Company Report

GEX’s 1H25 PBT posted at VND 2.2tn, an increase of 24%YoY, of which second-quarter profit before tax (PBT) rising 9.3% YoY to VND 1,205 billion. However, net profit attributable to the parent shareholders declined by 6% YoY to VND 899 bn, mainly due to a significant decline in financial income to VND 436 bn in 1H25 from VND 1,251 billion in 1H24, following a one-off income of VND 996 billion recorded from divestments in renewable power plants in the second quarter of 2024.

The core business posted strong growth with gross profit soaring by 45.9% YoY to VND 3.9 tn driven by the electrical equipment thanks to an acceleration of investment in power infrastructure projects, and an increase in average selling price, especially in the cable product line... The industrial park segment also contributed to the consolidated earnings growth with the land lease increase by 24% to 70ha.

Business outlook

GEX’s 2025 profit before tax (PBT) is conservatively targeted at VND 3.6 tn, down 15.8% from 2024. However, the recent upward revision of GEE’s PBT guidance to VND 2.82 tn (+64.5% YoY) would translate into a corresponding increase in GEX’s PBT to around VND 4.5 tn is anticipated, representing a 24% YoY growth.

At the current price, GEX is trading at trailing PE and PB of 34.2x and 3.7x respectively, compared to a 5-year historical average of 17.4x and 1.52x respectively.

With recent price weakness, we upgrade our rating on CTR to OUTPERFORM (from MARKET PERFORM), with unchanged 12-month target price of VND 108,000/share, implying a 19.6% upside. Our net profit forecasts for 2025–2030 remain largely unchanged, supported by resilient fundamentals and emerging growth drivers.

1H25 results overview:

CTR posted 6% YoY revenue growth, while net profit after tax (NPAT) saw a double-digit increase, driven by a nearly threefold reduction in net financial losses. All business lines contributed positively, except for the operations segment. BTS construction progress slightly lagged behind projections. Notably, CTR is actively exploring renewable energy investment opportunities, which could enhance future earnings.

2025 outlook:

We forecast revenue and NPAT of VND 13.4 tn (+6% YoY) and VND 580 bn (+8% YoY).

Following 1H25 results, we made a minor downward revision to revenue, while NPAT projections remain nearly unchanged.

IMP reported robust revenue and NPAT growth of +22% and 37% YoY, respectively, driven by strong performance in both ETC (+24% YoY) and OTC (+32% YoY) segments. Hospital restocking supported ETC, while retail recovery boosted OTC. Faciility utilization is estimated at 63% compared to 55% at beginning of the year. Gross margin rose 60bps QoQ to 40.1% thanks to stable API prices and better cost control. 1H25 revenue and pretax profit achieved 46% and 43% of FY targets, respectively, keeping the company on track.

IMP’s outlook remains steady, with growth supported by an expanding SKU portfolio, a strong push in OTC, and rising market share in Tier 1&2 hospital tenders. Upcoming regulations (e.g., mandatory e-prescriptions, stricter drug quality controls) will benefit high-quality players like IMP.

As a result, we maintain our forecasts with 2025F net sales of VND 2.54 tn (+15% YoY) but increase our NPAT forecast to VND 401 bn (+25% YoY; from VND 373bn). We also introduce our 2026 forecast for revenue and NPAT of VND 2.89 tn (+13% YoY) and VND 486 bn (+21% YoY), respectively.

Our updated target price is VND 58,000/share (from 45,000/share), valuing IMP at a 2026F PE of 18.3x, derived from a blended DCF and relative P/E approach. With the stock currently trading at VND 50,500/share, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the shares with potential upside of 15%.

Earnings Recap: DHC (Dong Hai Ben Tre) reported YoY growth in 2Q25 NPATMI, recovering from the low base of 2024. Net revenue reached VND 880 billion, down 13.4% YoY but up 3.5% YoY when excluding the VND 165 billion one-off sale in 2Q24. The recovery was driven by improved manufacturing activity, with limited disruption from the US tariff news and policy delays that briefly impacted Vietnam’s export production.

Cost Discipline and Margin Surge: Despite an 8.8% YoY increase in OCC input prices, DHC successfully maintained lean inventory levels in 1H25 and exercised tighter control over procurement through active paper trading management. These efforts helped lift gross profit margin to a two-year high of 15.2% in 2Q25—an impressive 4.4 percentage point increase YoY. We expect further margin upside in 3Q25, supported by low-cost inventory, a more stable export outlook, and improving average selling prices (ASP). Notably, a mandated closure of outdated paper mills in Northern Vietnam-representing roughly 20% of national capacity—may tighten supply and support ASPs in the near term.

Outlook and Forecasts: For 2025, we forecast net revenue of VND 3.6 trillion (-0.4% YoY) and net income of VND 276 billion (+13.9% YoY). In 2026, we project VND 3.7 trillion in revenue (+3.3% YoY) and VND 299 billion in net income (+8.2% YoY). Containerboard consumption (testliner and medium) is expected to reach 307 and 311 thousand tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Valuation and Investment View: DHC is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 10.7x—above its 5-year historical average of 10.3x—but looks more attractive on forward P/E multiples of 9.5x (2025) and 8.1x (2026). The stock’s P/B of 1.35x is also meaningfully below the 5-year average of 2.29x. Though a mid-sized player with just ~3% market share in Vietnam’s corrugated paper market, DHC is positioned for long-term margin and capacity expansion.

2025 AGM highlights

CMG has set an ambitious target of reaching USD 1 billion in annual revenue by 2028, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20–30% over 2025–2028—significantly higher than the 12% CAGR achieved during 2020–2024. This aggressive growth plan is underpinned by a strategic investment phase, particularly in 2023–2024, which has temporarily constrained earnings growth. In 2024, net profit after tax (NPAT) rose by only 6% YoY, reflecting pressure from elevated fixed costs. Management has indicated that this trend may persist in the medium term as the company prioritizes long-term scalability and market positioning.

2024 performance review

CMG reported 12% YoY revenue growth and 6% YoY net profit (NPAT) growth in 2024. The Technology & Solutions and Digital Infrastructure segments were the primary contributors to topline expansion. However, the Research & Education segment continued to operate at a loss and is expected to take additional time to reach breakeven.

2025 guidance

For 2025, CMG targets VND 9.8 trillion in revenue (+20% YoY) and VND 464 billion in NPAT (+9% YoY). These projections reflect ongoing investment pressures that may continue to weigh on profitability. To support its long-term growth ambitions, CMG has opted to suspend cash dividends for 2024. Notably, the company has recently received investment approval for a hyperscale data center project, reinforcing its commitment to infrastructure expansion.

HT1 is well positioned to benefit from shifting demand to the South, its core market. The company maintains a strong brand presence with high product consistency. With demand increasingly concentrated in Southern projects, HT1’s scale and location give it a competitive edge. For 2H25, we expect stable pricing, improved input cost management, and volume growth to support continued earnings recovery. We revised FY25 forecasts to VND 7,987 bn in revenue (+8.5% YoY) and VND 258 bn in NPAT (+296% YoY), and FY26 to VND 8,691 bn in revenue and VND 316 bn in NPAT (+22.1% YoY).

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on HT1 and raise our target price to VND 15,700/share, based on a 6.0x EV/EBITDA target multiple, implying a 12.1% upside from current levels. HT1 is well-positioned to benefit from accelerating infrastructure disbursement and the recovery of the property market in southern Vietnam. The company boasts a long-standing brand reputation in the region and consistent product quality. Although competition in the domestic market remains intense due to a supply surplus-particularly in Northern and Central Vietnam-the pressure in the southern market is more subdued, thanks to lower capacity and rising demand.

Strong 2Q25 performance enabled 1H25 cumulative earnings to exceed both the company’s full-year guidance and our previous forecast.

With national electricity demand projected to accelerate in 2H25, NT2 is well-positioned to benefit from increased mobilization by EVN.

Long-term concerns persist regarding domestic natural gas shortages. Approval of LNG usage remains a critical factor for NT2 to recover its high generation capacity.

We revise our rating on NT2 from BUY to OUTPERFORM, following a ~9% share price rise since our last update. Our 12-month target price remains unchanged, at VND 25,000/share. While we have raised our NPAT estimates for 2025-2026, we maintain a cautious stance due to ongoing risks related to domestic natural gas supply.

1Q25 Earnings Update: HAH's 1Q25 earnings showed strong YoY growth, while QoQ earnings and profit margins declined due to seasonal effects. Meanwhile, HAH expanded its fleet by acquiring a 1,700-TEU vessel and ordering two 3,000-TEU ships for future delivery.

Industry Updates: Although the recent 90-day tariff truce between China and the US has resulted in an 46% MoM increase in the WCI, future trends of freight will likely depend on the outcomes of trade negotiations. Time charter for 1700-TEU size vessel remains firm at high level thanks to undersupply condition for this specific size.

Downgrade to MARKET PERFORM (from BUY): Our DCF model projects a one-year target price of VND 64,300 per share, considering the recent conversion of the convertible bond. This suggests an 3% downside, thus we downgrade to MARKET PERFORM rating for the stock. The stock remains our favorite play for container shipping on listed market.

3-6 month outlook: We expect charter rate and spot rate to remain at high level toward the year end due to current disruptions (Suez attack, Middle East destability, Trump tariff uncertainty…), so earnings outlook for 2H 2025F remains positive but with lesser YoY growth due to higher base in 2H2024.

Recent positive developments surrounding NVL’s project status may act as a re-rating catalyst for MBB, potentially resolving the lingering overhang risk. In the first five months of 2025, MBB reported robust parent-level profit before tax (PBT) of VND 11.9 trillion, marking a 16% year-over-year increase. This performance was underpinned by solid year-to-date credit and deposit growth of 6% and 7%, respectively—closely aligned with our full-year consolidated forecast of VND 33.4 trillion (+16% YoY).

Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate continued strong growth of 18% YoY, driven by a strong credit expansion (+28% YoY), a slightly lower net interest margin (NIM) of 3.82%, and a reduced credit cost of 0.95%. As a result, return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain at 22%, positioning MBB as the second-highest among banks under our coverage.

Reflecting these positive dynamics, we revise our target price-to-book (P/B) multiple for MBB to 1.3x (up from 1.25x) and roll forward our valuation base to mid-2026. This adjustment yields a new 12-month target price of VND 30,700 per share, up from VND 26,800. Since our Buy recommendation in April, the stock has appreciated by 23.8%. With a remaining upside potential of 18.5%, our rating on MBB is Outperform.

We upgrade our rating for NT2 from OUTPERFORM to BUY, with a revised 12-month target price of VND 25,000/share (from VND 21,500/share) (representing 33% upside). The upgrade is driven by our higher NPAT forecasts, now up 18% for 2025 and 65% for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected profit margins.

Despite softer top-line performance, earnings are poised to outperform, backed by solid contracted volumes: During April-May 2025, NT2 witnessed weaker-than-anticipated revenue and volume, reaching VND 1.4 tn (-7% YoY) and 554 bn kWh (-25% YoY). Meanwhile, Qc will likely remain steady for the quarter (with 21% YoY growth), implying that NT2 might achieve a higher-than-expected 2Q25 NPAT. We estimate that it could achieve VND 200-250 bn (well above our previous estimate of VND 130-160 bn). Accordingly, we revise up earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026.

5M25 period saw a transition in the national power generation mix, with Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) favoring hydropower, which is more cost-efficient than thermal sources. Additionally, the recent 4.8% increase in EVN’s average electricity price is likely to boost its profitability in 1H25, strengthen the likelihood that EVN will recover forest environmental service fees for power plants, including NT2.

In May 2025, Hoa Sen Group (HSG) recorded galvanized steel sales of 157,000 tons, reflecting a 2.7% decline month-over-month (MoM) and a 13% drop year-over-year (YoY). The average selling price (ASP) remained stable at VND 20.1 million per ton. Monthly revenue reached VND 3.2 trillion, while net profit after tax (NPAT) came in at VND 104 billion, marking a 17% MoM increase. This improvement lifted the net margin to 3.2%, potentially driven by enhanced cost control and strong domestic market competitiveness of HSG’s products.

Vietnam Steel Sector Update: Total steel consumption in Vietnam for the first four months of 2025 reached 10.4 million tons, up 11.2% YoY, outperforming initial industry expectations. This growth was supported by robust public investment, a recovering real estate market, and resilient foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement. Notably, domestic galvanized steel consumption (excluding exports) surged by 36% YoY, indicating strong internal demand.

We reiterate our MARKET PERFORM rating on HSG. The target price is adjusted to VND 18,300/share (from VND 18,000/share), reflecting updated 2025 NPAT estimates of VND 701 billion, a 37.4% YoY increase (previously VND 604 billion).

VFS delivered 36,330 EVs for 1Q25, a decrease of 32% q/q and increase of 296% y/y.  Sales to related parties (including Xanh SM, FGF, and others) account for 21% of all Q1 deliveries. Year to date, VFS has delivered 44,700 EVs to the domestic market. Lower-priced VF3 ($13,000) and VF5 ($22,300) were the bestselling models, accounting for 68% of sales volume. The top 3 models (VF3, VF5, VF6) account for 80% of sales volume.

With its target of at least doubling sales volume recorded last year, which translates to around 200,000 cars for the year, the company is broadening product lineup into commercial vehicles and has begun taking pre-orders for the Green series, a dedicated lineup tailored for transportation use cases and introduced an electric school bus and an electric minivan model in May.

Based on Vietnam Registration data, VinFast market share of overall auto sales increased to nearly 40% in Q1’25 from approximately 20% last year. The company expects ASP to remain under USD 20,000/unit, with a lower-priced model contributing 50% to total sales volume. Most of the sales will originate from Asia, with North America and Europe contributing less than 2% of total sales.