Company Report

SSI recently hosted a Property–Infrastructure Tour featuring leading companies across residential real estate, construction, and building materials, including VHM, KDH, NLG, NVL, PDR, CII, CRE, HBC, DPG, KSB, and ACG. Management teams expressed a broadly optimistic outlook, driven by the government’s public investment initiatives and ongoing efforts to resolve challenges in the real estate sector.

In 2025, both electricity output and net profit after tax (NPAT) are projected to recover gradually, with YoY growth of approximately 9% and 5%, respectively. This improvement is expected to be supported by contributions from all power plants across the portfolio. Additionally, PGV is anticipated to continue optimizing the thermal power segment by reducing heating rates, thereby enhancing long-term operational efficiency.

It is important to note that the NPAT target does not account for potential FX compensation income exceeding VND 5 trillion, related to the remaining amount from 2019 and the period from 2020 to 2024. This amount represents roughly 35% of the company’s consolidated book equity or approximately 25% of its current market capitalization. In the short term, recognition of this income may be delayed due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding EVN’s financial position.

Furthermore, the company reported that electricity output for the first five months of 2025 reached 10.8 billion kWh, marking a modest 0.5% YoY increase. Preliminary profit before tax (PBT) for the same period was VND 470 billion, achieving over 75% of the corresponding full-year guidance.

MSN’s 2025 earnings growth is expected to be fueled by continuous improvement in its core consumer-retail business, buttressed by its meat business given elevated pork prices and reduced losses in the non-core mining business. Notably, Winmart's grocery chain reached its breakeven point during 2024, demonstrating the efficiency of its business model. This milestone establishes a strong foundation to accelerate expansion of its store network, as the market continues to shift from traditional wet markets to modern trade grocery stores. Given the 1Q25 earnings, we believe that MSN will exceed base case earnings guidance for 2025. We forecast 2025 NPAT and NPAT-MI of MSN at VND 5.4 tn (+26% YoY, from VND 5.3 tn) and VND 2.7 tn (+36% YoY, from VND 2.8 tn).

MSN has implemented a corporate restructuring, resulting in an adjustment of ownership stakes in key subsidiaries. This strategic change simplifies its ownership structure and provides liquidity for exit by external investors in MSN’s unlisted subsidiaries (The CrownX and Masan Consumer Holdings). Following the change in corporate structure, MSN’s indirect ownership of MCH decreased from 67.4% to 66%, while its stake in WCM increased from 78.7% to 85.4% (via increased ownership in The CrownX). With a decrease in ownership by external shareholders at The CrownX, financial obligations associated with the CrownX put option are expected to ease. This reduction should help alleviate pressure on MSN's cash flow, providing greater financial flexibility.

Given MSN’s encouraging earnings growth outlook coupled with the reduced pressure on cash flow, we rate the shares as OUTPEFROM, but with a lower 1Y target price of VND 81,600/share (from VND 86,500/share).

We reaffirm our Outperform rating on TCB shares and raise our 12-month target price to VND 36,400 (from VND 31,400), representing an 15% upside. This upward revision reflects our view that the anticipated IPO of TCBS could act as a significant revaluation catalyst for TCB’s investment portfolio.

We view this valuation adjustment as strategically important, given TCBS’s growing contribution to group earnings—accounting for approximately 8.5% to 17% of consolidated profit. TCBS continues to strengthen its position in the competitive securities market through its non-brokerage model, wealth management technology, and advanced digital platform.

Additionally, we anticipate a recovery in the real estate sector beginning in 2025, supported by easing regulatory constraints and a low-interest-rate environment. This should unlock pent-up supply and stimulate demand, providing a tailwind for TCB’s core earnings growth.

Finally, we believe that a clearly communicated IPO roadmap for TCBS could serve as a near-term catalyst, further enhancing investor sentiment and driving share price appreciation.

We expect the bank’s pretax profit to attain VND 31.5 tn (+14.5% YoY) in 2025 and VND 37.6 tn (+19.2% YoY) in 2026.

We downgrade our rating on GAS shares to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), despite raising our 12-month target price to VND 71,900 (from VND 65,300), implying an 10% potential upside. The revision reflects over 10% gain in share price since our last update. Our higher target price is driven by upward revisions to our 2025 earnings forecasts, primarily due to increased LPG volume assumptions and anticipated reversal of bad debt provisions.

1Q25 performance: GAS’s first-quarter 2025 results slightly exceeded our expectations, primarily due to marginally higher-than-anticipated LPG volumes. Despite the quarterly earnings growth, we estimate that dry gas volume declined by over 10% YoY, largely driven by reduced demand from electricity sector clients.

2025 management guidance: Management has issued conservative guidance for 2025, targeting total revenue of VND 74 trillion (-30% YoY) and net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 5.3 trillion (-50% YoY). However, preliminary results for the first five months of 2025 posted 9%–11% YoY growth in both revenue and profit. Notably, GAS has consistently outperformed its annual guidance over the past eight years.

Short-term strategy: To mitigate the impact of declining dry gas revenues, GAS is expanding its international presence, with a particular focus on the LNG and LPG segments.

Long-term strategy: The company remains committed to the exploration of new gas fields and continued investment in gas infrastructure as key drivers of long-term growth. In parallel, GAS is advancing green energy initiatives to support Vietnam’s transition toward a cleaner energy mix.

DPM’s 1Q25 was marked by a challenging operating environment, with PBT declining 22% YoY. This was largely driven by an unfavorable exchange rate and uneven quarterly SG&A allocation. However, we believe this softness is temporary and that the company is on the cusp of a meaningful earnings recovery.

Looking ahead, we expect a reversion to earnings growth beginning in 2Q25, supported by two key catalysts: a correction in global oil prices and the implementation of a new VAT regulation effective July 2025. The latter allows DPM to reclaim VAT on gas input costs—a structural shift that could significantly enhance profitability.

DPM’s robust balance sheet, with net cash accounting for 55% of its current market capitalization, provides a strong buffer against downside risks. This financial strength, combined with improving fundamentals, underpins our constructive view.

We forecast 2025E PBT at VND1.2tn (+83% YoY). Our new equally-weighted PE/PB/ EV/EBITDA-based 12-month TP is VND38,300 per share, implying a ROI of 21%, including a 6.4% dividend yield. We call for OUTPERFORM rating on DPM shares.

We maintain our MARKET PERFORM rating on IDC, with one-year target price of VND 50,100, implying a 16.5% upside, based on a Net Present Value (NPV) valuation approach for industrial parks, including the valuation of Tan Phuoc 1 Industrial Park.

2025 outlook: MOU Decline Poses Headwinds

We anticipate that IDC will face several challenges in 2025 due to a contraction in Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs), driven by: (1) Weakened Leasing Demand: Leasing activity has slowed compared to previous periods, primarily due to heightened uncertainties impacting FDI inflows; (2) Limited Land Availability: Key projects such as Phu My II IP and Phu My II Expansion IP, which account for approximately 40% of IDC’s annual leased area, currently lack large contiguous lease land (>30 ha per tenant); (3) Pricing Sensitivity: Tenants remain cautious on lease pricing, which is only 15%–18% lower than comparable industrial parks in Indonesia, limiting IDC’s pricing flexibility.

As a result, we forecast a 25% YoY decline in net profit after tax (NPAT) for 2025, underperforming the company’s guidance of a 13% YoY decline.

Dividend Outlook Remains Positive. We expect IDC to maintain its dividend payout at 35% of par value, translating to a dividend yield of 8.1% for 2025.

Growth Drivers from 2026 Onward. IDC is one of the largest industrial park developers in Vietnam, with 1,355 ha of remaining land, of which 445 ha of available leased land in Long An, Ba Ria Vung Tau, Thai Binh, and Ninh Binh province. Low compensation and clearance costs should enable IDC to maintain IP segment gross profit margins above 42% through 2025 and declining to 35% as new industrial parks begin operations from 2026. We expect IDICO Quang Vinh IP (in Hai Phong province) and Tan Phuoc 1 IP (in Tien Giang province), Phu Long (in Ninh Binh province) to drive growth between 2026 -2027.

We change our rating from Market Perform to Outperform for NLG, with a target price of VND 42,500 per share (reflecting a 15% upside). NLG is well-positioned to benefit from its land banks of 681 hectares and the market recovery in the southern Vietnam real estate market.

We expect Southgate project to remain a key driver for NLG’s presales value this year with further phases anticipated in the 2H2025, supported by ongoing infrastructure development and improving market sentiment in Long An market. In April, Nam Long recorded strong presales at Southgate project, achieving VND 1,911 bn from 59 villas in launched sub-zones The Aqua and Park Village. We estimate the presales value of Southgate in 2025F be VND 4.2 tn, accounting for 53% of NLG’ presales value in 2025. Our presales forecasts in 2025 and 2026 post a strong growth to VND 7.9tn (+51%YoY) and VND 9.9tn (+26%YoY) from Southgate, Izumi City, Can Tho, Mizuki Park and Akari City.

2025 earnings are forecasted to be VND 667 bn (+28.8%YoY) (i) 15% Izumi’s stake sale and (ii) property sales from Southgate, Izumi City, Can Tho. For FY26, with our expectation of relaunching of Izumi City during 2025, NLG achieves earnings of VND 676.2 bn, increasing +1.4% YoY and +54%YoY for core-earnings. 

We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on NT2, maintaining our 12-month target price of VND 21,500/share, implying a 16% upside. Our net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company’s recovery trajectory following a low earnings base in 2024.

1Q25 performance: NT2’s 1Q25 results were in line with our expectations, reporting net profit of VND 37 billion, a significant turnaround from the VND 158 billion net loss in 1Q24. This improvement was primarily driven by a higher allocation of contracted volume (Qc).

Management guidance: NT2 projects a 26% YoY increase in power output and a 31% rise in core profit before tax (PBT) in 2025, excluding potential gains from foreign exchange (FX) loss compensation and forest environmental service fees (vs. our core PBT growth forecast of 199% YoY). We view this guidance as conservative, reflecting management’s caution amid uncertainties surrounding H2 2025 Qc allocations, gas price rise, payment delays from EVN, and ongoing gas supply constraints.

Strategic developments: NT2 is actively engaging with EVN/EPTC and PVN to incorporate provisions into the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) that would allow the use of LNG for power generation - an important step toward mitigating/resolve long-term gas supply risks.

Significant restructuring carried out, targeting low-growth General Trade (GT) channel. With domestic sales plateauing over the past five years, of which 70% came through the GT channel, management has taken some bold actions (as part of its 5-year restructuring plan). Changes in sales force and distribution, however, are likely to weigh on near-term results.

As a result, we lower our revenue and earnings for this year by 4% and 6%, respectively. We now expect VNM to report 2025E net revenue and NPAT of VND61tn (-1% YoY) and VND9.3tn (-2% YoY), respectively. We also introduce our 2026E net revenue and NPAT of VND62.3tn (+2% YoY) and VND9.2tn (-1.2% YoY), respectively, reflecting modest growth, margin pressure, and higher SG&A.

We reaffirm our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of VNM, despite lowering our 12-month TP to VND65,000/share (from VND71,500/share), based on DCF methodology. While acknowledging the headwinds ahead, we expect earnings for 2H25E and beyond to be stronger compared to last year thanks to the effect of rebranding/restructuring and consumption downtrading. The recent share price weakness has left the shares with 18% potential upside to our new TP. The stock is trading at 2025E P/E of 14x, 1SD below its past-3-year average (16x), while offering a dividend yield of 7%.

We are upgrading the shares of PVS to OUTPERFORM with 1Y target of VND 33,000/share, as we increase our earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 14% and 8%, respectively. This reflects the booking of several large projects. 

We believe that the EPC segment will enjoy YoY growth of 122% YoY due to continued booking of large projects booking (Block B upstream, Orsted’s windfarm, et al), and that margin improvement too will be supportive of go forward earnings. Interestingly, PVS’ backlog is a significant USD 2.5 bn and additional large contract awards totaling USD 400 mn are likely over the near-term, likely from a domestic oil&gas project.

Our rating upgrade also reflects PVS’ rather robust net cash (Cash – ST & LT debt) per share position of VND 29,850/share at 1Q 2025, which provides significant downside protection. Consolidated revenue did reach VND 6 tn during 1Q25, up +62% YoY. However, were it not for the forex gains/losses and asset revaluation (VND 130 bn), 1Q 2025 PBT would have declined 66% YoY.

VCB’s 1Q25 results were relatively soft but broadly in line with our expectations, with pre-tax profit reaching VND 10.9 tn (+1.3% YoY). Despite near-term moderation, the bank continues to exhibit prudent risk management and maintains strong fundamentals amid ongoing external uncertainties. Its cautious approach to tariff risks and proactive monitoring of asset quality underpin our medium-term outlook.

We maintain a positive view on VCB, although we are mindful of potential medium-term headwinds. These include softer income from trade finance, pressure on credit quality, and some NIM compression as the bank could continue to extend support to clients in this challenging macro environment. That said, we believe that these risks are more likely to materialize from 2026 onward, rather than having a significant impact during 2025. For 2025, we forecast a pre-tax profit of VND 44.7 tn (+5.9% YoY), supported by credit growth of 13% and a modest 4 bp NIM contraction to 2.82%.

VCB shares are currently trading at a trailing P/B of 2.56x—below both its historical average of 3.2x and its 1-standard deviation threshold of 2.82x. This valuation likely reflects the bank’s conservative lending stance over the past two years, which has resulted in some market share loss relative to leading private-sector banks. However, we believe the 2025 forward P/B of 2.09x is undemanding, particularly given VCB’s systemic importance and industry-leading asset quality. With a 12-month target price of VND 69,000/share, implying 21% upside, we reiterate our Outperform rating on the stock.

We remain sanguine on VPB’s outlook and maintain our 2025 estimates. The bank has managed its funding cost well while maintaining robust credit growth, underpinned by a well-capitalized balance sheet and a strategic partnership with SMBC.

However, while the parent bank's performance would be solid, we maintain a cautious view on FeCredit, where asset quality risks likely will persist should trade tensions escalate. Our 2025 consolidated PBT forecast stands at VND 23.8 tn (+19% YoY), slightly below management’s target, reflecting a conservative view on the consumer finance business.

With an additional 15% upside potential, we recommend Outperform on VPB, with the 2025 target price of VND 21,000/share.

We lower our rating on FPT to MARKET PERFORM (from OUTPERFORM), as we trim our SOTP-based 12-month TP to VND 122,500/share (from VND 129,600), representing only 1% upside. We also note that FPT’s share price has increased by over 10% since our previous update. Our new target price reflects our 3% lower 2025F NPATMI, which is attributed to our 19% lower revenue estimate for the APAC (excl. Japan) market.

During April 2025, revenue and NPAT enjoyed 12% and 14% YoY growth: This reflects the impact of US tariff policy on the technology field, as global businesses have become more cautious on IT spending. In particular, the segment saw a modest 5% YoY PBT growth, while the telecom segment emerged as a new growth driver, with 25% YoY PBT growth.

2025 outlook: We expect that the current global macro environment should take time to witness significant improvements. To be conservative, we forecast 2025 revenue and NPATMI to achieve VND 72.6 tn (+15% YoY) and VND 9.3 tn (+18% YoY), respectively.

Upside risk: A better global macro environment could boost IT spending and support the technology segment.

Weaker sales amidst subdued sentiment and intense competition. Excluding the impact consolidation from Sabibeco, revenue still witnessed a decrease of 10% YoY (partly due to an early Tet, leaving more sales during 4Q24). With the fragile consumer confidence, management expects some downtrading activities during 2H25.

Gross margin improved primarily due to consolidation of Sabibeco. Management expects further improvement through improved hedging and operational efficiencies. Excluding one-off acquisition expenses, NPAT declined 12.7% YoY (compared to a reported -22% YoY).

For 2025, we expect that the environment will remain a challenge, as consumer spend tightens. As a result, we lower our 2025F forecast for net revenue and NPAT to VND28.2tn (-11% YoY) and VND4.3tn (-5% YoY), respectively. See Exhibit 1 for our assumptions.

On the other hand, SAB remains an attractive consumer stock with a healthy balance sheet and generous dividend (c.10% yield for 2025F), aided by its market dominance in mainstream beer, Vietnam’s GDP growth, and a growing middle-class. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares of SAB along with our DCF/PER-based 12-month target price of VND58,000/share, which represents upside potential of 17%.