Company Report

We maintain a Market Perform rating on SAB. Near-term margin support from favorable raw material hedging should limit downside risks, although these benefits appear largely priced in. A football-packed summer is expected to provide a cyclical boost to beer consumption. With mid-single-digit earnings growth projected, we set a 12-month target price of VND 55,000/share (14% upside potential).

Investment Thesis

Margin expansion offsets modest top-line recovery. Management expects gross margin improvement driven by disciplined hedging: malt prices are secured through end-2026 and aluminum through mid-2026 at favorable levels, enhancing earnings visibility. We forecast:

•           2026F: Revenue of VND 27.0tn (+4.4% YoY), NPAT of VND 4.73tn (+3.6% YoY)

•           2027F: Revenue of VND 27.8tn (+3.0% YoY), NPAT of VND 4.81tn (+1.6% YoY)

We favor accumulating on weakness, supported by SAB’s stable dividend policy. SAB is trading at VND 48,400/share (~14x 2026F P/E), slightly below its two-year average of 15x. Our target price is derived from a blended DCF and target P/E multiple of 13x. Upside remains conditional on sustained material cost tailwinds, sector recovery, and product innovation to mitigate structural General Trade (GT) weakness and potential excise tax pressures.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating with a target price of VND 62,400/share, based on a blended P/E and P/B valuation framework versus sector averages of 11x and 2.4x.

Catalyst:

•           Construction industry trajectory and solid backlogs sustain revenue growth. We expect NTP’s demand to sustain growth through 2026–2027, driven primarily by the continued expansion of construction activity - including public investment projects, social and commercial housing—and reinforced by ongoing momentum across construction segments.

•           PVC storage supports margin growth in 1H25. PVC price bottomed in 2025 and is expected to increase in 2026, since China terminates the 13% export tax for resin, and the resin production reduces due to non-suffered manufacturers. However, NTP had actively stored the input ingredients, as inventory increased by +43%YoY, equivalent to 6-month production.

•           Healthy asset structure minimizes risk and opens for income growth: Company owns no long-term debt and a net cash-to-assets ratio of 28%. In an environment of expected interest rate hikes in 2026, we estimate that a 100bps increase in rates would translate into an additional VND 30 billion in financial income.

Investment view: GMD delivered a standout 4Q 2025 with earnings far exceeding expectations, reinforcing our constructive long term view. We revise our 2026 target price to VND 95,000/share using DCF valuation, implying ~19% upside, and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. At the current price, GMD trades at 16.4x 2026F P/E — still within its historical band and attractive considering stronger pricing visibility, continued volume expansion at Gemalink, and the capacity boost from NDV Phase 3.

Investment thesis

•           Dominant positioning in Vietnam’s most attractive port clusters: GMD owns flagship assets in Cai Mep–Thi Vai (Gemalink) and Hai Phong (Nam Dinh Vu), the two fastest growing port regions. With Gemalink being one of the very few ports with remaining capacity to support ~15%/year Cai Mep throughput expansion, GMD is structurally positioned to capture multi year volume and pricing upside.

•           Tariff tailwinds strengthen earnings visibility: Deep sea port floor prices were recently lifted 8–10%, and we expect ~10% YoY ASP increase at Gemalink, supported by tight regional capacity and GML’s superior location advantages. These industry-wide tariff adjustments provide a more favorable and predictable long term margin environment.

•           Long-growth runway from capacity expansion: Nam Dinh Vu Phase 3 has just commenced operations, lifting NDV’s total capacity to 2 mn TEU/year, while Gemalink Phase 2A (800K TEU) is planned to break ground in 1H2026 and complete in 2H2027. With no competing capacity additions expected in the Caimep region until after 2030, GMD benefits from a supply constrained environment for at least the next five years.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on VNM due to limited upside (8% including dividend) given single-digit earnings growth prospects for the 2026-2027 period, as marketing expenses could potentially offset gains from low input costs in the near-term. We raise our 12-month TP to VND 72,000/share (from VND 65,000/share).

Investment Thesis

•           Better product mix and distribution: Premium/super-premium segments now represent ~10% of sales with continued growth trajectory. Domestic recovery, strong export momentum and accelerated modern trade expansion underpin more market share gains.

•           Low input costs period ahead: Imported milk ingredient costs are expected to be favorable during 2026, helping VNM free up capital for future marketing budgets.

•           Valuation not too attractive relative to growth profile: Our 2026F revenue and NPAT arrive at VND 65.5tn (+3% YoY) and VND 10tn (+6.3% YoY), respectively, which is 4% above consensus. At VND 70,600/share, the stock trades at ~17x 2026F P/E; our TP of VND 72,000 is supported by a combination of DCF and 16x PER. Dividend yield is stable at 6%.

We reaffirm our BUY rating on VCB shares with 12-month TP of VND84,900 based on a 2026E P/B of 2.7x (–1SD vs. past-5-year average). After two years of subdued growth, we expect 2026 to mark a clear earnings re-acceleration (+15.6% YoY), supported by credit normalization and gradual margin recovery.

Investment thesis

•           Earnings trough likely behind us. The 2024–25 period was characterized by NIM compression and weaker fee income. We expect normalization in 2026, with credit growth at 14% and NIM improving modestly to 2.69% (+6bps YoY).

•           Best-in-class asset quality. NPL ratio at 0.58% and LLR at 259% remain strongest in the system, limiting provisioning downside. Retail NPLs improved to 0.7%, indicating recovery in borrower quality.

•           Franchise strength remains intact. VCB retains structural advantages in FDI banking, trade finance and FX settlement. Corporate deposits remain resilient (+14% YoY in 2025) which serves as a solid liquidity anchor.

•           Fee income remains upside optionality. We model 13% YoY growth in 2026, though execution remains gradual. Scale and customer depth leave room for medium-term improvement.

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on NLG with a 12-month target price of VND 35,200/share, implying 21% upside from the current price. The stock is trading at FY2026 forward P/B of 1.1x, significantly below its five-year historical average of 1.6x, offering an attractive valuation entry point.

NLG remains well positioned to navigate sector headwinds, supported by:

•           Substantial de-risked land bank: Key projects have largely fulfilled financial obligations, providing flexibility for development and launches.

•           Clear product positioning: Well-structured segmentation targeting genuine end-user demand.

•           Earnings visibility: Unrecognized revenue of VND 10.9tn as of end-4Q25 underpins near-term earnings resilience and mitigates industry pressures.

We forecast FY2026 NPAT-MI of VND 668bn (-5% YoY), primarily driven by handovers at Southgate, Central Lake, and Izumi City. Excluding one-off income and expenses related to Izumi City, core profit is expected to grow 12% YoY, reflecting improving underlying operations.

We upgrade our rating for HDG from MARKET PERFORM to OUTPERFORM, while lowering 1-year target price to VND 31,300/share (from previously VND 33,000/share) (representing 17% upside potential). The lower target price reflects our sales projection delay of Hado Charm Villas, Hado Minh Long and Hado Green Lane projects, given current difficulties of the real estate sector as well as the most up-to-date implementation progress of those projects. Meanwhile, HDG’s share price declined 25% from October 2025 peak, implying limited downside risk further.

Investment thesis

•           Further sales of Hado Charm Villas project in 2026 will support growth from 2025 low base.

•           HDG successfully converted EUR-denominated debt of 7A wind power plant into VND, thereby reducing both 2026 and long-term exposure to FX volatility.

•           La Trong plant will contribute to long-term growth of the hydropower portfolio (targeted to commence operation in 1Q26), despite near-term concerns over a potential El Niño return.

We raise our target price to VND 19,200 (implying a 25.5% upside) and upgrade HT1 to BUY, reflecting stronger earnings normalization and improved 2026 visibility. We forecast FY2026 net income of VND 338.7 bn (+23.7% YoY), driven by continued volume growth, margin expansion, and easing input costs. At 5.85x 2026E EV/EBITDA, HT1 trades at a discount to its historical mid-cycle range, which we view as undemanding given recovering fundamentals and strengthening Southern infrastructure momentum.

Investment thesis

•           Earnings recovery has gained traction since 2H25, supported by volume-led growth and stabilizing input costs.

•           Southern infrastructure pipeline (Long Thanh Airport phase 2, expressways, elevated roadworks) underpins sustained cement demand into 2026.

•           Industry exports have accelerated since late 2025, helping rebalance domestic oversupply and improve pricing discipline.

•           Margin upside remains achievable through further normalization of trade discounts and ASP stabilization.

We raise our 12-month target price to VND 145,000 (implying 28% upside) and upgrade our earnings outlook, reflecting higher 2026E net income of VND 3.6tn (+26% YoY). We reiterate a BUY recommendation. At 11.6x 2026E P/E, PNJ trades at a meaningful discount to its historical average of 18x, which we view as unjustified given improving operational visibility.

Investment thesis

• Retail momentum has re-accelerated since 4Q25, marking a clear recovery from the softer performance in 9M25.
• Gold material constraints are expected to ease from 2026, supported by PNJ’s newly implemented repurchase policy.
• Market leadership strengthened by regulatory tailwinds, as PNJ stands to benefit from gold market liberalization under Decree 232/2025/ND-CP.

We raise our SOTP-based 12-month target price to VND 115,000 (from VND 97,700), implying 29% upside, driven by a higher 2026F net income forecast of VND 9.35tn (+32% YoY). We reiterate our BUY recommendation. At 14.2x 2026E P/E, MWG continues to trade at an attractive discount to its five-year historical average of 17x, despite improving earnings visibility and margin structure.

Investment Case

•           Bach Hoa Xanh (BHX): structural profitability inflection. The shift from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses improves formal grocery competitiveness. Management plans to accelerate network expansion (~1,000 new stores in 2026E) to secure long-term scale benefits.

•           ICT & CE: earnings recovery underway. Replacement and upgrade demand, together with tax relief measures, should support profit normalization following aggressive cost rationalization.

•           Value unlocking optionality. Planned IPOs of Dien May Xanh (expected 1H26) and Bach Hoa Xanh (targeted for 2028) represent potential medium- to long-term re-rating catalysts.

Investment view: We maintain our constructive view for HPG in 2026 as a long-term investment, keeping it as our favorite pick for the Steel sector this year. 2026-end target price is maintained at VND 35,000/share and the stock rating remains at BUY, with potential upside of 27% from the current price. At the current market price, HPG is trading at 2026F P/E of 10.4x, which is relatively attractive for a company starting a new growth cycle.

Investment thesis

•           2026 is the first full year of operation of Dung Quat 2 steel mill, lifting HRC steel capacity to 9 millions tonnes as well as full year applying anti-dumping duty on China HRC. Thus, substantial growth of both top and bottom line (+33% YoY and 35% YoY respectively) is expected.

•           Additional investigation of anti-dumping duty on wide-width HRC should provide further protection for HPG’s key products and ensure a long-term favorable industry landscape.

While IMP remains structurally well positioned in Vietnam’s pharmaceutical sector, the recent share price rally (+12% since our OP call) has largely priced in acquisition optimism, leaving risk-reward neutral amid near-term earnings pressure. We downgrade IMP to Market Perform while raise our 12-month target price to VND 56,000/share (from VND 55,000), implying limited upside of 3%.

Investment Thesis

•           Structurally strong, tactically constrained. IMP remains a best-in-class mid-cap pharma; however, near-term growth is constrained by soft OTC demand and elevated SG&A costs.

•           Valuation not attractive. At 23x 2026F P/E, IMP trades ~1 standard deviation above its 5-year average (17x) and above regional peers (20x), limiting re-rating potential without a clearer earnings inflection.

Following a 10% increase in CTR’s share price since our previous update, we downgrade our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM, while maintaining our unchanged 12-month target price of VND 102,000 per share. Upside from current levels is limited at approximately 3%. Post-2025 results, we leave our 2026 earnings forecast largely unchanged.

Investment Thesis

•           Sustainable revenue growth outlook. We expect CTR to deliver approximately 11% YoY revenue growth in 2026, supported by (i) continued expansion of base transceiver stations (BTS), (ii) increasing contribution from solar energy solutions, and (iii) sustained momentum in the construction segment.

•           “Go Global” strategy as a long-term catalyst. While near-term financial contributions may be modest, overseas expansion remains a key strategic pillar and a potential upside driver over the medium to long term.

We maintain a constructive long-term view on GVR, supported by its unrivaled rubber land bank of 394,782 hectares across key southern provinces, including Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria–Vung Tau, and Tay Ninh. The planned conversion of more than 23,000 hectares of rubber plantations into industrial park (IP) land represents a transformational growth catalyst with meaningful long-term value creation potential.

However, following a 49.2% rally in GVR’s share price since our previous report, upside is now more limited. Using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, we derive a 12-month target price of VND 35,700 per share, implying a 15% downside from the current level. Accordingly, we revise our rating from OUTPERFORM to MARKET PERFORM.

We rate OUTPERFORM with a 12-month TP of VND23,000/share, implying 22% upside. Our positive view is driven by resilient EU demand, margin recovery from product mix and automation, and valuation that remains below historical averages despite earnings momentum.

Investment thesis

•           EU growth a haven from tariff: European demand and expansion into new markets position TNG to outgrow other OEMs, while reducing US tariff exposure.

•           Margin improvement: Shift toward higher-margin products, automation, and productivity gains are lifting gross margin and lowering SG&A, supporting faster earnings growth than revenue.

•           Undemanding valuation: TNG trades at 6x 2026F P/E vs. its 5-year average of 8x, offering rerating upside as margins normalize and premium orders scale.