Company Report

DPM’s 1Q25 was marked by a challenging operating environment, with PBT declining 22% YoY. This was largely driven by an unfavorable exchange rate and uneven quarterly SG&A allocation. However, we believe this softness is temporary and that the company is on the cusp of a meaningful earnings recovery.

Looking ahead, we expect a reversion to earnings growth beginning in 2Q25, supported by two key catalysts: a correction in global oil prices and the implementation of a new VAT regulation effective July 2025. The latter allows DPM to reclaim VAT on gas input costs—a structural shift that could significantly enhance profitability.

DPM’s robust balance sheet, with net cash accounting for 55% of its current market capitalization, provides a strong buffer against downside risks. This financial strength, combined with improving fundamentals, underpins our constructive view.

We forecast 2025E PBT at VND1.2tn (+83% YoY). Our new equally-weighted PE/PB/ EV/EBITDA-based 12-month TP is VND38,300 per share, implying a ROI of 21%, including a 6.4% dividend yield. We call for OUTPERFORM rating on DPM shares.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on IDC, with one-year target price of VND 50,100, implying a 16.5% upside, based on a Net Present Value (NPV) valuation approach for industrial parks, including the valuation of Tan Phuoc 1 Industrial Park.

2025 outlook: MOU Decline Poses Headwinds

We anticipate that IDC will face several challenges in 2025 due to a contraction in Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs), driven by: (1) Weakened Leasing Demand: Leasing activity has slowed compared to previous periods, primarily due to heightened uncertainties impacting FDI inflows; (2) Limited Land Availability: Key projects such as Phu My II IP and Phu My II Expansion IP, which account for approximately 40% of IDC’s annual leased area, currently lack large contiguous lease land (>30 ha per tenant); (3) Pricing Sensitivity: Tenants remain cautious on lease pricing, which is only 15%–18% lower than comparable industrial parks in Indonesia, limiting IDC’s pricing flexibility.

As a result, we forecast a 25% YoY decline in net profit after tax (NPAT) for 2025, underperforming the company’s guidance of a 13% YoY decline.

Dividend Outlook Remains Positive. We expect IDC to maintain its dividend payout at 35% of par value, translating to a dividend yield of 8.1% for 2025.

Growth Drivers from 2026 Onward. IDC is one of the largest industrial park developers in Vietnam, with 1,355 ha of remaining land, of which 445 ha of available leased land in Long An, Ba Ria Vung Tau, Thai Binh, and Ninh Binh province. Low compensation and clearance costs should enable IDC to maintain IP segment gross profit margins above 42% through 2025 and declining to 35% as new industrial parks begin operations from 2026. We expect IDICO Quang Vinh IP (in Hai Phong province) and Tan Phuoc 1 IP (in Tien Giang province), Phu Long (in Ninh Binh province) to drive growth between 2026 -2027.

Significant restructuring carried out, targeting low-growth General Trade (GT) channel. With domestic sales plateauing over the past five years, of which 70% came through the GT channel, management has taken some bold actions (as part of its 5-year restructuring plan). Changes in sales force and distribution, however, are likely to weigh on near-term results.

As a result, we lower our revenue and earnings for this year by 4% and 6%, respectively. We now expect VNM to report 2025E net revenue and NPAT of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), respectively. We also introduce our 2026E net revenue and NPAT of VND62.3tn (+2% YoY) and VND9.2tn (-1.2% YoY), respectively, reflecting modest growth, margin pressure, and higher SG&A.

We reaffirm our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of VNM, despite lowering our 12-month TP to VND65,000/share (from VND71,500/share), based on DCF methodology. While acknowledging the headwinds ahead, we expect earnings for 2H25E and beyond to be stronger compared to last year thanks to the effect of rebranding/restructuring and consumption downtrading. The recent share price weakness has left the shares with 18% potential upside to our new TP. The stock is trading at 2025E P/E of 14x, 1SD below its past-3-year average (16x), while offering a dividend yield of 7%.

We lower our rating on FPT to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), as we trim our SOTP-based 12-month TP to VND 122,500/share (from VND 129,600), representing only 1% upside. We also note that FPT’s share price has increased by over 10% since our previous update. Our new target price reflects our 3% lower 2025F NPATMI, which is attributed to our 19% lower revenue estimate for the APAC (excl. Japan) market.

During April 2025, revenue and NPAT enjoyed 12% and 14% YoY growth: This reflects the impact of US tariff policy on the technology field, as global businesses have become more cautious on IT spending. In particular, the segment saw a modest 5% YoY PBT growth, while the telecom segment emerged as a new growth driver, with 25% YoY PBT growth.

2025 outlook: We expect that the current global macro environment should take time to witness significant improvements. To be conservative, we forecast 2025 revenue and NPATMI to achieve VND 72.6 tn (+15% YoY) and VND 9.3 tn (+18% YoY), respectively.

Upside risk: A better global macro environment could boost IT spending and support the technology segment.

Weaker sales amidst subdued sentiment and intense competition. Excluding the impact consolidation from Sabibeco, revenue still witnessed a decrease of 10% YoY (partly due to an early Tet, leaving more sales during 4Q24). With the fragile consumer confidence, management expects some downtrading activities during 2H25.

Gross margin improved primarily due to consolidation of Sabibeco. Management expects further improvement through improved hedging and operational efficiencies. Excluding one-off acquisition expenses, NPAT declined 12.7% YoY (compared to a reported -22% YoY).

For 2025, we expect that the environment will remain a challenge, as consumer spend tightens. As a result, we lower our 2025F forecast for net revenue and NPAT to VND28.2tn (-11% YoY) and VND4.3tn (-5% YoY), respectively. See Exhibit 1 for our assumptions.

On the other hand, SAB remains an attractive consumer stock with a healthy balance sheet and generous dividend (c.10% yield for 2025F), aided by its market dominance in mainstream beer, Vietnam’s GDP growth, and a growing middle-class. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of SAB along with our DCF/PER-based 12-month target price of VND58,000/share, which represents upside potential of 17%.

Vinpearl is a prominent Vietnamese hospitality and tourism brand owned by Vingroup, the largest private enterprises in Vietnam. Established in 2001, Vinpearl operates a wide range of luxury resorts, hotels, amusement parks and entertainment complexes, and golf courses across Vietnam.

Vinpearl’s competitive advantage is underpinned by:

•           Benefits from strategic backing from Vingroup, which provides superior project management capabilities, brand equity, and access to a high-quality ecosystem.

•           Established market leadership: Vinpearl’s long track record in delivering large-scale resort and entertainment developments, combined with a diversified hotel portfolio and prime landbank, supports its market leadership in Vietnam’s tourism and hospitality sector.

•           Long-term growth potential: By expanding its portfolio of mega-clusters and improving efficiency, Vinpearl is well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth within Vietnam’s evolving tourism landscape.

Vinpearl’s strategy includes increasing hotel capacity by 40%, expanding amusement park area by 65%, and quadrupling the number of 18-hole golf courses by 2028. Income from property transfer segment is projected to be around 21.5tn for the 2025-2027 period, supporting robust earnings growth.

For 2025-2026, we assume continued growth in the hospitality segment, supported by increased international tourist arrivals—particularly from key markets such as China and South Korea and opening of VinWonders Vu Yen. However, a decline property sales and financial income relative to the prior year may lead to a decrease in both revenue and NPAT for 2025. As a result, we forecast Vinpearl to deliver 2025F revenue and NPAT of VND 13 tn (-8% YoY) and VND 1.68 tn (-34% YoY), respectively.  We forecast Vinpearl to deliver 2026F revenue and NPAT of VND 15.4 tn (+16% YoY) and VND 2.59 tn (+59% YoY), respectively.

MSN reported better-than-expected 1Q25 results, with revenue of VND 19 tn (flat YoY, +11% YoY LFL comparison), NPAT of VND 983 bn (+105% YoY), and NPATMI VND 394 bn (+277% YoY). Solid performance was achieved at all three core businesses (MCH, WCM and MML), while the loss from its non-core mining business (MSR) was substantially reduced. MSN incurred one-off expenses of VND 229 bn related to the Wineco and Mobicast goodwill write-offs, along with other non-operating activities. Net debt/EBITDA was maintained around 2.9x for the last three quarters, in line with company guidance. 

Investment view: MSN’s 2025 earnings growth is to be fueled by continuous improvement in the core consumer-retail business, buttressed by the outstanding performance of the meat business given elevated pork prices and reduced losses associated with the non-core mining business. Given the 1Q25 earnings result, we believe that MSN will be able to exceed base case earnings guidance for 2025.

HDB recorded a pretax profit of VND 5.4 tn (+33% YoY, or 31% QoQ), primarily driven by solid NFI (+105.5% YoY, +73% QoQ), strong FX and securities trading gains (+247% YoY, or 47% QoQ), strong other income (+552% YoY, or +22% QoQ), and a better CIR of 27.4% (vs. 31.7% in 1Q24). Credit costs (-55bps to 1.2%) did not rise with the NPL formation rate (+33bps QoQ to 0.81%), which was additive to bottom line growth during 1Q25. In general, HDB beat our projection for 1Q25, however, earnings were primarily supported by one-off items as the NIM significantly decreased (-72bps YoY).

For 2025, we maintain our PBT estimate of VND 20 tn (+20% YoY), fueled by solid NII (+16% YoY), NFI recovery (+14% YoY), and lighter credit costs. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on HDB’s shares with 1Y TP of VND 25,000/share, representing 18% upside.

Revenue and net profit during 1Q25 are estimated at VND37tn and VND3.3tn, respectively, providing strong growth of 22%YoY and 16% YoY reflective of substantial sales growth during March with the contribution of the first furnace of Dung Quat 2. HPG‘s construction steel, HRC and billet sales volume increased by 29% YoY to 2.4m tons in 1Q25.

2025 business plan: Consolidated revenue of VND170tn, up 21.4% YoY, and consolidated NPAT of VND15tn, up 25% YoY.

Progress of Dung Quat 2 project: Phase 1 (the first blast furnace) has commenced operation and contributed to the March result. The second furnace is expected to commence operation during September 2025. The company sees some margin improvement for the new furnaces, partially due to lower input costs and from reduced competition.

Railway track project: The high-quality railway track factory is expected to start construction in May in Dung Quat Complex and be completed during May 2027. The project would have a capex requirement of around VND14tn. Preliminary estimates of total steel demand for Vietnam railway projects are around 10m tons.

Reiterate BUY call with 12-month target price of VND33,500/share. We increase our NPAT forecast for 2025F and 2026F to VND17.1tn and VND22.2tn, respectively (up from VND15.3tn and VND21tn). This corresponds to YoY growth of 42.5% YoY and 29.4% YoY, and reflects lower input costs and reduced competition due to HRC AD duties on Chinese imports.

2025 revenue target is set at VND 930.8 billion (+6.6% YoY), net income is targeted to flat at VND 302 billion.

Net income in 1Q25 surged by 106% YoY to VND 134 bn due to revenue recognition from the Tripod contract.

Our rating on the shares of SZC is Market Perform, with a 1-year TP of VND 34,200/share (reduced from VND 43,200/share to reflect our adjustment of 2026 leased price and beyond).

AGM highlights: The company has set a conservative net income guidance of VND 3 trillion for 2025, which is flat year-over-year. This cautious outlook is attributed to a shortage of apatite ore and a longer-than-expected licensing process for expanding capacity at Mine Site 25. Consequently, we expect DGC to experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid.

2025 CAPEX Capital expenditures for 2025 will primarily focus on the construction of a Chlo-alkali plant in Nghi Son, which is anticipated to commence operations in Q2 2026. Once fully operational, this plant is projected to generate VND 2 trillion in revenue and VND 200 billion in net income annually, representing approximately 6% of the company's 2024 net income.

Impact of US reciprocal tariff: Exports to the US account for approximately 2% of DGC's total revenue and could be subject to a reciprocal tax of less than 46%, in addition to existing import duty. Given the relatively small contribution of the US market to DGC's overall revenue, the impact is expected to be marginal.

Earnings rebounded to positive growth in 4Q24, driven by the recovery in yellow phosphorus sellingprice. We anticipate that this earnings growth will continue into 2025, supported by favorable selling price, resilient sales volume growth across most product categories, and increased usage of in-house apatite ore. However, due to the current apatite ore shortage in Vietnam, DGC may experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid. As a result, we have revised our 2025 net income estimate to VND 3.5 trillion (a 14% year-over-year increase, down from our previous estimate of VND 4.3 trillion).

Short-term view: Short-term share price performance may face challenges due to significant selling pressure amid uncertainties surrounding the export outlook. However, this could present a strategic entry point for investors, as the company is projected to deliver robust earnings growth of 34% YoY in 2025 and decent longer term growth.

Long term view: Improvement in BHX earnings should be the main growth driver from 2026, while earnings growth of the ICT & CE chains will likely normalize after strong recovery during 2024. We estimate a 2026-2028F net income CAGR of between 15-20%.