Company Report

Earnings Recap: DHC (Dong Hai Ben Tre) reported YoY growth in 2Q25 NPATMI, recovering from the low base of 2024. Net revenue reached VND 880 billion, down 13.4% YoY but up 3.5% YoY when excluding the VND 165 billion one-off sale in 2Q24. The recovery was driven by improved manufacturing activity, with limited disruption from the US tariff news and policy delays that briefly impacted Vietnam’s export production.

Cost Discipline and Margin Surge: Despite an 8.8% YoY increase in OCC input prices, DHC successfully maintained lean inventory levels in 1H25 and exercised tighter control over procurement through active paper trading management. These efforts helped lift gross profit margin to a two-year high of 15.2% in 2Q25—an impressive 4.4 percentage point increase YoY. We expect further margin upside in 3Q25, supported by low-cost inventory, a more stable export outlook, and improving average selling prices (ASP). Notably, a mandated closure of outdated paper mills in Northern Vietnam-representing roughly 20% of national capacity—may tighten supply and support ASPs in the near term.

Outlook and Forecasts: For 2025, we forecast net revenue of VND 3.6 trillion (-0.4% YoY) and net income of VND 276 billion (+13.9% YoY). In 2026, we project VND 3.7 trillion in revenue (+3.3% YoY) and VND 299 billion in net income (+8.2% YoY). Containerboard consumption (testliner and medium) is expected to reach 307 and 311 thousand tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Valuation and Investment View: DHC is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 10.7x—above its 5-year historical average of 10.3x—but looks more attractive on forward P/E multiples of 9.5x (2025) and 8.1x (2026). The stock’s P/B of 1.35x is also meaningfully below the 5-year average of 2.29x. Though a mid-sized player with just ~3% market share in Vietnam’s corrugated paper market, DHC is positioned for long-term margin and capacity expansion.

2025 AGM highlights

CMG has set an ambitious target of reaching USD 1 billion in annual revenue by 2028, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20–30% over 2025–2028—significantly higher than the 12% CAGR achieved during 2020–2024. This aggressive growth plan is underpinned by a strategic investment phase, particularly in 2023–2024, which has temporarily constrained earnings growth. In 2024, net profit after tax (NPAT) rose by only 6% YoY, reflecting pressure from elevated fixed costs. Management has indicated that this trend may persist in the medium term as the company prioritizes long-term scalability and market positioning.

2024 performance review

CMG reported 12% YoY revenue growth and 6% YoY net profit (NPAT) growth in 2024. The Technology & Solutions and Digital Infrastructure segments were the primary contributors to topline expansion. However, the Research & Education segment continued to operate at a loss and is expected to take additional time to reach breakeven.

2025 guidance

For 2025, CMG targets VND 9.8 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 464 billion in NPAT (+9% YoY). These projections reflect ongoing investment pressures that may continue to weigh on profitability. To support its long-term growth ambitions, CMG has opted to suspend cash dividends for 2024. Notably, the company has recently received investment approval for a hyperscale data center project, reinforcing its commitment to infrastructure expansion.

HT1 is well positioned to benefit from shifting demand to the South, its core market. The company maintains a strong brand presence with high product consistency. With demand increasingly concentrated in Southern projects, HT1’s scale and location give it a competitive edge. For 2H25, we expect stable pricing, improved input cost management, and volume growth to support continued earnings recovery. We revised FY25 forecasts to VND 7,987 bn in revenue (+8.5% YoY) and VND 258 bn in NPAT (+296% YoY), and FY26 to VND 8,691 bn in revenue and VND 316 bn in NPAT (+22.1% YoY).

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on HT1 and raise our target price to VND 15,700/share, based on a 6.0x EV/EBITDA target multiple, implying a 12.1% upside from current levels. HT1 is well-positioned to benefit from accelerating infrastructure disbursement and the recovery of the property market in southern Vietnam. The company boasts a long-standing brand reputation in the region and consistent product quality. Although competition in the domestic market remains intense due to a supply surplus-particularly in Northern and Central Vietnam-the pressure in the southern market is more subdued, thanks to lower capacity and rising demand.

Strong 2Q25 performance enabled 1H25 cumulative earnings to exceed both the company’s full-year guidance and our previous forecast.

With national electricity demand projected to accelerate in 2H25, NT2 is well-positioned to benefit from increased mobilization by EVN.

Long-term concerns persist regarding domestic natural gas shortages. Approval of LNG usage remains a critical factor for NT2 to recover its high generation capacity.

We revise our rating on NT2 from BUY to OUTPERFORM, following a ~9% share price rise since our last update. Our 12-month target price remains unchanged, at VND 25,000/share. While we have raised our NPAT estimates for 2025-2026, we maintain a cautious stance due to ongoing risks related to domestic natural gas supply.

1Q25 Earnings Update: HAH's 1Q25 earnings showed strong YoY growth, while QoQ earnings and profit margins declined due to seasonal effects. Meanwhile, HAH expanded its fleet by acquiring a 1,700-TEU vessel and ordering two 3,000-TEU ships for future delivery.

Industry Updates: Although the recent 90-day tariff truce between China and the US has resulted in an 46% MoM increase in the WCI, future trends of freight will likely depend on the outcomes of trade negotiations. Time charter for 1700-TEU size vessel remains firm at high level thanks to undersupply condition for this specific size.

Downgrade to MARKET PERFORM (from BUY): Our DCF model projects a one-year target price of VND 64,300 per share, considering the recent conversion of the convertible bond. This suggests an 3% downside, thus we downgrade to MARKET PERFORM rating for the stock. The stock remains our favorite play for container shipping on listed market.

3-6 month outlook: We expect charter rate and spot rate to remain at high level toward the year end due to current disruptions (Suez attack, Middle East destability, Trump tariff uncertainty…), so earnings outlook for 2H 2025F remains positive but with lesser YoY growth due to higher base in 2H2024.

Recent positive developments surrounding NVL’s project status may act as a re-rating catalyst for MBB, potentially resolving the lingering overhang risk. In the first five months of 2025, MBB reported robust parent-level profit before tax (PBT) of VND 11.9 trillion, marking a 16% year-over-year increase. This performance was underpinned by solid year-to-date credit and deposit growth of 6% and 7%, respectively—closely aligned with our full-year consolidated forecast of VND 33.4 trillion (+16% YoY).

Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate continued strong growth of 18% YoY, driven by a strong credit expansion (+28% YoY), a slightly lower net interest margin (NIM) of 3.82%, and a reduced credit cost of 0.95%. As a result, return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain at 22%, positioning MBB as the second-highest among banks under our coverage.

Reflecting these positive dynamics, we revise our target price-to-book (P/B) multiple for MBB to 1.3x (up from 1.25x) and roll forward our valuation base to mid-2026. This adjustment yields a new 12-month target price of VND 30,700 per share, up from VND 26,800. Since our Buy recommendation in April, the stock has appreciated by 23.8%. With a remaining upside potential of 18.5%, our rating on MBB is Outperform.

We upgrade our rating for NT2 from OUTPERFORM to BUY, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 25,000/share (from VND 21,500/share) (representing 33% upside). The upgrade is driven by our higher NPAT forecasts, now up 18% for 2025 and 65% for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected profit margins.

Despite softer top-line performance, earnings are poised to outperform, backed by solid contracted volumes: During April-May 2025, NT2 witnessed weaker-than-anticipated revenue and volume, reaching VND 1.4 tn (-7% YoY) and 554 bn kWh (-25% YoY). Meanwhile, Qc will likely remain steady for the quarter (with 21% YoY growth), implying that NT2 might achieve a higher-than-expected 2Q25 NPAT. We estimate that it could achieve VND 200-250 bn (well above our previous estimate of VND 130-160 bn). Accordingly, we revise up earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026.

5M25 period saw a transition in the national power generation mix, with Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) favoring hydropower, which is more cost-efficient than thermal sources. Additionally, the recent 4.8% increase in EVN’s average electricity price is likely to boost its profitability in 1H25, strengthen the likelihood that EVN will recover forest environmental service fees for power plants, including NT2.

In May 2025, Hoa Sen Group (HSG) recorded galvanized steel sales of 157,000 tons, reflecting a 2.7% decline month-over-month (MoM) and a 13% drop year-over-year (YoY). The average selling price (ASP) remained stable at VND 20.1 million per ton. Monthly revenue reached VND 3.2 trillion, while net profit after tax (NPAT) came in at VND 104 billion, marking a 17% MoM increase. This improvement lifted the net margin to 3.2%, potentially driven by enhanced cost control and strong domestic market competitiveness of HSG’s products.

Vietnam Steel Sector Update: Total steel consumption in Vietnam for the first four months of 2025 reached 10.4 million tons, up 11.2% YoY, outperforming initial industry expectations. This growth was supported by robust public investment, a recovering real estate market, and resilient foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement. Notably, domestic galvanized steel consumption (excluding exports) surged by 36% YoY, indicating strong internal demand.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG. The target price is adjusted to VND 18,300/share (from VND 18,000/share), reflecting updated 2025 NPAT estimates of VND 701 billion, a 37.4% YoY increase (previously VND 604 billion).

In 2025, both electricity output and net profit after tax (NPAT) are projected to recover gradually, with YoY growth of approximately 9% and 5%, respectively. This improvement is expected to be supported by contributions from all power plants across the portfolio. Additionally, PGV is anticipated to continue optimizing the thermal power segment by reducing heating rates, thereby enhancing long-term operational efficiency.

It is important to note that the NPAT target does not account for potential FX compensation income exceeding VND 5 trillion, related to the remaining amount from 2019 and the period from 2020 to 2024. This amount represents roughly 35% of the company’s consolidated book equity or approximately 25% of its current market capitalization. In the short term, recognition of this income may be delayed due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding EVN’s financial position.

Furthermore, the company reported that electricity output for the first five months of 2025 reached 10.8 billion kWh, marking a modest 0.5% YoY increase. Preliminary profit before tax (PBT) for the same period was VND 470 billion, achieving over 75% of the corresponding full-year guidance.

MSN’s 2025 earnings growth is expected to be fueled by continuous improvement in its core consumer-retail business, buttressed by its meat business given elevated pork prices and reduced losses in the non-core mining business. Notably, Winmart's grocery chain reached its breakeven point during 2024, demonstrating the efficiency of its business model. This milestone establishes a strong foundation to accelerate expansion of its store network, as the market continues to shift from traditional wet markets to modern trade grocery stores. Given the 1Q25 earnings, we believe that MSN will exceed base case earnings guidance for 2025. We forecast 2025 NPAT and NPAT-MI of MSN at VND 5.4 tn (+26% YoY, from VND 5.3 tn) and VND 2.7 tn (+36% YoY, from VND 2.8 tn).

MSN has implemented a corporate restructuring, resulting in an adjustment of ownership stakes in key subsidiaries. This strategic change simplifies its ownership structure and provides liquidity for exit by external investors in MSN’s unlisted subsidiaries (The CrownX and Masan Consumer Holdings). Following the change in corporate structure, MSN’s indirect ownership of MCH decreased from 67.4% to 66%, while its stake in WCM increased from 78.7% to 85.4% (via increased ownership in The CrownX). With a decrease in ownership by external shareholders at The CrownX, financial obligations associated with the CrownX put option are expected to ease. This reduction should help alleviate pressure on MSN's cash flow, providing greater financial flexibility.

Given MSN’s encouraging earnings growth outlook coupled with the reduced pressure on cash flow, we rate the shares as OUTPEFROM, but with a lower 1Y target price of VND 81,600/share (from VND 86,500/share).

We reaffirm our Outperform rating on TCB shares and raise our 12-month target price to VND 36,400 (from VND 31,400), representing an 15% upside. This upward revision reflects our view that the anticipated IPO of TCBS could act as a significant revaluation catalyst for TCB’s investment portfolio.

We view this valuation adjustment as strategically important, given TCBS’s growing contribution to group earnings—accounting for approximately 8.5% to 17% of consolidated profit. TCBS continues to strengthen its position in the competitive securities market through its non-brokerage model, wealth management technology, and advanced digital platform.

Additionally, we anticipate a recovery in the real estate sector beginning in 2025, supported by easing regulatory constraints and a low-interest-rate environment. This should unlock pent-up supply and stimulate demand, providing a tailwind for TCB’s core earnings growth.

Finally, we believe that a clearly communicated IPO roadmap for TCBS could serve as a near-term catalyst, further enhancing investor sentiment and driving share price appreciation.

We expect the bank’s pretax profit to attain VND 31.5 tn (+14.5% YoY) in 2025 and VND 37.6 tn (+19.2% YoY) in 2026.

We downgrade our rating on GAS shares to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), despite raising our 12-month target price to VND 71,900 (from VND 65,300), implying an 10% potential upside. The revision reflects over 10% gain in share price since our last update. Our higher target price is driven by upward revisions to our 2025 earnings forecasts, primarily due to increased LPG volume assumptions and anticipated reversal of bad debt provisions.

1Q25 performance: GAS’s first-quarter 2025 results slightly exceeded our expectations, primarily due to marginally higher-than-anticipated LPG volumes. Despite the quarterly earnings growth, we estimate that dry gas volume declined by over 10% YoY, largely driven by reduced demand from electricity sector clients.

2025 management guidance: Management has issued conservative guidance for 2025, targeting total revenue of VND 74 trillion (-30% YoY) and net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 5.3 trillion (-50% YoY). However, preliminary results for the first five months of 2025 posted 9%–11% YoY growth in both revenue and profit. Notably, GAS has consistently outperformed its annual guidance over the past eight years.

Short-term strategy: To mitigate the impact of declining dry gas revenues, GAS is expanding its international presence, with a particular focus on the LNG and LPG segments.

Long-term strategy: The company remains committed to the exploration of new gas fields and continued investment in gas infrastructure as key drivers of long-term growth. In parallel, GAS is advancing green energy initiatives to support Vietnam’s transition toward a cleaner energy mix.