Company Report

BID reported a 2021 profit before tax of VND13.6tn, and we raise our 12-month target price on BID to VND42,300 from VND41,100 (adjusted for dividends), based on an unchanged target PBR of 2.2x applied to our 2022E BVPS and assuming 5% in additional share issuance. With better-than expected safety indicators and with NPLs and LLCs at all-time highs of 0.98% and 219%, respectively, the CAR improved to nearly 9%. We believe that high provisioning in 2021 will reduce bad debt and help relax credit growth for 2022. We project pre-tax profit for 2022E at VND19.4tn (+42.4% YoY), primarily fueled by credit and deposit growth of 10% and 10.4% YoY, respectively, a NIM reduction of 12bps YoY, and a lower credit cost of 1.76%.  The capital raise plan set in 2020 is likely to be more favorable this year, when the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has taken on a milder form. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on the stock.

We reiterate our BUY rating on the shares of DGC, however, we are significantly raising our price target to VND 214,000 per share (from VND 190,000) - representing an ROI of 30%.  Our target price is based on PE of 11x. While yellow phosphorus prices likely will decline from their recent peak, we do estimate that the 2022 yellow phosphorous ASP average remain 20% higher than that of the 2021 average given the strong chipmaker demand. We hence raise our 2022 earnings estimate by 33%, to VND 3.71 tn (+47.6% YoY). As such, 2022 bottom-line is likely to reach another peak. 

In our view, the supply chain disruption could carry through into 2023 longer than we initially expected, due to a trifecta of factors: (i) the surge in Omicron cases and the potential for new variants; (ii) China’s zero-Covid policy; and (iii) rising tensions between Russia – Ukraine, which will exert more pressure on global trade. Additionally, new vessel deliveries in 2022 are limited to only 3.1% of the current fleet. Thus, we expect both international and domestic container shipping to perform well with favorable conditions through 2023.With six new vessels to be added to the fleet between 2022 – 2024, HAH is ambitiously expanding into the Intra-Asia market to take advantage of the favorable market environment. We believe that the company’s new services will be profitable, given advantages of their low-cost fleet (8 out of 14 vessels having been invested into at low cost). We estimate that HAH will maintain high earnings growth during 2022 and 2023, and revise our NPATMI forecast to VND 744 bn (+67% YoY, +12.7% from our previous forecast) and VND 902 bn (+21% YoY) respectively, translating to an EPS of VND 14,641 in 2022 and VND 17,742 in 2023. We reiterate our BUY rating for HAH, with a revised 1Y TP of VND 106,000/share (unchanged target P/E of 7x), implying a 28% upside.

We are upgrading our rating on the shares of STK from OUTPERFORM to BUY, and our 1Y target price of VND 70,300/share (+26% upside). Our upgrade reflects the improved recycled yarn to total revenue ratio to 54% in 2022, as sales volume has now begun to recover to pre-pandemic levels in 1Q22. In 2022, we expect the company to post net sales and net profit of VND 2.62 tn (+28% YoY) and VND 318 bn (+14.1% YoY) respectively. With respect to 2021, STK recorded a decline in net sales and gross profit margins during 4Q21 due to less recycled yarn in the total sales mix (37% in Q4 vs 57% in 1H21) given the continued labor shortage. Nevertheless, STK still hit its target of 50% of its sales comprised of recycled yarn for 2021.

We attended the MWG online analyst meeting, where management provided 2022 guidance of a 30% YoY increase in net income. As a result, we revise our 2022E revenue and net income to VND141.6tn (+15% YoY) and VND6.9tn (+40% YoY, -3.4% lower than our previous estimate). While we lower our SOTP-based 12-month target price to VND174,000 (from VND176,000), we are reiterating our BUY rating on the shares of MWG. The company did decide not to open BHX stores in 2022 and has instead opted to focus on improving the revenue of existing stores with the addition of SKUs and improving the quality of fresh food. Coupled with cost optimization measures, the grocery segment should break even sometime in late 2022. With respect to DMX and TGDD, a recovery in household income and market share gains should improve growth prospects. Downside risks: Possibility of store closures due to lockdown measures; the post-pandemic recovery in household income taking longer than expected.

PNJ continued to post solid results in Dec ’21, as net sales and net profit increased 29% and 43% YoY, respectively, due to pent-up demand for jewelry and gold bars. Overall, PNJ recorded net sales and net profit of VND 19.6 tn (+11.9% YoY) and VND 1 tn (-3.7% YoY), respectively, slightly ahead of SSI NPAT estimate of -5% YoY and consensus NPAT estimates of -8% YoY. The gross profit margin was -140 bps lower than the prior year, due to a higher proportion of gold bars as a percentage of sales and a lower GPM within the wholesale segment. For 2022, we forecast net sales and net profit to reach VND 23.6 tn (+20.3% YoY) and VND 1.42 tn (+37.4% YoY), respectively. Strong growth should be supported by new store openings and market share gains. Our 1Y target price for the shares of PNJ is VND 117,300/share (+13.5% upside), and we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

We are upgrading our rating on the shares of GAS from Market Perform to Outperform, reflecting our increased 12-month target price of 134,000/share (from VND 130,000/share) – implying 17% upside potential (based on a target P/E of 22x and DCF approach). Our optimism stems from (1) increasing our 2022E Brent oil price assumption to USD80/bbl (from previous assumption of USD75/bbl) and (2) a dry-gas volume recovery of 18.5% YoY to 8.5bcm, which is expected to be driven by strong demand recovery from power plants and increased gas volume sold to industrial users. As a result, we estimate that GAS’ parent company will report revenue of VND90tn (+17.5% YoY) and NPAT of VND11.6tn (+35.3% YoY) for 2022E.

Listing on the HOSE and a better than expected 4Q 2021 PBT should act as short-term catalysts. On back of recent government 5G guidance, this could support our view that 5G deployment could gradually occur beginning 2023. CTR trades at a FY22 and FY23 EV/EBITDA of 12.5x and 8.7x, respectively, compared to peer of 14.5x and 13.2x. Rolling over our DCF-based valuation to FY22, we raise our 1Y TP for the shares of CTR to VND 104,500 (+19%). We call for our Outperform rating.

We maintain our Market Perform rating on the shares of BVH and increase slightly our 1Y TP to VND 71,900/share (from VND 71,000). 3Q 2021 results were positive with improved underwriting profit. This was driven by an unprecedented low claim ratio given the higher level of non-reported incidents (lack of filing formal claims during the lockdown). BVH’s performance was in line with sector trends, as direct written premium decreased -4% YoY (to VND 9.3 tn) and PBT surged +85.4% YoY (to VND 543 bn). The claims and combined ratio improved to 26% and 102% (vs. 53% and 105% during 3Q 2020), respectively. We do expect a pullback in the shares for 4Q 2021 profit when the claim ratio returns to normal, and mathematical reserve expenses rise in-line with a recovery in NBP. As we anticipate a growth recovery in 2022, with pretax profit projected at VND 2.5 tn (+21.9% YoY), we would be buyers post-4Q 2021 result. Downside risk: A larger-than-expected decline in interest rates and VN government bond yields.Upside surprise: A stronger-than-expected uptick in VN government bond yields; SCIC divestment from BVH could create short-term positive sentiment.

HT1 recorded a before-tax loss of -51 bn VND in 3Q21, the first time since 2014. Revenue dropped by -48% YoY, as sales volume fell by 46% YoY due to the lockdown in 19 provinces in southern Vietnam from Jul to Sept. In addition, the increase in cost of raw materials, also had a negative impact on the company’s margin. Cumulatively, HT1 revenue and PBT posted at VND 5.04 tn (-12.4%YoY) and 375 bn (-35.9% YoY), respectively accomplishing 62% and 46% of annual guidance. Although we had previously expected and already priced into our estimates a tumble in 3Q21 earnings, we still revise our 2021 PBT forecast from 728 bn to VND 481 bn (-37% YoY), due to the high coal price.   However, we expect that business results will recover in 2022, with revenue and PBT increasing by 13% and 48% to VND 8 tn and 710 bn respectively on the back of the recovery in both sale volume and gross margin. At the current price, HT1 is trading at 2021 and 2022 P/E forwards of 28x and 19x, which is much higher than the historical 5-year average of 10x. We believe that the share price has more than reflected the potential earnings recovery in 2022. As a result, we maintain our Underperform rating for the stock, with a 1-year target of VND 17,500/share based on P/E and EV/EBITDA targets of 13x and 5.5x respectively. 

We reinitiate another BUY rating for HAX. From our recent call in May 2021, HAX share price has increased 45% and reached our previous target. Although there was an unexpected trough in 3Q21 due to nationwide lockdown during fourth wave pandemic, demand for Mercedes cars remains strong, and is quickly recovering in 4Q21. Regardless of short-term risk of another pandemic outbreak, we believe that HAX outlook is getting brighter with: (1) big outlet expansion in Mekong Delta region to spark new demand for Mercedes, (2) automobile demand to boom from 2021 trough, boosted by government incentive, (3) prolonged chip shortage in 2022 to continue benefit auto dealers. Thus, we upgrade our 1-yr target price for HAX to VND 37,500/share, equal to 30% upside from the current price on Nov 26th, plus an expected 5% dividend yield for 2022. We expected HAX total sales and net profit in FY22 to reach VND 6.9 tn (+24% YoY) and VND 228 bn (+138% YoY), respectively.

We maintain our Market Perform rating on the shares of MSN, despite raising our SOTP-based 12-month target price by 12% to VND 172,000/share. Our higher TP reflects subsidiary-related factors, including the: (1) re-rating of WCM due to improved profitability; (2) higher estimates for MML (meat business) and MCH due to improved gross and EBITDA margins; and (3) spin-off and full divestment of its feed business. In 2022, we forecast MSN to maintain strong growth momentum in core NPAT of 65% YoY, as we expect profitability to continue to improve at WCM, MML, and Techcombank. Positive catalysts over time: (1) corporate actions, such as sales of stake in subsidiary/ies or a private placement at the group level or the listing of TCX; and (2) improved performance within its various business units, especially retail and/or mining businesses. 

3Q21 PLX revenue increased 26% due to an increase in petroleum prices; however, PBT was just VND 112 bn – declining -90%YoY as nearly all company segments (especially petroleum, transport, and petrochemicals) were negatively impacted by lockdown measures. However, we expect that PLX is poised to recover in 4Q21 due to both pent-up demand and the increase in oil prices. Our 2021 PBT forecast is VND 4.2 tn (+200% YoY), assuming that domestic petroleum sales volume drops -7% YoY to 8.4 mn m3/tons. For 2022, we expect revenue and PBT to further increase 10% and 30% YoY, respectively, to VND 177 tn and 5.4 tn on the back of 9% growth in petroleum sales volume and the recovery in other segments. We reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares of PLX, as well as our target price of VND 67,000/share.

Net profits for HSG and NKG in the recent quarter fell from the peaks in 2Q21, but still posted tremendous growth on an YoY basis, at 108% for HSG and 634% for NKG. Revenue for both HSG and NKG increased dramatically by 89% and 123% YoY respectively, driven by strong export volume and increase in ASP. We expect the earnings of the companies can maintain solid in the coming quarter and post substantial growth on a YoY basis, as both HSG and NKG have secured large export orders for the next 3 months at high price. However, the profit in 2022 can post negative growth of 30-37% from the peak in 2021 due to the normalization in gross margin following the correction in global steel price. Since our last report, the stock price of HSG and NKG has increased by 34% and 85% to their twin peaks in Oct, before correcting back by around -24% due to profit taking of investors and concern of falling global steel price. The current valuation for both stocks is quite fair in our view, taking into account the potential earnings correction in the coming year. Based on 2022 EPS forecasts and the PE target of 7x, our 1-year target prices for HSG for NKG arrive at VND 41,100/share and 45,800/share respectively, reflecting an upside of 7% and 7.8% from the current price. Accordingly, we downgrade the rating for NKG and HSG to Market Perform from Buy and Outperform respectively. However, given solid earnings in the coming quarter on an YoY basis, there can be trading opportunity for short-term investors with high risk tolerance if the stock price experiences a further correction. 

FMC reported net sales of VND 1.6 tn (+0.3% YoY), and NPATMI of VND 56 bn (-19.6% YoY). NPATMI declined due to a combination of high shipping costs (+148% YoY) and the spin-off off its An San factory into a new subsidiary, Khang An Foods (KAF). As such, FMC completed 81% and 72% of its annual targets for net sales and PBT respectively. The company has reserved adequate materials for 4Q21 production and is unaffected by surging material prices, benefiting from improved ASP. FMC management believes that the company remains on track to meet (and even exceed) annual targets. The proposed private placement to C.P. Vietnam (11.11% of outstanding shares at VND 50k/share) will increase its stake in CP to 24.9% post-deal, and raise VND 327 bn for FMC’s capacity expansion. The shares of FMC have re-rated due to the company’s stable profit, which is quite rare in the volatile fishery industry. Our new target price for the shares of FMC is VND 61k/share (up from VND 41k/share), and implies upside of 22.7%. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.