Company Report

We lower our rating to OUTPERFORM (from BUY) on the shares of FPT, with a 12-month target price of VND 176,400/share (from VND 186,300/share) (representing 23% upside), as we revise down our 2025 NPATMI estimate by 5%. In fact, based on the current implementation progress of FPT AI Factory project and the weak enrollment situation of FPT Education, we believe that 2025 revenue from FPT AI Factory and the education segment may not meet our previous expectations. Nevertheless, we still project double-digit growth for FPT during 2025 (19% YoY for revenue and 22% YoY for NPATMI), whereby the technology segment will continue to be the primary growth driver.

Upside potential: Higher-than-expected revenue growth from the Americas; faster-than-expected economic recovery to support domestic IT, and online advertising segments.

Downside risks: Higher IT engineer salaries, lower-than-expected revenue/contract value from software and IT services, and slower-than-expected implementation progress at FPT AI Factory.

During the analyst meeting, the management reaffirmed PNJ’s ability to gain market share, though they still expressed concern over the gold shortage issue. This is in line with our recent view on PNJ that the gold shortage issue may still linger in 2025. The gold price has retreated recently after reaching an all-time high in early February. However, the price correction is quite negligible, and the gold flow on the market remains tight. As such, a change in Decree 24/2012/ND-CP (expected in September 2025) should be crucial to create conditions for jewelry and gold retailers to grow in the long term.

PNJ will publish a detailed 2025 financial plan in late March, along with AGM documents. We currently forecast an expanded net income for PNJ in 2025 to VND 2.5 trillion (+17% YoY) and maintain a BUY recommendation with a 1-year target price of VND 123,000 per share.

We upgrade our rating for VNM from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM as we believe the share price is oversold and now presents an 18.6% potential upside to our DCF-based 12-month TP of VND71,500/share (from TP of VND75,000/share as we lower our 2025E forecast due to a more cautious view on recovery).

Total sales for 4Q were lower due to domestic market pullback. VNM posted 4Q24 net consolidated revenue and NPAT of VND15.47tn (-1% YoY) and VN2.15tn (-9% YoY), respectively, missing our NPAT estimate of VND2.29tn. 

Higher ingredient prices pressure profitability. 4Q24 NPAT saw a decline of 9% YoY, a result of both lower sales and GPM (GPM saw a 112bp decrease YoY to 40.1%). For 2024, VNM post net consolidated revenue and NPAT of VND 61.8 tn (2.3% YoY) and VND9.45tn (4.8% YoY), respectively, trailing our FY24 NPAT estimate of -2.6%, and barely achieving the company’s annual NPAT target.

We raise our rating on KBC from OUTPERFORM to BUY, setting a target price of VND 37,500 per share (30.2% upside). Our upgrade is based on: Anticipated successful sales launches and recognition of TD3 IP and Trang Cat Township, which have recently been granted investment approvals in principle and should drive earnings growth over the medium-term. Expected strong sales at current industrial parks, including Nam Son Hap Linh IP, following disappointing 2024 results.Strong growth of 2025 NPATMI is expected to reach VND 2.18 tn (411.1% YoY) and the highest earnings level since company inception.

2024 results: KBC reported net sales of VND 2.77 tn (-50.6% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 426.1 bn (-79.0% YoY), falling short of expectations due to lower industrial land leases. KBC recorded the sale of only 33 ha of industrial land, compared to the estimated 50 ha, with limited cleared land available for sale.

Reduced Target and Earnings Forecast: Given the weaker 4Q24 results and the likelihood of lower financial income, we lower our 2025 earnings forecast and our 1Y target price to VND 169,000 per share (taking into account the share price adjustment after right issue in early February). We rate the shares of MCH as MARKET PERFORM.

4Q24 results: Net sales and net income of MCH totaled to VND 8.9 tn (5% YoY) and VND 2.37 tn (2.7% YoY), respectively, for 4Q24. This is lower than our estimate due to: (i) distributor destocking of convenience food post-typhoon during 3Q24; (ii) poor home personal care (HPC) sales due to temporary distribution disruption of NET products; and (iii) the decline in financial income.

4Q 2024 came out outstanding, with consolidated revenue of VND 1.4 trillion (36% YoY and 11.7% QoQ), pushing the top line to an all-time high. Core PBT (before other income/expenses) reached near a historically high level of VND 684 bn (boasting 137% YoY and 19% QoQ.) 

One-off expenses and earnings: GMD booked one-off income of VND 226 bn from reversal of THE payable provision, which is a normal operation according to management. It also booked a one-off in other income of VND 458 bn, which are provisions for a vessel incident as well as rubber plantation expenses, but the company does not provide a clear breakdown for each item(s).

2024 summary: GMD FY2024 revenue and PBT reached VND 4.8 trillion (25.6% YoY) and VND 2.1 trillion (-25% YoY), a bit lower than our PBT estimates of VND 2.2 trillion due to higher provision booking than expected. Income could be even greater in 2025 were this to be reversed.

On February 11th, 2025, KDH hosted its 4Q24 earnings call to update on quarterly performance and project progress. We maintain our BUY rating for KDH, with a target price of VND 41,500 per share, representing a 22% upside.

Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the recognition of the remaining sold units at The Privia and income from upcoming sales phases of the low-rise section of the joint venture project with Keppel (11.8 ha in the suburb of Thu Duc located right next to HCMC, with KDH owning 51%) to be the main drivers for our 2025 forecast.  As a result, KDH is expected to achieve 2025 net revenue of VND 6.28 tn (+91.6% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 1.18 tn (+46.1% YoY).During the earnings call, KDH management expressed optimism about the real estate market’s development, noting that many developers are preparing to launch new projects in line with new land-related laws, which should enhance market transparency and growth.

We reiterate our BUY rating on the shares of NT2, as well as 12-month target price of VND 24,700 (representing 25% upside). During 4Q24, NT2 witnessed lower compensation income of non-mobilized contracted volume (Qc) YoY. That was the main reason why the quarter’s earnings fell sharply, despite solid volume growth. Nevertheless, NPAT still exceeded our expectations, which we mainly ascribe to lower-than-expected major maintenance expense. For 2025, we project NPAT to rise to VND 336 bn (+365% YoY). On the other hand, we anticipate NT2’s machinery and equipment to fully depreciate during late 2025, further supporting 2026 earnings growth.

In 4Q24, net sales and net income of DGW rose to VND 5.9 tn (21% YoY) and VND 147 bn (+63% YoY). FY24 net sales and net income expanded to VND 22 tn (17% YoY) and VND 448 bn (24% YoY).

Investment view: An increase of DGW 2024 earnings to VND 448 bn (24% YoY) is in line with our estimates. This year marks the continuation of the recovery phase of earnings for DGW after the trough in 2023, back in time the company suffered from weak demand and huge inventory clearance pressure. However, earnings growth should slow down to midteen growth from 2026, as the demand for two major product categories (laptop and mobile phones) is saturated. We maintain 2025 net income estimate of VND 598 bn (+33% YoY) and MARKET PERFORM rating for DGW, with a 1Y target price of VND 41,300.

On February 6, 2025, Becamex IDC (BCM: HOSE) announced a starting price of VND 69,600 per share for its public offering, which would translate to a total proceeds of VND 20.88 trillion. Previously, on February 4, 2024, the State Securities Committee approved the public offering of 300 million shares through an open auction at the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange.

TPB recorded a stellar 4Q24 PBT growth of 239% YoY (or 23.5% QoQ) to VND 2.14 tn, which helped the bank surpass earning guidance with 2024 PBT of VND 7.6 tn (36% YoY). Besides the low base level in 4Q23, this profit was mainly driven by the solid non-NII (2.5x times QoQ) including NFI (14.4% QoQ), trading income from forex and securities at VND 1 tn (vs. a loss of VND 108 bn in 3Q24), and writeback income (43% QoQ).

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for TPB shares with 1Y TP of VND 19,800. TPB is trading at -1 standard deviation at 1.13x compared to the historic average of 1.53x since 2018.

4Q24 witnessed a recovery in pretax profit of VIB by 20% QoQ (or 1% YoY) to VND 2.4 tn, equivalent to 2024 PBT of VND 9 tn (-16% YoY) in line with our projection but below earnings guidance. Such profit was mainly derived from NFI recovery (60% QoQ), securities trading income (120% QoQ), and writeback income (93% QoQ). Key takeaways:

Credit growth accelerated to 21.5% YTD (or 8.9% QoQ) to VND 324.6 tn as of 4Q24, fueled by mortgage (VND 6.2 tn QoQ), logistics (VND 6.6 tn QoQ), brokerage (VND 3.9 tn QoQ), household loans (VND 3.7 tn QoQ), and other secured loans (VND 4 tn QoQ).

NIM under pressure at 3.53% (-40bps QoQ) in 4Q24 as VIB is offering low mortgage rates for new disbursements and expanding to corporate sector. As such, asset yields continue to decrease -35 bps QoQ while funding costs inched slightly 5 bps QoQ.

Despite VND 832 bn bad debt was written off during 4Q24, NPLs was nearly flat at VND 11.4 tn. However, the NPL ratio decreased to 3.51% in 4Q24 (vs. 3.85% in 3Q24) mainly thanks to solid credit growth. Loss coverage ratios continued at a low level of 50% in 4Q24.

MSB reported 4Q24 pretax profit of VND 2 tn (230% YoY, or 65% QoQ), reflecting the low base in 4Q23. Such solid profit growth was driven by strong recovery in NII (31.7% YoY), better NFI (11.4% YoY), trading income improvement in both forex (5x times YoY) and securities (81% QoQ), greater effort in collecting bad debt written-off (400% YoY, or 324% QoQ) and lighter credit provision (-35% QoQ). In general, MSB accomplished 2024 earnings guidance at VND 6.9 tn, beating our projection of VND 6.2 tn.

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for MSB shares with 1Y TP of VND 14,500. MSB is trading at trailing P/B of 0.79x, significantly lower than the historic average of 1.17x since 2020.