Company Report

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price to VND 53,000 (from VND 42,400), driven by a higher 2026F net income forecast of VND 3.3 tn (+72% YoY, from VND 2.43 tn). With 14% upside, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation. At 8x 2026E P/E, DCM trades at an attractive discount to its five-year historical average of 12x, despite improving earnings visibility and margin structure.

Investment thesis:

•           Margin expansion in the urea segment, supported by undisrupted production and elevated urea prices

•           Full year benefit from VAT rebates

•           Positive impact from deposit rate hikes, leveraging the company’s strong cash position

Investment Thesis

•           POR21 tariff moat restored. VHC secured a USD 0 /kg preliminary anti-dumping rate vs. USD 0.23–0.29/kg for peers: a 5-10% cost advantage at prevailing selling prices in the US market. Final determination is due June 2026.

•           Whitefish supply decline creates tailwind, following Barents Sea wild-caught cod quota cut 21% (to a three-decade low) and lower pollock supply expected. Pangasius is a direct substitution candidate in EU and US market. 2M26 revenue increased 11% YoY. Pangasius products sales increased +13% YoY, with US sales up 22% YoY (accounting for c.40% of pangasius sales).

•           We project 2026F revenue and NPAT of VND 13.4tn (+12% YoY) and 1.4tn (+3% YoY), respectively. At VND 57,400/share, VHC's 2026F P/E is 9x, in line with its five-year average of 9x. Given the 17% upside, we maintain our Outperform rating.

We upgrade our rating on GAS from UNDERPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 83,400/share (from VND 75,800), implying 4% upside from the current price of VND 80,500 (as of 23 Mar 2026). The higher target price reflects a 13% upward revision in our 2026 earnings forecast.

Investment Thesis: We expect earnings resilience in 2026 to be supported by improving natural gas gross profit margins and relatively stable domestic gas supply compared to LNG and LPG. Further, GAS benefits from more stable input pricing for dry gas, differentiating it from downstream petroleum distributors such as PLX, OIL, and refiners like BSR.

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price for MSN to VND 107,000 per share (implying 36% upside; previously VND 98,700), reflecting an upward revision to our 2026F net income forecast to VND 9.58 trillion (+42% YoY). Accordingly, we upgrade the stock to a BUY (from OUTPERFORM) recommendation. At 17.9x 2026E P/E, MSN now trades at a materially more attractive valuation relative to the ~75x multiple observed post the WinCommerce acquisition.

Investment Thesis

•           WinCommerce (WCM): Positioned to benefit from the transition from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses, accelerating the shift toward modern trade.

•           Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR): Rising tungsten prices are expected to support non-core earnings growth in 2026.

•           Market upgrade catalyst: MSN stands to benefit from Vietnam’s potential reclassification to Emerging Market status by FTSE, which could drive incremental capital inflows.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating with a target price of VND 62,400/share, based on a blended P/E and P/B valuation framework versus sector averages of 11x and 2.4x.

Catalyst:

•           Construction industry trajectory and solid backlogs sustain revenue growth. We expect NTP’s demand to sustain growth through 2026–2027, driven primarily by the continued expansion of construction activity - including public investment projects, social and commercial housing—and reinforced by ongoing momentum across construction segments.

•           PVC storage supports margin growth in 1H25. PVC price bottomed in 2025 and is expected to increase in 2026, since China terminates the 13% export tax for resin, and the resin production reduces due to non-suffered manufacturers. However, NTP had actively stored the input ingredients, as inventory increased by +43%YoY, equivalent to 6-month production.

•           Healthy asset structure minimizes risk and opens for income growth: Company owns no long-term debt and a net cash-to-assets ratio of 28%. In an environment of expected interest rate hikes in 2026, we estimate that a 100bps increase in rates would translate into an additional VND 30 billion in financial income.

We reaffirm our BUY rating on VCB shares with 12-month TP of VND84,900 based on a 2026E P/B of 2.7x (–1SD vs. past-5-year average). After two years of subdued growth, we expect 2026 to mark a clear earnings re-acceleration (+15.6% YoY), supported by credit normalization and gradual margin recovery.

Investment thesis

•           Earnings trough likely behind us. The 2024–25 period was characterized by NIM compression and weaker fee income. We expect normalization in 2026, with credit growth at 14% and NIM improving modestly to 2.69% (+6bps YoY).

•           Best-in-class asset quality. NPL ratio at 0.58% and LLR at 259% remain strongest in the system, limiting provisioning downside. Retail NPLs improved to 0.7%, indicating recovery in borrower quality.

•           Franchise strength remains intact. VCB retains structural advantages in FDI banking, trade finance and FX settlement. Corporate deposits remain resilient (+14% YoY in 2025) which serves as a solid liquidity anchor.

•           Fee income remains upside optionality. We model 13% YoY growth in 2026, though execution remains gradual. Scale and customer depth leave room for medium-term improvement.

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price to VND 115,000 (from VND 97,700), implying 29% upside, driven by a higher 2026F net income forecast of VND 9.35tn (+32% YoY). We reiterate our BUY recommendation. At 14.2x 2026E P/E, MWG continues to trade at an attractive discount to its five-year historical average of 17x, despite improving earnings visibility and margin structure.

Investment Case

•           Bach Hoa Xanh (BHX): structural profitability inflection. The shift from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses improves formal grocery competitiveness. Management plans to accelerate network expansion (~1,000 new stores in 2026E) to secure long-term scale benefits.

•           ICT & CE: earnings recovery underway. Replacement and upgrade demand, together with tax relief measures, should support profit normalization following aggressive cost rationalization.

•           Value unlocking optionality. Planned IPOs of Dien May Xanh (expected 1H26) and Bach Hoa Xanh (targeted for 2028) represent potential medium- to long-term re-rating catalysts.

Gross margin expansion for 2026: While we highlighted this trend in our previous report, SAB’s parent company (ThaiBev’s) analyst meeting last week provided more details on ingredient price trends at the group level. ThaiBev’s management indicated malt prices (estimated 23-25% of COGS) are expected to decline by an additional double-digit percentage next year, following the steep decline this year. Rice-based ingredients have also fallen over 20% YTD. Aluminum costs are likewise expected to ease. These are mostly in-line with our expectations that SAB should benefit accordingly, as SAB procures some of its ingredients at the group level.

However, we expect only a modest industry recovery in 2026 while SAB still faces fierce competition and difficulty in the General Trade channel (new tax policy applied from 2026). We maintain 2026F revenue growth at 2% YoY (in line with consensus) but increase 2026F NPAT growth from VND 4.64tn (+2 YoY) to 4.74tn (+4% YoY, higher than consensus), supported by lower input costs. At the current price of VND51,900, SAB trades at 15x 2026F P/E and offers an 8% dividend yield.

Short-term outlook: For 4Q25, we estimate revenue to decline 11% YoY (due to Sabibeco consolidation effect) but with an 11% increase in NPAT (due to low comparison base from 4Q24). We expect 1Q26 earnings growth to follow driven by absence of one-off expense in 1Q25 from the Sabibeco consolidation.

We upgrade MBB to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) with a revised 12-month TP of VND 30,000, as we stay constructive on its long-term outlook supported by a robust deposit base, digital leadership, and payment edge, despite near-term asset quality headwinds from a handful of restructured exposures.

Investment thesis

•           Leading private-sector franchise with outsized growth potential. As Vietnam’s largest private bank by asset base, MBB is uniquely positioned to accelerate market share gains, particularly under the mandatory acquisition of MBV. We project credit growth of 30% in 2025 and 25% in 2026 — significantly outpacing sector averages.

•           Compelling growth-return dynamics. We forecast PBT to reach VND 32.1 tn in 2025 (+11.5% YoY) and VND 38.7 tn in 2026 (+20% YoY), supported by robust credit growth, improving fee income and writebacks. ROE is projected at 22% in 2026 — among the highest in the sector.

•           Structural advantages in a transitioning sector. MBB’s strong CASA base, leadership in digital banking and payments, and robust franchise across retail, SME & large corporate segments position the bank well to capture medium-term growth opportunities.

We revise up our SOTP-based 12 month TP to VND97,700 (22% upside potential), from VND87,000, on our higher 2026E net income (VND7.9tn, +19% YoY) and reiterate our BUY call. The 2026E P/E of 14.8x remains compelling vs. the past-5 year average of 17x.

Investment thesis

•           Grocery chain benefiting from the shift from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses. Aggressive expansion (1,000 new grocery stores in 2026E) of the grocery store network to secure long-term growth.

•           Mobile phone replacement/upgrade demand on top of tax relief likely to boost earnings in the ICT & CE segment.

•           Planned IPOs of Dienmayxanh and Bachhoaxanh (expected in 2026 and 2028) likely to unlock long-term value

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG, with revised target price of VND 18,500/share ~ 10% upside based on a combined P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.

At the current market price, HSG is trading at FY 2026 P/E forward of 13x and P/B forward of 0.88x, which is lower than its normalized 5Y average P/E of 16x.

However, with challenging industry landscape and limited 2026F earnings growth prospects, we only recommend to buy on dip.

Investment thesis

•           HSG is the leading galvanized steel sheet and steel pipe producer in Vietnam with 22% market share.

•           Domestic galvanized steel market is positively supported in the long-term by AD on China and South Korea import as well as in the medium-term by government expansionary policy.

•           The company is expanding into construction material retail with its Hoa Sen Home chain (at 148 stores at end 2025 and 300 stores target in 2030)

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and raise our target price to VND178,000/share (13% upside potential), to reflect improving 2025E PVC costs and sustained sales volume growth. Our TP is based on an unchanged target PER of 11x now applied to our 2026E EPS (from average 2025-26E).

Investment thesis

•           Robust fundamentals: we project 2026E NPATMI to grow 9% YoY, underpinned by 11% YoY sales volume growth and stable ASP (-0.5% YoY).

•           Cost and operational advantage: PVC prices remain structurally soft due to weak Chinese manufacturing demand, with only a modest rebound expected (+1.5% YoY).

•           Attractive shareholder returns: consistent cash dividend yield averaging c.10% pa.

Vinamilk delivered a stronger-than-expected 3Q25 performance with revenue of VND16.97tn (+9.1% YoY) and NPAT of VND2.51tn (+4.5% YoY), marking its first earnings recovery after four quarters of decline. The company achieved 72% of its revenue and 68% of profit targets for 2025, supported by robust exports, improving domestic demand, and disciplined cost management. Modern trade and company-owned stores grew at double-digit rates, offsetting the weaker general-trade channel.

Exports outperformed, with international sales up 32.6% YoY (+25.7% FX-neutral) to VND3.46tn, led by Cambodia. Export contribution reached 20.4% of 9M25 revenue, up 240bps YoY. Gross margin expanded 60bps YoY to 41.8%, aided by lower input costs and better operating leverage.

Vinamilk recorded a one-off associate loss from the Miraka Holding write-off but continues to optimize its portfolio. While 4Q25 is expected to benefit from stable raw material prices and continued export strength, a full domestic recovery hinges on general trade normalization and post-typhoon demand recovery.

We maintain our 2025 forecast which calls for revenue of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), with a 2026E NPAT of VND9.5tn (+2.6%). We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating, with a DCF/PER-based 12-month TP of VND65,000/share (14% upside; 7.5% dividend yield).

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with unchanged 12-month target price of VND 80,000/share (implying a 24% upside), as we do not revise overall 2026 earnings estimate significantly.

9M25 summary: Strong hydropower, new projects added into the investment pipeline

Earnings slightly exceeded our forecasts, due to provision reversal in solar power projects and slightly higher-than-expected occupancy level from the office buildings portfolio.

•           The hydropower performance was in line with our expectations, despite 3Q25 volume outperformance, placing a growth pressure for 2026.

•           REE obtained investment policy approval regarding V1-3 Phase 2 and V1-5 & V1-6 Phase 2 wind power projects (located in Vinh Long province), targeted to commence operation in 4Q26.

•           By end-3Q25, E.town 6 office building (E.town 6) achieved nearly 50% occupancy (vs. a modest level at end-2024).

•           As expected, M&E services witnessed a recovery (especially from 3Q25).

2025 earnings forecast: following 9M25 results, we increase NPATMI by 6%.

2026 outlook: We forecast revenue of VND 11.3 tn (+20% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+17% YoY).

3Q25 Profit Recovery from Last Year’s Low Base: In 9M2025, OIL reported revenue of VND 105.5 tn, up 11% YoY. PBT decreased 6% YoY to VND 460 bn, mainly due to a 34% decline in 1H2025 when global oil prices dropped sharply. However, in 3Q25 alone, PBT surged 219% YoY, showing a clear recovery from the weak base of Q3/2024.

Volume Growth Driven by COCO Store Expansion: During 9M2025, OIL’s total domestic fuel sales volume reached 4.15 million m³/tons, up 4% YoY. Sales through the COCO channel (company-owned, company-operated stores) rose 11% YoY to 1.0 million m³/tons, accounting for 24% of total domestic retail volume. As of September 2025, OIL had opened 80 new COCO stores and targets a total of 112 openings for the year. Consequently, the COCO network is expected to reach around 950 stations by year-end, up 13% compared to the beginning of the year.