Company Report

ANV has the complete pangasius value chain. Its production capacity runs the spectrum includes: fingerlings, aqua-feed, high-technology farming sites, and processing workshops. As a result, ANV maintains a competitive advantage over competitors and should benefit from the recovery in pangasius demand this year. The final POR16 result is expected to be announced in June 2021, which is a key determinant for the stock. However, we do remain of the view that ANV will receive a reduced anti-dumping (AD) tariff from the US – which should be drastically reduced from the current USD 2.39/kg to merely USD 0.09/kg. Given this favorable assessment, we believe that the Company is poised for a return to the US market. These are strong catalysts for the shares. At VND 24,000/share, ANV is trading at 2021 P/E of 7x (2021 company guidance), which is lower than peer of 8x. 

Improved underwriting profitability. It was well telegraphed that BVH would achieve a substantial profit increase (+292% YoY) for 1Q 2021, achieving VND 590 bn. A great windfall came in the form of a huge provision made on equity investments for same period last year (VND 340 bn). There were, however, improvements in BVH core business. Life insurance premiums grew +13.3% YoY, new business value margins soared to roughly 30%, and non-life insurance underwriting profitability jumped.  Earnings growth could recover from 2022. We believe that the downward trend in interest rates will reverse in 2H 2021. However, this will only impact BVH’s earnings during 2022, as the benchmark rate for mathematical reserves calculation would increase from 1H 2022. Accordingly, NPATMI for 2021 and 2022 are projected to be VND 1.5 tn (-2% YoY) and VND 1.9 tn (+27% YoY), respectively. Reiterate Outperform rating, with increased 1Y target price to VND 71,000/share (from VND 62,700) as we roll our valuation basis to mid-2022 and apply a target P/B ratio of 2.4x (10% lower than the historical average P/B of BVH since listing).

Since our Buy call on 18 April, PNJ shares increased by 13%. At VND 101,900/share, PNJ is respectively trading at 2021 and 2022 P/E of 17x and 15.3x. Our 1Y target price for the stock is VND 115,800 (+14% upside), using a targeted P/E of 18.5x (historical average P/E of 18.3x). We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock. The private placement of 15 mn shares (6.6% of outstanding shares) taking place in Q3’21 should act as a short-term catalyst for the shares. 

At VND 33,300/share, KBC trades at a 2021 P/E and P/B of 11.6x and 1.4x, respectively, and a 2022 P/E and P/B of 5.6x and 1.1x – prior to accounting for a potential private placement plan of 100 mn shares (~21% of current outstanding shares). Our target price is VND 44,100/share, representing 32% upside. Thus, our rating is a BUY for the stock. The key downside risk to our call is longer-than-expected outbreak in Bac Giang and Bac Ninh province, which may cause slower-than-expected land deliveries in the above-mentioned key projects. 

We reiterate our BUY rating on the shares of SZC with our 1Y target price of VND 42,700/ share – which represents a 23.9% upside. With its large available land for lease at low compensation cost, coupled with a sharp increase in rental demand due to the shift in production from China to Vietnam, SZC should be a primary beneficiary. 1Q 2021 results.  Revenue in the quarter was VND 179 bn VND (+ 48.3% YoY) and net income was VND 79.5 bn (+ 48.2% YoY). Majority of land lease revenue was from Chau Duc IP, reaching VND 174.5 bn (+69% YoY) with 20 ha of total leased land. Gross profit margin reached 57% (+7.1% YoY) due to lease price increase of 8% YoY. The cumulative leased area is 470.13 ha, equivalent to an occupancy rate of 43%.

From our previous call in March 2021, HAX share price has increased 28%, given astounding 1Q21 earning results. Demand for Mercedes cars grow strong, aligned with the overall increase in Vietnamese automobile demand, and has been soaring high from the low point set from last year’s pandemic impact. Further, given the prolonged impact of global chip shortage to Mercedes car supply in Vietnam, auto dealers like HAX are gaining significant benefit in terms of higher price bargaining over customers and better margin per car, which could result in a big earnings surprise for FY21. As a result, we upgrade our target price for HAX to VND 40,500/share, which implies 43% upside and equal to a strong BUY rating. We expect HAX total sales and net profit in FY21 to reach VND 6.5 tn (+16% YoY) and VND 215 bn (+75% YoY), respectively. 

After recently attending the IMP AGM on the 22nd of April, we found that the growth driver for both IMP earnings and the share price has been lower in the short to medium term. The target of the EU-GMP approval process for the 4th factory has been seriously delayed to 2023, while the raw pharma material price is rising again amid the complex progress of the global pandemic situation, leading to our decision to lower previous earnings estimate for FY21 and FY22. Also, given that the IMP share price has risen 30% since our last call in January and has reached our previous target price, we decided to rerate IMP from BUY to UNDERPERFORM, lowering the target price to VND 69,000/share. This equates to a slight upside of 1%, plus a dividend yield of 2% from the current share price.

We recently attended MWG’s online analyst meeting and annual general meeting, where 2020 earnings distribution and ESOP was approved. At the meeting, management also discussed its 1Q21 financial results and provided updates on new developments, including the wholesale distribution business, a new product type (bicycles), and labor cost optimization. Although 1Q21 net income growth was modest (+18% YoY compared with Company guidance of 21% YoY), we believe that: 1) the expected gross profit margin expansion (from April 2021); 2) labor cost cutting measures for BHX (from July 2021); and (3) new store openings will enable better net income growth for the remainder of the year for MWG. As a result, we hold our 2021 net sales and net income estimates at VND 126 tn (+16% YoY) and VND 5.1 tn (+30% YoY), respectively, and maintain our target price of VND 165,000 per share. With a 16% potential upside, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged SOTP-based target price of VND165,000. Key risks to our call include, longer-than-expected duration of COVID-19 impacting spending on discretionary products and possible lockdown at the national level.

For 2021, FRT management sets a 320% YoY pretax profit growth target. We believe that this is achievable given 2020 low base, and provided FRT strictly applies cost cutting measures to offset poor mobile phone sales. We estimate 2021 revenue and pretax profit to grow by 7% and 360% YoY, respectively, driven by cost cutting. Between 2022-2023, FRT will continue to aggressively open pharmacies at ~150 new stores per year. Given the massive pharmacy opening campaign (130 new stores) in 2020 without improvement in gross profit margin, it is unclear when the business will break even. As such, we believe it will be difficult for FRT to achieve earnings growth over the 2022-2023 period. We derive a target price for FRT of VND 28,000 per share, and rate the shares MARKETPERFORM.     

HSG posted 2Q21 revenue of VND 10.8 tn, increasing 87.7% YoY. Meanwhile, net profit also reached a new record high of VND 1.0 tn, causing net profit to surge 415% YoY due to strong volume growth and soaring steel prices. We revise our 2021F net profit forecast to VND 2.9 tn (+151% YoY). HSG trades at a 2021 P/E and EV/EBITDA of 6.5x and 4.8x, respectively.  We change our rating for the stock from Outperform to Market perform, albeit revising up our 1-year target price to VND 40,800/share (from VND 28,350) based on a respective target P/E and EV/EBITDA of 7x and 5x. Strong earnings in the 3Q21 (or 2Q21 based on calendar year), driven by a surge in steel price might support share price over the short term. However, a normalization in profit margin is likely in the subsequent quarters, as we do not expect the recent increase in steel price to be sustainable. 

We maintain our Market Perform rating on the shares of VNM, but marginally lower our 1-year target price to VND 107,000/share (from VND 109,000/share) as we lower our target P/E multiple – implying 17% potential upside. Given the lack of expected growth for 2021 and the weak growth outlook for 2020-2024 (NPAT CAGR of 4%), VNM’s growth metrics are now lagging other local listed companies. In 2021, VNM faces dual headwinds: a) Covid-19 impact on demand; and b) a surge in raw material input prices. As such, we apply a lower target P/E of 21x (versus 23x, using VNM’s average 2018-present forward P/E) on average 2021-22F EPS. For 2021, we modestly lower our sales forecast by 1.4% to reflect lower than expected revenue from the school milk program.  Our updated estimates suggest 5.3% YoY and 1.3% YoY revenue and NPATMI growth, respectively, for VNM in 2021. In the short-term, we don’t see any rerating catalysts for the company, and we will monitor the monthly sales closely.