Monthly Market Outlook

Monthly Market Outlook
Monthly Market Review_Mar2019

The VN Index gradually increased for the third month in a row, climbing to 980.78 points in March 2019 and adding 1.58% MoM (+15.29 points). The stock market managed to marginally increase during the first half of the month despite the decline in the wider global stock market due to re-emerging concerns over global growth slowdown, especially in China and the EU. However, the VN Index did dip nearly -2% on 21 March 2019 alone on inverted yield curve fears, and was on a downward trend by the end of March. Total trading value of the 3 stock exchanges (order-matching) in Feb was ~$191 mn USD (+3.1% MoM). Based on SSI Research coverage, 2019 net profit growth of Vietnam listed companies is estimated to be at 12.2% YoY. As of 29 March 2019, the Vietnam stock market was trading at metrics of 14.5x 2019 PER.

05/04/2019

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Monthly Market Review_Feb2019

The VN Index continued its uptrend, climbing to 965.47 points in Feb 2019 and adding 6.02% (54.82 points). Despite only 3 weeks of trading, liquidity surged strongly by 74.4% MoM from a low base in January, when liquidity was somewhat absent before the long Lunar New Year holiday (from 2 Feb to 10 Feb). Total trading value of the 3 stock exchanges in Feb was ~$186 mn USD, higher than the average figure of $162mn USD in Q4 2018. We see strong fund flows from foreign investors, surfacing through vehicles such as ETFs, participatory-notes, and active funds. Some retail investors also got back into the stock market, and their sentiment improved significantly thanks to (1) strong net buying of foreign investors and (2) positive performance of global markets.

07/03/2019

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Monthly Market Review_Jan2019

The VN Index got off to a good start in the first month of 2019, adding 2.03% (18.11 points) to close out the month at 910.65 points. Liquidity was a bit absent before the long Lunar New Year holiday (from 2 Feb to 10 Feb), with the average daily trading value during this time just at $106.5 mn USD (-30.5% MoM) across the 3 domestic stock exchanges. Foreign investors maintained a net buying position into the holiday of $67 mn USD (vs. $15 mn USD in December 2018). Top net-buying stocks included VNM, MWG, VCB, VRE, STB, MSN, and PVS. Based on SSI Research coverage, 2019 net profit growth of Vietnam listed companies is estimated to be at 13.3% YoY. As of 31 Jan 2019, the Vietnam stock market was trading at metrics of 13.5x 2019 PER.

18/02/2019

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Monthly Market Review_Dec2018

The VN Index declined throughout the month of December, closing out the month at 892.54 points (-3.67% MoM). During 2018, the VN Index significantly fluctuated, and resulted in shedding -9.32% by year end. Liquidity improved compared to November, with an average daily trading value reaching $153.4mn USD (+12.3% MoM) on 3 domestic stock exchanges. Foreign investors maintained a net buying position, albeit at a lower level of $15 mn USD (vs. $60.4 mn USD in November). Foreign investors net sold amongst the 2 main boards ($21 mn USD), creating heavy selling pressure across some large caps including VCG, CTG, HPG, VJC, VIC, NVL, and VHC. However, foreign investors ended up as net buyers on the Upcom ($36mn USD), mainly thanks to a one-off transaction event in which a foreign investor purchased ~2.96 mn shares of VTP, with a total value of $15.83 mn USD on 20th Dec 2018. Based on SSI Research coverage, 2018 & 2019 net profit growth of Vietnam listed companies is estimated to be at 20.3% YoY and 18.3% YoY. On 28 Dec 2018, the Vietnam stock market is trading at metrics of 14.8x 2018 PER and 12.5x 2019 PER.

08/01/2019

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