Company Report

On February 4, 2025, BCM had received approval from the State Securities Commission for its public offering of 300 million shares through an open auction at the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange. This is expected to be one of the largest deals in the history of Vietnam’s capital market. According to the prospectus, the total proceeds from the offering, at an estimation of VND 15 trillion, will be allocated to:

Investment in Cay Truong Industrial Park and Bau Bang-Expanded Industrial Park in Binh Duong province.

Capital increases for affiliate companies, including Vietnam-Singapore Industrial Park Joint Venture Co., Ltd. (VSIP); Becamex Binh Phuoc Infrastructure Development Joint Stock Company; Becamex-VSIP Power Investment and Development Joint Stock Company (BVP); Vietnam-Singapore Smart Energy Solutions Joint Stock Company (VSSES); and Becamex Binh Dinh Joint Stock Company.

Financial restructuring, including repayment of current bonds and loans totaling VND 5.06 trillion.

HAH achieved its highest quarterly earnings ever. No doubt impressive, this also aligns with our expectation of a robust year, justifying our Buy recommendation. In Q4, NPATMI surpassed historically high quarters during 2021-2022, and exceeded 20% of our estimates for this quarter. HAH reported Q4 sales and NPATMI at VND 1.21 trillion (82% YoY and 7% QoQ) and VND 280 billion (340% YoY and 40.6% QoQ). The earnings followed a QoQ improving trend throughout the year, with preliminary 2024 NPATMI increasing by 70% YoY to reach VND 650 billion. This led to the valuation of HAH being adjusted to a more appropriate level, with the stock trading at a TTM P/E of 10.x and a TTM EV/EBITDA of 4.x.

Although international spot rates have been adjusting as geopolitical tensions ease mixing with freight rallies due to frontloading events, the impact on HAH's earnings is delayed. The charter segment, the primary driver of HAH earnings, has locked in charter rates around Q2. The rate in Q4 2024 doubled, equating a tripling of rates charged during Q4 2023, which should be a strong factor leading to this surge. Meanwhile, the YoY comparable charter rate hit a trough point, with vessels even generating accounting losses in Q4 2023. The domestic market rebound has witnessed a pickup in shipping demand, although it shouldn’t make much a dent due to being characteristic of low yield, despite its high weight in sales.

HDB reported 4Q24 pretax profit of roughly VND 4.1 tn (-7% YoY, or -9% QoQ), mainly due to larger operating expenses (+35% YoY, or +20% QoQ) and a higher provision burden (+47.4% YoY, or +67.5% QoQ). However, NIM improvement (+7 bps QoQ) and better non-NII (+58.6% YoY, or +63.5% QoQ) became a spotlight in 4Q24 business results. In general, HDB achieved 2024 PBT of VND 16.7 tn, beating earnings guidance and in line with our projection.

For HD Saison, 4Q24 pretax profits rose to VND 353.5 bn (+37% YoY), thanks to stable NIM at 30.6%. The NPL ratio improved slightly to 7.39% in 4Q24 given the decent credit growth of 13.2% YTD (or +5.5% QoQ) to VND 18.2 tn.

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for HDB shares with 1Y TP of VND 28,200. HDB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.45x, below the historical P/B of 1.67x since January 2018.

MBB recorded a rise in 4Q24 pretax profit of roughly VND 8.1 tn (+28.5% YoY, or +10.5% QoQ), mainly thanks to an improvement in NII (+21.6% YoY, or +7% QoQ), securities trading income (47x times QoQ), and write-back income (+33.6% QoQ). In general, MBB surpassed company earnings guidance and our estimates alike, with a 2024 PBT improvement to VND 28.8 tn (+9.5% YoY).

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for MBB, with a 1Y TP of VND 25,200. MBB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.06x, below the historical average of 1.4x.

Improving sales, thanks to the advertising & promotions (A&P) campaign in anticipation of the Tet holiday. SAB posted an improvement in 4Q24 net revenue and NPAT of VND 8.93 tn (5% y/y) and 991 bn (3% y/y), trailing our expectation of 1.26tn VND. Net sales was higher, thanks to more aggressive A&P spend (A&P accounting for 16% of net sales compared to 15.7% during 4Q23).

Net margin hurt as COGS rises, partially offset by increase in associate income. GPM of beer category decreased for the 2^nd consecutive quarter, to 31.8% compared to 33.8% during 2Q24, due to higher cost of raw materials. Profit from associates nearly tripled to 130 bn VND, but was offset by increase in SG&A. Overall, while net profit increased 3%, net margin saw a decrease of 20 bps y/y, 400 bps q/q.

Missed full year NPAT target amidst challenging background. For FY24, SAB posted an expansion in net revenue and NPAT of 32.2 tn (5% y/y) and 4.49 tn VND (6% y/y), despite the zero-tolerance alcohol ordinance in place, fierce competition, and weak demand. This result even trailed both the company’s and our NPAT expectations by -7%. Lower interest income and lower profit from associates also hurt the parent company’s profit during 2024, offset by lower A&P spend during 1H24. Overall, SAB recorded a NPAT increase of 6% y/y, and a slight NPM increase from 14 to 14.1%.

We currently hold a MARKET PERFORM rating for SAB, with 1Y TP of 64,500/share. We will follow up with a full report after SAB's analyst meeting on Feb 13^th.

In 4Q24, FRT witnessed expansion through net sales of VND 11.4 tn (32% YoY) and PBT of VND 169 bn, bouncing back from a loss of VND 97 bn in 4Q23, thanks to improved performance of both FPT Shop and Long Chau chains.

Investment view: Revenue and PBT for FY2024 increased to VND 40.1 tn (26% YoY) and VND 527 bn (vs. a loss of VND 294 bn in 2023). Such result was better than our full year PBT estimate of VND 492 bn. Our latest recommendations for FRT was OUTPERFORM. With better than expected 4Q24 results, we see upside to our 2025 earnings estimate, and will update our valuation in a more comprehensive report.

CTG surprised with a stellar PBT growth of +59% YoY (or +87% QoQ) to VND 12.25 tn in 4Q24, mainly thanks to the reduction in provision expense (-45% YoY, or 73.4% QoQ), forex gains (+38% YoY), and solid write-back income (+71% YoY). As such, 2024 pretax profit reached VND 31.8 tn (+26.5% YoY), beating earnings guidance and our projection. 

We currently hold a BUY rating for CTG shares with 1Y TP of VND 44,200. CTG is trading at historic average P/B of 1.3x with 2024 ROAE of 18.4% (vs. 2023 ROAE of 17%).

Performance for VRE in 2024 matched our estimates, with revenue totaling VND 8.94 tn (-8.7% YoY) and NPATMI reaching VND 4.1 tn (-7.1% YoY). In terms of 4Q24’s performance, revenue was VND 2.03 tn (-9.2% YoY, 2.4% QoQ) and NPATMI was VND 1.08 tn (1.7% YoY & +19.7% QoQ).

For the 2025 outlook, VRE plans to open three new malls, adding around 117,000 sqm of retail GFA, a 6.5% increase YoY. VRE aims to enhance operational efficiency by increasing blended occupancy to around 88% from 84.2% in 2024, fully operating the five new malls opened in 2024, and increasing average rental rates.

Additionally, two new shophouse projects are slated for launch in 2025: one in the Vinhomes Royal Island project in Haiphong and another in the Vinhomes Golden Avenue project in Quang Ninh province. Revenue from these projects is expected to start pouring in from 2026.

We maintain our Outperform recommendation on VRE, with a 1-year target price of VND 25,200/share, given its leading position in mall leasing in Vietnam and continuous expansion in its core businesses.

The NPATMI in 4Q24 stood at VND 397.5 bn, up 593.3% YoY and 465% QoQ, albeit missing our estimate of VND 558 billion for 4Q24. Revenue in the quarter posted at VND 2.05 tn, marking a 336% YoY increase and a 710.7% QoQ rise. This strong growth is attributed to the condo deliveries in the Privia project during the quarter. Located in HCMC, the Privia project includes 1,043 condos, which were completely sold out within three months of their launch in November 2023. KDH began handing over units in October 2024, and we estimate that around 60%-65% of the total units sold were handed over during the quarter. The remaining units are expected to be handed over in the first half of 2025.

We maintain our BUY rating for KDH, with a target price of VND 41,500 per share, representing a 19.4% upside. The HCMC real estate market shows signs of recovery, as primary condo sales have surpassed new supply, and secondary condo prices continued to rise during 2024. Consequently, KDH stands to benefit from this recovery, with anticipated increases in real estate prices and new launches in HCMC.

PAN Group posted improvement in key metrics during 4Q24, with net revenue and NPAT of VND 4.27tn (+2% YoY) and 427bn (+13% YoY), beating our NPAT expectation by 15%. 4Q24 growth continued to power an outstanding growth rate to cap off FY2024.

Strong profit growth on a YoY basis were seen in shrimp export (+114%), pangasius exports (+41%), dried nuts & fruit (+21%), while the agricultural chemicals & disinfectants segment remained strong. Seed, packaged rice and confectionery segments decreased slightly by 8-10% due to seasonal factors (last fall’s typhoon, high input costs). GPM increased by 140 bps to 25.2%, mostly thanks to new product/market expansion and lower costs (shipping costs & aqua feed costs).

First time FY NPAT exceeded 1 trillion VND.  PAN posted 2024 consolidated net revenue and NPAT of 16.2tn (+23% YoY) and 1.15tn (+40% YoY) respectively, beating our NPAT expectation by 6%. The company has surpassed its annual NPAT target goal by 33%, mostly thanks to strong performances of publicly traded subsidiaries such as VFG, NSC, and FMC. Excluding one-off income from VFG, PAN’s core NPATMI still recorded a 38% YoY growth (VND 560bn). Looking forward to 2025, the company expects to see more growth from aquaculture and packaged food exports, as well as consumption recovery among Vietnamese consumers.

In 2024, FPT delivered an improvement in revenue and NPAT of VND 62.9 tn (19.4% YoY) and VND 9.4 tn (21% YoY). Meanwhile, PBT grew by 20.3% YoY. All these figures nearly exactly matched our respective forecasts.

Technology segment was the main growth driver, accounting for over 60% and 45% of total revenue and PBT.

We currently recommend a BUY rating for FPT with a 12-month target price of VND 186,300/share (representing 21% upside).

CTR released 2024 results, with an improvement in revenue of VND 12.6 tn (+12% YoY) and NPAT of VND 539 bn (+4% YoY). Both figures are equivalent to 101% of our respective 2024 forecasts (in line with our expectations). Overall gross profit margin achieved 7% (vs. 7.9% in 2023), primarily due to the lower profit margin from the construction segment. For 4Q24, the company achieved VND 3.6 tn (+10% YoY) of revenue and VND 156 bn (+3% YoY) of NPAT. Key takeaways from 2024 results:

We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for CTR, with a 12-month target price of VND 135,000/share.

With an improvement in 4Q24 PBT to VND 5.7 tn (12.4% YoY, or 17% QoQ), ACB accomplished 2024 earnings guidance of VND 21 tn (5% YoY), in line with our quarterly estimate. Such earnings were driven by the recovery in NII (12.6% YoY), NFI (19.5% YoY), better OPEX control (-9% YoY), and lighter credit provision (-54% YoY).

We currently hold a BUY rating for ACB, with a 1Y TP of VND 31,000. This presents a potential upside of 22.5%, and a potential dividend yield of 4%. ACB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.3x, under its 5Y average of 1.7x.

TCB recorded 4Q24 pretax profit of VND 4.7 tn (-18.7% YoY, or -35% QoQ), below our 4Q24 projection of VND 5 tn, due to the surprised reduction in NIM (-39bps QoQ), NFI deceleration (-41.4% YoY, or -25% QoQ), higher operating expenses (+38% QoQ) and banca penalty fees of VND 1.8 tn. Despite the humble 4Q24 business results, TCB still achieved 2024 PBT of VND 27.5 tn (+20.3% YoY), beating earnings guidance.

We currently hold a BUY rating for TCB shares with 1Y TP of VND 28,700, presenting an upside of 16.7%. TCB is trading at the trailing P/B of 1.1x, under its historic average of 1.4x since 2018.