB’s prudent underwriting standards and conservative provisioning approach, which we believe provide a meaningful buffer against ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

Earnings recovery expected to normalize in 2026: Following two years of below-trend earnings growth, we expect ACB’s pre-tax profit to recover to VND 22.3tn in 2026, representing growth of 14.2% YoY. While net interest margin (NIM) pressure is likely to persist in the near term, we expect this to be offset by resilient fee income growth (+14.4% YoY) and a significant decline in credit costs (-35.7% YoY), supporting overall earnings normalization.

Attractive valuation relative to fundamentals: ACB is currently trading at 1.07x 2026E P/B, materially below its long-term historical average of around 1.5x. In our view, the current valuation already reflects the weak earnings growth seen during 2024–2025. As profit growth is expected to return to double digits in 2026, we believe the stock offers meaningful re-rating potential.

Following the share price correction from its end-March 2026 peak, we upgrade HDG to OUTPERFORM (from Market Perform), with a revised 12-month target price of VND 29,000/share (previously VND 31,300), implying 13% upside. The lower TP reflects more conservative assumptions for the Infra 1 power plant and delays in sales recognition at the Hado Green Lane project.

Short-term earnings drag, long-term normalization: HDG recorded a VND 193bn provision expense in 1Q26 related to potential retroactive adjustments at the Infra 1 plant. This reflects a prudent stance amid evolving regulatory guidance from EVN. We view these charges as non-recurring, as they are limited to the period between COD and receipt of the Completion Acceptance Certificate (CCA).

Emerging growth drivers: Earnings recovery is expected to be supported by (i) renewed sales momentum at Hado Charm Villas (after muted activity in 2025), and (ii) commissioning of the La Trong plant, targeted for 3Q26.

Reduced FX risk: The conversion of EUR-denominated debt at the 7A wind power project into VND has lowered foreign exchange exposure, improving balance sheet resilience.

We raise our SOTP based 12 month target price to VND30,000 from VND25,300, underpinned by a sharp improvement in earnings outlook and a sustained uptrend in global urea prices. We forecast 2026 net income of VND2.25tn (+106% YoY), reflecting stronger margin dynamics and improved earnings visibility. With ~15% upside to our target price and following the recent share price correction, we call for OUTPERFORM rating on DPM. At 8.9x 2026E P/E, the stock trades at a compelling discount to its 10 year historical average of 15x, despite a structurally stronger margin profile.

Urea margin expansion supported by uninterrupted production operations and persistently elevated global urea prices.

Full year benefit from VAT rebates in 2026, following implementation of the revised VAT law effective July 2025.

Incremental financial income uplift from higher deposit rates, leveraging the company’s robust net cash position.

IDC is trading at 2026 forward multiples of 8.1x P/E and 2.1x P/B, below the sector averages of 11.9x and 1.83x, respectively. Alongside a portfolio of industrial parks strategically located across Northern and Southern hubs, with 1,441 hectares of leasable land available — ranking third among listed peers — the company offers an attractive dividend yield of 8.6% in 2026. We rate IDC as Outperform, with a 1-year TP of VND 52,900/share based on SOTP method, upside 15.8%.

Expanding its existing land bank, IDC has been approved to invest in three new industrial parks totaling 826.8 hectares — equivalent to 60% of IDC’s current business land bank — with operations expected to commence from late 2026. We believe IDC’s diversified IP portfolio, anchored in key Northern and Southern hubs, provides a solid foundation for long-term growth.

Leasing demand is expected to rebound in 2026. New lease area and MOUs in 2026 are projected to reach 100 hectares (+32% YoY), of which 35 hectares will come from contracts carried over from 2025. We believe that the stronger industrial park leasing demand in 2026 will be driven primarily by new tenants at upcoming parks such as Tan Phuoc 1 and Vinh Quang.

High dividend yield. IDC maintains a 40% dividend payout (including both cash and stock dividends), equivalent to a dividend yield of 8.6% in 2026.

While revising our 2026 net income forecast upward to VND 9.51 tn (+34% YoY, from VND 9.35 tn), we are lowering our SOTP-based 12-month target price to VND 110,000 (from VND 115,000) and adjusting our rating to OUTPERFORM (from BUY). This reflects a more cautious stance given the recent increase in interest rates. At 13.5x 2026E P/E, MWG continues to trade at an attractive discount to its five-year historical average of 17x.

Grocery profitability inflection point: The transition from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses from 2026 enhances the competitiveness of modern grocery retail.

ICT & CE recovery underway:  Replacement and upgrade demand, further fueled by price increase due to RAM and chip shortage

The IPO of DMX to unlock its fair value, expected in May 2026

We maintain our BUY rating on HPG and revise our 2026-end target price to VND 36,000/share (from VND 35,000/share) to reflect a stronger core earnings outlook, translating to 27.7% upside from the current price, based on a combination of P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple. The stock remains our favorite choice for an infrastructure investment play and our top pick in Steel for 2026.

2026 is the first full year of operation for the Dung Quat 2 steel mill, with 9 mn tonnes of HRC capacity, as well as the first full year of anti-dumping duties on China HRC. Thus, substantial growth in both the top and bottom line (+40% YoY and 47% YoY for core business, respectively) is expected.

The government’s huge investment plan of VND 38 quadrillion over the next 10 years should boost demand, while competition from imports is limited by safeguarding and anti-dumping duties on key steel products, especially HRC and construction steel.

Implementation of an additional anti-dumping duty on wide-width HRC from 2Q 2026 should provide further protection for HPG’s key products and ensure a long-term favorable industry landscape.

We reaffirm our BUY rating on FPT, with a revised 12-month TP of VND101,600/share (from VND110,400). The adjustment reflects lower target P/Es for the education segment at 16x (from 18x) and technology segment at 17x (from 18x) to better align with peers, while maintaining 14x for telecom. FPT is currently trading at 13x 2026E P/E, a meaningful discount to global peers at 17x, despite delivering higher EPS growth (15% vs. 11%), which we believe is not fully priced in.

Overseas market will be the key growth driver (especially in Japan), with long-term investments in strategic technologies. In 2025, signed contract value/signed revenue grew by 23% YoY (vs. 13% YoY in 2024).

Public sector digitalization adds medium-term optionality. FPT will collaborate with the Government in digital initiatives, providing a structural growth for domestic IT services.

AI transition: near-term neutral to positive. While investor concerns around AI disruption are valid, enterprise adoption remains gradual and requires system integration, customization, and data handling — areas where FPT is structurally positioned. At this stage, AI is more likely to support demand and enhance productivity than displace IT services.

SZC is currently trading at 2026F multiples of 19.9x P/E and 2.0x P/B, above sector averages of 11.9x and 1.83x, respectively. Our rating is Market Perform, with a 12-month target price of VND32,300/share (SOTP-based), implying 10.4% upside.

Investment thesis

•           Short term headwinds. SZC faces near term pressure from lower leased area versus 2025, driven by the absence of major tenants. Contributions from residential real estate remain modest, limiting earnings visibility.

•           Medium to long term land bank advantage and margin strength. SZC retains a sizable land bank of more than 400 hectares available for lease, with 150 hectares already cleared. This provides a strong pipeline for future leasing. In addition, low compensation costs for land clearance allow SZC to sustain gross margins above 60%, reinforcing profitability.

•           Rental upside potential. Current rental rates are 10–18% below other industrial parks in Ba Ria–Vung Tau. With infrastructure connectivity significantly enhanced by the Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway, SZC is well positioned to capture rental price increases over time.