Company Report

As the share price rose 7% since our previous update, we lower our rating from BUY to OUTPERFORM for FPT, with the unchanged 12-month target price of VND 120,000/share, representing a 17% upside. Our 2026 earnings projection also remains nearly the same. 2025-2026 outlook: While macroeconomic uncertainties are likely to remain significant, we anticipate a solid NPATMI growth of 19% YoY in 2025. For 2026, we expect a steady recovery from the technology segment, reflecting the recent rebound in signed contract value, although uncertainties may persist. Combined with the difficulties in the education segment, we are concerned that the earnings growth may not match 2025 level, but it should remain at double digits. Specifically, we forecast 2026 revenue of VND 79.5 tn (+14% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 10.7 tn (+14% YoY). Unlike 2025, we believe that the technology segment will resume its role as the primary growth driver in 2026.

HT1 reported an appreciable 3Q25 YoY revenue growth of 15.3% to VND 2,037 bn, as well as a strong NPATMI recovery of VND 85.7 bn (+279.9% YoY). Gross profit reached VND 241 bn (+49.1% YoY), with GPM easing slightly to 12.9% from 14% in 2Q25. This performance came primarily from a solid rebound in 3Q25 sales volume (+18.1% YoY), driven by better market conditions and recovery in Vietnam’s construction segment. Easing coal prices also brought notable support to profit margins – a significant 16.6% drop compared to 3Q24.

Nonetheless, stronger infrastructure activity in the South continues to support HT1’s volume recovery. We maintain our FY25 volume growth forecast of +12% YoY, while adjusting ASP and input cost assumptions. For FY26, we expect sales volume to sustain growth momentum carried over from the Southern infrastructure projects, while ASP may remain low as market pressure persists.

At the current price, HT1 is trading at a P/E of 31.79x, P/B of 1.31x, and EV/EBITDA of 7.23x.

Based on a 7x EV/EBITDA multiple and a valuation horizon of FY2026, our revised target price is VND 18,400, and we downgrade HT1 to MARKET PERFORM following notable share price gains during 3Q25.

IMP delivered a resilient 3Q25 with revenue up to VND 574bn (+5% YoY), driven by a 16% surge in hospital (ETC) sales, which offset weaker OTC demand (following early restocking and tax headwinds for small pharmacies). Gross margin improved to 39.6% as higher-value prescription drugs and lower API prices lifted profitability, while net income rose to VND 77bn (+6% YoY) despite higher SG&A and financing costs. Strategically, IMP is expanding its footprint and introducing 20 new SKUs, including a first generic product, supported by another IMP4 line coming online in 4Q25. We believe the market underestimates the sustainability of ETC-led growth and upcoming capacity leverage, providing medium-term upside. With 68% of revenue and 63% of profit targets achieved for 2025, IMP still needs a strong 4Q finish. We expect 2025 & 2026 NPAT to reach 379bn (+18% YoY) and 456bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The stock is trading at P/E ratio of 16.5x 2026F, lower compared to its 5-year historical average of 18x and average regional peers of 20x. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating with a VND 55,000/share target price (12% upside).

Following a trough in 2023, DGW’s earnings began recovering in 2024, with growth expected to continue through 2025 and 2026. The growth drivers include:

•           Mobile phone replacement cycle

•           Increased laptop upgrade demand fueled by AI feature adoption

•           Expansion of new brands/ product lines in the office equipment and home appliance segments.

Supporting the positive outlook, fiscal stimulus measures have been expanded to bolster consumer demand. Notably, the 2% VAT reduction—effective from July 2025 through December 2026—now includes mobile phones, laptops, and home appliances. Additionally, the removal of the 10% special consumption tax on air conditioners starting in 2026 allows these products to benefit from the VAT cut as well. The planned increase in personal and dependent allowance thresholds is also expected to further support household consumption.

We forecast net profit to reach VND 565 billion in 2025 (+26% YoY) and VND 699 billion in 2026 (+24% YoY). While DGW has previously underperformed the VN Index due to elevated valuations, the recent share price correction has brought its 2025–2026 P/E down to 14.6x and 11.8x, respectively—well below its 5-year historical average of 17x. With valuations now more compelling, we upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM) and set a 12-month target price of VND 47,700 per share.

We maintain our target price of VND 29,000/share for NT2. Given a 36% upside potential, we upgrade from OUTPERFORM to BUY rating. The attractive 2025 dividend yield of over 9% can also be a supportive catalyst for the stock.

3Q25 financial highlights: earnings surged 4.8x, slightly exceeded our projection.

•           Output reached a three-year high. We primarily ascribe this to higher national electricity demand.

•           NT2 recorded a VND 24 bn provision reversal, resulting in lower-than-expected SG&A expenses.

•           Gas price declined by 4% YoY, following lower FO price.

2025-2026 outlook: We forecast machinery and equipment to fully depreciate during 4Q25 and support the quarter and 2026 earnings.

•           Our 4Q25 and 2025 NPAT growth estimates for NT2 are 3.3x YoY and 10x YoY.

•           We believe that the natural gas shortage in Southeast Vietnam may be less severe in 2026, aiding 8% YoY volume growth. Over the long-term, we remain our concerns about domestic natural gas shortages.

HAH is well-positioned to capitalize on elevated feeder charter rates and a structural shortage of vessels. We forecast 2025E net revenue of VND 5,151bn (+29.0% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,154bn (+46.2% YoY), underpinned by sustained charter strength and expanded fleet capacity. For 2026, we project revenue of VND 5,440bn (+5.6% YoY) and NPAT of VND 1,347bn (+16.7% YoY), with margins moderating as feeder rates normalize but remain above historical averages.

Based on our adjusted DCF model, we initiate with an OUTPERFORM rating and a one-year target price of VND 63,800/share, implying 17.1% upside.

Reiterate OUTPERFORM rating: We maintain OUTPERFORM rating on HDB’s shares with 1Y target price of VND 36,800 – presenting an upside of 26.9%. HDB trades at 1.67x trailing P/B (1.33x forward), above its 5Y average of 1.5x.

Solid core income growth during 2Q25, including net interest income (+27.2% YoY), net fee income (+493% YoY), Fx trading gains (+37% YoY), and profitable securities trading income of VND 261 bn, which was largely offset by provisioning pressure (+268% YoY).

Solid pretax profit growth: PBT is projected to reach VND 20 tn (+19.9% YoY) in 2025 and VND 24 tn (+19.7% YoY) in 2026. ROE is retained at high level of over 20% in medium-term.

2Q25 results: MSN reported solid 2Q25 earnings with NPATMI of VND 1.03 tn (+105% YoY) on lower financial expenses and higher selling prices for mining products.

Consumer tailwinds ahead: The WCM retail chain is well-positioned to benefit from the shift from traditional to modern trade, which will be catalyzed by the upcoming tax reform in 2026. Meanwhile, distribution disruptions at MCH are expected to normalize in 2H25 following a one-off destocking event in 2Q25.

Valuation: We raise our 1Y target price to VND 98,700, rolling valuation basis to 2026F (from 2025F) and reducing the conglomerate discount to 20% (from 25%). We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

We maintain a constructive outlook on DBD, supported by its scalable, affordable product portfolio versus imported drugs and robust growth in the ETC market. In the medium to long term, new production facilities should secure future capacity, broaden the portfolio, and deliver material tax benefits (four years tax-free, followed by a 50% reduction for nine years). Notably, DBD remains among the few credible Vietnamese pharma players without a foreign strategic partner, an area management has expressed strong interest in pursuing.

We leave FY25–26 earnings forecasts unchanged (2025 NPAT: VND331bn, +16% YoY; 2026 NPAT: VND348bn, +9% YoY). Rolling valuations forward to 2026, we raise our target price to VND62,000/share, derived from a blended DCF and 12x target EV/EBITDA multiple (vs. regional peer M&A multiples of 13x). With 16.3% implied upside, we upgrade DBD to Outperform.

The launch of The Gladia project is expected to be a key growth catalyst for Khang Dien in 2025–26, underpinning both sales value and earnings momentum. However, following the recent share price rally, much of this growth outlook has already been priced in. We therefore downgrade our rating from BUY to Market Perform, with a revised target price of VND 36,500 per share.

FY25–26 Outlook

Sales value is projected to reach VND 5,609bn (+9% YoY) in FY25 and VND 6,844bn (+22% YoY) in FY26, primarily supported by The Gladia.

Revenue is forecast at VND 5,442bn (+66% YoY) in FY25 and VND 5,982bn (+10% YoY) in FY26.

Net profit after tax and minority interests (NPAT-MI) is expected at VND 873bn (+8% YoY) in FY25 and VND 937bn (+7% YoY) in FY26, driven by contributions from The Privia and The Gladia.

Short-Term Outlook

Presales should improve in 2H25 following a stagnant 2024 and 1H25, with The Gladia launch scheduled for September. We expect earnings to grow 18% YoY in 2H25, supported by initial handovers at the project.

Long-Term Outlook

We maintain a constructive long-term view on Khang Dien, supported by its strong reputation as a developer, sizeable land bank in Ho Chi Minh City, proven project execution capabilities, and clear legal framework for its projects.

Following a stronger-than-anticipated performance in 2Q25, we have revised our 2025 net income forecast upward to VND 5.83 tn (+56% YoY, from VND 5.56 tn).

Looking ahead, we introduce our 2026 net income projection at VND 6.88 tn, marking an 18% YoY growth. This forecast is underpinned by:

• Moderate earnings growth in the ICT & Consumer Electronics (CE) segment, supported by the ongoing mobile phone replacement cycle and improved demand on 2% VAT deduction (from July 2025)
• Strong earnings momentum from the grocery segment on aggressive store network expansion and ongoing improved profitability of existing stores

We anticipate the grocery chain will play a pivotal role in driving MWG’s expansion, while ICT & CE will deliver steady but limited growth due to currently high penetration of modern trade (~80%).

MWG’s share price has increased by 21% over the past 4 months. We have rolled forward our valuation to 2026F (previously based on 2025F), resulting in a new SOTP-based target price of VND 87,000 per share (from VND 74,000). As such, we continue to reiterate our BUY recommendation, supported by a compelling 18.2% upside potential from the current market price.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on the shares of REE, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 69,400/share (from VND 71,300/share), implying a 8% upside. The adjustment reflects an 11% downward revision to our 2025 NPATMI forecast, following weaker-than-expected 1H25 results.

1H25 performance: Strong hydropower, weak real estate and M&E

Earnings slightly missed our projections, as:

•           House sales at Light Square project showed little progress

•           Multiple M&E contracts delayed revenue recognition, as they remain under construction

•           Office leasing segment incurred higher-than-expected maintenance costs.

Hydropower recovery was the main driver of 48% YoY NPATMI growth, supported by favorable weather condition YoY, as 1H24 earnings was depressed by El Niño weather pattern.

2025 outlook: Softer 2H earnings ahead

•           We forecast NPATMI of VND 2.4 tn (+18% YoY).

•           This implies flat to slightly negative YoY growth in 2H25, as hydropower plants typically conserve water in the fourth quarter to ensure sufficient water availability for power generation in the following year.

2026 outlook:

•           We project revenue of VND 11.0 tn (+15% YoY) and NPATMI of VND 2.9 tn (+23% YoY),

•           Key drivers:

• Stronger M&E services revenue contribution
• Further revenue recognition from Light Square project
• Rising occupancy at E.town 6 office building
• Ongoing favorable hydrological conditions

Earnings update: BMP delivered solid 2Q25 results with revenue of VND1,308bn (+13.4% YoY) and NPAT of VND330bn (+17.7% YoY). Margins held firm, with GPM at 46.7% and OPM at 31.5%, reflecting stable input costs and pricing discipline. Revenue softened slightly from 1Q25, but profitability improved. Cumulatively, 1H25 revenue reached VND2,691bn (+24.8% YoY) with NPAT of VND617bn (+31.2% YoY).

Operations update: Management remains focused on efficiency rather than expansion, with product-mix adjustments and selective investments aimed at sustaining cash flow. The new CEO is gradually pushing for product innovation and distribution upgrades, though these will likely take time to filter into earnings.

Industry and market outlook: PVC resin prices have inched up since May 2025 but are expected to remain stable through 3Q25, while volatility from crude oil and tariffs bears watching. Chinese demand has shown modest improvement but is unlikely to lift global prices materially. In Vietnam, real estate activity is beginning to stabilize, with early signs of project restarts and supportive housing policy, which should benefit medium-term construction demand.

Investment thesis and forecast: We forecast 2025E net revenue at VND5,490bn (+19.0% YoY) and NPAT at VND1,181bn (+19.2% YoY), implying a net margin of 21.5%. For2026E, we expect net revenue of VND5,650bn (+2.9% YoY) and NPAT of VND1,144bn (-3.2% YoY), with net margins normalizing slightly at 20.2%. The company remains positioned to defend profitability while sustaining healthy dividends.

We reiterate OUTPERFORM on Gemadept with a revised target price of VND 75,000/share (from VND 58,800/share). The upgrade reflects stronger 2025F–2026F earnings forecasts and reduced tariff risks, supporting a re-rating case. Near-term catalysts include: (i) potential tariff hikes at deep-sea ports, (ii) favorable U.S. treatment of transshipment cargo, (iii) rubber plantation divestment progress, and (iv) project milestones such as Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3’s earlier launch and legal clearance for Gemalink Phase 2A.

2Q25 Results: Gemadept delivered strong results, with revenue up 30% YoY/17% QoQ and pretax profit rising ~YoY/16% QoQ to VND 677bn, broadly in line with our expectations. Growth was supported by exporters frontloading shipments to the U.S. ahead of Liberation Day tariff implementation.

Key Discussion Highlights

•           Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 (NDV3): Construction has been accelerated, with operations now targeted for Oct 2025 (vs. Jan 2026 initially).

•           Rubber Plantation Divestment: Negotiations with potential buyers are ongoing, with the deal expected to be finalized soon.

•           Deep-Sea Port Tariff Hike: A tariff increase of around 10% could be implemented as early as 3Q25, with Gemalink among the key beneficiaries.

•           5-Year Strategic Plan: Management is preparing a roadmap for 2026–2030, targeting earnings CAGR at least in line with the 2021–2025 period. The plan will be presented for shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM.