Company Report

Structural low-cost producer with resilient margins: Pig farming contributes approximately 46% of revenue and 62% of 9M25 gross profit. HPA operates at the lower end of the industry cost curve, which limits downside risk even under normalized hog price conditions and supports margin resilience across cycles.

Defensible economics driven by premium genetics and a bundled model: HPA’s integrated sow–feed bundling model functions as a quasi-franchise, enhancing customer stickiness and supporting premium pricing over the long term. We see this as a key differentiator relative to smaller or less integrated peers.

Compelling valuation despite superior fundamentals: HPA trades at a 2025F P/E of 7.6x, a substantial discount to the sector average of ~15x. While the company commands a higher-than-average P/B of 3.7x, this is justified by structurally higher margins, stronger ROE, and a conservative balance sheet with D/E of 0.3x.

Leading Position: Vinhomes remains Vietnam’s premier real estate developer, supported by an extensive land bank and a proven track record in executing large-scale projects.

Presales Growth: We expect VHM to maintain robust presales momentum, reaching VND 182 trillion in 2025 (+75% YoY) and VND 192 trillion in 2026 (+6% YoY), driven by ongoing developments and major launches scheduled for 2026.

Earnings Outlook: Net profit after tax and minority interest (NPAT-MI) is projected at VND 37 trillion (+17% YoY) in 2025 and VND 40 trillion (+8% YoY) in 2026, underpinned by strong unbilled bookings.

Earnings uplift supported by internal capital generation: CTG remains the only listed SOCB without a private placement plan. Strong earnings growth should provide sufficient capital buffer to sustain CAR while supporting robust credit expansion.

Credit cost relief from improving asset quality: Gradual improvements in asset quality allow CTG to reduce provisions in the coming years. We expect pretax profit to reach VND 40 trillion (+26% YoY) in 2025 and VND 49.4 trillion (+23.5% YoY) in 2026.

Attractive relative valuation: For 2026, CTG trades at 1.32x P/B with ROE above 20%, offering compelling value compared with BID (1.38x P/B) and VCB (1.86x P/B), which generate ROE of 15.5%–16.5%.

Growing potential: The rebound of real estate, construction and retail market would promote 4Q25 revenue reaching about VND2,000bn (+6%YoY) resulting in 2025E total revenue of VND7tn (+20%YoY), and PBT by VND1.28tn (+44%YoY).

Low input cost utilization: Low PVC resin price (-22% YoY) and input storage stimulation (+44% YoY) pave the way for discounted-led policy for 2025 but still maintain gross profit margin and stabilize APS if input cost recovers in 2026.

Sustainable asset structure: (i) no long-term debt for three years and a net cash-to-assets ratio of 13%, (ii) largely depreciated in-use manufacturer and (iii) 2026E similar 25% cash and 20% stock dividends.

Gross margin expansion for 2026: While we highlighted this trend in our previous report, SAB’s parent company (ThaiBev’s) analyst meeting last week provided more details on ingredient price trends at the group level. ThaiBev’s management indicated malt prices (estimated 23-25% of COGS) are expected to decline by an additional double-digit percentage next year, following the steep decline this year. Rice-based ingredients have also fallen over 20% YTD. Aluminum costs are likewise expected to ease. These are mostly in-line with our expectations that SAB should benefit accordingly, as SAB procures some of its ingredients at the group level.

However, we expect only a modest industry recovery in 2026 while SAB still faces fierce competition and difficulty in the General Trade channel (new tax policy applied from 2026). We maintain 2026F revenue growth at 2% YoY (in line with consensus) but increase 2026F NPAT growth from VND 4.64tn (+2 YoY) to 4.74tn (+4% YoY, higher than consensus), supported by lower input costs. At the current price of VND51,900, SAB trades at 15x 2026F P/E and offers an 8% dividend yield.

Short-term outlook: For 4Q25, we estimate revenue to decline 11% YoY (due to Sabibeco consolidation effect) but with an 11% increase in NPAT (due to low comparison base from 4Q24). We expect 1Q26 earnings growth to follow driven by absence of one-off expense in 1Q25 from the Sabibeco consolidation.

Restructuring Completion as a catalyst: We expect STB will receive final regulatory approval in 2H26, marking the formal completion of its restructuring phase and serving as a key strategic catalyst, including engagement with strategic investors, resumption of dividend distributions, and initiation of charter capital increases.

Management’s strong commitment to addressing non-performing loans is expected to extend into 2026, exerting pressure on provisioning expenses and moderating the bank’s earnings growth trajectory.

Earnings outlook remains modest: Pretax profit is expected to reach VND 14 tn (+9% YoY), supported by stronger credit growth (+14% YTD), but weighed down by NIM compression (-7bps YoY) and a sharp increase in provisions (+47.6% YoY). ROE is projected to decline to approximately 17%, while CAR is anticipated to fluctuate in the range of 9% to 9.5%.

High-growth franchise with multi-engine expansion. VPB delivered 29% credit growth YTD by the end of 3Q25, driven by aggressive lending to real estate and brokerage. We project credit growth to remain elevated in 2026 with strong momentum across the parent bank and subsidiaries.

Earnings upgrade backed by diversified income and improving asset quality. We revise 2025 PBT to VND 29.7 tn (+49% YoY) and 2026 PBT to VND 36.3 tn (+22% YoY), driven by lower credit cost (3% vs. 3.4% in 2025) and sustained fee income.

Strategic capital flexibility. As CAR declined to 13.6% (from 17% in 2023) amid rapid balance sheet expansion, we anticipate VPB will pursue capital raising options in 2026, potentially via follow-on issuance to strategic partners — a potential re-rating catalyst.

We downgrade VEA to Market Perform and reduce our 12 month target price to VND34,000/share (from VND43,300/share, adjusted for dividend). The revision reflects mounting regulatory headwinds and accelerating electrification, which are expected to weigh on Honda’s motorcycle volumes and margins despite resilient 2025 earnings. Our target price implies a P/E of 7.3x, one standard deviation below the five year average, underscoring reduced earnings visibility for 2026–27.

Investment Thesis

•           Solid near term earnings base: 9M25 NPAT rose 6% YoY, reaching 82% of our 2025 forecast. However, structural challenges—most notably the gasoline motorbike ban—warrant a more cautious medium term outlook.

•           Volume pressure: Honda’s guidance for a 200k unit cut, coupled with rapid expansion of e scooter brands (VinFast, Yadea), poses downside risk to VEAM’s historically stable associate income stream.

•           Dividend yield vs. earnings decline: While dividend yields could remain attractive (c.15% in 2026–27 if payouts are sustained), earnings are projected to contract by 14% in 2026, limiting upside potential.

We upgrade MBB to BUY (from OUTPERFORM) with a revised 12-month TP of VND 30,000, as we stay constructive on its long-term outlook supported by a robust deposit base, digital leadership, and payment edge, despite near-term asset quality headwinds from a handful of restructured exposures.

Investment thesis

•           Leading private-sector franchise with outsized growth potential. As Vietnam’s largest private bank by asset base, MBB is uniquely positioned to accelerate market share gains, particularly under the mandatory acquisition of MBV. We project credit growth of 30% in 2025 and 25% in 2026 — significantly outpacing sector averages.

•           Compelling growth-return dynamics. We forecast PBT to reach VND 32.1 tn in 2025 (+11.5% YoY) and VND 38.7 tn in 2026 (+20% YoY), supported by robust credit growth, improving fee income and writebacks. ROE is projected at 22% in 2026 — among the highest in the sector.

•           Structural advantages in a transitioning sector. MBB’s strong CASA base, leadership in digital banking and payments, and robust franchise across retail, SME & large corporate segments position the bank well to capture medium-term growth opportunities.

19% upside driven by robust presales momentum and Southern market recovery

•           Reiterate OUTPERFORM rating with 1Y target price VND 42,500/share (+19% upside).

•           NLG is currently trading at FY26 forward of 1.6x, close to its 5-year average of 1.6x.

Investment thesis

•           NLG is well-positioned to benefit from its land banks of 681 hectares and the recovery of the southern real estate market.

•           We expect NLG to sustain its presales growth momentum, reaching VND 7.8tn in 2025 (+51% YoY) and VND 8.5tn in 2026 (+9% YoY), supported by active launches and Southern market recovery.

•           NPAT-MI is expected to reach VND 705bn (+36% YoY) and VND 726bn (+3% YoY, but +36%YoY if excluding Izumi’s divestment gain in 2025) backed by robust presales in 2025 and 2026.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on POW with a 12-month target price of VND 14,500/share (implying a -5% downside). While Nhon Trach 3 officially came online in November, our view on the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 project remains cautious. Their weak first-year performance could significantly weigh on 2026 earnings, with NPATMI projected to plunge 79% YoY.

Investment thesis

•           Stable gas supply: Existing gas-fired plants should operate steadily through 2026, supported by a stable natural gas outlook.

•           Strategic importance: Despite near-term challenges, Nhon Trach 3 & 4 remains critical for Vietnam’s energy security by 2030 amid renewable expansion and difficulties in other LNG projects.

•           Coal supply advantage: Efforts to secure new coal sources could improve Vung Ang’s heat rate and input costs.

We revise up our SOTP-based 12 month TP to VND97,700 (22% upside potential), from VND87,000, on our higher 2026E net income (VND7.9tn, +19% YoY) and reiterate our BUY call. The 2026E P/E of 14.8x remains compelling vs. the past-5 year average of 17x.

Investment thesis

•           Grocery chain benefiting from the shift from lump-sum to revenue-based taxation for household businesses. Aggressive expansion (1,000 new grocery stores in 2026E) of the grocery store network to secure long-term growth.

•           Mobile phone replacement/upgrade demand on top of tax relief likely to boost earnings in the ICT & CE segment.

•           Planned IPOs of Dienmayxanh and Bachhoaxanh (expected in 2026 and 2028) likely to unlock long-term value

Reiterate MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG, with revised target price of VND 18,500/share ~ 10% upside based on a combined P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.

At the current market price, HSG is trading at FY 2026 P/E forward of 13x and P/B forward of 0.88x, which is lower than its normalized 5Y average P/E of 16x.

However, with challenging industry landscape and limited 2026F earnings growth prospects, we only recommend to buy on dip.

Investment thesis

•           HSG is the leading galvanized steel sheet and steel pipe producer in Vietnam with 22% market share.

•           Domestic galvanized steel market is positively supported in the long-term by AD on China and South Korea import as well as in the medium-term by government expansionary policy.

•           The company is expanding into construction material retail with its Hoa Sen Home chain (at 148 stores at end 2025 and 300 stores target in 2030)

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and raise our target price to VND178,000/share (13% upside potential), to reflect improving 2025E PVC costs and sustained sales volume growth. Our TP is based on an unchanged target PER of 11x now applied to our 2026E EPS (from average 2025-26E).

Investment thesis

•           Robust fundamentals: we project 2026E NPATMI to grow 9% YoY, underpinned by 11% YoY sales volume growth and stable ASP (-0.5% YoY).

•           Cost and operational advantage: PVC prices remain structurally soft due to weak Chinese manufacturing demand, with only a modest rebound expected (+1.5% YoY).

•           Attractive shareholder returns: consistent cash dividend yield averaging c.10% pa.

Industry-wise, structural consolidation has removed nearly 1.9mn tons/year of inefficient capacity in the North, while 3Q25 consumption surged 23.1% YoY on export front-loading. Imports fell 4.3% YoY, tightening supply-demand balance and supporting ASP recovery into late-2025.

Looking ahead, DHC’s disciplined procurement, lean cost base, and upcoming Giao Long 3 expansion – introducing Kraftliner and higher-value grades – position it well for structural earnings growth.

At VND 34,050 per share, DHC trades at 10.7x trailing P/E and 1.51x P/B, with a target price of VND 38,300 per share (12.6% upside). We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on respectable fundamentals and resilient profitability.