Company Report

Upcoming Listing & Valuation

F88 is set to list 8.26 million shares on UPCoM on August 8, 2025, with a reference price of VND 634,900 per share. This pricing implies a market capitalization of approximately VND 5.2 trillion (USD 200 million), corresponding to a 2Q25 price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.7x and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.3x. The company’s profitability remains compelling, with a return on assets (ROA) of 9.6% and return on equity (ROE) of 27.5%.

Business Model & Growth Trajectory

Founded in 2013, F88 operates a scalable, collateral-backed lending model focused on financially underserved customer segments. The company leverages both physical distribution—via a nationwide network of 888 stores—and digital engagement through its proprietary platforms. F88 has delivered exceptional growth, with both loan book and revenue registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 77–79% between 2019 and 2025. Its core offerings include:

* Direct secured lending, primarily against motorbikes and automobiles; and

* Loan origination and servicing for CIMB Bank, underpinned by a buyback clause on non-performing loans.

Financial Performance & Outlook

In the first half of 2025, F88’s pre-tax profit surged 213% year-on-year to VND 321 billion, reaching 48% of its full-year target. For the full year, the company projects:

* 43% growth in loan portfolio

* 50% growth in pre-tax profit

Growth will be driven by network expansion, increased adoption of the MyF88 mobile application, and broader cross-selling of insurance and financial products across its customer base.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on GAS, maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 71,900/share, implying a modest 4% upside. We roll forward our valuation horizon to 2026, and we revise our 2025 NPAT estimate up by nearly 10%, driven by a stronger-than-expected provision reversal in 2Q25.

1H25 performance: GAS delivered solid earnings beat in 1H25, primarily due to a VND 1.6 tn provision reversal in 2Q25, resulting in 27% YoY NPAT growth, despite revenue growth remaining in single digits. The tight global gas market supported domestic gas and LNG prices, benefiting the dry gas segment, amid falling crude oil/fuel oil (FO) prices.

2025 outlook: Following the substantial provision reversal, we forecast 5% YoY revenue growth, but 13% YoY NPAT increase for 2025.

2026 outlook: We anticipate that GAS will not repeat the same level of non-cash income seen in 2025. As a result, we project revenue to grow 10% to VND 119.2 tn (+10% YoY), while NPAT may decline 8% YoY to VND 11 tn. The top-line growth will be driven by increased LNG imports, particularly with the expected commissioning of Nhon Trach 3&4 project by end-2025. However, a potential cooling in LNG prices may temper margin expansion.

Following the recent share price correction, we upgrade our rating on FPT to OUTPERFORM (from Market Perform). With our valuation horizon rolled forward to 2026, we raise our 12-month SOTP-based target price to VND 124,200/share (from previous VND 114,800/share) (incorporating a 15% share dividend). This implies an 18% upside. Our 2025 NPAT forecast remains largely unchanged.

1H25 results: FPT reported top-line growth of 11% YoY in 1H25, moderating from 19% YoY in 2024, largely due to subdued global IT spending. This trend is echoed in the growth of signed contract value/revenue, which slowed to 5% YoY (vs. 13% YoY in 2024). Despite this, effective cost management and a 119% YoY surge in dividend income enabled FPT to deliver 20% YoY net profit growth, broadly in line with our expectations.

2025-2026 outlook: We anticipate moderate earnings momentum in 2H25, with net profit expected to grow 15%–16% YoY. The technology segment is likely to remain under pressure due to current weakness in signed contract value growth. However, the telecommunications (telecom) segment is expected to remain the key short-term earnings driver. For 2026, amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges, we project a 15% YoY revenue growth and 16% YoY increase in NPAT.

Reiterate BUY rating with a revised 12-month TP of VND33,000/share (from VND27,900 adjusted for stock dividend), as we roll over our basis to mid-2026E (from 2025E) for our P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA targets. We maintain our 2025E revenue of VND171tn (+22% YoY) and NPAT of VND17.1tn (+42.5% YoY), translating to a net margin of 10%. As such, we expect 2H25E revenue of VND97tn (+40% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.5tn (+42% YoY).

In 2Q25, HPG reported impressive financial results, with bottom line coming in strong with NPAT of VND4.3tn (+28.5% YoY and 27.3% QoQ), in line with our expectation and market consensus.

Steel net margin improved healthily by 2.3pp to 10.3%, the highest level since 1Q21, from 8% in 1Q25 as well as 8% in 2Q24, thanks to lower input cost and higher selling prices.

Agriculture and Real Estate also contributed strongly to 2Q25 growth. Agriculture continued to show strength this quarter thanks to higher hog prices, leading to a 2Q25 NPAT of VND532bn (+136% YoY and 31% QoQ), while the Real Estate segment also posted strong NPAT of VND286bn (+360% YoY) even though revenue only came in at VND139bn (+4% YoY), thanks to a one-off gain from re-evaluation of land use rights fee.

Strong 2Q25 Performance Driven by Real Estate and JV Contributions. BCM delivered robust 2Q25 results with revenue and NPATMI reaching VND 2.5 tn (+116% YoY) and VND 1.4 tn (+272% YoY), fueled by land leasing and transfers in Binh Duong, strong margins from industrial parks, and rising JV profits, particularly from VSIP. The company’s execution led to 1H25 net profit fulfilling 73% of its annual plan.

Accelerated Land Transfers in Binh Duong New City in 2025-2026. BCM is poised to unlock value from its residential portfolio by transferring 20 hectares to sub-developers, supported by rapid construction progress and infrastructure upgrades following the region’s administrative merger into Ho Chi Minh City.

Industrial Park Expansion and JV Contributions The launch of the expanded Bau Bang Industrial Park by year-end is expected to deliver VND 1.55 trillion in revenue, with healthy margins. Additionally, VSIP and BWID joint ventures are projected to contribute VND 2.1 trillion in profit (+7% YoY).

Investment view. BCM maintains its position as a leading industrial park developer in Vietnam, underpinned by a large, fully owned landbank and strong joint venture momentum—especially VSIP, which is projected to see double-digit growth through 2026. We reaffirm our OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of VND 89,900, offering a 29% upside, while keeping a close eye on cash flow pressure from JV capital demands.

Earnings Recap: DHC (Dong Hai Ben Tre) reported YoY growth in 2Q25 NPATMI, recovering from the low base of 2024. Net revenue reached VND 880 billion, down 13.4% YoY but up 3.5% YoY when excluding the VND 165 billion one-off sale in 2Q24. The recovery was driven by improved manufacturing activity, with limited disruption from the US tariff news and policy delays that briefly impacted Vietnam’s export production.

Cost Discipline and Margin Surge: Despite an 8.8% YoY increase in OCC input prices, DHC successfully maintained lean inventory levels in 1H25 and exercised tighter control over procurement through active paper trading management. These efforts helped lift gross profit margin to a two-year high of 15.2% in 2Q25—an impressive 4.4 percentage point increase YoY. We expect further margin upside in 3Q25, supported by low-cost inventory, a more stable export outlook, and improving average selling prices (ASP). Notably, a mandated closure of outdated paper mills in Northern Vietnam-representing roughly 20% of national capacity—may tighten supply and support ASPs in the near term.

Outlook and Forecasts: For 2025, we forecast net revenue of VND 3.6 trillion (-0.4% YoY) and net income of VND 276 billion (+13.9% YoY). In 2026, we project VND 3.7 trillion in revenue (+3.3% YoY) and VND 299 billion in net income (+8.2% YoY). Containerboard consumption (testliner and medium) is expected to reach 307 and 311 thousand tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Valuation and Investment View: DHC is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 10.7x—above its 5-year historical average of 10.3x—but looks more attractive on forward P/E multiples of 9.5x (2025) and 8.1x (2026). The stock’s P/B of 1.35x is also meaningfully below the 5-year average of 2.29x. Though a mid-sized player with just ~3% market share in Vietnam’s corrugated paper market, DHC is positioned for long-term margin and capacity expansion.

HT1 is well positioned to benefit from shifting demand to the South, its core market. The company maintains a strong brand presence with high product consistency. With demand increasingly concentrated in Southern projects, HT1’s scale and location give it a competitive edge. For 2H25, we expect stable pricing, improved input cost management, and volume growth to support continued earnings recovery. We revised FY25 forecasts to VND 7,987 bn in revenue (+8.5% YoY) and VND 258 bn in NPAT (+296% YoY), and FY26 to VND 8,691 bn in revenue and VND 316 bn in NPAT (+22.1% YoY).

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on HT1 and raise our target price to VND 15,700/share, based on a 6.0x EV/EBITDA target multiple, implying a 12.1% upside from current levels. HT1 is well-positioned to benefit from accelerating infrastructure disbursement and the recovery of the property market in southern Vietnam. The company boasts a long-standing brand reputation in the region and consistent product quality. Although competition in the domestic market remains intense due to a supply surplus-particularly in Northern and Central Vietnam-the pressure in the southern market is more subdued, thanks to lower capacity and rising demand.

Strong 2Q25 performance enabled 1H25 cumulative earnings to exceed both the company’s full-year guidance and our previous forecast.

With national electricity demand projected to accelerate in 2H25, NT2 is well-positioned to benefit from increased mobilization by EVN.

Long-term concerns persist regarding domestic natural gas shortages. Approval of LNG usage remains a critical factor for NT2 to recover its high generation capacity.

We revise our rating on NT2 from BUY to OUTPERFORM, following a ~9% share price rise since our last update. Our 12-month target price remains unchanged, at VND 25,000/share. While we have raised our NPAT estimates for 2025-2026, we maintain a cautious stance due to ongoing risks related to domestic natural gas supply.

We upgrade our rating for NT2 from OUTPERFORM to BUY, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 25,000/share (from VND 21,500/share) (representing 33% upside). The upgrade is driven by our higher NPAT forecasts, now up 18% for 2025 and 65% for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected profit margins.

Despite softer top-line performance, earnings are poised to outperform, backed by solid contracted volumes: During April-May 2025, NT2 witnessed weaker-than-anticipated revenue and volume, reaching VND 1.4 tn (-7% YoY) and 554 bn kWh (-25% YoY). Meanwhile, Qc will likely remain steady for the quarter (with 21% YoY growth), implying that NT2 might achieve a higher-than-expected 2Q25 NPAT. We estimate that it could achieve VND 200-250 bn (well above our previous estimate of VND 130-160 bn). Accordingly, we revise up earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026.

5M25 period saw a transition in the national power generation mix, with Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) favoring hydropower, which is more cost-efficient than thermal sources. Additionally, the recent 4.8% increase in EVN’s average electricity price is likely to boost its profitability in 1H25, strengthen the likelihood that EVN will recover forest environmental service fees for power plants, including NT2.

VFS delivered 36,330 EVs for 1Q25, a decrease of 32% q/q and increase of 296% y/y.  Sales to related parties (including Xanh SM, FGF, and others) account for 21% of all Q1 deliveries. Year to date, VFS has delivered 44,700 EVs to the domestic market. Lower-priced VF3 ($13,000) and VF5 ($22,300) were the bestselling models, accounting for 68% of sales volume. The top 3 models (VF3, VF5, VF6) account for 80% of sales volume.

With its target of at least doubling sales volume recorded last year, which translates to around 200,000 cars for the year, the company is broadening product lineup into commercial vehicles and has begun taking pre-orders for the Green series, a dedicated lineup tailored for transportation use cases and introduced an electric school bus and an electric minivan model in May.

Based on Vietnam Registration data, VinFast market share of overall auto sales increased to nearly 40% in Q1’25 from approximately 20% last year. The company expects ASP to remain under USD 20,000/unit, with a lower-priced model contributing 50% to total sales volume. Most of the sales will originate from Asia, with North America and Europe contributing less than 2% of total sales.

SSI recently hosted a Property–Infrastructure Tour featuring leading companies across residential real estate, construction, and building materials, including VHM, KDH, NLG, NVL, PDR, CII, CRE, HBC, DPG, KSB, and ACG. Management teams expressed a broadly optimistic outlook, driven by the government’s public investment initiatives and ongoing efforts to resolve challenges in the real estate sector.

MSN’s 2025 earnings growth is expected to be fueled by continuous improvement in its core consumer-retail business, buttressed by its meat business given elevated pork prices and reduced losses in the non-core mining business. Notably, Winmart's grocery chain reached its breakeven point during 2024, demonstrating the efficiency of its business model. This milestone establishes a strong foundation to accelerate expansion of its store network, as the market continues to shift from traditional wet markets to modern trade grocery stores. Given the 1Q25 earnings, we believe that MSN will exceed base case earnings guidance for 2025. We forecast 2025 NPAT and NPAT-MI of MSN at VND 5.4 tn (+26% YoY, from VND 5.3 tn) and VND 2.7 tn (+36% YoY, from VND 2.8 tn).

MSN has implemented a corporate restructuring, resulting in an adjustment of ownership stakes in key subsidiaries. This strategic change simplifies its ownership structure and provides liquidity for exit by external investors in MSN’s unlisted subsidiaries (The CrownX and Masan Consumer Holdings). Following the change in corporate structure, MSN’s indirect ownership of MCH decreased from 67.4% to 66%, while its stake in WCM increased from 78.7% to 85.4% (via increased ownership in The CrownX). With a decrease in ownership by external shareholders at The CrownX, financial obligations associated with the CrownX put option are expected to ease. This reduction should help alleviate pressure on MSN's cash flow, providing greater financial flexibility.

Given MSN’s encouraging earnings growth outlook coupled with the reduced pressure on cash flow, we rate the shares as OUTPEFROM, but with a lower 1Y target price of VND 81,600/share (from VND 86,500/share).

We downgrade our rating on GAS shares to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), despite raising our 12-month target price to VND 71,900 (from VND 65,300), implying an 10% potential upside. The revision reflects over 10% gain in share price since our last update. Our higher target price is driven by upward revisions to our 2025 earnings forecasts, primarily due to increased LPG volume assumptions and anticipated reversal of bad debt provisions.

1Q25 performance: GAS’s first-quarter 2025 results slightly exceeded our expectations, primarily due to marginally higher-than-anticipated LPG volumes. Despite the quarterly earnings growth, we estimate that dry gas volume declined by over 10% YoY, largely driven by reduced demand from electricity sector clients.

2025 management guidance: Management has issued conservative guidance for 2025, targeting total revenue of VND 74 trillion (-30% YoY) and net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 5.3 trillion (-50% YoY). However, preliminary results for the first five months of 2025 posted 9%–11% YoY growth in both revenue and profit. Notably, GAS has consistently outperformed its annual guidance over the past eight years.

Short-term strategy: To mitigate the impact of declining dry gas revenues, GAS is expanding its international presence, with a particular focus on the LNG and LPG segments.

Long-term strategy: The company remains committed to the exploration of new gas fields and continued investment in gas infrastructure as key drivers of long-term growth. In parallel, GAS is advancing green energy initiatives to support Vietnam’s transition toward a cleaner energy mix.