Company Report

In 2024, FPT delivered an improvement in revenue and NPAT of VND 62.9 tn (19.4% YoY) and VND 9.4 tn (21% YoY). Meanwhile, PBT grew by 20.3% YoY. All these figures nearly exactly matched our respective forecasts.

Technology segment was the main growth driver, accounting for over 60% and 45% of total revenue and PBT.

We currently recommend a BUY rating for FPT with a 12-month target price of VND 186,300/share (representing 21% upside).

CTR released 2024 results, with an improvement in revenue of VND 12.6 tn (+12% YoY) and NPAT of VND 539 bn (+4% YoY). Both figures are equivalent to 101% of our respective 2024 forecasts (in line with our expectations). Overall gross profit margin achieved 7% (vs. 7.9% in 2023), primarily due to the lower profit margin from the construction segment. For 4Q24, the company achieved VND 3.6 tn (+10% YoY) of revenue and VND 156 bn (+3% YoY) of NPAT. Key takeaways from 2024 results:

We currently have a MARKET PERFORM rating for CTR, with a 12-month target price of VND 135,000/share.

With an improvement in 4Q24 PBT to VND 5.7 tn (12.4% YoY, or 17% QoQ), ACB accomplished 2024 earnings guidance of VND 21 tn (5% YoY), in line with our quarterly estimate. Such earnings were driven by the recovery in NII (12.6% YoY), NFI (19.5% YoY), better OPEX control (-9% YoY), and lighter credit provision (-54% YoY).

We currently hold a BUY rating for ACB, with a 1Y TP of VND 31,000. This presents a potential upside of 22.5%, and a potential dividend yield of 4%. ACB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.3x, under its 5Y average of 1.7x.

TCB recorded 4Q24 pretax profit of VND 4.7 tn (-18.7% YoY, or -35% QoQ), below our 4Q24 projection of VND 5 tn, due to the surprised reduction in NIM (-39bps QoQ), NFI deceleration (-41.4% YoY, or -25% QoQ), higher operating expenses (+38% QoQ) and banca penalty fees of VND 1.8 tn. Despite the humble 4Q24 business results, TCB still achieved 2024 PBT of VND 27.5 tn (+20.3% YoY), beating earnings guidance.

We currently hold a BUY rating for TCB shares with 1Y TP of VND 28,700, presenting an upside of 16.7%. TCB is trading at the trailing P/B of 1.1x, under its historic average of 1.4x since 2018.

VPB highlighted with a consolidated PBT of VND 6.2 tn (+127% YoY and 18.6% QoQ), beating our projection of VND 5.2 tn, driven by NIM revival (+21bps QoQ) and recovery income (+47% YoY). For 2024, the consolidated PBT reached VND 20 tn (+82% YoY), with a better asset quality in terms of overdue debts (-4% QoQ) and NPL ratios of 4.19% (vs 4.8% in 3Q24).

For parent bank, VPB recorded 4Q24 pretax profit of VND 5.2 tn (+109% YoY, or 14% QoQ), mainly thanks to NIM improvement (+19bps QoQ), better NFI (+76% QoQ) and recovery income (+14.5% QoQ). As such VPB ended 2024 with a solid PBT growth of 35.6% YoY to VND 18.3 tn.

We currently hold an OUTPERFORM rating for VPB shares with 1Y TP of VND 23,400 per share. VPB is trading at trailing P/B of 1.07x, below its historical P/B of 1.63x since 2017.

Better 4Q24 performance driven by the handover of Gems Skyworld’s units: Revenue was VND 1.5 tn, up 48% QoQ and 7.1% YoY. NPATMI reached VND 154 bn, a significant increase of 397% QoQ and 228% YoY, driven by the handover of 143 units in Gems Skyworld.

Cumulatively, 2024 revenue and NPATMI totaled VND 4.69 tn and VND 250 bn, rising 25.8% and 45.3% YoY respectively, and exceeding company's guidance by 120% and 111% respectively, mainly due to profits from Dat Xanh Services and unit deliveries in Opal Skyline and Gems Skyworld.

Positive 2025 outlook with sales launch of DXH Riverside and Gems Skyworld. DXG plans to launch sales for DXH Riverside in Thu Duc City and relaunch Gems Skyworld in Dong Nai. Key projects like DXH Riverside and Binh Duong projects are progressing well, with sales expected to start in 2025.

Non rating recommendation but we see upside potential from new project launches. We believe DXG is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of the Southern Vietnam real estate market, with key projects having already received legal approvals and set to be ready for sales in 2025.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM recommendation, with a target price of VND 46,100/share, representing an 18.7% upside. DPR's large land plots of 1.619ha in various locations in Binh Phuoc province present substantial opportunities for conversion into industrial parks given the high occupancy rates in Binh Duong (94%) and Dong Nai (92%) province and additional infrastructural enhancements, such as the North-South Expressway stretching from Gia Nghia in DakNong to Chon Thanh in Binh Phuoc, and the route from Ho Chi Minh City – Thu Dau Mot – Chon Thanh.

Strong profit Growth Fueled by Natural Rubber Prices in 4Q24. DPR’s net income rose strongly by 42% YoY to VND 141 bn driven by the rubber segment. Revenue from natural rubber surged to VND 319 bn (+18.8% YoY) fueled by a sharp 47.7% YoY hike in rubber prices as global demand for natural rubber is projected to outpace supply by 8% YoY amid lower volume from Thailand and Indonesia.

Bac Dong Phu IP (Phase 2) is expected to drive growth for DPR in 2026. The government approved the investment for the project in January 2025. We expect Bac Dong Phu IP (Phase 2) to generate a pre-tax profit of VND 1.08 trillion from its total leasing area, with leasing expected to commence in 2026. We project Bac Dong Phu IP (Phase 2) to generate a pre-tax profit of VND 1.08 tn from its total leasing area. Leasing is expected to commence in 2026, with a lease price set at $75 USD/sqm/leasing period.

We maintain our BUY recommendation on PNJ with unchanged net income growth estimate of 18% YoY for 2025 driven by market share gain and easing gold shortage: We expect PNJ market share gain trend will still continue, helping retail sales of PNJ to increase by 14% YoY in 2025. The gold shortage issue might still linger in 2025, though it might not be as severe as in 2024. We hence expect the blended gross profit margin of PNJ to improve in 2025 due to more retail revenue in the sales mix, a less severe gold shortage, and the absence of inventory write down. Net income is projected at VND 2.5 tn (18% YoY, unchanged). As a result, we maintain our BUY recommendation on PNJ with a 1Y target price of VND 123,000 per share, featuring an upside of 28%. 

In 4Q24, DRC recorded net sales of VND 1.1 tn (2% YoY). Main drivers below.

Export sales (51% of the total revenue in 4Q24) declined by -13% YoY due to the imposition of import tax by Brazil (from 2Q23, Brazil accounted for approx. 44% of export revenue) and high freight costs. Although sales to the US (accounted for ~28% of export revenue) increased, brought on by clients diversifying product origin from Thailand to Vietnam prior to the imposition of anti-dumping tax (effective as of this year), this could not offset the decline in sales to the Brazilian market. Export sales volume of truck bus radial (TBR) and passenger car radials (PCR tires) dropped to 131k units (-13% YoY) and 36k units (-12% YoY).

Domestic sales (49% of the total revenue in 4Q24) recovered by 24% YoY from last year low base, back in time DRC’s clients faced financial difficulties due to tight credit. However, tires sold on domestic market are mainly bias tires, which are suffered from the gradual transition from bias to radial tires. Hence, it might be difficult for domestic sales to maintain growth momentum.

We are establishing a new target price on the shares of PVD at VND 28,700/share (~20% upside) [previous target VND 32,000/share] and are reiterating our OUTPERFORM rating. Most recent result were impressive, as 3Q24 revenue and NPATMI grew 77% and 21%, respectively, as all segments posted strong results.  PVD recently announced an investment in a new jack-up rig, which is expected to become operational at the end of 2025. We also anticipate 25% YoY NPATMI growth of 4Q 2024 as well as a potential one-off gain over the near-term associated with PVD’s potential rig/asset divestiture to act as share price catalyst. We believe that the recent share price correction presents an excellent opportunity to accumulate the shares.

We increase our target price on the shares of MCH to VND 260,000/share (+12.1% upside), (from VND 235,300/share), and reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating. Based on the robust results for the first three  quarters of the year, we increase our forecasts for both 2024 and 2025, as gross profit margin expansion proved stronger than our expectation. For 2024, we expect net sales and NPATMI to reach VND 32 tn (+13.7% YoY) and VND 8.1 tn (+14% YoY), respectively. This is 3.7% higher than our previous NPATMI forecast. For 2025, we expect net sales and NPATMI to reach VND 32.3 tn (+13.1% YoY) and VND 9.2 tn (+13.3% YoY), respectively, which outperforms other listed F&B players in our coverage universe.

During 3Q24, MCH achieved double-digit sales and NPATMI growth, driven by accelerated innovation for beverage and home personal care (HPC), while premiumization continues to drive growth in seasoning and convenience food. Longer-term, we expect a reshuffling of distribution strategies to extend the local customer reach and Go-Global for exports to drive sustainable growth. The company intentionally reduced trade promotion on the GT channel to focus on brand building activities such as expanding coverage of retailers and developing e-commerce platforms.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on VHM with a new target price of VND 47,400/share. 

Amendment of Cooperation Agreement with Vingroup has accelerated Vinhomes’ plan to launch new projects. Following the decision to amend the cooperation agreement with Vingroup, VHM is taking decisive action, including plan to acquire Vinhomes Wonder Park from Vingroup and to launch two new megaprojects: one in Long An and Quang Ninh province each, as well as a smaller project in Haiphong in 2025. Consequently, we anticipate presales to reach VND 139.6 tn during 2025, reflecting an 8.1% YoY increase. This follows robust growth of 48.4% during 2024, with estimated presales of VND 129.1 tn.

For FY2024, we expect VHM to achieve revenue and NPATMI of VND 98.7 tn (-4.7% YoY) and VND 34.4 tn (+3.0% YoY), respectively, driven primarily by strong recognition of Vinhomes Royal Island. For FY2025, revenue and NPATMI are forecasted to be VND 102.5 tn (+3.8% YoY) and VND 34.2 tn (-0.4% YoY), respectively, with major earnings streaming from Royal Island and new projects, including Wonder Park in Hanoi and Duong Kinh in Haiphong. Our revised 2025 NPATMI forecast is lower than previous estimates of VND40.9 tn due to reduction in profit contribution of Vinhomes Global Gate.

Revenue increased to VND 10.5 tn (26% YoY), while PBT jumped to VND 197 bn (146x YoY). Notably, FPT Shop earnings revert back to profitability in the quarter (PBT of VND 40 bn in 3Q24) after 6 consecutive quarters incurring losses. Meanwhile, Long Chau continued to post solid earnings, despite aggressive new openings of both drugstores and vaccine centers.

2024-2025 is and will likely end up being the early phase of a new earnings cycle, wherein FPT Shop earnings will revert back to profitability after a prolonged period of destocking and cost optimization, while the Long Chau  will continue to achieve strong performance from scaling up its store network and profit margin expansion. Given 3Q24 earnings growth momentum, we revise 2024-2025 net income to VND 392 bn (vs a loss of VND 329 in 2023, from VND 360 bn) and VND 529 bn (+35% YoY, from VND 511 bn). Long Chau pharmacy network expansion (from 1849 stores as of 3Q24 to over 3,000 in 2-3 years) and profitability improvement (from 1.9% in Q1-Q3 ‘24 to >3% when stores reach optimum level) should be the main growth driver for FRT over the long term. The Long Chau vaccine business should further aid growth, though its contribution in Long Chau is quite small (4%-9% of Long Chau 2024-2025 revenue). Given the promising earnings outlook, we call for an OUTPERFORM rating on FRT, with a target price of VND 215,000 (18% upside).

HSG recorded a net loss of VND 186 bn in 4QFY24, a contrast to the positive profit of VND 438 bn in 4QFY23 and VND 273 bn in 3QFY24, and lower than our estimate due to the decline in steel price and the depreciation that affected the export price. The steel sales volume of the company increased strongly by 27.9% YoY to 499k tons in the recent quarter, albeit falling by 3.1% QoQ due to seasonal factor. Cumulatively, HSG attained a net profit of VND 510 bn for the whole of FY2024, an increase by 17x off the low base in the previous year.

For FY2025, we expect the net profit to increase by 37% YoY to VND 699 bn thanks to a slight increase by 2% YoY in sales volume, and the improvement in gross margin due to a more stable steel price and the increase in proportion from domestic channel that usually carries a higher margin.

Despite the strong earnings growth potential in 2025, the 2025F PE and EV/EBITDA forwards are still demanding at 16.7x and 7.1x respectively. As a result, we maintain our current MARKET PERFORM rating for the stock with 1 -year target price of VND 20,000/share based on target PE and EV/EBITDA of 14x and 7.5x respectively.