Sector Report

The dairy sector gained only 0.5% in terms of market capitalization in 2019, underperforming the VN Index which rose by 7.7%. The VNM share price increased in tandem by just 0.72% on low 2019 earnings growth, while the QNS share price dropped by –20.5% due to continuous selling pressure of internal shareholders. Its earnings went flat YoY. Meanwhile, the GTN share price surged 84.5% in 2019, which was sparked by the VNM acquisition. Overall, sector performance is slightly behind our Neutral recommendation, set at the beginning of 2019. 

The State Bank of Vietnam (the SBV) issued Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN to replace Circular 36/2014 (and its related revision), which covers operational safety ratios for the banking sector. We are focusing on two changes, namely the reduction of the ratio of short-term funds used for medium and long-term lending (from the current 40% to 30%), and the elevation of the risk ratio of real estate-related consumer loans, from the current 50% to a maximum ceiling of 150%. Circular 22/2019 will become effective on Jan 1st, 2020, with a transitional period of 6 months (except in the case of the loan deposit ratio (LDR), with the new limit being 85% for both state-owned and joint-stock banks). In this particular case for LDR purposes, the transitional period is 2 years (by Jan 1st, 2022).

The trend is crystal clear for deep water seaport developments in Vietnam at the moment. These ports are equipped with a deep water draft of 12m to 15m in depth, equipped to handle large vessels of over 8,000 TEUs. Market demand is leading this trend of additional demand for deep seaports in Vietnam.

As noted in our previous report on Industrial Park sector, FDI inflows into Vietnam continue to remain resilient amidst an escalation of U.S – China tensions. U.S. concerns of Chinese-origin tech elevated to a national security issue provides an opportunity for further supply chain relocation to other countries to service the U.S. market. This of course includes Vietnam, and this unfolding trend will diversify the domestic industrial sector, and increase production value through a technological upgrade in manufacturing processes. Various FTAs including the CPTPP have already taken effect since early 2019, and the EU-Vietnam FTA is expected to take effect in late 2019. This will consummate increased access for Vietnamese manufacturing exports, further attracting foreign investment interests in the process.

Banking sector increased by 8.4% YTD, slightly underperforming the VN Index (+10.6% as of 20 May 2019). Only EIB, VCB, and TPB outperformed the VN Index. Performance of banking sector is still in line with our Neutral view for this sector in 2019. Credit growth reached +4.44% YTD as of 29 April 2019 vs. 4.3% YTD as of April 2018 and vs. 2019 credit growth guidance of 14% YoY. By the end of March 2019, reported NPL ratio was 2.02% & adjusted NPL ratio (including VAMC bonds + potential bad debt) was 5.88%. As of May 2019, there are 7 banks that comply with Basel II: VCB, VIB, OCB, MBB, VPB, TPB, and ACB

The State Bank of Vietnam is seeking industry opinions in order to gain insights for the draft Circular amendment to Circular No. 43/2016/TT-NHNN of the Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam. The survey regarding the Circular is about consumer lending regulations for finance companies.

The banking sector in Q3 continued to maintain strong profit performance recorded earlier in 1H2018 (+52.2% YoY) and in line with our forecast, as stated in our previous banking sector updates. This is represented within the business results of the Top 12 listed banks under our coverage, with the total PBT up to Q3increasing+39% YoY. Such PBT growth was driven by a robust growth of +19.8% YoY in net interest income (NII), and a +40.5% YoY growth in Non-interest income (Non-NII).

Among the top 12 listed banks under our coverage, only LPB recorded losses due to rising interest expenses and weak investment results. CTG and VPB are two banks with single digit earnings growth due to soaring costs for credit provisions. Other banks booked very high earnings growth. 

From the peak in early October 2018, the Brent crude oil price plunged by almost -35% to the current level of below $60/bbl. The sharp oil price drop could be attributed to the following: (1) Iranian output did not decrease significantly, as per US sanctions the US still allows a number of its allies to continue import crude from Iran and (2) the demand growth forecast for crude in 2018/2019 was trimmed by both OPEC and IEA, as these organizations forecasted slower global economic growth and trade war concerns and (3) the market has become more skeptical regarding the effectiveness of the agreement to cut 2019 output by OPEC and its allies while there is always a potential supply hike from shale oil.