Company Report

Industry-wise, structural consolidation has removed nearly 1.9mn tons/year of inefficient capacity in the North, while 3Q25 consumption surged 23.1% YoY on export front-loading. Imports fell 4.3% YoY, tightening supply-demand balance and supporting ASP recovery into late-2025.

Looking ahead, DHC’s disciplined procurement, lean cost base, and upcoming Giao Long 3 expansion – introducing Kraftliner and higher-value grades – position it well for structural earnings growth.

At VND 34,050 per share, DHC trades at 10.7x trailing P/E and 1.51x P/B, with a target price of VND 38,300 per share (12.6% upside). We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on respectable fundamentals and resilient profitability.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating with a 12-month target price of VND 37,000/share, implying a target P/B of 1.60x. The forward 2026F P/B of 1.25x presents a compelling entry point, particularly when combined with HDB’s ROE profile and strong medium-term earnings visibility. For context, banks under our coverage trade at an average 2026F P/B of 1.2x with an average ROE of 17%, whereas HDB is expected to deliver ROE of 24.5% in 2026, among the highest in the sector. While asset quality warrants scrutiny, we think that robust credit growth will provide a strong foundation for HDB to sustain profit growth and control its NPL ratio in 2026.

Earnings outlook: We project HDB’s pre-tax profit to reach VND 20.5 tn (+22.6% YoY) in 2025 and VND 24.5 tn (+19.6% YoY) in 2026.

Robust Q3 Performance: GVR delivered VND 9.29 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 2.18 trillion NPAT (+95% YoY), powered by higher rubber sales, improved JV contributions, and VND 131 billion in land compensation from rubber-to-industrial land conversion.

Industrial Parks Offset Rubber Headwinds: Despite a projected 5% YoY increase in rubber ASP, FY26 rubber revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY due to weather-related supply constraints. Meanwhile, industrial land leasing is set to surge 35% YoY to 95 ha, generating VND 1.3 trillion (+30% YoY), led by NTU3 and Bac Dong Phu Phase 2.

Land Conversion Unlocks Structural Growth: GVR is advancing approvals for 23,444 ha of industrial park land by 2030, focusing on southern provinces. For 2026, we forecast VND 3.2 trillion in land transfer revenue (+102% YoY) and VND 2.63 trillion pre-tax profit, assuming 1,000 ha conversion in Dong Nai.

Investment View: With Vietnam’s largest rubber land bank and accelerating industrial park strategy, we value GVR at VND 35,700/share (27.5% upside) and maintain OUTPERFORM.

3Q 2025 results came in quite in line with our expectations, especially on the core items. Specifically, revenue was posted at VND 1.56 trillion +23.4% YoY and 4.5% QoQ, while core PBT (excluding rubber plantation provision expenses) was posted at VND 618 bn, up by 7% YoY. Contribution came from both strong Port segment volume growth as well as Logistics segment growth thanks to stronger charter rate of chartered vessels.

Key projects update: NDV – Phase 3 is put into operation from Oct 2025, GML Phase 1A is expected to start construction from 1Q2026, GML Phase 2B is expected to finalize legal approval in 2026. Rubber plantation divestment is expected to finalize in 1Q2026.

Reiterate OUTPEFORM, maintaining 1Y target price of VND 75,000/share (~18% upside). Key catalysts for the stock include: Positive development on Vietnam-US trade deal negotiation; Gemalink Phase 2A start construction; Rubber plantation divestment; News on bidding on new port projects (Cai Mep Ha, Nam Do Son).

In 3Q 2025, PVD posted impressive results, with consolidated revenue up by 5% YoY and NPATMI up by 53% YoY and 16% QoQ, thanks to strong performance of both Drilling segment and Well services segment. Drilling profitability has recovered near last year’s peak level, with gross profit reaching VND 360 bn, +18% YoY and +28% QoQ. Key drivers include: higher day rate, higher utilization rate, contribution of new rig PVD VIII and higher USDVND exchange rate. Well services also benefit from more demand in domestic oil&gas campaigns, with revenue reaching VND 954 bn +67% YoY, while gross profit reaching VND 236 bn +95% YoY,

Slightly revise up 2025-2026 estimates to account for contribution of new rigs (PVD VIII and PVD IX) as well as higher terminal day rate to reflect a better long-term industry outlook. Specifically, we revise up 2025F revenue to VND 9.7 trillion +4.5% YoY (from VND 8.9 trillion) and NPATMI to VND 883 bn +27% YoY (from VND 805 bn). We also revise up 2026F revenue to VND 11.5 trillion +18.4% YoY (from 10.3 trillion) and NPATMI to VND 1.2 trillion +37% YoY (from VND 1.1 trillion).

Downgrade to MARKET PERFROM (from Outperform). We revise up 1Y target price for PVD to VND 27,400/share (~3% upside) from higher earnings estimates in 2025-2026 as well as higher terminal earnings estimates, but downgrade due to recent strong share performance. PVD remains our top pick for Oil&Gas sector in 2026, and we recommend accumulating the share on dip.

FY25-26 Outlook: Presales: VND 5,733bn in FY25 (+9x YoY from low base), VND 6,961bn in FY26 (+21% YoY), supported by Gladia and upcoming launches. FY25 revenue forecast at VND 5,523bn (+68% YoY), NPAT-MI VND 986bn (+22% YoY), driven by Gladia low-rise handovers and The Privia project. FY26 revenue and NPAT-MI projected at VND 5,806bn (+5%YoY) and VND 1,107bn (+12% YoY).

Project Pipeline: Gladia: 226 low-rise units launched in Oct 2025 (100 units sold, VND 4,000bn). High-rise component (616 units) presales expected in 3Q26. Binh Trung Dong Expansion & Solina (P1): Land clearance completed; launches expected from 2027.

Valuation & Investment View: Upgrade from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM. New 1Y target price: VND 39,800/share (+15% upside), reflecting stronger execution and clearer development plans.

Risks: Large unit sizes and rising supply in 2026 may pressure absorption rates.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating but raise the 12-month target price to VND 14,500/share (from VND 12,800), implying a modest 2% upside. Our valuation horizon is rolled forward to 2026, with NPATMI estimate in that year largely unchanged. Despite projected challenges in 2026, we expect 4Q25 earnings to deliver positive growth.

2025-2026 outlook: We revise 2025 NPATMI upward by nearly 3x, reflecting the delayed earnings contribution from Nhon Trach 3 & 4 (now expected in 2026). For 2026, we forecast NPATMI to decline 79% YoY, despite a 12% YoY EBITDA increase, primarily due to the commencement of Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4 plants. Long-term view remains positive, as this marks Vietnam’s first LNG-fired power project.

PNJ is well-positioned to capitalize on Vietnam’s evolving gold market, supported by regulatory tailwinds. Retail sales growth remains tepid at 4.3% YoY in 3Q25, reflecting soft consumer demand amid elevated gold prices and limited supply. Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to rise through 2026, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, geopolitical risks, and central bank buying. While this may dampen the overall jewelry demand, PNJ could gain market share by securing sufficient gold inventory.

The newly enacted Decree 232/2025/ND-CP allows private firms to produce gold bars and import gold materials, easing supply constraints. PNJ has met key eligibility criteria and is preparing its gold import quota application, due November 15^th. Approval (expected by December 15^th) would enable the company to leverage the new framework and support stronger sales.

Supported by improved retail and gold bar sales driven by expected gold import quota allocation, we forecast net income of PNJ to reach VND 2.68 tn in 2026 (+10% YoY), outperforming the 2% YoY growth forecast for 2025 (excluding one-off items in 2024). By rolling-forward our valuation from 2025F to 2026F, we increase 1Y target price to VND 109,000 per share (from VND 97,500). With a potential upside of 22%, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for PNJ. The company has returned to a positive earnings trajectory from 3Q25, and its 2026 P/E of 12.3x remains attractive compared to the historical average of 18x.

Vinamilk delivered a stronger-than-expected 3Q25 performance with revenue of VND16.97tn (+9.1% YoY) and NPAT of VND2.51tn (+4.5% YoY), marking its first earnings recovery after four quarters of decline. The company achieved 72% of its revenue and 68% of profit targets for 2025, supported by robust exports, improving domestic demand, and disciplined cost management. Modern trade and company-owned stores grew at double-digit rates, offsetting the weaker general-trade channel.

Exports outperformed, with international sales up 32.6% YoY (+25.7% FX-neutral) to VND3.46tn, led by Cambodia. Export contribution reached 20.4% of 9M25 revenue, up 240bps YoY. Gross margin expanded 60bps YoY to 41.8%, aided by lower input costs and better operating leverage.

Vinamilk recorded a one-off associate loss from the Miraka Holding write-off but continues to optimize its portfolio. While 4Q25 is expected to benefit from stable raw material prices and continued export strength, a full domestic recovery hinges on general trade normalization and post-typhoon demand recovery.

We maintain our 2025 forecast which calls for revenue of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and NPAT of VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), with a 2026E NPAT of VND9.5tn (+2.6%). We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating, with a DCF/PER-based 12-month TP of VND65,000/share (14% upside; 7.5% dividend yield).

Sabeco reported 3Q25 net sales of VND6.4tn (-16% YoY, -5% QoQ), marking the third consecutive quarter of volume contraction as weak consumer sentiment and intensified competition continued to weigh on demand. However, Sabeco’s gross profit reached VND2.39tn (+4.7% YoY) in 3Q25, supported by lower malt and rice costs, improved material efficiency, and favorable hedging under ThaiBev’s group procurement. Reported margins remain inflated by consolidation effects but indicate underlying cost discipline.

For 9M25, revenue reached VND19.1tn (-17% YoY) and NPAT VND3.36tn (flat YoY), completing 43% of revenue and 71% of profit targets for 2025. Despite near-term headwinds from post–price-hike softness and weather disruptions, management reaffirmed market leadership and accelerated distribution expansion, adding over 20,000 new general trade outlets through “Project Lightning Strike” and cash-van initiatives.

We fine-tune up our 2025E revenue by 3% to VND27.0tn (-15% YoY), and raise our NPAT by 7% to VND4.55tn (+1% YoY) on better cost control. For 2026, we project revenue of VND27.6tn (+2% YoY) and NPAT of VND4.6tn (+2% YoY), supported by gradual consumption recovery and lower input costs.

Our 12-month target price remains VND55,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 17x target P/E. At the current price of VND46,800, SAB trades at 14x 2026F P/E and offers a 9% dividend yield. With 18% upside potential to our TP, we reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with unchanged 12-month target price of VND 80,000/share (implying a 24% upside), as we do not revise overall 2026 earnings estimate significantly.

9M25 summary: Strong hydropower, new projects added into the investment pipeline

Earnings slightly exceeded our forecasts, due to provision reversal in solar power projects and slightly higher-than-expected occupancy level from the office buildings portfolio.

•           The hydropower performance was in line with our expectations, despite 3Q25 volume outperformance, placing a growth pressure for 2026.

•           REE obtained investment policy approval regarding V1-3 Phase 2 and V1-5 & V1-6 Phase 2 wind power projects (located in Vinh Long province), targeted to commence operation in 4Q26.

•           By end-3Q25, E.town 6 office building (E.town 6) achieved nearly 50% occupancy (vs. a modest level at end-2024).

•           As expected, M&E services witnessed a recovery (especially from 3Q25).

2025 earnings forecast: following 9M25 results, we increase NPATMI by 6%.

2026 outlook: We forecast revenue of VND 11.3 tn (+20% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+17% YoY).

3Q25 Profit Recovery from Last Year’s Low Base: In 9M2025, OIL reported revenue of VND 105.5 tn, up 11% YoY. PBT decreased 6% YoY to VND 460 bn, mainly due to a 34% decline in 1H2025 when global oil prices dropped sharply. However, in 3Q25 alone, PBT surged 219% YoY, showing a clear recovery from the weak base of Q3/2024.

Volume Growth Driven by COCO Store Expansion: During 9M2025, OIL’s total domestic fuel sales volume reached 4.15 million m³/tons, up 4% YoY. Sales through the COCO channel (company-owned, company-operated stores) rose 11% YoY to 1.0 million m³/tons, accounting for 24% of total domestic retail volume. As of September 2025, OIL had opened 80 new COCO stores and targets a total of 112 openings for the year. Consequently, the COCO network is expected to reach around 950 stations by year-end, up 13% compared to the beginning of the year.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of CTR, with 12-month target price of VND 102,000/share (representing 14% upside), on the back of nearly unchanged 2025-2026 earnings forecasts.

9M25 results summary and 2030 target

•           CTR sustained double-digit earnings growth (+12% YoY) during 9M25, in which infrastructure leasing continued to be the segment that witnessed the most solid expansion (+41% YoY revenue growth).

•           Base transceiver station (BTS) construction progress remains on track.

•           Being a reputable solar energy solutions provider, CTR achieved 45% national market share.

•           By 2030, management targets to scale operations across every segment while also exploring new investment opportunities.

Strong 3Q25 Performance. Net sales reached VND 482 billion (+38% YoY), driven by higher rubber output (+25% YoY), improved selling prices (+4.9% YoY), and a surge in rubber wood liquidation (+67% YoY). Net income soared to VND 154 billion (+153% YoY), the highest in three years.

 Robust 4Q25. 4Q25 net profit is projected at VND 206 billion (+160% YoY), fueled by land transfer revenue from Bac Dong Phu Industrial Park (317 ha at VND 1 bn/ha), offsetting a 15% YoY drop in rubber prices. For 2026, revenue and net profit are forecast to hit VND 1,445 billion (+25 % YoY), supported by an 8% increase in rubber volume and a 3% rise in prices.

Long-Term Growth Strategy. DPR benefits from converting rubber land into industrial parks, leveraging land scarcity for sustainable growth.

Investment view: DPR’s extensive land bank offers strong potential for industrial park conversion, especially as demand in Binh Phuoc rises amid high occupancy in nearby provinces. Upcoming infrastructure projects further enhance its outlook. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 46,100 target price (+18% upside).

Reiterate BUY call. Post the 3Q25 results, we roll over our valuation basis to end-2026 using same multiple targets and derive our 12-month TP of VND35,000/share (c.34% upside potential), from VND33,000, based on PER and EV/EBITDA methodology. Catalysts for the share price include: strong 4Q25 earnings delivery with growth of 47% YoY, IPO of HPA and stronger-than-expected steel prices.

3Q25 earnings release: consolidated revenue of VND36.4tn (+7.2% YoY and +1.4% QoQ), NPAT of VND4tn (+32.8% YoY and -5.9% QoQ), slightly lower than our expectation.

We revise down our 2025E NPAT to VND16.5tn (from VND17.1tn), up 37% YoY, on our lower rebar and HRC volume assumptions. We slightly reduce our 2026E NPAT to VND21.2tn (from VND22tn), up 29% YoY.

Downside risks to our call: lower-than-expected steel prices, and sudden input price surge