Company Report

Earnings diversification provides a buffer against margin pressure. TCB’s integrated ecosystem offers significant scope to diversify fee income and reduce reliance on NII. In particular, with Masterise and Vingroup participating in major national infrastructure and urban-development projects, we expect TCX to benefit from increased bond issuance and distribution mandates, alongside L/C and settlement services.

Earnings growth remains resilient despite emerging headwinds. We forecast PBT of VND37.8tn (+16% YoY) in 2026 and VND43.4tn (+15% YoY) in 2027. We expect TCB’s diversified revenue base to partly offset NIM compression and higher credit costs as the real-estate market faces pressure from elevated interest rates.

Valuation provides room for re-rating. At 1.13x 2026F P/B, TCB trades at a meaningful discount to its historical average of 1.31x, although above the 2022 trough of 0.67x. This valuation appears undemanding relative to our expected ~15.5% ROE and TCB’s strong capital position. In our view, the discount primarily reflects near-term concerns around asset quality and NIM rather than structural deterioration in the bank’s earnings power or franchise. As fee-income diversification and ecosystem-driven growth increasingly offset margin pressure, we see scope for multiple re-rating.

Robust backlog supports volume growth. Large public and commercial housing projects from Vinhomes, Masterise and Hoang Huy Group should support resilient demand for construction materials. With construction activity continuing to expand, we expect NTP to maintain positive volume growth, supporting our forecast of more than 136,000 tonnes of sales in 2026 (+2% YoY).

Pricing power supports margins amid PVC volatility. As the leading pipe manufacturer in northern Vietnam, NTP has demonstrated the ability to adjust ASP when PVC resin prices increase. This provides a degree of natural margin protection and should allow gross and net profit margins to remain around their historical averages of 31% and 14%, respectively, under a normalized input-cost environment.

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. NTP maintains a conservative capital structure with no long-term debt, supported by a sizeable cash and short-term investment position. With interest rates remaining relatively high, financial income from these liquid assets should provide an additional contribution to earnings.

Potential catalyst from State-capital restructuring. Decision 40/2026/QĐ-TTg, which establishes criteria for classifying enterprises for State-capital restructuring, could facilitate the divestment process involving SCIC’s stake in NTP. This could improve the company’s ownership structure and provide an additional valuation catalyst.

Overseas market will remain the key growth driver, along with long-term investments in strategic technologies.

Public sector digitalization adds medium-term optionality. FPT has collaborated with the Government in digital initiatives, providing structural growth for domestic IT services. FPT AI Factory also started generating profit in 2Q26.

AI transformation as a growth driver over the medium term, amid a rapidly evolving AI landscape.

Resilient pharmacy business: Long Chau’s earnings outlook remains defensive despite a weaker consumption environment driven by rising inflation, as pharmaceutical demand is largely non-discretionary.

ICT business supported by replacement demand: While earnings growth at FPT Shop is expected to normalize following the replacement cycle, its relatively small contribution to group earnings should limit any impact on FRT’s consolidated profitability.

Strengthening balance sheet: Ongoing deleveraging continues to improve financial flexibility, enhancing resilience and reducing sensitivity to a potentially higher interest-rate environment.

Earnings outlook remains intact despite Section 301 tariffs. Lower raw material costs are expected to partly offset weaker US demand. We trim our 2026 revenue forecast to VND 13.0tn (+8% YoY) from VND 13.4tn (+12% YoY), while maintaining our NPATMI forecast at VND 1.4tn (+3% YoY). We introduce 2027 forecasts of VND 13.4tn revenue (+4% YoY) and VND 1.5tn NPATMI (+6% YoY).

Tariff risks remain manageable. Vietnam’s pangasius industry continues to enjoy a relative competitive advantage despite the new 12.5% Section 301 tariff, although further tariff increases could weigh on demand. VHC received a preliminary anti-dumping duty of USD 0/kg, compared with USD 0.23–0.29/kg for peers, translating into an estimated 5–10% cost advantage at current US selling prices. The final determination remains pending.

Elevated rubber prices should continue to support earnings in 2026. Natural rubber prices remained favorable, increasing 26.4% YoY and 21% YTD as of May 2026, driven by weather-related supply disruptions, particularly heavy rainfall in Thailand. We forecast rubber revenue of VND26.7tn (+12% YoY) despite an estimated 4% decline in sales volume to 513,870 tons, as higher selling prices more than offset lower volumes. Gross margin is projected to improve to 28%, up 2 percentage points YoY.

Land conversion remains the key structural growth catalyst. GVR continues to advance legal and investment approvals for 23,444ha of industrial park development by 2030, with a strategic focus on southern Vietnam. For 2026, we forecast VND3.2tn of land-transfer revenue (+875% YoY) and VND2.63tn of pre-tax profit, assuming approximately 1,500ha of converted land in Dong Nai and Binh Duong (old province boundaries).

Strong balance sheet provides additional earnings support. As of end-2Q26, GVR held net cash of VND26.2tn, equivalent to 23.6% of its current market capitalization. We expect the company’s substantial cash holdings to generate higher financial income as deposit rates continue to trend upward.

We upgrade SZC to Outperform from Market Perform. The recent share price correction has created what we believe is an unjustified valuation discount. SZC is currently trading at 1.02x 2026F P/B, well below the industrial park sector average of 1.83x, despite retaining attractive long-term fundamentals. We believe this discount overlooks: (i) a remaining leasable land bank of more than 514 ha, including 150 ha already cleared and ready for lease; and (ii) meaningful rental upside, with current asking rents still 10–15% below other industrial parks in Ba Ria–Vung Tau, while improving connectivity from the Bien Hoa–Vung Tau Expressway should support further price appreciation. Leasing momentum has also begun to recover, with both new lease contracts and land lease MOUs rebounding from the low base in 2025. We derive a 12-month SOTP-based target price of VND24,000/share.

At first glance, SZC’s 2026F P/E of 38.0x appears demanding relative to the sector average of 11.9x. However, we believe this comparison is misleading. The elevated multiple primarily reflects the accounting transition under Circular 99/2025, which changes industrial park lease revenue recognition from upfront recognition to straight-line recognition over the remaining 33-year lease term. The accounting change depresses reported earnings without affecting cash inflows or project economics. As such, P/B remains the more appropriate valuation metric for industrial park developers at this stage of their development cycle.

A strong first half is unlikely to be sustained. The robust 1H26 performance was supported in part by order frontloading ahead of tariff implementation, reducing visibility for the second half. Meanwhile, persistently high borrowing costs are expected to keep interest expenses elevated, while continued investment in operations should drive further SG&A growth.

Valuation reset reflects weaker near-term earnings outlook. We cut our 2026 NPAT forecast to VND362bn (-8% YoY) from VND436bn (+11% YoY) previously. Consequently, we lower our target price to VND19,200/share (from VND23,000), based on an equal weighting of DCF and P/E methodologies. Our target P/E multiple is reduced to 7x, below the five-year historical average of 9x, to reflect a more challenging earnings outlook.

Long-term investors may accumulate on further weakness. Despite near-term headwinds, we believe TNG’s consistent dividend policy provides downside support. Historically, the stock has traded at trough valuations as low as 3.6x P/E during the 2022 downturn.

Following the recent share price correction, we upgrade NT2 to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) while maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 27,000/share, implying 27% upside.

Investment thesis

We continue to view NT2 as one of the most attractive conventional power generators under our coverage, supported by two structural advantages:

•           Secured gas supply. NT2 remains one of the few gas-fired power plants benefiting from a long-term gas supply agreement with PV GAS (GAS: HOSE), providing greater fuel security amid tightening domestic gas availability.

•           Structurally lower cost base. The plant’s major machinery and equipment were fully depreciated in 4Q25, significantly reducing depreciation expenses and supporting stronger earnings quality from 2026 onward.

We downgrade our rating for HAH from BUY to Outperform with a target price of VND 63,500/share (implying 22.4% upside), supported by sustained earnings strength in 2026 and better mid-term visibility supported by tight feeder markets and ongoing fleet expansion.

Investment Thesis

•           Strong 1H2026 performance, supported by high charter rates, fleet additions (GREEN PARK and GREEN TIME).

•           Global trade volatility and rerouting dynamics (Red Sea/Cape route) continue to absorb effective capacity. Charter rates for feeder vessels maintains high base.

•           Structural imbalance in global fleet composition supports long-term demand for feeder-sized ships, favoring HAH with a strong capacity growth at a 5-year CAGR of 26%.

Strong earnings momentum in 5M26. According to management accounts, parent company revenue reached VND 398.9 billion, up 82.9% YoY, while pre-tax profit increased 69.7% YoY to VND 167 billion. The robust performance was primarily driven by a 146% YoY increase in rubber sales volume to 4,072 tonnes, supplemented by income from rubber plantation liquidation.

Land conversion to become the key earnings driver. DPR is well positioned to capitalize on the conversion of rubber plantations into industrial parks, supported by increasing industrial land scarcity. We estimate that approximately 3,500 hectares of rubber land—equivalent to around 40% of the company’s current cultivated area—will be converted for industrial parks and other developments during 2026–2030 under the land-use master plan for the former Binh Phuoc province. Based on our estimates, these conversions could unlock more than VND 3 trillion in compensation and monetization value, with earnings recognition expected to accelerate over 2026–2027.

Exceptionally strong balance sheet. DPR remains debt-free, with no short- or long-term borrowings. Its net cash position represents 67.1% of its current market capitalization, providing substantial financial flexibility while supporting an attractive dividend profile.

We upgrade VEA to OUTPERFORM and raise our 12-month target price to VND38,000/share (from VND34,000). The regulatory headwinds that drove our previous downgrade have resolved at better-than-expected outcomes, Honda Vietnam volumes have held through the policy transition, and the dividend yield alone delivers enough returns without requiring a P/E re-rating.

Investment Thesis

•           The worst is behind. Regulatory shocks resolved without significant damage to Honda volumes. Honda 5M26 motorbike sales +1.3% YoY, broadly flat through the policy transition.

•           EV transition is a multi-year, subsidy-dependent story. Regional precedent confirms that displacement of a strong incumbent (Honda) without a hard regulatory mandate is slow.

•           Volume stability is the key. We expect demand for Honda/Toyota/Ford to outlast the current subsidy-driven EV expansion phase.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on MCH while lowering our 12-month target price to VND 126,000/share (from VND 130,000/share), primarily reflecting a higher cost of equity amid rising interest rates and less supportive equity market conditions. At the current share price, MCH is trading at 21.8x 2026F P/E, above its five-year historical average of 19.0x, suggesting limited valuation upside despite the company’s resilient operating fundamentals.

Investment highlights

Recovery in the general trade (GT) channel is expected to remain a key growth driver.

Attractive dividend policy, with a cash dividend equivalent to 50% of par value (approximately 4% dividend yield).

Valuation remains demanding relative to regional and domestic consumer peers (2026F P/E: 21.8x for MCH vs. 13.7x for SAB and 13.1x for VNM).

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on KDH with a 12-month target price of VND 27,300/share, implying 25.5% upside.

KDH remains one of our preferred residential developers, supported by its sizeable, legally clear landbank in Ho Chi Minh City and strong execution track record.

We expect presales to accelerate on the back of a robust project pipeline in prime locations, with presales value forecast at VND 6.4tn in 2026 (+47% YoY) and VND 7.2tn in 2027 (+13% YoY).

Valuation remains compelling. KDH is trading at 1.3x trailing P/B, representing a c.40% discount to its five-year average of 2.2x and broadly in line with the trough valuation seen in 2022.

Catalogue sales price increase provides durability for margins: BMP has adjusted its selling price for PVC products on average 15% since early April 2026 as a reaction to the spiked input costs (PVC resin – a downstream product of crude oil). With the Middle East conflict stabilizing and input cost reverting back to pre-conflict range, we can expect positive dynamics for BMP’s GPM similar to the post-COVID period.

Better/more favorable weather setup support construction activity, indirectly help maintain BMP’s output volume.

Recently expanded materials warehouse increased BMP’s input runway to over 2 months, enabling possibility for BMP to normalize/avoid high cost period with supply contracts signed prior to March.

Consistent, high dividends: BMP is slowly transitioning into a stable dividend model with a payout ratio of 99%, translating to an average dividends yield (effectively earnings yield) of over 10%.