Company Report

The Bank has been delivering strong earnings results over the past several years, backed by robust credit growth, improved NIM, and lower CIR, thanks to digitalization. The 2021 business plan is ambitious but feasible, reinforced by 1Q 2021 business results and the prolonged low-rate environment which lowers overall funding costs. However, a capital raise (equivalent to 9.3% of the Bank’s pre-money charter capital) could register a minor dilutive impact. We raise our PBT forecast +6% for TPB 2021F to VND 5.8 tn (+32% YoY). 2022F PBT is forecast at VND 7.1 tn (+21.9% YoY). We roll forward our valuation to June 2022, and raise our 1Y target price for TPB to VND 37,600/share, which implies 17.7% upside. We reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares of TPB. 

We are upgrading our rating on the shares of BID to Outperform (from Market Perform) given its improving fundamentals and as we roll forward of our valuation to June 22. We lift our 12M target price for BID to VND 48,000/share (previously VND 46,430/share), implying 14% upside potential. For 1Q21, BID posted a pretax profit of VND 3.4 tn (+87.2% YoY, completing 26% of the AGM plan), which was driven by a 1.8% YTD credit growth, a 179% YoY increase in writebacks, and an improvement in CIR. The Bank also accelerated provisioning to improve its asset quality, with NPL ratio remaining at 1.76%, and LLC ratio increasing to its highest level, at 107.6%.  

ACB delivered robust earnings growth of +61.3% YoY during 1Q 2021, in line with our expectation. Growth sprouted from various sources - most notably improvement of the NIM (+63 bps YoY to 4.22%). We believe that the upfront fee from SunLife (USD 370 mn) helped ACB to lower its funding cost during the period. Ratios unfortunately reveal asset quality became somewhat challenged. NPL and provision coverage worsened to 0.9% and 120%, respectively, compared to 0.6% and 160% at year-end 2020. According to management, the surge in NPLs has come from more proactive loan classification with credit quality stabilization some quarters out.  We maintain our estimate of VND 11.8 tn (+22.8% YoY) for 2021, and introduce our PBT forecast of VND 13.9 tn (+18% YoY) for 2022. As we roll forward our valuation to mid-2022, our 1Y target price increases to VND 41,900/share (from the current VND 37,300/share), translating into potential 19% upside. We reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares of ACB. 

DRC recently held its AGM wherein a very conservative 2021 plan with net sales of VND 3.9 tn (+6% YoY) and pretax profit of VND 300 bn (-6% YoY) was approved. We estimate 2021 net sales and pretax profit of VND 4.2 tn (+14% YoY) and VND 471 bn (+47% YoY, 12% higher our previous estimates), respectively, driven by radial tire sales volume growth and reduction in depreciation expense. Being aware of the current radial factory is approaching full capacity,   management proposed to raise radial production capacity from 600K units to 1 mn units, driving earnings growth for the company from 2024. With a higher 2021 earnings and target multiple (from P/E of 9x and and EV/EBITDA of 4.5x to P/E of 10x and EV/EBITDA of 5x), we derive a new target price at VND 27,900 per share (from VND 23,500), representing potential upside of 6%. We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of DRC. 

VHC’s core pangasius export business has encountered difficulties over the past two years, caused by both cyclical factors and pandemic-related vulnerable demand. As a result, the company plans to diversify away from its core business and become more of a F&B company, investing heavily in several projects that should generate sustainable cash flow for the future. VHC has invested in three main projects, namely: (i) increasing its ownership in Sa Giang (SGC); (ii) establishing Thanh Ngoc Fruit (TNG Food Ltd); and (iii) constructing an aqua-feed factory. Meanwhile VHC’s Q1 2021 results were rather disappointing. Most notably, net profit has declined -13.5% YoY. We have nevertheless revised our 2021 forecast to reflect: (i) higher SG&A; and (ii) the acquisition of SGC. We expect VHC to post net income and net profit of VND 8.9 tn (+26.3% YoY) and VND 946 bn (+34.2% YoY), respectively, equivalent to a 3.5% increase in net sales and net profit unchanged compared to our previous forecast. Our 1Y target price on the shares of VHC is VND 43,600/share (+20.8% upside), which represents an ROI of 25% and equivalent to an OUTPERFORM rating

In 1Q21, the group posted revenue of VND20tn (+13.3% YoY) and NPATMI of VND187bn (vs. a loss of VND78bn in 1Q20), which are quite in line with our expectations. Growth was driven by various subsidiaries, such as improved profitability at VCM, higher profit sharing at TCB (+78.9% YoY), decent MCH performance, and a recovery at MML. These positive forces, however, were offset by higher interest expenses and losses at the mining business. In order to finance the previous acquisitions of VCM and TCX, MSN aggressively added leverage resulting in VND56tn of net debt by the end of 1Q21 (vs. just VND22tn at end-2019). The de-leveraging progress will likely be a key focus going forward and serve as a key catalyst for the share price. Post-1Q21, however, we increase our 2021E net sales by 3% and lower our NPATMI by 13.1%. Our revised 2021E revenue and NPATMI now amount to VND100tn (+29.6% YoY) and VND3.3tn (+167% YoY), respectively. We do expect subsidiaries that drove 1Q21 financial results will continue to perform in the coming quarters. We lift our SOTP-based 12-month target price for MSN to VND108,000/share (from VND104,000), using average 2021-22E as our valuation basis. Our new TP implies potential upside of 13%. We maintain our Market Perform rating. 

HDB delivered decent 1Q 2021 results, with a TOI and PBT of VND 4.2 tn (+32.3% YoY) and VND 2.1 tn (+67.9% YoY), respectively. Growth was supported by strong credit expansion of 5% YTD, robust fee income growth (+98% YoY), and a gain from trading bonds (+VND 396 bn vs. a loss of – VND 32 bn in 1Q 2020). Credit quality was reasonably contained. Between 2021 and 2022, we expect pretax profit to grow by a respective +23% and +25% YoY to VND 7.2 tn and VND 8.9 tn. Our estimate for 2021 is lower than AGM guidance of VND 7.3 tn (+25% YoY), primarily due to our lower assumption of credit growth (+20% vs. +26% YoY). Rolling forward our valuation to mid-2022, our 1Y target price on the shares of HDB is VND 34,000/share (previously VND 29,500/share), which translates into a 13.3% upside. We reiterate our Outperform rating on the shares of HDB.

DCM recently held its Annual General Meeting, wherein the management sought approval to pay a cash dividend of 8% on par (5% dividend yield). For 2021, the company set a revenue and pretax profit of VND 7.8 tn (+2% YoY) and VND 210 bn (-71% YoY), respectively, and attributable to the rise in oil prices   and the commencement of the NPK plant (expected in 2Q21). Despite the uptrend in the urea sales price and expected improvement in net financial income, we forecast 2021 earnings to decline -12% YoY, due the increase in oil prices and an expected loss from the new NPK plant (commercial operation expected by May 2021, running at 36% expected utilization rate, below break even utilization rate of ~70%). At VND 16,150 per share, DCM trades at 2021 P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA of 17.1x, 1.4x and 3.1x, respectively. DCM still incurs high non-cash depreciation expenses (VND 1.4 tn vs a pretax profit of VND 627 bn for 2021F), explaining its high PE and low EV/EBITDA. We view DCM as a cash rich company, which likely will enjoy huge earnings growth from 2023 once the urea plant is fully depreciated. 

The 2021 AGM held on Apr 27 approved the annual plan, featuring 20% PBT growth and a 38% increase in charter capital. The Bank also released its 1Q 2021 earnings, which exceeded consensus with total operating income (TOI) of VND 9.1 tn (+45% YoY) and pretax profit of VND 4.6 tn (+109% YoY and 79% QoQ). Solid performance was fueled by all income streams, and reasonably controlled asset quality. The customer base continued to expand by 1 mn (+17% YTD) during 1Q 2021. We forecast MBB to achieve VND 13.6 tn in pretax profit (+28% YoY, completing 106% of the AGM plan) for 2021. For 2022, PBT is expected to reach VND 16.4 tn (+20% YoY). We also roll forward our valuation to June 2022, and our 1Y target price for the shares of MBB is VND 36,000/share (+20% upside). We reiterate our BUY rating on the shares of MBB.

DPM recently held an Annual General Meeting on 26 April 2021, whereby management sought approval to pay a 2020 cash dividend of 14% on par (higher than historical level of 10-12%), anchored on strong 2020 pretax profit growth of 82% YoY. For 2021, management set very conservative revenue and pretax profit growth targets of up 6% YoY and down 48% YoY, respectively. Nevertheless, we forecast revenue and pretax profit to increase by 19% YoY and 4% YoY (+6% and -7% compared with previous revenue and pretax profit estimates as we revise up our assumptions for urea selling prices and related gas input costs). At VND19,000 per share, DPM trades at a 2021E P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA of 11.6x, 0.9x and 2.3x, respectively. We derive a new target price of VND19,700 per share (from VND18,400 per share). With 4% upside to our target price (and a 6.5% 2021E dividend yield), we maintain our Market Perform rating on the shares of DPM.