Company Report

DPM’s 1Q25 was marked by a challenging operating environment, with PBT declining 22% YoY. This was largely driven by an unfavorable exchange rate and uneven quarterly SG&A allocation. However, we believe this softness is temporary and that the company is on the cusp of a meaningful earnings recovery.

Looking ahead, we expect a reversion to earnings growth beginning in 2Q25, supported by two key catalysts: a correction in global oil prices and the implementation of a new VAT regulation effective July 2025. The latter allows DPM to reclaim VAT on gas input costs—a structural shift that could significantly enhance profitability.

DPM’s robust balance sheet, with net cash accounting for 55% of its current market capitalization, provides a strong buffer against downside risks. This financial strength, combined with improving fundamentals, underpins our constructive view.

We forecast 2025E PBT at VND1.2tn (+83% YoY). Our new equally-weighted PE/PB/ EV/EBITDA-based 12-month TP is VND38,300 per share, implying a ROI of 21%, including a 6.4% dividend yield. We call for OUTPERFORM rating on DPM shares.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on IDC, with one-year target price of VND 50,100, implying a 16.5% upside, based on a Net Present Value (NPV) valuation approach for industrial parks, including the valuation of Tan Phuoc 1 Industrial Park.

2025 outlook: MOU Decline Poses Headwinds

We anticipate that IDC will face several challenges in 2025 due to a contraction in Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs), driven by: (1) Weakened Leasing Demand: Leasing activity has slowed compared to previous periods, primarily due to heightened uncertainties impacting FDI inflows; (2) Limited Land Availability: Key projects such as Phu My II IP and Phu My II Expansion IP, which account for approximately 40% of IDC’s annual leased area, currently lack large contiguous lease land (>30 ha per tenant); (3) Pricing Sensitivity: Tenants remain cautious on lease pricing, which is only 15%–18% lower than comparable industrial parks in Indonesia, limiting IDC’s pricing flexibility.

As a result, we forecast a 25% YoY decline in net profit after tax (NPAT) for 2025, underperforming the company’s guidance of a 13% YoY decline.

Dividend Outlook Remains Positive. We expect IDC to maintain its dividend payout at 35% of par value, translating to a dividend yield of 8.1% for 2025.

Growth Drivers from 2026 Onward. IDC is one of the largest industrial park developers in Vietnam, with 1,355 ha of remaining land, of which 445 ha of available leased land in Long An, Ba Ria Vung Tau, Thai Binh, and Ninh Binh province. Low compensation and clearance costs should enable IDC to maintain IP segment gross profit margins above 42% through 2025 and declining to 35% as new industrial parks begin operations from 2026. We expect IDICO Quang Vinh IP (in Hai Phong province) and Tan Phuoc 1 IP (in Tien Giang province), Phu Long (in Ninh Binh province) to drive growth between 2026 -2027.

We change our rating from Market Perform to Outperform for NLG, with a target price of VND 42,500 per share (reflecting a 15% upside). NLG is well-positioned to benefit from its land banks of 681 hectares and the market recovery in the southern Vietnam real estate market.

We expect Southgate project to remain a key driver for NLG’s presales value this year with further phases anticipated in the 2H2025, supported by ongoing infrastructure development and improving market sentiment in Long An market. In April, Nam Long recorded strong presales at Southgate project, achieving VND 1,911 bn from 59 villas in launched sub-zones The Aqua and Park Village. We estimate the presales value of Southgate in 2025F be VND 4.2 tn, accounting for 53% of NLG’ presales value in 2025. Our presales forecasts in 2025 and 2026 post a strong growth to VND 7.9tn (+51%YoY) and VND 9.9tn (+26%YoY) from Southgate, Izumi City, Can Tho, Mizuki Park and Akari City.

2025 earnings are forecasted to be VND 667 bn (+28.8%YoY) (i) 15% Izumi’s stake sale and (ii) property sales from Southgate, Izumi City, Can Tho. For FY26, with our expectation of relaunching of Izumi City during 2025, NLG achieves earnings of VND 676.2 bn, increasing +1.4% YoY and +54%YoY for core-earnings. 

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on NT2, maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 21,500/share, implying a 16% upside. Our net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company’s recovery trajectory following a low earnings base in 2024.

1Q25 performance: NT2’s 1Q25 results were in line with our expectations, reporting net profit of VND 37 billion, a significant turnaround from the VND 158 billion net loss in 1Q24. This improvement was primarily driven by a higher allocation of contracted volume (Qc).

Management guidance: NT2 projects a 26% YoY increase in power output and a 31% rise in core profit before tax (PBT) in 2025, excluding potential gains from foreign exchange (FX) loss compensation and forest environmental service fees (vs. our core PBT growth forecast of 199% YoY). We view this guidance as conservative, reflecting management’s caution amid uncertainties surrounding H2 2025 Qc allocations, gas price rise, payment delays from EVN, and ongoing gas supply constraints.

Strategic developments: NT2 is actively engaging with EVN/EPTC and PVN to incorporate provisions into the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) that would allow the use of LNG for power generation - an important step toward mitigating/resolve long-term gas supply risks.

Significant restructuring carried out, targeting low-growth General Trade (GT) channel. With domestic sales plateauing over the past five years, of which 70% came through the GT channel, management has taken some bold actions (as part of its 5-year restructuring plan). Changes in sales force and distribution, however, are likely to weigh on near-term results.

As a result, we lower our revenue and earnings for this year by 4% and 6%, respectively. We now expect VNM to report 2025E net revenue and NPAT of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), respectively. We also introduce our 2026E net revenue and NPAT of VND62.3tn (+2% YoY) and VND9.2tn (-1.2% YoY), respectively, reflecting modest growth, margin pressure, and higher SG&A.

We reaffirm our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of VNM, despite lowering our 12-month TP to VND65,000/share (from VND71,500/share), based on DCF methodology. While acknowledging the headwinds ahead, we expect earnings for 2H25E and beyond to be stronger compared to last year thanks to the effect of rebranding/restructuring and consumption downtrading. The recent share price weakness has left the shares with 18% potential upside to our new TP. The stock is trading at 2025E P/E of 14x, 1SD below its past-3-year average (16x), while offering a dividend yield of 7%.

We are upgrading the shares of PVS to OUTPERFORM with 1Y target of VND 33,000/share, as we increase our earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 14% and 8%, respectively. This reflects the booking of several large projects. 

We believe that the EPC segment will enjoy YoY growth of 122% YoY due to continued booking of large projects booking (Block B upstream, Orsted’s windfarm, et al), and that margin improvement too will be supportive of go forward earnings. Interestingly, PVS’ backlog is a significant USD 2.5 bn and additional large contract awards totaling USD 400 mn are likely over the near-term, likely from a domestic oil&gas project.

Our rating upgrade also reflects PVS’ rather robust net cash (Cash – ST & LT debt) per share position of VND 29,850/share at 1Q 2025, which provides significant downside protection. Consolidated revenue did reach VND 6 tn during 1Q25, up +62% YoY. However, were it not for the forex gains/losses and asset revaluation (VND 130 bn), 1Q 2025 PBT would have declined 66% YoY.

VCB’s 1Q25 results were relatively soft but broadly in line with our expectations, with pre-tax profit reaching VND 10.9 tn (+1.3% YoY). Despite near-term moderation, the bank continues to exhibit prudent risk management and maintains strong fundamentals amid ongoing external uncertainties. Its cautious approach to tariff risks and proactive monitoring of asset quality underpin our medium-term outlook.

We maintain a positive view on VCB, although we are mindful of potential medium-term headwinds. These include softer income from trade finance, pressure on credit quality, and some NIM compression as the bank could continue to extend support to clients in this challenging macro environment. That said, we believe that these risks are more likely to materialize from 2026 onward, rather than having a significant impact during 2025. For 2025, we forecast a pre-tax profit of VND 44.7 tn (+5.9% YoY), supported by credit growth of 13% and a modest 4 bp NIM contraction to 2.82%.

VCB shares are currently trading at a trailing P/B of 2.56x—below both its historical average of 3.2x and its 1-standard deviation threshold of 2.82x. This valuation likely reflects the bank’s conservative lending stance over the past two years, which has resulted in some market share loss relative to leading private-sector banks. However, we believe the 2025 forward P/B of 2.09x is undemanding, particularly given VCB’s systemic importance and industry-leading asset quality. With a 12-month target price of VND 69,000/share, implying 21% upside, we reiterate our Outperform rating on the stock.

We remain sanguine on VPB’s outlook and maintain our 2025 estimates. The bank has managed its funding cost well while maintaining robust credit growth, underpinned by a well-capitalized balance sheet and a strategic partnership with SMBC.

However, while the parent bank's performance would be solid, we maintain a cautious view on FeCredit, where asset quality risks likely will persist should trade tensions escalate. Our 2025 consolidated PBT forecast stands at VND 23.8 tn (+19% YoY), slightly below management’s target, reflecting a conservative view on the consumer finance business.

With an additional 15% upside potential, we recommend Outperform on VPB, with the 2025 target price of VND 21,000/share.

We lower our rating on FPT to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), as we trim our SOTP-based 12-month TP to VND 122,500/share (from VND 129,600), representing only 1% upside. We also note that FPT’s share price has increased by over 10% since our previous update. Our new target price reflects our 3% lower 2025F NPATMI, which is attributed to our 19% lower revenue estimate for the APAC (excl. Japan) market.

During April 2025, revenue and NPAT enjoyed 12% and 14% YoY growth: This reflects the impact of US tariff policy on the technology field, as global businesses have become more cautious on IT spending. In particular, the segment saw a modest 5% YoY PBT growth, while the telecom segment emerged as a new growth driver, with 25% YoY PBT growth.

2025 outlook: We expect that the current global macro environment should take time to witness significant improvements. To be conservative, we forecast 2025 revenue and NPATMI to achieve VND 72.6 tn (+15% YoY) and VND 9.3 tn (+18% YoY), respectively.

Upside risk: A better global macro environment could boost IT spending and support the technology segment.

Weaker sales amidst subdued sentiment and intense competition. Excluding the impact consolidation from Sabibeco, revenue still witnessed a decrease of 10% YoY (partly due to an early Tet, leaving more sales during 4Q24). With the fragile consumer confidence, management expects some downtrading activities during 2H25.

Gross margin improved primarily due to consolidation of Sabibeco. Management expects further improvement through improved hedging and operational efficiencies. Excluding one-off acquisition expenses, NPAT declined 12.7% YoY (compared to a reported -22% YoY).

For 2025, we expect that the environment will remain a challenge, as consumer spend tightens. As a result, we lower our 2025F forecast for net revenue and NPAT to VND28.2tn (-11% YoY) and VND4.3tn (-5% YoY), respectively. See Exhibit 1 for our assumptions.

On the other hand, SAB remains an attractive consumer stock with a healthy balance sheet and generous dividend (c.10% yield for 2025F), aided by its market dominance in mainstream beer, Vietnam’s GDP growth, and a growing middle-class. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of SAB along with our DCF/PER-based 12-month target price of VND58,000/share, which represents upside potential of 17%.

We reiterate our Outperform rating for STB shares with a 1Y TP of VND 47,600/share (from VND 41,900). We do take into account the potential provision reversal from the Phong Phu Industrial Park debt collection and the sale of the 32.5% stake locked at VAMC. Both could act as further catalysts to the shares.

Restructuring Completion as a Catalyst: 2025 is expected to be a pivotal year for STB as it concludes its restructuring program. The resolution of the 32.5% stake held at VAMC is expected to happen in 2H25, which could unlock new growth levels, including the ability to engage with strategic investors, resume dividends.

Earnings Growth Outlook: In 2025, STB is projected to achieve a pretax profit of VND 14.6 tn (+15% YoY), driven by 13.5% credit growth and a 10bps drop in credit cost to 0.28%. The bank plans to diversify its funding base, targeting 20% growth in medium- and long-term funding to reach VND 44 tn, as retail clients favor short-term deposits in a low-rate environment. Asset quality remains a priority, with VND 1 trillion in NPL write-offs stabilizing the NPL ratio at 2.4%. However, NIM is expected to compress by 16 bps to 3.56% due to competition and limited floating-rate mortgage exposure. Despite ongoing workforce restructuring, the CIR is likely to stay elevated at 48.5%.

Looking ahead to 2026, pretax profit is forecast to rise to VND 17.8 trillion (+21.5% YoY), supported by 14% credit growth, further credit cost improvement to 0.23%, and a modest NIM recovery to 3.6%. Asset quality is set to improve, with the NPL ratio declining to 2.1% following an aggressive cleanup of bad debt.

Vinpearl is a prominent Vietnamese hospitality and tourism brand owned by Vingroup, the largest private enterprises in Vietnam. Established in 2001, Vinpearl operates a wide range of luxury resorts, hotels, amusement parks and entertainment complexes, and golf courses across Vietnam.

Vinpearl’s competitive advantage is underpinned by:

•           Benefits from strategic backing from Vingroup, which provides superior project management capabilities, brand equity, and access to a high-quality ecosystem.

•           Established market leadership: Vinpearl’s long track record in delivering large-scale resort and entertainment developments, combined with a diversified hotel portfolio and prime landbank, supports its market leadership in Vietnam’s tourism and hospitality sector.

•           Long-term growth potential: By expanding its portfolio of mega-clusters and improving efficiency, Vinpearl is well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth within Vietnam’s evolving tourism landscape.

Vinpearl’s strategy includes increasing hotel capacity by 40%, expanding amusement park area by 65%, and quadrupling the number of 18-hole golf courses by 2028. Income from property transfer segment is projected to be around 21.5tn for the 2025-2027 period, supporting robust earnings growth.

For 2025-2026, we assume continued growth in the hospitality segment, supported by increased international tourist arrivals—particularly from key markets such as China and South Korea and opening of VinWonders Vu Yen. However, a decline property sales and financial income relative to the prior year may lead to a decrease in both revenue and NPAT for 2025. As a result, we forecast Vinpearl to deliver 2025F revenue and NPAT of VND 13 tn (-8% YoY) and VND 1.68 tn (-34% YoY), respectively.  We forecast Vinpearl to deliver 2026F revenue and NPAT of VND 15.4 tn (+16% YoY) and VND 2.59 tn (+59% YoY), respectively.

We upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) on the shares of CTR, with a 12-month target price of VND 102,400/share (from VND 135,000/share) (representing 15% upside). Our lower target price reflects our reduced projections for the 2026-2030 period NPAT CAGR, at between 9%-10% (from between 10%-15%), as we lower our 2025 revenue estimate for residential construction and the infrastructure leasing segments.

1Q25 results exhibited single-digit growth, at 4% and 5% YoY for revenue and NPAT, respectively, which was driven by the expansion in the number of BTS sites (infrastructure leasing) and revenue from solar energy solutions, M&E, and ICT (solutions & technical services). This result was well within our expectations.

2025 outlook: We forecast revenue and NPAT of VND 13.7 tn (+9% YoY) and VND 563 bn (+5% YoY), respectively, whereby the construction segment could enjoy higher growth from 2Q25 (vs. 2% YoY during 1Q25). Further, 1Q25 growth momentum in infrastructure leasing and solutions & technical services should continue near-term. Our overall projection is also similar to that of the company’s 2025 guidance.

2025-2030 development strategy: From 2025, CTR expects to continue its international market expansion strategy and maintaining domestic market strength, especially leadership in Vietnam TowerCo and operation businesses. The earnings CAGR guidance during this period is between 5%-10%. Additionally, we believe that the ongoing need of 5G infrastructure development in Vietnam should underpin CTR’s long-term BTS expansion.

MSN reported better-than-expected 1Q25 results, with revenue of VND 19 tn (flat YoY, +11% YoY LFL comparison), NPAT of VND 983 bn (+105% YoY), and NPATMI VND 394 bn (+277% YoY). Solid performance was achieved at all three core businesses (MCH, WCM and MML), while the loss from its non-core mining business (MSR) was substantially reduced. MSN incurred one-off expenses of VND 229 bn related to the Wineco and Mobicast goodwill write-offs, along with other non-operating activities. Net debt/EBITDA was maintained around 2.9x for the last three quarters, in line with company guidance. 

Investment view: MSN’s 2025 earnings growth is to be fueled by continuous improvement in the core consumer-retail business, buttressed by the outstanding performance of the meat business given elevated pork prices and reduced losses associated with the non-core mining business. Given the 1Q25 earnings result, we believe that MSN will be able to exceed base case earnings guidance for 2025.

Since our rating downgrade, MCH’s share price has declined 22%. At this stage, we believe that flattish net income growth for 2025 and the uncertainty of US tariffs may already be discounted into MCH’s share price. As such, with a much more reasonable valuation and long term growth potential, we are upgrading the shares of MCH to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) despite cutting our 1Y target price to VND 157,000/share (from VND 169,000/share). The migration of MCH shares to HOSE is expected sometime between 3Q25-1Q26, which would likely attract investor interest to the name. In addition, MCH has a decent cash dividend policy (60% on par for 2025, 5% dividend yield).

MCH's exposure to the U.S. market is minimal, with exports accounting for < 1% of total sales, which limits the direct impact of tariffs. Given MCH's strong product portfolio, consumer preferences may shift toward in-home consumption during periods of economic uncertainty, helping MCH to sustain earnings. However, broader economic repercussions (including weaker export activity and the potential decline in consumer spending) pose downside risk. In the event of an economic slowdown, MCH may opt to delay product launches, prioritizing cost management and market stability. Additionally, the premiumization trend could extend. These factors may weigh on earnings growth over the near-term. As a result, we trim our 2025 revenue and EBITDA estimates to account for the potential adverse effects of US tariffs. Moreover, the weaker-than-expected financial income during 1Q25 has led us to further reduce our estimates for the year. Our 2025 net income estimate is lowered to VND 7.9 tn (flat YoY, from VND 8.3 tn).