Company Report

Investment Thesis

•           POR21 tariff moat restored. VHC secured a USD 0 /kg preliminary anti-dumping rate vs. USD 0.23–0.29/kg for peers: a 5-10% cost advantage at prevailing selling prices in the US market. Final determination is due June 2026.

•           Whitefish supply decline creates tailwind, following Barents Sea wild-caught cod quota cut 21% (to a three-decade low) and lower pollock supply expected. Pangasius is a direct substitution candidate in EU and US market. 2M26 revenue increased 11% YoY. Pangasius products sales increased +13% YoY, with US sales up 22% YoY (accounting for c.40% of pangasius sales).

•           We project 2026F revenue and NPAT of VND 13.4tn (+12% YoY) and 1.4tn (+3% YoY), respectively. At VND 57,400/share, VHC's 2026F P/E is 9x, in line with its five-year average of 9x. Given the 17% upside, we maintain our Outperform rating.

We upgrade our rating for PVT to OUTPERFORM with a target price of VND 26,200/share (23.6% upside), reflecting strong mid-term earnings potential, ongoing fleet expansion, and a favorable tanker market supported by elevated time charter and spot rates amid geopolitical tensions. We forecast FY2026 NPATMI of VND 1,278bn (+23% YoY), driven by higher charter rates, operating leverage from a young and expanding fleet, and sustained tight global tanker capacity. At VND 21,200 per share, PVT trades at 8.48x 2026F forward P/E, below its five-year average of 9x, and 1.01x 2026F forward P/B, below the 1.25x average.

Investment Thesis

Fleet expansion boosts revenue and margins: PVT’s fleet grew to 65 vessels (2.03mn DWT) in 2025, with six more units expected in 2026. Higher utilization and favorable TC rates generate incremental revenue with limited fixed-cost impact.

Geopolitical-driven tanker tightness supports rates: Strait of Hormuz disruptions, elevated war-risk premiums, and operator caution reduce active fleet availability, sustaining charter rates.

Young, modern fleet delivers competitive advantage: Newbuild deliveries and acquisitions position PVT to benefit from tanker replacement cycles, younger hulls (5–10 years vs global >15), and recovering trade volumes.

Disciplined reinvestment ensures long-term resilience: PVT balances fleet growth with financial discipline, preserving earnings sustainability and operational flexibility.

We upgrade our rating on GAS from UNDERPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 83,400/share (from VND 75,800), implying 4% upside from the current price of VND 80,500 (as of 23 Mar 2026). The higher target price reflects a 13% upward revision in our 2026 earnings forecast.

Investment Thesis: We expect earnings resilience in 2026 to be supported by improving natural gas gross profit margins and relatively stable domestic gas supply compared to LNG and LPG. Further, GAS benefits from more stable input pricing for dry gas, differentiating it from downstream petroleum distributors such as PLX, OIL, and refiners like BSR.

We maintain Outperform rating for TPB share with 12-month target price of VND 18,700/share (upside of 18.4%), presenting a target P/B of 0.9x. The forward 2026 P/B is 0.83x – under 2026 BVPS – marking a reasonable entry point while ROE maintains at 18%.

Investment thesis

Core earnings recovery: Despite a largely stable NIM, we expect ~13.6% credit growth to drive a 16.7% YoY increase in net interest income. At the same time, continued momentum in card-related fees and e-banking services should support a ~16.3% YoY expansion in fee income, reinforcing overall earnings growth

Relatively strong asset quality within tier-2 peers: Ongoing accelerated write-offs and restructuring efforts have been effective in containing NPL formation relative to peers in the tier-2 segment. In addition, a ~100% loss coverage ratio provides a reasonable buffer against potential volatility in a higher interest rate environment.

Compelling entry point: TPB is currently trading at ~0.83x 2026F P/B, below its book value, while delivering ROE above 18%, suggesting attractive risk-reward at current valuation levels. Its historical trough was 0.73x, which was reached during a period of heightened market volatility driven by both reciprocal tariff concerns and unfavorable news surrounding the temporary suspension of BCG-related bonds.

We raise our 12-month target price for DGW to VND 49,000 (from VND 47,700), reflecting a higher 2026 net income forecast of VND 723 billion (+30% YoY, previously VND 699 billion). We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. Following the recent market correction, DGW is currently trading at a 2026 P/E of 13.2x, significantly below its five-year historical average of 17x, suggesting attractive valuation.

Investment Thesis

• Strong demand for laptops and office equipment supported by the accelerating adoption of AI-enabled devices and the continued expansion of data centers.
• Mobile phone segment expected to return to growth in 2026, supported by the introduction of the Motorola brand alongside continued sales of Apple iPhone products.
• Fiscal stimulus to support consumer demand, including the 2% VAT reduction for ICT and consumer electronics products (effective July 2025 to December 2026) and higher personal and dependent income tax allowance thresholds.

We lift our rating to BUY for HDB share with 12-month target price of VND 32,000/share (upside of 25%), implying a target P/B of 1.6x. The forward 2026 P/B of 1.33x with ROE above 20% presents a reasonable entry point. Strong credit growth momentum will be a backbone for HDB to maintain high profit growth and decent NPL ratios in the coming years.

Investment thesis

•           Market share expansion supported by a higher credit quota: As HDB is restructuring the weak bank (Vikki Bank), it has been granted a significantly higher credit quota than peers (35% annually from 2025 to 2027). This preferential quota provides a crucial opportunity for HDB to accelerate market share expansion despite the sector’s overall credit growth constraints.

•           Solid profit growth: Pretax profit is projected at VND 27.6 tn (+29.6% YoY), driven by strong NII (+27% YoY) thanks to strong credit growth (+30.3% YTD) while net fee income continued its growth at 40% from serving financial solutions for large corporations.

•           Favorable entry setup: Trading at 1.33x 2026F P/B, the stock offers an attractive entry level, supported by an industry best ROE of 25%—well above the 17.7% peer benchmark.

•           Reiterate OUTPERFORM rating with 1Y target price VND 32,800/share (+28% upside).

•           KDH is currently trading at a trailing P/B of 1.5x, which is below its 5 year average of 1.7x (-1std).

Investment thesis

•           We maintain a positive outlook in the long-term for Khang Dien, as a reputable developer in Vietnam with a substantial land bank in HCMC with clear legal status and proven project development capabilities

•           We forecast KDH’s presales values of VND 6.4tn in 2026 (+47% YoY) and VND 7.7tn in 2027 (+20% YoY).

•           KDH is currently trading at a trailing P/B of 1.5x, which is below its 5 year average of 1.7x (-1std), implying an attractive valuation.

A lack of new capital raising initiatives is likely to serve as a tailwind for profit growth: CTG remains the only listed SOCB without a private placement plan. We expect its strong earnings momentum to generate sufficient capital to sustain CAR levels, supporting healthy credit expansion in the years ahead. Given the ongoing constraints around credit allocation to higher risk-weighted asset classes, we expect CTG to gradually optimize their asset mix toward segments with more favorable risk weights. Accordingly, we assume risk-weighted assets to grow at around ~15% annually (or potentially lower). Meanwhile, Tier-1 capital should expand at a faster pace of ~20% on average, supported by strong earnings generation. As a result, CAR is projected to improve by roughly 40bps per year.

Resilient fundamentals: Pretax profit is projected to reach VND 52.4 tn (+20.6% YoY), stemming from stable NIM as well as credit costs amid solid credit growth of 15%. Besides, writeback income is expected to be strong in 2026.

Appealing valuation: For 2026, the stock trades at 1.30x P/B with ROE above 20%, presenting an attractive valuation relative to BID (1.55x) and VCB (1.96x), which deliver ROE of 18.6% and 16.6% respectively.

We downgrade our rating on REE Corporation (REE: HOSE) to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM) and revise our 12-month target price to VND 70,200 per share (previously VND 80,000), implying 11% upside. The target price adjustment reflects:

1. a 16% reduction in our 2026 NPATMI forecast, and

2. the addition of a P/E valuation method alongside our existing approach to better capture the balance between REE’s long-term growth prospects and near-term earnings headwinds.

Investment thesis

•           Long-term potential in the power segment remains intact as REE continues expanding its renewable energy portfolio. However, hydropower output is inherently cyclical, which may create short-term earnings headwinds.

•           M&E services and office leasing are expected to support growth, with double-digit revenue expansion driven by a resilient M&E order backlog and improving occupancy at E.town 6.

We upgrade our rating for HAH to BUY with a target price of VND 86,500/share (implying 28.9% upside), reflecting sustained earnings strength in 2025 and improved 2026 visibility supported by structurally tight feeder markets and ongoing fleet expansion.

We forecast FY2026 NPATMI of VND 1,390bn (+18.4% YoY), driven by higher fleet capacity, increasing time charter rates, and continued operating leverage. HAH is currently trading at 8.52x 2026F P/E, below its historical mid-cycle averages. We believe current valuation does not fully reflect the company’s expansion roadmap toward ~80,000 TEUs by 2029 and its exposure to structurally undersupplied feeder segments.

Investment Thesis

•           Earnings recovery has normalized and structurally strengthened since 2H2025, supported by sustained charter rates and incremental fleet additions (Haian Zeta and Haian Iris), with operating leverage increasingly visible in margins.

•           Global trade volatility and rerouting dynamics (Red Sea/Cape route) continue to absorb effective capacity, raising charter rates - particularly for feeder vessels where supply growth remains limited relative to mega-vessel deliveries.

•           Structural imbalance in global fleet composition (dominance of Neo-Panamax+ newbuilds) reinforces long-term demand for feeder-sized ships, positioning HAH favorably within regional and intra-Asia routes with a strong capacity growth at a 5-year CAGR of 26.3%.

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price for MSN to VND 107,000 per share (implying 36% upside; previously VND 98,700), reflecting an upward revision to our 2026F net income forecast to VND 9.58 trillion (+42% YoY). Accordingly, we upgrade the stock to a BUY (from OUTPERFORM) recommendation. At 17.9x 2026E P/E, MSN now trades at a materially more attractive valuation relative to the ~75x multiple observed post the WinCommerce acquisition.

Investment Thesis

•           WinCommerce (WCM): Positioned to benefit from the transition from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses, accelerating the shift toward modern trade.

•           Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR): Rising tungsten prices are expected to support non-core earnings growth in 2026.

•           Market upgrade catalyst: MSN stands to benefit from Vietnam’s potential reclassification to Emerging Market status by FTSE, which could drive incremental capital inflows.

We maintain a Market Perform rating on SAB. Near-term margin support from favorable raw material hedging should limit downside risks, although these benefits appear largely priced in. A football-packed summer is expected to provide a cyclical boost to beer consumption. With mid-single-digit earnings growth projected, we set a 12-month target price of VND 55,000/share (14% upside potential).

Investment Thesis

Margin expansion offsets modest top-line recovery. Management expects gross margin improvement driven by disciplined hedging: malt prices are secured through end-2026 and aluminum through mid-2026 at favorable levels, enhancing earnings visibility. We forecast:

•           2026F: Revenue of VND 27.0tn (+4.4% YoY), NPAT of VND 4.73tn (+3.6% YoY)

•           2027F: Revenue of VND 27.8tn (+3.0% YoY), NPAT of VND 4.81tn (+1.6% YoY)

We favor accumulating on weakness, supported by SAB’s stable dividend policy. SAB is trading at VND 48,400/share (~14x 2026F P/E), slightly below its two-year average of 15x. Our target price is derived from a blended DCF and target P/E multiple of 13x. Upside remains conditional on sustained material cost tailwinds, sector recovery, and product innovation to mitigate structural General Trade (GT) weakness and potential excise tax pressures.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating with a target price of VND 62,400/share, based on a blended P/E and P/B valuation framework versus sector averages of 11x and 2.4x.

Catalyst:

•           Construction industry trajectory and solid backlogs sustain revenue growth. We expect NTP’s demand to sustain growth through 2026–2027, driven primarily by the continued expansion of construction activity - including public investment projects, social and commercial housing—and reinforced by ongoing momentum across construction segments.

•           PVC storage supports margin growth in 1H25. PVC price bottomed in 2025 and is expected to increase in 2026, since China terminates the 13% export tax for resin, and the resin production reduces due to non-suffered manufacturers. However, NTP had actively stored the input ingredients, as inventory increased by +43%YoY, equivalent to 6-month production.

•           Healthy asset structure minimizes risk and opens for income growth: Company owns no long-term debt and a net cash-to-assets ratio of 28%. In an environment of expected interest rate hikes in 2026, we estimate that a 100bps increase in rates would translate into an additional VND 30 billion in financial income.