Company Report

HDB recorded a pretax profit of VND 5.4 tn (+33% YoY, or 31% QoQ), primarily driven by solid NFI (+105.5% YoY, +73% QoQ), strong FX and securities trading gains (+247% YoY, or 47% QoQ), strong other income (+552% YoY, or +22% QoQ), and a better CIR of 27.4% (vs. 31.7% in 1Q24). Credit costs (-55bps to 1.2%) did not rise with the NPL formation rate (+33bps QoQ to 0.81%), which was additive to bottom line growth during 1Q25. In general, HDB beat our projection for 1Q25, however, earnings were primarily supported by one-off items as the NIM significantly decreased (-72bps YoY).

For 2025, we maintain our PBT estimate of VND 20 tn (+20% YoY), fueled by solid NII (+16% YoY), NFI recovery (+14% YoY), and lighter credit costs. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on HDB’s shares with 1Y TP of VND 25,000/share, representing 18% upside.

Revenue and net profit during 1Q25 are estimated at VND37tn and VND3.3tn, respectively, providing strong growth of 22%YoY and 16% YoY reflective of substantial sales growth during March with the contribution of the first furnace of Dung Quat 2. HPG‘s construction steel, HRC and billet sales volume increased by 29% YoY to 2.4m tons in 1Q25.

2025 business plan: Consolidated revenue of VND170tn, up 21.4% YoY, and consolidated NPAT of VND15tn, up 25% YoY.

Progress of Dung Quat 2 project: Phase 1 (the first blast furnace) has commenced operation and contributed to the March result. The second furnace is expected to commence operation during September 2025. The company sees some margin improvement for the new furnaces, partially due to lower input costs and from reduced competition.

Railway track project: The high-quality railway track factory is expected to start construction in May in Dung Quat Complex and be completed during May 2027. The project would have a capex requirement of around VND14tn. Preliminary estimates of total steel demand for Vietnam railway projects are around 10m tons.

Reiterate BUY call with 12-month target price of VND33,500/share. We increase our NPAT forecast for 2025F and 2026F to VND17.1tn and VND22.2tn, respectively (up from VND15.3tn and VND21tn). This corresponds to YoY growth of 42.5% YoY and 29.4% YoY, and reflects lower input costs and reduced competition due to HRC AD duties on Chinese imports.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of FPT, with a 12-month target price of VND 129,600 (from VND 156,300/share to reflect the current uncertainty). We recommend “a buy on the dip” if the share price corrects further.

FPT upholds its previously announced 2025 revenue and PBT growth targets of 20% and 21% YoY respectively. However, management believes that potential macroeconomic risks and disruption to the global value chain (following the US tariff policy) could impose challenges for the company to stick to this guidance and maintain double-digit growth momentum in the upcoming years. Further, FPT expects to continue prioritizing key focus areas, including AI, semiconductor, automotive, digital transformation, and green transformation.

We lower our target P/E metrics for technology and education segments to 20x and the telecom segment to 14x. Such P/E levels are similar to that of peers, due to higher uncertainty over the medium term. Our previous respective P/E metrics for these segments are 25x, 23x and 17x.

2025 outlook: We expect revenue of VND 74.6 tn (+18% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 9.5 tn (+21% YoY), which will be driven primarily by the technology segment (nearly unchanged compared to our previous estimates).

2025 revenue target is set at VND 930.8 billion (+6.6% YoY), net income is targeted to flat at VND 302 billion.

Net income in 1Q25 surged by 106% YoY to VND 134 bn due to revenue recognition from the Tripod contract.

Our rating on the shares of SZC is Market Perform, with a 1-year TP of VND 34,200/share (reduced from VND 43,200/share to reflect our adjustment of 2026 leased price and beyond).

Net Revenue and NPAT Growth: The company targets a net revenue growth rate of -1% and a net profit after tax (NPAT) growth of +8% year-over-year (YoY) for 2025.

Margin Expansion and Management Optimism: Despite headwinds that pressure sector growth, SAB should see margin expansion in 2025. Management remains optimistic about long-term prospects.

Upgrade to OUTPERFORM from Market Perform: SAB’s current upside potential is 18% and dividend yield is approximately 10%.

Both revenue and PBT saw double-digit growth during 2024, supported by the acceleration of sales and improved cost control.

FOX’s respective targets for revenue and PBT during 2025 are VND 19.9 tn (+13.0% YoY) and VND 4.2 tn (+17.1% YoY). However, due to the most up-to-date tariff policy of the Trump administration, FOX is concerned that customers (especially business clients) may tighten their budget for IT services.

Long-term outlook includes opportunities and challenges. In which, ARPU growth is feasible in the future. Further, potential of satellite internet service could reshape the future of the global telecom industry. On the other hand, FOX management believes that the US reciprocal tariff policy might generate indirect impacts.

HHV's consolidated sales and net earnings are projected to reach VND 3,584 billion and VND 555 billion, respectively, representing year-over-year (YoY) increases of 8% and 12%.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model provides a one-year target price of VND 13,000 per share. We reiterate our BUY rating on HHV shares.

Despite a recent 20% drawdown in the stock price over the past five days due to market correction, HHV should not be significantly impacted by changes in US and other countries' tariff policies. We believe HHV stock presents a compelling opportunity.

AGM highlights: The company has set a conservative net income guidance of VND 3 trillion for 2025, which is flat year-over-year. This cautious outlook is attributed to a shortage of apatite ore and a longer-than-expected licensing process for expanding capacity at Mine Site 25. Consequently, we expect DGC to experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid.

2025 CAPEX Capital expenditures for 2025 will primarily focus on the construction of a Chlo-alkali plant in Nghi Son, which is anticipated to commence operations in Q2 2026. Once fully operational, this plant is projected to generate VND 2 trillion in revenue and VND 200 billion in net income annually, representing approximately 6% of the company's 2024 net income.

Impact of US reciprocal tariff: Exports to the US account for approximately 2% of DGC's total revenue and could be subject to a reciprocal tax of less than 46%, in addition to existing import duty. Given the relatively small contribution of the US market to DGC's overall revenue, the impact is expected to be marginal.

Earnings rebounded to positive growth in 4Q24, driven by the recovery in yellow phosphorus sellingprice. We anticipate that this earnings growth will continue into 2025, supported by favorable selling price, resilient sales volume growth across most product categories, and increased usage of in-house apatite ore. However, due to the current apatite ore shortage in Vietnam, DGC may experience lower sales volumes of phosphoric acid. As a result, we have revised our 2025 net income estimate to VND 3.5 trillion (a 14% year-over-year increase, down from our previous estimate of VND 4.3 trillion).

Short-term view: Short-term share price performance may face challenges due to significant selling pressure amid uncertainties surrounding the export outlook. However, this could present a strategic entry point for investors, as the company is projected to deliver robust earnings growth of 34% YoY in 2025 and decent longer term growth.

Long term view: Improvement in BHX earnings should be the main growth driver from 2026, while earnings growth of the ICT & CE chains will likely normalize after strong recovery during 2024. We estimate a 2026-2028F net income CAGR of between 15-20%.  

PNJ has released AGM documents, surprising us with decelerating earnings growth guidance for 2025 (VND 1.96 tn, -7% YoY). This likely reflects the continued challenges faced by jewelry retailers due to the gold material shortage, which has made it difficult to pass elevated gold material costs onto customers as those tend to favor gold bars/rings over gold jewelry in the rising gold price environment. Consequently, we trim our 2025 net income estimate to VND 2.24 tn (+6% YoY, from VND 2.5 tn). Our 2025 net income estimate is higher than PNJ guidance as we believe that the company has adopted too conservative a stance in target setting. Our new target price for the shares of PNJ is VND 97,500/share. With a 35% upside, we reiterate our BUY recommendation. PNJ may face gold material shortages and an indirect impact from the US tariff increase (up to 46%) in the short term. However, the stock's current valuation is very compelling, with a forecast 2025F P/E of 12x, which is significantly below the 16.5x average over the past three years.

• 2M25 results met expectations, mainly driven by IT and telecom segments.
• Continuing reluctance in IT spending in the US similar to last year weighed on the overall growth of the global IT field.
• Signed contract value/signed revenue is showing a slowing growth signal.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of FPT, with a 12-month target price of VND 156,300 (from VND 176,400/share) (representing 22% upside).

2M25 results met our expectations, although revenue growth of the global IT field is slowing, as US businesses remain cautious on IT spending (vs. our previous assumption of an improvement in IT spending). While the FPT AI Factory project has not realized revenue, domestic IT revenue still managed to rise 10% YoY, reducing the loss vs. 2M24. The telecom segment performed well with double-digit growth in terms of both revenue and earnings, reflecting FPT’s effective sales efforts and internet service packages optimization.

Maintain MARKET PERFORM rating, with revised 1Y target price of VND 18,000/share (from VND 20,000/share). We revise down our FY 2025 NPAT estimates to VND 604 bn (from VND 699 bn) to reflect tougher industry outlook and lower ASP assumption. We maintain our conservative view on HSG due to demanding multiples and weak sector outlook. The 2025F PE and EV/EBITDA remain quite rich at 18x and 7.2x, respectively.